Jesse Biddle rated #60 and Ethan Martin rated #80 by mlb.com (Jonathan Mayo)

MLB.com released their Top 100 prospects tonight.  Two Phillies made the list as well as some former Phillies, they release their org Top 20 next week.  (the reports are all free at http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/)

60. Jesse Biddle

80. Ethan Martin

Former Phillies:

6. Travis d’Arnaud

27. Jonathan Singleton

89. Jarred Cosart

 

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

65 thoughts on “Jesse Biddle rated #60 and Ethan Martin rated #80 by mlb.com (Jonathan Mayo)

  1. How does Mayo rank Martin ahead of Morgan? I don’t have enough knowledge of other systems to know if that’s where Martin fits relative to all prospects, but Mayo loses credibility with me for not having Morgan ahead of him.

    1. Stuff over stats. They are pretty close in my book. I am not sure I would consider either a top 100 prospect unfortunately. They are behind Quinn and Joseph on my list.

  2. I don’t think its a slight against Morgan, noone has him in any top 100 lists. I think Mayo just really like Martin for some reason.

    1. And hey, look at the catchers in front of Joseph on the list. Until you get to D’arnaud and Zunino at 1 and 2, none of them really hit better than Joseph when you take age/level into consideration. The guy in front of him was the same age in AA and OPS’d under .600.

  3. I really like Martin. If he can be consistent and pitch like he did in the Trenton/Reading playoff game, he is a top of the rotation starter. He has the potential to be really good and he has flahsedf it. It is just a matter of can he do it consistently. (which is the case with most prospects so it isn’t like I am saying anything earth shattering here)

    To see him ranked above Cosart is interesting. Maybe the Phillies knew or saw something in Cosart and decided to “sell high” on him.

    1. I think you’re giving Amaro too much credit. Plus, this is just one ranking, and all of the other rankings had Martin way lower.

  4. *** Spoiler Alert*** The Baseball America Top 30 (11-30)

    Here’s the list…

    11. OF Larry Greene (WPT)
    12. RHP Shane Watson (GCL)
    13. RHP Phillippe Aumont (LHV/PHI)
    14. C Sebastian Valle (LHV)
    15. 2B Cesar Hernandez (LHV)
    16. 3B Mitchell Walding (WPT)
    17. RHP Mitch Gueller (GCL)
    18. LHP Austin Wright (CLR)
    19. RHP Kenny Giles (CLR)
    20. RHP Justin De Fratus (PHI)
    21. RHP Tyler Cloyd (PHI)
    22. C Cameron Rupp (CLR)
    23. RHP Brody Colvin (REA)
    24. OF Zach Collier (CLR)
    25. OF Aaron Altherr (LAK)
    26. OF Tyson Gillies (REA)
    27. OF Dylan Cozens (GCL)
    28. OF/2B Andrew Pullin (GCL)
    29. OF Kyrell Hudson (LAK)
    30. RHP Kyle Simon (REA

      1. They did give him “best arm” in the outfield. Maybe whoever saw that saw something else they really liked and projected from there.

    1. The things that stick out to me are:

      1. Kyrell Hudson made the list
      2. Mitchell Walding is ranked higher this year, than last
      3. Kenny Giles is ranked ahead of De Fratus
      4. Tyler Cloyd too high on list
      5. Kelly Dugan didn’t make the list
      6. Andrew Pullin was recognized (pleasantly surprised)

      1. You’re right about Walding. Scouts must really see something there.

        I’m really surprised by Dugan not making the list, but maybe I should not be. He’s looking like a corner OF and his bat may not play there. I personally think there’s hitting projection to make, and I have no gripe with people having him even in the late teens.

        One thing I think is that we’re all quite spoiled by Chase Utley. Cesar Hernandez is a nice 2B prospect who had a good year in AA as a 22 yr old in 2012, and we barely give him a mention. Yet we get all excited about Andrew Pullin, because he played a handful of games at 2B in the GCL and might hit for some power, (not to knock you or Pullin at all, I have him at 27, personally). BA may be high on Cesar at 15, but I think I’m probably low at 25 for no good reason other than he’ll likely never hit many homeruns – but only 8 qualified big league 2B OPSed higher than his 2012 mark of .733. He’s good with the stick and he can run and play at least a passable 2B, and he’s going to play 2013 as a 23 yr old at AAA.

        That’s it, I’m finding a way to move him up a couple spots.

        1. On Blue claws blog, they interviewed Matt Forman. He only mentioned Kelly Dugan as a 1B prospect. It seems that from their perspective, he is a first baseman, and he has to hit for more power to be considered a prospect. I think if they considered him a true corner OF prospect, he would have made it.

          1. I see that. Could be a mis-speak I guess, but it really sounds like exactly what you say – either scouts or the Phils may have already concluded he won’t make it in the OF. Not sure why, if the Phils are resigned to it, they would keep him out there after they pushed Chris Duffy back to CLR, other than maybe to try to prop up his value. Could be Forman and scouts think he can’t stick out there and the Phils haven’t given up.

            If he’s stuck on 1B, that would be a bummer, as his bat is not looking like it will play there.

        2. That does not surprise me. He had a really good year for his development IMO. He showed plus defense while switching positions and we all understood that it was a tough league to throw a HS player in as their first pro experience. Quinn showed he was a top prospect with his great performance, though by holding his own Walding justifies a spot in this range (fringe top 20). I like him more than Pullin. Much more projection with his defense and power.

    2. I guess the things that stick out to me are:
      Hernandez – they must really like the hit tool
      Walding – scouting reports have to be good
      Cozens – they seem low on him (though this is just one writer’s list and Callis said in a recent interview that Cozens is his breakout pick)
      Hudson – though with the arm and speed he is a good defender in center and if he can hit that is a pretty good player

    3. Really no one has a problem with Altherr above Gillies and Cozens. Altherr has crawled through the system (he’s at least one level below where he should be) has never really had better the a meh season and doesn’t have any tool that makes one stand up and take notice.

      1. I’m with you on Altherr vs. Cozens. Gillies is a big injury flag, so that’s not beyond reason I guess, though I have Altherr out of my top 30.

      2. Nope, Altherr has all of the tools of Gillies plus some and no injury history. Altherr should be able to stick in center but most certainly can play right. He is a 70 runner with probably 60 raw power but it plays more in the 40-50 range, but he has shown it in spurts (he hit multiple HR in a short WBC qualifier stint against superior competition), the strikeout rate is a bit concern but he does walk. He also has a great arm. In general Altherr is considered if not the best pure athlete is the system, at least #2 behind Quinn. Still high risk but he is on the same development path as Collier, and add better years at LKW then Collier did in 2011.

        1. Now that he is entering his age 22 season at A+ (unless he is double bumped which he hasn’t earned) I have little hope of him developing in game power. The stats and early scouting don’t really support 70 speed. And a seventy speed is pretty meaningless when you don’t have on-base skills. The Phillies thought so highly of his ability as a centerfielder they toyed with moving him to third base. I know he was raw when they drafted him but it seems like he has been around forever and still hasn’t made A+. Collier can at least say that his development was retarded by injuries which are hopefully in the past and showed flashes in AFL..

          1. Toying with moving him to third could also mean they thought he might speed through the system with less guys blocking his progress if he could cut it at third. Doesn’t have to mean they didn’t like him in CF.

            1. I agree with that. A healthly Gillies probably has a better speed grade that Altherr, but “Healthy Tyson Gillies” is a rare bird.

            1. I don’t necessarily agree with the 70 speed tool either, but I can see why Matt would estimate that number. Altherr does have usable ‘game speed’. The guy has stolen 80 of 99 SB attempts for his career.
              That, and the ability to play CF, would lead you to believe the guy has speed.

            2. SB% is great but does not necessarily translate into speed (nobody would give Utley a 80 speed despite being the all-time leader in SB%). I have seen scouting reports say Altherr has plus speed but never have I seen plus-plus speed. so I’d say 60 is probably a better grade than 70. His hit tool looks to be around 45 at best right now and his power the same or a little less. If he was a teenager in A-ball I’d say there is still a lot of room for growth but he is getting a little old for me to see him as more than a very outside shot at being a ML regular.

            3. I’d say that BA’s ranking of #25 in the system, is in agreement with your assessment of his abilities.

            4. I’d still say Gillies and Cozens both have higher upsides and a greater chance of reaching those upsides than Altherr.

            5. I guess it depends how old those scouting reports are, he didn’t have 70 speed when he was drafted but he ran a 6.5 60 last spring which would put him into the 70 range.

            6. Everyone so quick to discredit the athletic ability of Altherr but rush in to defend Gillies. I know there’s a certain homerism that goes with Gillies but they do have a very similar skill set. With the major injuries to Gillies hamstrings I can assure you that his speed is no longer what it was prior.

          2. He had a pretty up and down year last season. Maybe their scouts saw him during the good times and/or think he can get more consistent. He had a terrible May and a pretty weak August, but in April, June and July he looked like somebody to keep an eye on.

    4. One thing I like about the BA list this year, is the exclusion of future middle relief prospects. The lowest upside guy is #30, and even De Fratus is rated #20, after the ‘Closer’ prospects. This list is better than Sickels’.

  5. I know he’s only a pen guy, but one prospect who really has come out into prominence is Kenny Giles. Plus K stuff and seems to have a decent feel as to where it’s going in the K zone. Hope he gets through two levels this year and can make an impact sooner than later :)

    1. I don’t get the Kenny Giles love. I’ve yet to read even one good thing about his secondary pitches and his control needs work. Does anybody know anything about his breaking ball or something?

      1. I recall reading on Blueclaws blog, Mickey Morandini. Said he had a devastating “Forkball”. Later I read somewhere they were making him concentrate on locating the fastball, and not using the Forkball.

            1. Close…The forkball differs from the split-fingered fastball, however, in that the ball is jammed deeper between the first two fingers. The result is that the forkball is generally thrown slightly slower than the splitter, but will have more of a “tumbling” action akin to the movement of a 12–6 curveball, as it will drop off the plate before it gets to the catchers mitt.

          1. The forkball is no longer in vogue and hasn’t been in general use for at least 25 years (showing my age here, but when I was a youngster in the 70s, there were forkballers and some were left in the 80s, but after that, it’s hard to recall any decent pitcher who threw one). It was replaced by the splitter which has also fallen mostly out of use because, IMHO, it causes shoulder problems. It seems, in the last 15 years or so, use of the forkball and splitter has been replaced by the cutter (a pitch I had never even heard of 15 years ago) and more advanced versions of the change-up which give the ball a more pronounced drop and make it move much like a splitter (see Ryan Madson).

            1. While I am not a fan of the splitter for pitchers who have good arms, I would definitely think of having borderline prospects experiment with it to save their careers. For example, if I were the Phillies, I would strongly consider having Justin Friend and Tyler Cloyd learn the pitch – if mastered, it could change the trajectory of their careers overnight. That’s what it did for Bruce Sutter and Mike Scott (a pitcher much like BJ Rosenberg with a good fastball, but no dominant secondary pitch – the splitter made Scott one of the elite pitchers in baseball for a good 3 or 4 years – although he was good at scuffing the ball too, which helped a lot).

  6. In terms of upside Martin seems like the better prospect but that seems questionable MLB.com, i would take the lefty in morgan any day of the week.

    1. Yeah, that’s an upside pick for sure. Martin’s not even a lock to be a big league starter, whereas Morgan’s progress in 2012 looks like he’s on a much easier track to that outcome. Curious.

  7. If Martin does turn into a top/mid rotation pitcher, that was one heck of a return for a few months of Victorino.

      1. Oh and PTBNL Stefan Jarrin, grandson of Dodgers’ Spanish language broadcaster Jamie Jarron. Si. Bueno. Pero, los statisticos son malos por tiene 21 anos in AZL. Muy malo. Como se dice “My Spanish is rusty”? I’m pretty sure it’s not “Mi Espanol es rusto”.

    1. Oh yeah for sure. They have his fastball at 6/7 which is elite. It’s just the control that’s the issue, and a go to secondary pitch. He improved in those areas in 2012. I honestly think he has more of a ceiling than Biddle, just have to see if he can out it together.

      1. I don’t really see the argument for better than Biddle. Biddle pitches with a 6 fastball (the movement is key here) to Martin’s 7 fastball. But Biddle has a true plus breaking pitch while Martin has what profiles to be an average breaking ball and when it comes to changeups Biddle has him beat by at least 2 grades. Martin is quite good (and even as a back of the bullpen piece a great return for Victorino) but this ranking may be a bit optimistic.

        I would not be surprised to see Morgan on a Top 100 list, there are some definite backers out there. I have heard extremely positive things on Morgan from Keith Law, Jim Callis, and Jason Parks, I am not sure that it will translate to a spot on a list, but Morgan is a legitimate mid-rotation starter already in AA. I am not sure why Mayo is down on him, I agree with an argument by Eric Longenhagen that Morgan should at least be in the 8-10 range on the LHP ranking and that is a Top 100 guy. (there is an argument to be made that he is better than Biddle, I won’t make it, but personally I have moved Morgan up to #2 on my list)

          1. I would grade it that, he sits 97-99, touching 100. Some scouts who are hesitant to give out 80s would likely only give it a 70, either way it is special.

            1. I recall a night last summer where one of the players on twitter said he rung up the last guy on 3 FB that the stadium gun clocked at 100 each. Yeah, it’s a stadium gun, but still.

  8. We all agree that Martin has a higher ceiling than Morgan due to his outstanding fastball. The question is whether his control will continue to improve enough for him to make it. Morgan is much more of a certainty to make it. Reading the overall top 100 list sure does point out how so many teams have pitching prospects just like we do, only better. Many of them won’t make it unfortunately.

    1. The Hudson inclusion does surprise me though… Funny, when I saw him in spring training last year, I really expected a break out season for him because he looked so good. I thought the same thing with Altherr (and Eldemere….oops) who had moments and has lots of ability but I’m not sure. Its certainly time for these guys to step up or be passed.

      1. Hudson’s BA increased drastically right before he was injured, had he continued the season he would have had a break out season I believe. You’re right, these men do need to step it up this year.

  9. I thought Martin had a plus breaking pitch and another average pitch to go with his plus fastball. I thought control was really his ony issue and if you believe his time with the Phillies is his future projection I could see the high ranking.

    Some scouts may see Morgan as having an unexpected good year. The may think his improved stuff, which is really rare for a college player to gain velocity, will not play this year. Though he does not have the ‘Ace’ upside, Morgan does seem a safer pick that Martin to be a quality starter.

    I figured Biddle out of the Top50 and actually even 60 is higher than I expected. I could see Biddle being the only Top100 from the Phillies around the 80 area. I could see Joseph, Morgan, Martin close. Quinn and Tocci are too young and were not drafted in the Top10.

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