Reader Top 30 #16 – Justin De Fratus

Throwing this up early to start the discussion now.  Cameron Rupp added to appease Brad.

List so far:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle

Here is the compiled spreadsheet of all rankings out so far https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

59 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #16 – Justin De Fratus

  1. Collier again. Former first-round pick hitting his stride.

    Not sold on Wright yet. College pitcher who dominated high school kids in 2011, and then put up an average line in Clearwater where he was still a little old for his league (a year older than Collier).

  2. I would go Austin Wright here, but I don’t have any objections to Collier, DeFratus, Gueller or even Cozens, who seems to be leading the vote right now. Any one of the 5 are legitimate choices for #16.

    1. It’s hard for me to vote for relief pitchers. I know they have value, but idk, guess I value upside more.

      1. I agree with you regarding the value of relief pitchers. That is why De Fratus is behind Wright and Collier on my list. Even if the relief pitcher is major league ready, there is only so much value there. Wilton Lopez, who is a team controlled, sucessful MLB setup man, was nearly traded for Sebastian Valle. De Fratus is worth less than that.

    2. Agree with your choice of Justin DeFratus especially if he makes a big impact with the big club in 2013. I believe proximity to the big show should have a role in our choices.

  3. Austin Wright please. I’m sorry but even if JDF contributes to the big league club this year he is going to do it as a non elite reliever. I just can’t put him over Wright.

  4. Gueller, the Cozens, then Wright to me. After that, it’s a real crapshoot.

    Maybe add Aaron Altherr? I could see voting for him somewhere in the 20s.

    1. Will do, just a question to others, would you like to see the polls really expand or limit it to one or two names a day. I have a whole list of guys that I can add if people want.

      1. I like the big list of names. Your only short 3 names (Gabriel Lino, Devi Grullon and Jose Pujols) from my personal top 30. In addition, I’m sure many would like to see Altherr, Simon and Knigge added.

  5. Its time for the falling star to right himself. He is the man with the biggest upside of anyone left…Brody Colvin. This is his year for a breakout season.

  6. Voted Guellar here based on size, FB velocity and scouting reports of exceptional athleticism. Hope to see him take a giant leap this season. I do like De Fratus to contribute to a better pen but I have trouble voting him here as a 7/8 inning reliever. Wright is a close call here but I’m thinking he’s a reliever in the long run. Guellar just seems to have more upside.

  7. DeFratus for me. I know relievers have little value but I really hated watching the Phillies lose games in the 8th inning and then in extra innings because of crappy bullpen guys.
    I think Defratus could be a quality setup guy and that is worth about $4M (WAR seems useless for relief pitchers so I will use another method of value, salary.)
    A 4th-5th starter is about the same so that is how I valued him above Colvin and Wright on the pitching prospects.

    Also I certainly agree with the overall Top15 as I had 14 of the 15 in my rankings (after May and Bonilla were traded). I did not rank Watson since I want to see him vs professionals before ranking against others but, who rightly should be in the Top 15.

    1. I’m a De Fratus myself. A bird in hand is worth 20 in the bush. IMO, Justin will be making an impact on the Phillies this year. The other guys might make an impact. I’ll take the will over the might.

    1. I have Diekman in mine also, though I’m not quite sure where to put him exactly. I don’t see much difference between him and De Fratus as I think he’ll be able to get righties out if he improves his control.

  8. I went DeFratus. My belief is that middle relievers, generally, are underappreciated here. If DeFratus can pitch in the 7th and 8th this year, it’s worth quite a bit (to me).

    Didn’t Tommy Hansen (SP) go to the Angels for Walden (RP) this offseason?

    1. If you are trying to use Tommy Hanson to prove your point, he doesn’t work. This isn’t three years ago. Tommy Hanson is a HR machine, that can’t throw more than 5 innings. He is Joe Blanton, with more K’s and more walks.
      And Walden makes league minimum.

    2. Hanson is a walking injury, his shoulder is shredded, what used to be plus velocity is now minus and his control is gone. Then as anon said there is a 4 million dollar difference in salaries

  9. G. Lino will need to get some love soon. I have a feeling he’ll be one of the biggest movers this time next year. His August production is something to dream on.

  10. Justin De Fratus. Until his injury year, he put up amazingly consistent FIP stats, low BB, high K, low HR, high ground ball rate, and good traditional stats ERA H+B/IP. He could be a closer some day.

  11. I’ll try to start building a case for Dugan in the Top 20. Let’s remember he was the top pick of the 2nd round in 2009 for the Phils. A rocky start with injuries but last year he amassed 498 PA’s hit .300 with a .380 OBP and a .857 OPS.

    in total he has 976 PA’s with .292 avg/.370 OBP/.799 OPS and still 22 y/o. I am curious to see if they double jump him to Reading this year and if he can maintain that type of offensive production or even improve upon it.

    1. Guys who were drafted out of HS with Kelly Dugan were college draftees last year. What Dugan did last year in LowA, was not that impressive. He’s at least one year behind anyone in his HS draft class, who is considered a prospect. For perspective: class mate, B Colvin was in AA, two level ahead of him last year.

      1. Drafted high with 0 performance to back it up sure I would agree. Howard completed LKW at age 22 and posted 280/367/828. Kelly bested him in all 3 categories at age 21.

        Now I don’t dare say Dugan will be RH they’re not the same player but of the position players left on the board I think he is ahead.

        1. .391 BABIP makes it very difficult to assess Dugan’s performance. While I don’t believe in completely disregarding BABIP, I think we should discount his performance at least a little.

  12. I went JDF. It’s crazy looking at that list. I could have voted for like 6 people there and felt totally ok with it. Say what you will, at least the Phillies system is deep with C level prospects. Which is more then we could say in the past.

    1. I agree with this 100%. And I also went with JDF because I have hope that he could be a closer someday. Probably Wright will be next, but the list is so up in the air at this point, I could vote for someone totally different tomorrow.

  13. Went JDF due to proximity. Like all the others as well as it is getting more difficult to determine who should be ranked higher. Think Colvin is getting no love, but has all the tools and should be ranked soon. Hoping for a big bounce back year from him.

    1. I was just looking at Colvin. Here’s an interesting comparison with a Clearwater teammate:

      Austin Wright: 3.61 FIP / 3.91 SIERA
      Brody Colvin: 3.73 FIP / 4.24 SIERA

      Not too big a difference, and Colvin is a year younger.

      1. If Colvin had simply completed the year in Clearwater with similar numbers, he would be in the conversation now. It was the promotion and implosion that have removed him from most people’s lists. I’m not sure that’s entirely fair. I think he’s a long shot at this point to be a quality major league starter, but then the same can be said about Wright. Colvin even now clearly has a higher ceiling. Even if Colvin fails again as a starter this season, he still has plenty of time to reinvent himself as a reliever.

        1. Colvin is on my list, but not until the 20s. I think you can make a case for him pretty soon. He’ll pitch most of this year at 22 years old- age appropriate for AA.

      2. The problem with the comparison comes when you look at the BB/9 and K/9 numbers. Colvin’s never had above an 8 K/9 so I just don’t see the upside there that others are seeing.

  14. I voted DeFratus again and it looks like he’s likley to win this one. However, the Phils just signed Durbin and that may cost DeFratus his spot in the big leagues to start the year. There will be serious competition for the 3 remaining spots (Juan Cruz, Horst, Stutes, DeFratus, Aumont, Rosenberg and maybe, but probably not, Schwimer). Durbin will need someone to be released from the 40 man roster. Robles is on there as is the Rule 5 guy but maybe not for long, unless they release Savery. They’ll also need a spot on the 40 man for the backup catcher. They just signed Betancourt who would allow the Phils to have Galvis play every day at LHV if they want to go that way.

  15. If De Fratus is any good, the Chad Durbin signing won’t hurt him. Stutes is coming off injury and wasn’t any good before he was injured. Schwimer isn’t any good. Cruz is on a minor league contract. If De Fratus can’t beat out Rosenberg for a spot on the big team, you don’t want him on the team anyway.

  16. I’m kinda surprised that Cozens is still on the board – nice power numbers, good bb%, even has some speed. Is his not-inconsiderable baggage dragging him down? I have to admit I’m a bit skeptical, but until more incidents pop up, I’m going to chalk up his getting kicked off the team as immaturity

    – Jeff

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