Reader Top 30 #13 – Shane Watson

Tyson Gillies takes the #12 spot midst some voting irregularities.  If your guy had not had someone speak up for him please do so that I can tell who is getting actual support.  By request I have added Franklyn Vargas, Kevin Brady, and Kelly Dugan.

List so far:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies

Here is the compiled spreadsheet of all rankings out so far https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc

72 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #13 – Shane Watson

    1. +1

      His performance in SS ball showed that the tools are there and he has some more than what was originally thought. Understand that the power did not show as much as some would like, but the plate discipline was better than thought and He is athletic enough to play the OF at least pre 30s.

    2. Not too hard to see, Gillies and Ruf are a bit puzzling to me personally but that is my evaluation process, Watson is an argument either way, Asche and Morgan had huge breakout years and leaped him, Quinn was behind him on lists last year and had the better year, and then you have the Martin and Joseph acquisitions. This is where I think the depth argument has legs, Greene is better prospect then he was a year ago, there are slightly more concerns about the power showing up in games, but he showed that he can play in the OF, is surprisingly athletic and fast (the kid has 50 speed on that frame, which is pretty impressive), and has a good ability to work counts and draw walks. The system didn’t graduate a ton of talent this past year, had some breakouts, and added a bunch of draft talent. The experts acknowledge there is talent in the system the question is how much does the risk with most of it decrease its value (hence the low system ranking)

      1. With regards to depth, I’m not sure Larry Greene falling to 13-14 is proof. I still have LGj at #11, which is the same place I had him last year. I just think he is falling because some don’t value him as high, because he didn’t show his reported power tool, his 1st year.
        I dont think the difference in depth shows until the 20s and 30s., where there are many “C” prospects. Last year, we were debating Carlos Tocci for the top 20. This year, there is no mention of Devi Grullon and Jose Puljos. Dugan and Rupp don’t even make my top 30, there are so many “C” guys.

      2. I’m still confused by the blind Gillies love. Injuries a real concern not only due to the fact that he simply can’t stay on the field but one has to think that they also took a toll on his some of his tools too, mainly speed. Not to mention a couple red flags in the character department as well. You can’t even make the excuse that he’s some 18 year old immature high school kid either.

        1. He’s definitely a question mark, but I get the fixation. His OPS was .822 in AA last season, despite all the injuries, the suspension and the controversy. He plays a premium position. I haven’t seen major warts in his game that would keep him from being a solid big-leaguer, aside from the inability to stay on the field. He’s like the TV show “Lost”: It teases you with its potential year-after-year, even as you become less certain about whether it will end well.

      3. My only apprehension in regards to Greene is that I’ve seen multiple writers on other sites assess him negatively. One of the guys on fangraphs, I think it was Mike Newman, said he was one of the most disappointing prospects he saw in person last year.

  1. Did I miss something? The poll below has Austin Wright winning by 39 votes. Not that I voted for either one. I saw some comments about invalid voting. Was someone stuffing the ballot box?

    1. Ditto on Shane Watson. I have JdF after him due to proximity and potential for high leverage innings. Then LGJ.

      I have Wright farther down. His K/9 wasn’t special, his BB/9 wasn’t great. He put up a 3.73 FIP in a pitchers’ league. He also had trouble against righties. I prefer Diekman and Colvin to Wright.

  2. LG for me here. I love the .373 OBP along with a .754 OPS in a non power park. He should start the year in LKW and hopefully we’ll see if his in game power starts to flash. I had LG around 17 last year and its nice to see he progressed up the rankings instead of down.

    I have Watson 14 on my board and look forward to the same progression for him up the board instead of down.

    The more I study prospects the more I believe in the second full season as the stronger indicator of who a prospect might become.

    1. I was torn between LG and watson here. I went LG because the full season stats were fairly impressive (he showed good OBP and doubles power for a 19 year old playing in that league) whereas Watson simply didn’t get enough work last year.

  3. I actually voted for Austin Wright the last 2 times and this time, but only voted once. I value a potential a lefty starter with Average-Plus stuff. At the very worst he can be a LOOGY as long as he keeps his bb/9 under 4. Not a believer in LG yet. He’s got all the tools and I think he can be really good, but he will likely be a late bloomer given he is just starting to focus all of his attention on the sport of baseball.

  4. Watson then DeFratus. After that I have Valle Cozens LGj Gueller and Wright, but I’m not sure about the order yet. I have Cozens ahead of LGj and I detailed why in the run-up to the top 30, but Valle is a hard one to place, as is Wright. I really don’t know that I believe in Wright as a starter, but for now, he’s starting and performing well. AA will be a big test for him, for sure.

  5. Went with Watson over LG.

    I wanted to go LG over Watson based on the metrics I usually prefer (age/level, position, pedigree, peripheral stats). What changed my mind were the scouting reports. I’ve heard a few people say LG looks unathletic in the field, may have issues with his weight, and that he’s lacking bat speed. I hope they’re wrong, but I’ve heard enough negative things to put Watson ahead of him, particularly given the good reports on Watson so far.

  6. I’m voting Wright for the first time. This is where I had him on my master list, although as I’ve been reading the arguments of other posters, I’m realizing I have some problems with my master list. I’ve got Larry Greene at 22, which is too low. I’ve been dinging him hard for K-rate and not passing the 1 XB-hit/10 AB hurdle, but others have convinced me that my XB-rate standard needs to be adjusted for a huge home park. I considered L Greene here and will have him in my top 15. For me, Valle is still a top-15 talent, although the BB-rate is scary. I have him around #15. I really like Pullin, but that assumes he can stick at 2B, which I really shouldn’t assume yet, so top 15 is too high for him.

  7. Lots of legit choices here. Wright, Valle, LGJ, Watson. I went for JdF because he deserves more support. After those guys I’d like to start voting for … Justin Friend! Not often you get a sub-one era.

  8. I don’t understand why Cozens has so many less votes than Greene. He seems to offer the same power that Greene does, with more in-game demonstration of power thus far, along with fewer Ks and a better chance of staying in the OF. He’s a year younger and a level below Greene, but that isn’t a big deal in terms of proximity when they are that far away and this is also Greene’s first season.

    1. Because the level of play in the NYPenn is significantly better than the GCL. Even with that difference in competition, Cozens didn’t outperform LGj.

      Larry Greene: age 19, wOBA .360, RC+128, BB 13.5%, K 25.7 %
      Dylan Cozens: age 18, wOBA .370, RC+134, BB 11.5%, K 24.0%

      Their numbers are virtually the same, and LGJ is playing at the more difficult level… and LGj had the better amateur pedigree.

      There is absolutely no legitimate reason why Dylan Cozens should be ranked higher than Larry Greene.

      1. Not sure I agree with you that LGj had the better amateur pedigree. Cozens had a character issue, but was quite highly ranked for his on-field abilities. LGj had a nice tag of “best raw power” in his draft, but he also played in a non-baseball powerhouse region and so there was less information about him against higher level competition.

        1. I based my pedigree statement on Baseball America’s pre-draft coverage. Larry Greene was rated about #75 in his national draft class.
          Compare: Watson #40 in 2012, Quinn #73 in 2011, Biddle about #118 in 2010. Andrew Pullin in the 200′s, and Z Green in the 300′s in 2012. Cozens was Unranked out of 500, in the country, in 2012.
          ESPN and PG were similar.

          No matter what scource you use, Larry Greene was more highly rated than Cozens was in his class.

          1. Agree with you on rankings, but Cozens went unranked in large part due to his character issue, (hitting his coach or maybe as far as beating up his coach, don’t recall how it was characterized), and possibly in part due to his footbal commitment, but I don’t think that was that big a deal. If you think he’s still got character flaws, that’s fine, (I don’t worry about it until it happens again, personally), but to say he doesn’t have a good pedigree, (and arguably better than LGj), I’d still disagree with. If you’re only looking at the rankings, then you’re statement is true.

            1. I don’t want to argue over an arbitrary pedigree grade on either player. I just don’t think there is any legitimate justification for Cozens being ranked ahead of Larry Greene.
              The only argument for Cozens, is that he ran into 3 more fastballs for HRs than Larry Greene did. Larry Greene makes up for that, by having a better BB/K ratio than Cozens.

            2. Athleticism of Cozens is displayed in his 9 SB, (against GCL pitchers and catcher, so take it for what it’s worth), which is essentially an indication to me that he’s got some mobility in that big frame. I don’t think Greene doesn’t, but I’ve heard Cozens knocked in comparison to Greene for being projected to play defensive end instead of linebacker in college, which to me is only a superficial argument – was Cozens going to play in a 3rd down pass rush role? Was LGj going to stick at linebacker? etc.etc.etc. Anyway, I know you didn’t make that argument, so I’ll move on.

              Additionally, Cozens ISO was about 70 pts higher than LGj. That’s a big gap, even if you account for the difference in the difficulty of the league, which I admit is real. I don’t doubt LGj – In fact I have them back to back in my rankings, if that’s any indication of how close I think the two are right now. I’d agree that anyone looking at LGj’s season and saying he didn’t hit enough HR and dropping him ten spots below Cozens for that reason is probably out of line, but I think the case can be made that they are very similar prospects.

            3. I already posted their wOBA’s, which already considers stolen bases and extra base hits. The fact that their wOBA is silmilar, even though Cozens had more SBs and Hrs, shows that those differences are not a significant difference maker when assessing their offensive production.
              Like what was stated below, LGj was a 19 year old with no professional experience, facing College pitching. While Cozens was an 18 year old HS player, facing High School pitching. That is a big difference, and their numbers are the same.

            4. The reason Cozens’ wOBA was only 10 points higher was his BABIP was .321 while LGJ was at .378. You can’t dismiss the difference in power. Cozens’ ISO was the same as Paul Konerko. LGJ had the same ISO as Jose Altuve.

            5. Ridiculous.If you want to argue BABIP over 180 PAs, then argue it. But BAPIP isn’t a componentof wOBA and the fact that Greene’s #s are over almost twice as many PA’s, makes his #s more valuable.

            6. I don’t have a dog in this fight – I don’t really feel qualified to have much of an opinion about players in short season ball.

              But you make a mistake that is pretty common. For BABIP, at least the way that Brad is using it, sample size cuts the other way. The point is that BABIP illustrates why the SSS BA advantage that Greene has is likely illusory. If one deploys BABIP to discount differences in BA, the fact that the sample size is low HELPS the argument. (There are arguable counters of course – if, e.g., Greene had a higher line drive rate that would undercut Brad’s argument. I haven’t looked at the LD rate to see if that is true.)

              I’m not saying that that makes your conclusion wrong, or even necessarily makes you wrong on this particular point. (My response I guess would be that, for reasons of level of play and sample size, not a whole lot of weight should be placed on either player’s numbers, including Cozen’s HR advantage).

            7. FYI – I seem to recall when we did head to head arguments in late December that they had similar LD rates. I’m not going to look for it, though.

            8. Another FWIW – LGj had 2-3 months of professional coaching/extended spring/instructs in summer/fall 2011 and I guess 3 more months in the spring of 2012 before he started his pro career. Cozens was probably still recovering from his grad party. Which I’m sure was a blast with that fat bonus check.

              Anyway, I see your arguments, I’m just not convinced they prove your statement that “There is absolutely no legitimate reason why Dylan Cozens should be ranked higher than Larry Greene.”

      2. Cozens is 16 months younger than Greene. I don’t see how there was much difference in competition relative to their age. The NYPL doesn’t get the high end college pitching prospects. They usually start in full season ball. Took a quick look and literally no college pitchers drafted in the top 60 went to NYPL in 2011. Two guys between 60-100 went there and threw a total of 30IP. The guys in the NYPL are more seasoned for sure, but there’s not much of a talent difference. In fact, you could argue between the latin american players and the top HS picks, the GCL is superior from a talent perspective, just more raw.

        Also while Cozens may not stick in RF, at the moment he’s playing the more valuable position. I have Cozens one spot ahead of LGJ.

      3. I think those numbers are making the case for Cozens he has slightly better numbers a year younger. While I agree that the competition in the NYPL is better there is not a harder league then the GCL to perform in. 12 o’clock noon gametime infront of virtually nobody is brutal.

    2. I have Cozens much farther behind for a couple of reasons. I am scared that he is already getting the stiff tag, big 6′ 6″ guys who are stiff are going to not handle off speed pitches well. I also think that Greene is the better athlete with a better chance to stick in the field long term (Cozens is in RF to Greene’s LF on arm strength not ability to stay in the OF). Greene has a better BB% against more advanced pitchers (the college pitchers are all in the NYPL not the GCL)

  9. I voted Watson, because he’s the only guy on here that I couldn’t tell why he won’t be a valuable major leaguer. Comparing recent draftees with mid-level prospects, for me at least, it’s what you don’t that tips the scales.

    I ding Wright a lot for his control issues. You have to squint real hard to see a guy who can be a positive contributor in a decent rotation, which, without high-leverage stuff, leaves you with a middle reliever.

    I have always been partial to Dugan, but it’s hard to get over his k/bb rate.

    Finally I agree that I don’t see much difference between the profiles of Cozens and Greene and given Cozens’ in game power, I would lean to Cozens in a head to head discussion.

  10. The only argument I can see for Cozens over Greene is defensive value. Greene might have to move to 1B and Cozens might stick in RF. Although it might be possible that Cozens won’t stick in RF either. I like Greene for showing about equal performance at a higher level, and because I think his power tool could show up more next season and really raise his profile.

  11. I voted DeFratus yesterday but had a change of heart and went with Watson today. It looks like DeFratus won’t be anything more than an 8th inning guy which is still valuable but not worthy of this spot. Watson with LGJ next for me.

  12. Reader Top 30 #13

    Shane Watson 28.91% (74 votes)
    Larry Greene Jr 18.75% (48 votes)
    Justin De Fratus 17.97% (46 votes)
    Sebastian Valle 10.94% (28 votes)
    Austin Wright 10.55% (27 votes)

    Snapshot: 2:51

    1. Reader Top 30 #13

      Justin De Fratus 27.22% (95 votes)
      Shane Watson 24.93% (87 votes)
      Larry Greene Jr 17.19% (60 votes)
      Sebastian Valle 10.03% (35 votes)
      Austin Wright 8.88% (31 votes)

      Snapshot: 5:48

  13. I voted Greene because I think he will make a big jump this year. I believe he will remain in the OF. I figured he would be very raw with poor pitch recognition and have to move slowly through the system. I really like that he continued to be patient and hit well while not hitting HRs.

    I am more impressed with my his approach (purely guessing from his numbers, not any real information) than anything else. I think the power will come but the approach (which is what separated Singleton than any generic power hitter) makes me think he can become special.

    I really have no issues with Watson. He should be excellent, with two plus pitches already.

  14. GeneralDisc: CSN:Bottom-line: Phils saw their team on-base percentage drop in 2012 for the fourth straight year, to .317. The approach didn’t change and the Phillies were a mediocre offense. They were 24th in walks. Four of the top five teams in walks made the playoffs last year, as did six of the top nine.
    Phillies’ team OBP by year
    2007: .354
    2008: .332
    2009: .334
    2010: .332
    2011: .323
    2012: .317

    1. A full season of Utley and Howard might have improved that number to some degree and Ben Revere should help them improve there also. Ruf holds a MiLB career of .383 OBP/.903 OPS if just some of that can translate to his big league career they should improve.

      In the end tho it’s their pitching that will need to vastly improve…

  15. I’m new to this site but have been on many other sites. It’s disappointing to see the actions of a few spoil it for so many fans of the site. Case and point …De Fratus no more than 30 votes until today with very little talk about him.. yeah right

    1. It’s not the actions of a few. It’s one guy. Of all the causes in the world to fight, he chooses to waste his life harassing a minor league baseball site.
      Small.

  16. I voted for LGJ. I don’t think you will offend more than one person taking the person who finishes behind JDF.

  17. I also went with Watson.

    The ballot stuffer is easy to ignore, he is obvious in his voting patterns anyway.

    Matt, in my opinion you should please feel free to just declare the real winner and leave the thread open in case there’s enough people to set the record straight in the comments.

    Perhaps the best answer is to require logins, that way even if our poor, pathetic loser decides to make multiple logins it will at least slow him down and make him even more obvious than he already is.

    Thanks again for managing this site, it’s been great. One saboteur, try as he might, can’t ruin things for me. I can help you positivey identify him if you like. I will email you. I have the tech ability to do it with 100% certainty. I’m sure if someone tracks him and publishes his info he will regret his vain efforts. I’m sure a few of your fans would enjoy paying him a personal visit! No doubt he is terrified of the thought of being outed publicly but I will leave that up to you. Street justice is rarely pretty.

    Thanks again!

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