102 thoughts on “General Discussion – Pre-Reader-Top-30-Weekend Edition

  1. Someone who’s not getting talked about enough, in my opinion, is Jose Pujols. He has a prototypical frame for a power-hitting corner outfielder, along with massive potential. Can’t wait to see how he does.

    1. That’s what Mets fans say on their prospect site every year, “Why aren’t we talking about Sidd Finch?”

      Sidd is not only the greatest pitching prospect ever, Sidd Finch is the best prospect ever, but he’s not getting any attention. Never made the Baseball America Top 100 list, which is amazing given how easy they put someone on it.

    2. Until he actually gets state side and we can see how he does against other US prospects, it is really tough to gauge him.

      I don’t think he is anywhere near a top 30 prospect at this time. (Floor way way too low and no reasonable way to judge ceiling.)

      However as a Top 20 Intl league signing he may end up being a much hotter prospect in a year or so if all goes well.

      1. And that is an intelligent position. Sign a Pujols and a Grullon every year, and sooner or later we’ll have something to really talk about. Until then, it’s the effort we can applaud, not the unknown prospect.

  2. I noticed on BA they have an article about Collier and the AFL. Can anyone summarize the gist of it?

    1. “He showed me a lot in the fall league,” said Dusty Wathan, who managed Collier in Arizona and could again at Double-A Reading in 2013. “He not only hung with guys that were maybe a little more advanced than him, but he actually had a lot of success.

      “He swung the bat well, ran well and played well at three outfield positions.”

    1. The Marlins want the Rangers farm.

      It’s full of $3mil dollar prospects surrounded by $2mil dollar prospects surrounded by million dollar prospects.

      1. Phillies could get Stanton, but the price would be steep.

        Lee and $20 milliion to the rangers for Mike Olt, L. Martin and J. Alfaro.
        Olt, Martin, Valle and BP arm go to the Marlins
        Phils get Stanton

  3. Miguel Sano
    Age 19 (verified with DNA and bone scans)
    .893 OPS 28 doubles 4 triples 28 HR
    Reports from games in 2012 spoke of 500ft home runs hit by the young Mr. Sano who is already 6′ 3″ 195 lbs of athletic muscle and bone. He has been moved from SS to 3B where he is expected to remain and play in MLB.

    Those high rolling Twinkies in Minneapolis paid $3.15 million to sign Sano. You can watch that whole process in the fascinating documentary “Pelotero”. There are many teams mentioned in pursuit of Sano, as you should guess after seeing that bonus the Phillies were not one of them.

    This June marks an important anniversary in Phillies history: the twentieth year since the Phillies drafted Scott Rolen. His words about a “lack of commitment” to winning are beginning to ring true.

    Josh Hamilton was available for a song this winter and the Scammies pretended he did not exist. Instead they traded two pitchers to the Twinkies for a toothpick bat center fielder.

    1. Dave Montgomery promises to put the best team on the field. And so far he has been true to his word.

      1. The lack of commitment to winning seemed very obvious in the years 2007-2011. Losers only won 1 World Series and one other NL crown.

      2. Since the last out of the 2008 World Series was recorded the Phillies have NOT put the best team on the field and in fact they have become progressively worse each year.

        1. Wow so much wrong with this. Let’s just say that how you finish in the playoffs is not how you can measure team construction year to year. Regular season win totals increased every year after 08 until last year…

        2. The offense has been progressively worse since 2008 (actually it has been getting worse since 2007 where the team collectively hit .274/.354/.458), that can be attributed to general declines of Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Victorino. The pitching on the other hand has gotten progressively better. 2012 was the first year of major decline and there are many factors that can be attributed to that problem. I am going to use +/- runs scored/allowed because it gives a good indication of how good a team is.
          2008: RS – 799, RA – 680, + 119
          2009: RS – 820, RA – 709, + 111
          2010: RS – 772, RA – 640, + 132
          2011: RS – 713, RA – 529, + 184
          2012: RS – 684, RA – 680, + 4

          The 2011 team was the best one the Phillies have had because the pitching was dominant and the two WS teams where worse. The significant losses after 2011 where Roy Oswalt, Ryan Madson, and Raul Ibanez (and their replacements all outperformed them). Injuries took their toll on the team last year and you can blame them for not covering up their problems by signing Ramirez (who had a 5.4 WAR season after averaging under 1.5 WAR the previous 4 seasons, and the Phillies had Polance who had been averaging 2.8 WAR a season over the same time period). The Phillies gambled that even with injuries, their best team since 1977 could repeat as division champions, I think that is a good risk to take (if you want to blame anyone blame Victorino who lost 3.9 WAR and Halladay who lost 7.8 WAR, that is your difference between this season and the playoffs).

          1. “The offense has been progressively worse since 2008 (actually it has been getting worse since 2007 where the team collectively hit .274/.354/.458), that can be attributed to general declines of Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Victorino. The pitching on the other hand has gotten progressively better.”

            You started out so well!

            Then you ran out of facts and reached all the wrong conclusions.

            The offense has declined and the Phillies team success has tracked nearly perfectly with the decline of the lineup.

            If you can’t hit, you can’t win.

            After the quick exit from the 2007 playoffs Jimmy Rollins was quoted saying “I think we were tight.” Yeah, the lineup choked. The next year they did not. Then the decline really began and did so in progressive fashion underlined by Raul Ibanez’s second half of the 2009 season. The 2011 Phillies were the most boring 102 win team in MLB history. They were a mirage and fittingly lost 1-0 in Game Five of the opening round. The Cardinals vs. Rangers was a World Series to remember for a decade between two teams that could rake.

            The story of the 2012 playoffs was the same as most years. If you can’t hit, you can’t win.

            Pablo Sandoval underlined this with his brilliant three home run game off of three pitchers pitches. Proving vividly that everyone who subscribes to the old broadcast booth cliche “Pitching is 90% of the game” is in fact a mental defective.

            The Phillies will be a World Series threat again when they become a top scoring team again that can hit good pitching as they did in 2008 and 2009.

            1. How can you use the Giants as an example. They weren’t a good offensive team in the regular season they got hot in the playoffs. Seems to me like you’re making the argument that the team who plays the best in the post season will win the WS. Well duh.

            2. “The offense has declined and the Phillies team success has tracked nearly perfectly with the decline of the lineup.”

              Also the Phillies POSTSEASON success has followed the trend with the declining lineup. They got better during the regular season.

              And let’s take a look at the 08 team that won the WS. They won because their pitching performed had a 3.07 ERA in the post season as opposed to their season 3.88 ERA. Now let’s look at the offense. they scored 4.93 Runs/Game in the regular season and in the playoffs they scored 4.57 R/G. So the offense got worse in the Postseason and the pitching got way better in the post season which was the real reason they won the World Series in 08. Of course it didn’t hurt that the offense was good but really the Phillies had the benefit of hot pitching supplemented by good offense.

            3. AEC…man dude, you got a lot of pent-up something! Why not just relax and read a good book, like the ‘Biography of David Montgomery’?

    2. A song? $125 million is a song? Sounds more like the entiire Lennon/McCartney song collection with the Jagger/Richards collection thrown in for good measure.

      1. What year do you think this is?

        A-Rod signed for $250 million TWELVE years ago. Manny Ramirez signed for $160 mil the same year. Pujols is on a $240 mil contract. Prince Fielder is on a $214 million contract.

        MLB revenues have gone up EIGHT fold from twelve years ago.

        Do you need a translation for “EIGHT fold”?

          1. So?

            You’re committed to winning or you’re not.

            The Yankees history is littered with bad contracts, more of those than World Series titles.

            What is wrong with Aramis Ramirez’s three year $36 million contract to produce a near .900 OPS while playing 3B? The Phillies are not willing to get anywhere near the market price for MLB bats. That is a flaming non-commitment to winning.

            1. When did I say Aramis Ramirez’s contract was bad? Please remind me. Also, they just gave Cole Hamels a $144 million contract, that tells me they’re committed to winning.

            2. These arguments are so inane.

              First, they could not have had Josh Hamilton for a song, unless you define the term song as something having the value of the GDP of a third-world country. In fact, Hamilton is highly unlikely to be worth the contract that they are going to give him. Your efforts to be “scientific” by arguing that revenues have increased completely misses the mark. That’s not the issue. The issue is what is the player’s worth versus what he is going to be paid. Hamilton is going to get $125 million for 5 years. At $ 5 million per WAR, Hamilton, an injury-plagued 32 year-old, is going to have to average 5 WAR over the the next five years, at ages when a player’s value tends to decline most precipitously. Heck, even last year, when he hit a ton of home runs and was only 31, HE PLAYED TO ONLY A 3.4 bWAR – in other words, he did not even justify that contract in last year, so why the heck should they pay him that amount over the next five years when he is projected to get much worse as a player. It’s foolish.

              I think you think being a good franchise means that you are required to make stupid decisions and lose money intentionally. Only the Dodgers are going to do that and, they may have a good year or so, but I’ll bet they are going to fail pretty badly at some point in the not too distant future. Your reference to the Yankees is no longer applicable – they are trying to get within the luxury tax level in the next few years and have been even more penurious than the Phillies over the last few off seasons. So, in your world, I guess, the Dodgers are the only good ownership group and everyone else is cheap. It’s a ludicrous assertion, especially since the Phils are always in the top 3 in spending.

              As for the Phillies getting worse each year after they won the WS, we all know the post-season is a crap shoot – they were the best team in baseball in 2011, but they didn’t get the breaks. Unfortunately the best team rarely wins the WS. But in terms of wins, they improved EVERY SINGLE YEAR AFTER 2008, with the exception of last year. I expect they will improve again substantially this year.

              Look, there are a lot of legitimate things to criticize with the Phillies. Their payroll is not one of them, nor is their taking a pass on the bloated Hamilton contract. They believed that money can probably best be put to other uses and they are almost certainly correct.

            3. “Your efforts to be “scientific” by arguing that revenues have increased completely misses the mark. That’s not the issue. The issue is what is the player’s worth versus what he is going to be paid. “

              It’s called SUPPLY and DEMAND

              30 MLB teams, one Josh Hamilton.

              That’s how it works, every single year. MLB player salaries are greatly lagging MLB revenues. When that gets to a certain point the rubber band snaps and you get a strike and no baseball.

              Only a truly sick individual sympathizes with billionaires sipping gin and tonics at the country club. The kind of sick people who build death camps for human beings.

            4. Seriously, let’s all stop feeding the troll. Comparimg baseball owners to the Nazis is insulting, moronic, and outrageous – the handiwork of a perfect xxshole

            5. catch….he is the ‘Maximus Troller’, don’t believe I have ever seen anyone better at it. Shame, he does have intelligence.

            6. Yeah, unbelievable – since I am Jewish and many people in my family died in death camps he can officially go Xuck himself

            7. Excuse me?

              Is someone editing my posts again? I never wrote the word “Nazi” in any of my posts.

              Who trained you to think “Nazi” when you saw “death camp”?

            8. “Who trained you to think “Nazi” when you saw “death camp”?

              DEAR JACKASS – EVERY PERSON IN AMERICA, PERHAPS THE WORLD, THINKS “NAZIS” WHEN SOMEONE USES THE WORD DEATH CAMP. THE TERM HAS BEEN NEARLY SYNONMOUS WITH NAZISM AND FASCISM. THAT YOU INTRODUCED THIS CONCEPT INTO A DISCUSSION ABOUT BASEBALL CONTRACTS MAKES YOU A REALLY SICK AND DESPICABLE PERSON. PLEASE CRAWL INTO A HOLE AND DIE ALREADY

    3. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Phillies could get every good international prospect and top free agents every year. I envision a Baseball America top 100 with only Phillies prospects in it.

  4. Comment From Brian
    Does Roman Quinn hit enough to stay in the infield? What is his ceiling?
    1:14

    Mike Newman:
    I’m not sure what you mean by “hit enough to stay in the infield”. SS is the best spot on the infield for players who don’t hit. When I saw him play SS last summer, his SS play was a pleasant surprise. I like him quite a bit. By 2014, his hype might be Hamilton-ish, only Quinn is a better SS.

    1. Quinn’s numbers compare very well to Billy Hamilton’s at age 19, in Short season ball. OBP very close. BB% edge to Quinn. K% advantage to Hamilton. Hamilton’s steals were already on the ridiculous level, at that time though. Hamilton was 48 for 57 in SS. Roman Quinn was 30 for 36. Overall, very encouraging. Maybe Quinn follows Hamilton, and becomes a top 20 overall MLB prospect in two seasons.

      1. I think the Hamilton-level of steals in the minors are a combination of his unique abilities and organizational philosophy. Some managers don’t want as much running as other managers do. Quinn certainly has the potential, if he develops into a quality defensive SS and continues to progress with his switch hitting, to be a top 20 prospect. He has certainly shown nothing to date to say his potential is less than that. No guarantee he reaches what we see as his full potential, but what we know to-date is very impressive.

      2. If you get a chance could you compare quinns numbers with carlos correa[astros], adal modesdi [royals] , addison russell [A], and cory yeager [dodgers]. AB editor Jim Callis rated Quinn below those guys when answering a question about rating some young ss’s in ss and rookie lgs. Next thing I read Quinn was #2 in the phil’s top ten.I will be curious to see if all those ss’s are above Quinn, who is supposed to be around 50 in BA top 100. Is that showing weakness of the Phil’s? Or did he misspeak?

        1. Callis probably misspoke on Mondesi (though Callis is abnormally influenced by the size of a signing bonus) but the Athletic’s Addison Russell and the Dodgers’ Cory Seager both had great debuts and are younger than Quinn, who turns 20 on May 14th.
          .

          1. Mondesi might end up being the best of the bunch, he has pedigree (major league father and $2 million bonus from the Royals), he will stick defensively at short, and he hit .290/.346/.386 in the Pioneer league as a 17 year old.

            1. Thanks Anona and Matt. They are real high draft choices for big money. Your right Seager, Dodgers my mind changed it to Yeager, I never noticed. I figured Correa for sure wasn’t sure about others. They all could be before 50 I guess.

            2. I know who Mondesi is.

              You’re not seriously comparing that .386 slugging to what Russell and Seager showed? Those two put themselves into a higher level of prospect. You can start dreaming on them becoming .850 OPS MLB bats without being put on Thorazine.

              Suggest that for Mondesi and you’re playing basketball with Jack Nicholson in the Cuckoo’s Nest.

    1. I wouldn’t. I’m not crazy about Kubel and I think Kendrick is poised for a good year. Seems like a lateral move at best.

  5. I still think another OF is coming. Hairston is a possibility as is Delmon Young. A trade for Cuddyer looks less likely and a trade of Dom for Soriano should never happen and it won’t. RAJ is saying he wants a “depth” Outfielder which is a code for insurance in case Dom and/or Ruf don’t perform well. Hairston and Young would fit that definition.

    1. I prefer Hairston. They hit lefties at a similar pace, but Hairston is a better defender and can play all three OF positions and apparently second base. Also, don’t want the personality and baggage of Young on the team. Just my 2 cents.

        1. Delmon Young is a good bat for the playoffs

          Why would that sort of ability interest the Phillies?

    1. Anything that gets Nix out of starting 50% of games would be good for me. If Ruf does not cut it early we will see LOTS of Nix. Kubel is another platoon type and is relatively expensive but only for one guaranteed year. Kubel, Young, Soriano are all bad fielders.

      1. I don’t like the idea of Nix playing a lot either, but I’m not sure Kubel is the answer. Brown and Ruf are our two best offensive corner OFs and they both are best suited for LF (assuming Ruf can even play LF). Kubel would have to play LF too and he might be as bad as Ruf is out there. If you believe the defensive metrics, Kubel gives back just about all of his value on offense with his poor fielding. I guess you could try to get by with a Kubel/Revere/Brown outfield, but that’s probably going to be a disaster defensively.

        1. Nix actually hits righties adequately and is at least average defensively. He was hitting ok last year until he got hurt and had a decent year the year prior for Wash.

        2. Brown is not best suited to LF. He is a natural RF and tracks the ball much better in RF than he does in LF. LF has always been a bit of an adventure for Brown. I think the Phillies would get far more production from Ruf in LF than Kubel.

          1. Brown’s arm, which is fantastic, also plays better in right field. Last year at CBP I saw Brown gun down a runner from right with a rope that he threw on a line (no bounces) to the catcher. It was one of the best throws I have ever seen from the outfield – truly breathtaking – the type of thing you can only fully appreciate if you see it in person. Brown still needs to work on accuracy, but his arm strength from right is elite, and I don’t think that’s an exaggeration.

          2. RF might be his natural position but he doesn’t play it very well. He struggled tracking balls there too in the minors. I like Brown and hope he gets 600 ABs this year, but there’s not really any evidence he can play a passable RF.

            I’d rather give Ruf ABs than trade for Kubel too, but again there’s a good chance that most of his value at the plate is negated by awful fielding. It’s really rare for a player to move to a tougher defensive position AAA or big league level. If Ruf was capable of playing even below average defense in LF, he probably would’ve been playing there in the minors.

            1. Ruf was org filler (good filler but still filler) until this year.
              He was a good hitter but too old for every level. Though his BA and OBP were reasonable, his power was maybe average for a minor league 1B. I’d have compared him to an Andy Tracy type; pinch hitter, no real position guy. There was no real reason to try him at a different position where other players were being developed.

              Once he showed significant power while still maintaining his BA/OBP he was now an elite hitter and at a blocked (great contract for Howard btw) position. Despite the fact that he’d likely be a poor OF, the only way the Phillies are getting him on the field is in the OF or a Howard injury.

    1. Once Anthony Hewitt sets the HR record at Reading this year….the Phillies rating will soar to top ten. Happy New Year.

  6. Kelly Dugan interview (excerpts) from Phoulbalz:
    What is your workout routine like lately and how much time off from hitting do you take during the off-season? ——-I took about a month and a half off. I pretty much follow the program that the Phillies have set in place. I have a trainer and I follow the program. And I have a (batting) cage at my house and I’ve been working with an ex-Dodger, Reggie Smith. We’ve been hitting together here in the off-season. I regularly have some other minor league players over, Cody Decker and Jeremy Rodriguez, they come over here at the house and we take some hacks.

    – So, you’re working with players from others organizations. Are those guys you’ve played with in high school or against in the pro’s?——–Well, Jeremy played at my rival high school, Crespi High School, out here in California. Jeff Suppan used to play there. And we’re all hitting with Reggie and getting things going right now.

    – Typically, guys out of Class A Advanced or Double A, which are the two levels ahead of where you played last season Class A Lakewood, might have a chance to play in fall/winter leagues like the Arizona Fall League, or in the Caribbean. Is that potentially something you look forward to, in the coming seasons?——–Yeah. And I think that would be a great opportunity. I just hope, right now, I can build on last year and continue the momentum from that season and stay healthy and, you know, hopefully, after the season, I have to be mentally prepared to play in the fall, for a month, or so. We’ll see. I’ll be mentally ready for (something like that) next year. I’m looking forward to it, if I get the opportunity.

    – Other than hitting and working out, what do you stay busy with, either as a hobby or for fun, to occupy yourself during the off-season?—-To be honest, I don’t do much. I do some pilates. I do running. But, I’m an exercise geek. I like to switch it up a lot and do the stairs one day…but I don’t do a whole lot. I like to take little vacations. Over Christmas, we’re in Yosemite, with my family and my girlfriend, to do some hiking and holiday stuff. I love watching movies, ’cause my dad is a director, so I go to the movies a lot. We definitely try to get to the theater as much as we can

  7. The Braves are really going to be tough if they sign Bourn to a one yr deal. At this,point, that is very possible. Combine that with the fact that Washington is still trying to LaRoche and the division might be very tough.

  8. Where did you hear bourn will sign one year deal?? if that was true i believe the phillies would go three years for bourn at 15 per, so why would he do one year deal?? the thing i heard is that he wants 5 years or more, and no one will give him that, but three and i think a lot of teams are in on him.

    1. It’s the cost of the pick plus the big Boras contract. The only place that would make sense for a one yr deal would be back with the Braves. It’s the same situation for Lohse, Soriano, and LaRoche. Teams don’t want to lose their pick.

    2. Bourn is a good fourth outfielder.

      Any GM who would pay him $15 mil per year will soon be an advance scout for another team.

  9. Does anybody see rube trading brown and a pitcher for a healthy garza and soriano with money coming over? The cubs would save some money and get Dom brown for 5 years. I wouldn’t want it, but sometimes Ruben does some stupid stuff….

  10. anybody know how to notify Matt the beginning of the website is all garbled. Anybody else having same problem.

  11. Forget about Jason Kubel or Juston Upton…rather go for Adam Eaton. Dom Brown and a pitcher for him. He is a dynamo hitting machine.

  12. Not sure if anybody’s posted this, but RAJ tells the Inquirer he’s likely to head to Clearwater with the outfielders on the roster. He says they can platoon or show enough to win a full time job.
    Amaro: “The best-man-wins type of scenario can be created and likely will be created in spring training.”

    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Amaro-Phillies-probably-done-making-moves.html

    I’ve got to admit this makes me happy. I don’t like heading into the season with uncertainty, but I like the upside of Ruf and Brown more than the more expensive options left on the market.

    1. I always tell myself, but I never learn: never read the comments on that website.

      At this point it’s nice to hear that there are probably no more moves coming. It probably means we’re not trading for Wells or Soriano. I don’t want to see Brown platooning no matter what happens in Spring Training, but at least he won’t be wearing a Cubs jersey.

  13. todat Rube said he is not doe. He is looking fora orner outfielder. You can’t believe anything he says.

  14. Chooch Ruiz…will he be forever tainted in Phillies lore? Will the Phillies Wall of Fame allude him as it did the recent MLB Hall of Fame eligibles in 2013?

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