General Discussion – Holiday Edition

Wishing everyone a Happy Holidays! (or Halladays as Murray as said)  Here is your thread for the news over the holidays.  The Reader Top 30 will begin Monday January 7 and we will go 5 a week Mon-Fri followed by the Top 30s of the various writers here as well as a format for all of you to display your personal Top 30s.  Then we will be at Spring Training, and time to preview the season and make bold predictions of sleepers and breakout prospects.

Everyone have a safe and happy holidays and hope for a better year in 2013 for the Phillies both on the major league team and especially on the farm! (also whatever player you would like waiting in your stocking for the Phillies this year)

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

156 thoughts on “General Discussion – Holiday Edition

  1. All I want for Christmas (Prospect wise, not including Brown) is a year from Quinn that makes him a top 20 prospect in baseball. Is that too much to ask for?

  2. All I want for Christmas is for LG or Cozens to hit 20 home runs, Quinn to become a top 50 prospect, Franco to rake if and when he gets to Reading, and for someone new to jump out of no where and become a must watch. Is that too much to ask! Merry Christmas and be safe.

  3. For Phillies Phans to not be front runners, as Yankee Fans have been, and love and root for our team. and Ruff Playing Left Field as well as Greg “The Bull” Luzinski.

  4. I would like to see the guys who took steps forwards in 2012 keep up the strides they made (Martin, Morgan, Asche, Dugan, Collier). Most of all I would like to echo mcardin and say I would like to see someone make the jump from nowhere, it was awesome to watch Ruf, Asche, and Morgan force their way into the discussion in 2012.

  5. I would like to see Asche force himself to the bigs by the allstar break. Also to see Ruf and Brown play themselves into full time players by the end of the season. Special thanks to everyone who makes this sight rock, keep up the great work!

  6. Merry Xmas and happy new year.

    I’d like to see Pettibone in the rotation. Frandsen show he belongs in the show and a young of of revere, Ruf and Brown flourish. The final present a resurgent Doc!

    1. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.
      D &D (Dom and Darin) break out and be MLB surprises for 2013.
      BO’B take the Nitts to a Nat’l Championship…oops , sorry, wrong site.

  7. Christmas wishes:

    1.) Dom Brown is full-time RF with OPS of .850
    2.) Franco finishes season mashing in Reading
    3.) Asche earns September call-up
    4.) LGJ finds his power stroke
    5.) Tocci finishes season in Lakewood, swing begins to show power

    1. Add in:

      Biddle passes the AA test,
      Shane Watson has a Biddle like year at Lakewood.
      Andrew Pullin continues to hit and draw comparisons to Utley.

      1. Agreed, specifically on Pullin, who kind of gets lost in the mix with all those lower-level position players. A young 2B with a live bat is something to dream on.

  8. STL needs a first baseman, and has a surplus of outfielders. Ruf+Valle for Craig? Or try to get Freese? (Id rather get a quality 3b than an outfielder imo)

  9. I would want to see dugan and franco move aggressively with much success so we can get some dreamable position guys in the high minors. I would love to see those two hit AA and get it done. Also, with two drafts debuting last year i am wishing for several guys in the low minors to who are now moving to full season step up and jump into the serious prospect discussion

  10. Upton in RF; Asche begins to rake power w oba; all 3 Green(e)s stepping up to prized candidates; Wright to become super reliever; Biddle gains 2-3 mph on FB and change-up becoming superior; Morgan slipping through AA-AAA to Sept call-up; Pettibone replacing Lannan by midseason;Marting to gain command and candidate for #2-#3 in rotation;Aumont finding consistent release point;Adams gets beyond physical issues;Collier begins to find extra base power along w good oba;Dugan shows that being their first pick made sense yielding serious OF prospect;Ruf to play LF equivalent to the Bull, at least, and mash 30;JUSTIN UPTON in RF; the rookie class from 2011 excels, producing 6-7 superior prospects; Tocci gains 15 lbs w strength;we draft @ #16 and choose one of the best, player or pitcher who becomes our #1 by 2015. Etc. Etc.

  11. Holiday greetings to all and in particular those who operate this site and make it the forum that it is. Others have identified the prospects who would benefit by a timely intervention, divine or otherwise. On top of that, I hope that Michael Young tastes from the fountain of youth while in Florida and enjoys a year more like his 2011 and less like his 2012. I’d love to see the Phils succeed with a dumpster dive for someone like Brandon Webb who is one of the remaining unsigned names from the past seeking to make a comeback. Love to see him parley an offer into a back of the rotation slot leading to a 12 win season. It’s said this is the season of miracles so why not? Best to all.

  12. A holiday wish? That’s easy, back to the Series…. thanks to help from several young players (Dom, Ruf, Galvis, Pettibone, Aumont, DeFratus, and some surprise – Valle? Asche? Gillies? Morgan?).

  13. Domonic Brown, Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan, Ethan Martin Maikel Franco and Carlos Tocci to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton.

      1. Not so sure Florida wouldn’t take that deal if you switch Martin with Petibone. 3 young controllable arms almost in the show, plus a young RF and two decent prospects is a pretty good haul. Brown and Biddle is moer than the Mets got for the CY young award winner.

      2. Right now Miami definitely says no.

        Next winter?

        Depends on how those guys in that package perform this year. Stanton will be a year closer to free agency and extremely unhappy after the Marlins lose over 100 games this year. Stanton also begins losing value after next winter. The march to free agency comes quick and his contract will be bigger than what Pujols got.

        Rangers are not trading Profar.

    1. Even though that’s a lot of talent to give away, Florida could get one or two A+ prospects from another team for Stanton, and we have none to offer. Simple as that really.

      1. Biddle is a top 50 prospect so not many teams will have two ranked higher. Morgan could very well be a top 100 at some point this year. I don’t think you guys realize how much better the system is compared to last year. probably around 20-21.

        1. The problem is not the quality of such a package, but the practicalities of making such a deal. For a couple of reasons there needs to be no-doubt big name prospect, the first even the Marlins need people to watch their games and you have to sell them on a guy you got, the second is the GM, his job will forever tied to such a trade, when he is interviewing for his next job it is better to be the guy who whiffed on Profar or someone like that who everyone thought would be a star, than fail on a bunch of guys with much more risk and many ways to fail.

          1. I agree that there are teams that could offer superior packages, but that’s not a bad package. Does Stanton have 2 or 3 years left of arb

    2. Biddle, Martin, Franco, Tocci and Quinn get it done….but Stanton blows a knee that is already a bit tender and what do you have!

    3. No. You’re talking about a high-ceiling corner outfielder already in the bigs, two pitchers whose floors are in the middle of a big-league rotation (Biddle and Morgan), a young 3B with a big arm whose bat is already showing power and contact promise, and probably the most exciting minor to play in the system in a long time. Stanton’s a great hitter, but if you mortgage the future, who are you going to surround him with?

      1. There are always more prospects. We have not even begun to discuss Jose “Just call me Albert” Pujols.

        Ticketed for GCL this year according to Ben Badler.

        You don’t come across many just turned 23 year olds who can sanely spend the winter working on their Cooperstown induction speech.

        1. Jose “Just call me Domingo Santana” Pujols hasn’t taken an AB professionally. The guys you are talking about are, for better or worse, our most advanced prospects. Again, what’s the point of having a guy like Stanton if there’s no young talent to surround him? What good did it do the Marlins this year?

          Let these guys develop. If Stanton reaches FA, buy him.

          1. The problem the Marlins had this year was they did not have enough talent around Stanton. Most of the players they did have around him were young, they just were not that talented.

            Chipper Jones led the Braves into the playoffs and he was 40. Jeter was outstanding for the Yankees and he was 37.

            “If Stanton reaches FA, buy him.”

            Josh Hamilton reached free agency and he only cost $125 million to “buy”. He won’t be wearing a Phillies uniform this year will he? You do understand that if Stanton reaches free agency he will likely be looking at a ten year deal for $280 million?

            How much was Josh Hamilton again?

            BOYCOTT the SCAMMIES

            FIRE the LIAR Dave $$$ Montgomery

            Where’s the $200 million payroll 3.5 million Phans paid for?

    1. Tyson is trade chipable…..IMO Ruben needs for him to do well April through July so he can move him at the trade deadline. From what I hear, Revere is here to stay.

    2. If both players continue to develop, you could get away with Gillies in CF and Revere in LF, which is what they did in Minnesota last season. Not much power, but they’d wreak havoc on the basepaths at the top of the order, and the OF defense would be off the charts.

      You’re not going to get any value for Gillies at this point, unless he makes the bigs and proves himself healthy and capable at that level. And at that point, why trade him?

      1. I’m ready to dump Revere as well as Giles right now as you read this.

        You’re post is ridiculous. The Phillies need to hit over 200 HR to be a World Series team. Go look at 2008 and 2009. CBP is a HR park. Revere and Giles are Seattle type players.

        The Phillies have gone to back-to-back World Series after moving into CBP so why are so many refusing to look at those teams? Toothpick bats have no place on this team.

        1. LOL!

          I actually wrote “you’re” when it should have been “your”. Never saw that mistake in that direction, some kind of dyslexia?

        2. The 2012 WS Champ Giants hit 103 HR. The 2011 WS Champ Cards hit 162 HR. The 2010 WS Champ Giants hit 162 HR.

          There is nothing ridiculous about having speed at the top of the lineup — and covering a ton of ground in the OF defensively — at the sacrifice of HRs. Nobody refuses to look at what the Phillies did in 2008, but this is a different team, built around pitching.

          1. The Giants play in either the worst HR park or the 2nd worst in MLB.

            Buster Posey would have won the triple crown if he started for the Phillies in 2012.

            It was only a little over four years ago that the Phillies won the World Series and a little over three years ago that they played the Yankees in the fall classic and lost. Why would any sane person try to go against a successful model like that?

  14. geez A Do you have a terminal disease and not going to live past next year. You just ruinedyour future.. They wouldn’t take it any way. Quanity won’t get Stanton quality will. I would like Giles and Walding progress like I know they can.

    1. You can’t really say it ruins our future and in the next sentence say they wouldn’t accept the deal.

      It’s a huge package and I probably wouldn’t do it. We’d be trading our most promising major leaguer (Brown) and, with the exception of Quinn, probably our five highest upside minor league guys.

  15. The trade is probably bad for both teams. I loved the Halladay trading Drabek, D’Arnaud and Taylor. D’Arnaud help the Jays lend Dickey so they got something back. I wish Charlie had shopped Lee more, but the fans would’ve raised hell to keep Lee and Doc. I’m seriously at the point were the team needs to go into the Spring and take inventory.

  16. Since there aren’t good options for corner outfield and the bullpen is pretty much set, maybe Shaun Marcum in the four spot as an upgrade to Kendrick would be beneficial? Also, Brown and Ruf both having breakout seasons in the corners would be FANTASTIC!! Can’t stress that enough.

    1. The last thing the Phillies need is another pitcher.

      No, strike that.

      The last thing the Phillies need is another toothpick bat.

  17. no way marlins take that package for stanton.maybe and its a big maybe you throw in galvis, aumont with those guys, and brown they might think about it, but still not enough

  18. The Phils always seem to bring in veteran pitchers to spring training. With Matt Anderson in 2011 and Dontrelle Willis and Scott Elarton 2012 as examples, the bar is not set real high. I already mentioned Brandon Webb as someone I would like brought in on a minor league contract.

    Another name is 31 year old Daniel Cabrera who is now more than a year recovered from Tommy John surgery. Cabrera is the dominant starting pitcher in the Dominican winter league where it appears he has overcome the lack of control problems that beset his career before he got injured.

    Manny Ramirez, now 40, played successfully for Charlie back in the Cleveland days before Manny became a prima donna. Manny got released from AAA ball by his own request last year following his drug suspension. He is now raking in the Dominican winter league where he clearly is not playing for the money but for one last chance in the show. I’d throw a minor league offer his way with the thought that he could DH in interleague games, pinch hit some and fill in once or twice a week in left field. If he has nothing left or can’t adjust to a limited role, it’s not a big financial gamble.

    I think the time for obvious off season moves has come and gone. These are cheap experiments and with even one such move working out, the team looks a little deeper.

    1. The problem with Cabrera is that he was never really as good as people thought. yes he had a nice k rate early on but his WHIP was way to high to be succesful. But as you say its a cheap experiment.

      As for Manny I don’t think you waste the roster spot. Even if he can still hit you need someone who can at least be an upgrade defensively. With the tact they are taking this year I don’t think the bench roles can be liabilities in the field.

  19. In anticipation of our Top 30 vote I’m wondering if you all would be interested in an around the horn discussion on Sleeper Picks to either be in or out of your top 10, top 20 with the idea being shedding light on players rated to low, not on the radar or possibly over rated.

    It would look some thing like this

    Top 10 in: Gillies (will be the year he stays healthy and puts it all together)
    Top 10 Out: Joseph (1400+ PA’s only .308 OBP and .735 OPS)
    Top 20 In: Delvi Francisco (SSS but I like age 20 .962 WHIP with 12.2 K/9)
    Top 20 Out: J. James (now age 24 doesn’t appear to have the hit tool)

    again the idea that to most it would be some what controversial. What do you think?

  20. Buster posted a column today about how maybe the Phils should have sent Papelbon and Howard to the Dodgers along with Lee when they claimed him on waivers. Let’s assume the Phils had done that and got a similar return to what the red sox did for Beckett, Gonzalez, and Crawford. What would the Phils have done this off season and what would the roster look like going into 2013?

    1. I posted my response on that thread, but I will repeat some of it here:
      First you have to replace Howard, the replacement is likely Ruf but there is no way the Phillies would not have some sort of backup or platoon plan there (with worst case scenario is the other guy hits and you move Ruf back to LF), so that one is easy. Now you have to find a “proven closer”, I would suspect that they would have been the ones to trade for Hanrahan so you have given up some fringy stuff (lets call it Hernandez, Valle, and Lindblom) and saved 6 million and three years (for those playing along we have 31 million saved). Now comes the pitching staff where you have Hamels, Halladay?, Worley, and Kendrick. They go hard after Grienke and ultimately still lose him to the Rangers (this time the Dodgers don’t spend the Nolan Ryan out of it). The Phillies then overpay Anibal Sanchez and give him a 5yr 82 million contract outbidding the Tigers (Anibal – Lee = 8 million in savings). The Phillies then have a ton of arms at AA and up (assuming the Red Sox deal) and they package some of them to the Padres for Headley (lets call it Webster, May, Asche, and Rubby De la rosa, this wipes out Lee savings). Now they go give Swisher the Cleveland deal and sign BJ Upton for 5yrs 78 million (this gives us about 6 million left which they then use to sign Mike Adams).

      Your 2013 Phillies:
      C – Valle
      1B – Darin Ruf (and a buddy lets call him James Looney)
      2B – Utley
      3B – Headley
      SS – Rollins
      RF – Swisher
      CF – Upton
      LF – Brown/Mayberry

      SP – Hamels, Halladay?, Sanchez, Worley, Kendrick
      SU – Adams CL – Hanrahan

      You have subtracted $227 million of long term contracts and signed ~190 million worth of long term contract. You also have given up Asche and your 1st and 2nd round picks, the offense is much better than now but your pitching is slightly worse. You have opened the window for a couple more years but you still have to pay Headley and Hanrahan in the next two. It might be a better team but I don’t think it is better than the Nationals and you have hitched your hopes to Upton, Swisher, and Sanchez all of who have had some consistency problems. Lee and Papelbon are expensive but both are on market contracts and are incredibly consistent and you know what you will get.

      But this is all contingent on the Phillies getting the same package as the Red Sox (which I am not sure of)

    2. Would forcing Howard and Papelbon on them have been possible? I don’t know the rules of waiver claims.
      If they did do that, they probably would have gone all out sell mode this offseason, moving pieces like Rollins, Halladay?, Chooch? for prospects. Pre-suspension Ruiz would have gotten a good haul, I think.
      Assuming they go all sell mode, the roster would look pretty bleak. Probably Mayberry in CF with Brown on one corner, Schierholtz on the other. Ruf at 1B. Perhaps DeFratus would be the closer, though probably Bastardo or Aumont.

      Still, they didn’t do any one of this so I guess they are in sort of a middle ground where they are too good to rebuild, not good enough to be clear favorites to make the playoffs, and not enough means ($ and prospects) to acquire impact players.

      1. “and not enough means ($ and prospects) to acquire impact players.”

        The Phillies have enough money to have signed Josh Hamilton and Greinke.

        They simply chose not to.

        Dave $$$ Montgomery LIED to Phillies fans on the Phillies web site in July when he stated that the Phillies would be willing to pay taxes on the payroll every year to win.

        FIRE the LIAR

          1. Ha, an easy give away to detect his return….he bolds, italicizes and double-spaces between paragraphs. And of course, his love for Dave Montgomery.

  21. I’m not an Olney insider but from what comes out in the public, it isn’t worth it at a quarter of the price. Buster Olney was at his best using inside sources to report on what teams are thinking. When left to his own devices, he is really weak at thinking through the moves that teams should make.

    The Red Sox could make that August deal by trading out of its league to the point of not worrying if the moves make the Dodgers into a power house.. It becomes an issue for them only at the World Series level at a point where the Red Sox get there. The big salary dump moves (Marlins-Blue Jays) are inter-league trades. If the Phils made the Dodgers a short term dynasty, how does that help the Phils competitively and with their investment in the talent they would not move? Buster may be a marvel in his fantasy league but if he floated his ideas privately with front office types, I think he would be laughed at. What he would accomplish in a trade such as he suggested has nothing to do with the objectives of ownership.

    1. Buster doesn’t have the balls to write about John S. Middleton and how much money he has, how huge the Phillies TV deal is likely to be or even note that the Phillies were first in attendance in all of MLB.

      Instead he breaks out his his “trade Cliff Lee” nonsense again.

      The TV networks are not happy with the Phillies winter either. Definitely not a ratings winner.

      How do the Phillies figure to get that huge Dodgers level TV deal? Ratings were down 39 percent this year. Yet another reason to FIRE the LIAR Dave $$$ Montgomery.

    1. Sorry wheels……a short visit is all I can take with Chris, told Santa to bring him back to Philly right after the dinner.

  22. I really hate the fact, that the phillies had to spend 18 million. for a eight inning guy and a closer, look at the braves and natl, to me that is a big difference, if we had young cheap talent like braves and natl, we would have had a enough to sign a big time player like hamilton, what i mean is we could have done it within the luxury tax restriction,

  23. Did I miss something? What exactly have the Braves done with all this young talent? What have the Nats done other than get bounced in the playoffs by an 88 win team.

    It’s lunacy to try and equate spending with championships. Funny how the Cardinals opted not to break the bank for Pujols yet they still made it back to the NLCS and funny how the Angels didn’t even make the playoffs.

    1. DMAR….you said it exactly right. If equating spending with championships was the norm, the Yankees would be WS participants every year. Tired of people wanting the success of the hot stove off-season to be fueled with paper money.

    2. And in 2 years, the Brave will be paying $18m for their close and 8th inning guys since they are now entering arbitration.

      Its all about where teams are in regards to their prospects. Back in 2006, it was the Phillies with all of the cheap talent on the roster. Now its the Braves and Nationals but both of those teams are about to find their teams getting expensive over the next 2-3 years. Difference is that the Phillies are able to carry the payroll to keep their players while both of those teams will have to decide who stays and who goes.

      1. Knowing the Braves they will probably trade those guys before they get too expensive in arbitration and their cycle continues. Remember their ownership is cheap as anything.

        1. I hate saying this but in the Braves defense they got into a really bad TV deal in the 90′s i think that has them on the outside looking in on these new mega-deals everyone is getting. Also when is someone going to look into how the Braves handle their pitching prospects? Every year we keep hearing of all of this talent and they come up and then hurt their arm lose velocity and get traded or released. Just something i have noticed over the last 5 or so years.

          1. Have to agree on their handling of young pitchers, mostly starters. I have seen so many young arms from the Glavine/Smoltz/Maddux era, come up and thrown into the pot, and then after a few years they are struggling or hurting. From the Millwoods, Averys, Chens, and lately Hanson and Jairgens (sp), there seems to be something amiss in their pitching developmental programs.

          2. Its an interesting Philosophical difference that get debated here all the time. The Braves tend to move young players, including pitchers, quickly through the system and into the majors while the Phillies tend to be conservative with promoting players to the majors.

            Does a ML workload on young pitchers result in arm issues?

    1. If these guys had there way we would have signed Reyes, Pujois, and C.J. Wilson last year. Upton, Hamilton, and Greinke (paying him $30 million/year to get him off the left coast) this year. Next year we’d add Cano. We’d somehow convince the Marlins to taake half of our farm system to trade Stanton in the division. The Padres would somehow take the other half to trade Headley within the league.

      In five years we’d have a team with a couple 100 win seasons and maybe a WS behind them that was now a .500 team with a median age of 36 and a payroll over $300 million. Montgomery would be losing money hand over fist but that;s OK because he is making the fans happy and the business of baseball is all about altruism.

  24. Miguel Nunez: per Jim Salisbury, CSN
    —– Original Message —–
    From: Salisbury, James
    To: Ron
    Sent: Thursday, December 27, 2012 10:37 AM
    Subject: Re: Phillies’ MiLB Pitcher
    He is still technically a member of the organization. He has had some off field issues that have prevented him from pitching. That’s all I know. Thanks

    From: Ron
    Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:00:18 -0500
    To: “Salisbury, James”
    Subject: Phillies’ MiLB Pitcher
    Hi Jim, What happened to Miguel Nunez?

  25. Hello everyone. I am a daily reader of the website – really love the passion demonstrated for the minor league prospects (as well as the major league team). This is my first response – so take it easy on me!

    I like what RAJ did here and more importantly, what he did not do. Simply put, he is betting on his horses and keeping his powder dry. He is hoping that Utley, Howard and Halladay have healthy, productive years and that Lee has just even some semblance of good luck this year. Makes sense to me. He did not throw good money after average to marginal guys – 3 yrs 27mil for Ross, no thanks, 4 yrs 52 mil for swisher with a 5 th yr vest option, yikes, the list goes on and on. I can live with one more season of hoping this team can make the playoffs. I can live with hoping Ruf and Brown develop into decent Major League Baseball players for this season. If it does not work out, the Phil’s are better positioned to have the fire sale this year since Utley, Ruiz, Halladay all have expiring big money deals. I know I have to get used to “the new norm” with .500 pitchers getting 52 mil for 4 yrs,etc but, geez.

    And if the baseball Gods do smile upon us and we are in this thing, RAJ has resources to make a deal or two to get us over the top. I may be mr. Stinking ray of sunshine, but I think there is some collective gas left in this phillies tank. Stranger things have happened in baseball. There is no team out there that is so much better than the others. We just need to play well enough to get into the tournament. The difference between the best team and the 25th best team has never been closer.

    Worst case, we can dream on the kids and stockpile more by being July sellers.

  26. Each organization has an operating philosophy. The philosophy of the Phillies has never been to go commando and lead the charge to bust the financial guidelines that the commish is trying to set for baseball. They haven’t gone over their draft budget, when the could well have afforded to. They have gone in for the blow-out international amateur signings or the megabuck Cubans or Japanese. They drafted Drew ‘for the good of baseball’. They have increased their budget to the commish’s luxury tax limit. They may exceed it at the trade deadline if they are in strong contention, but they are not going to behave like the Dodgers and go into the season busting the cap. That is not how the leopard behaves and this leopard doesn’t change its spots, no matter how much TV revenue may be on the horizon and how many sellouts they’ve had. The Phillies owners are not boat rockers. Never have been and never will be.

    On each message board, there is a group of posters who have managed to convince themselves that money is no object and RA has authority to blow through the cap. Not true. He unloaded players to get below the cap last year. He has taken money back in virtually every significant deal he has done in order to stay below his annual budget. The level of spending and supporting the commish will always be an issue with the Phillies owners. I suspect this will continue, even if the team gets a mega-TV deal. The only thing that could have caused the team to go over the cap over the past year was the need to resign Hamels. We could well see a pop over the cap next year to resign some of our own players.

    1. A very wordy post Atown and I still don’t know what point you are trying to make. Are you saying their Philosphy is bad or wrong?

      Do you have a seat in the board room at CBP to know for a fact this is their philosphy and how they plan to operate going forward or is this just your opinion?

      1. This is the philosophy the Phillies have consistently followed. You don’t need a board room seat, all you need to do is observe their behavior. I am fine with them sticking to the luxury cap. I have been highly critical of them not spending more in bonuses for the draft and international talent. I thought it was assumed that everything posted on this forum is the opinion of the poster. Are your posts based on inside info?

        1. Concerning international signees, I want them to spend ‘Up To the Limit’ in the international market now that there is some regulatory measures imposed by MLB.

        2. Ok I was just trying to get some clarification on your point of view. I’m not sure I share your position on international talent because more often than not it proves to be a waste of resources. I mean which international examples do we want to point to?

          As for draft bonuses I’m not sure I can disagree with you but I would just ask what are the examples of players we didn’t land because we were not willing to go over slot? I’m not trying to be a smart a$$ I just want to be educated…

          Let’s use the benefit of hindsight and name some players this regime missed on.

          1. ‘I’m not sure I share your position on international talent because more often than not it proves to be a waste of resources’….the drafts can be also considered that…of the 40/50 rounds and signees of approx 75%, how many actually make it as impact players per draft?

            1. Not many Anon but my perception of the international market is that it’s free for all and over inflated market. Like who in their right mind would (looking back) pay for Daiske what that wound up costing Boston?

              Take Adeiny Hechavarria 4/$10 and contrast that to Harper’s 5/$9.9

              Again just my opinion and I could be wrong. Maybe there are some winners out there. Profar signed in 09 for $1.5 Million and it looks like he might be a super star at some point.

              So if these guys for the most part are all lottery tickets why would you pay 4x as much for the same ticket? Isn’t it more about who you have to evaluate the talent than it is what you pay for it. What did we pay for Tocci and Pujols?

    1. Would love to see that happen but I don’t trust Charlie to let it happen. This kid needs to play…..every game….against righty’s and lefty’s. I do not need to see anymore JMJr. Same with Ruf in left. If he can play passable (Ibanez, Burrell) defense, put him out there every day.

  27. Dmar the point i was making was,if the phillies didnt have to go outside the organizaion, they would have had the money to spend on a hamilton or someone else, they took too long to reconize there need to rebuild a bullpen, rememeber the draft of college relief arms, was only two. three drafts ago. I just look at the giants, and a lot of other teams and they have cheaper bullpen guys to closer out games. thats the point,instead of organization guys in the later rounds, look for one pitch pitcher who throws hard in college, who might be able to devleop that second pitch to be bullpen guys, or a starter who loses his stuff later on in games. instead of orgainization fillers, just thought.

    1. I get what you are saying and I think I agree on your basic point. In the end though I don’t agree that the bullpen $ cost them signing Hamilton. Heck they were going to give him 3/$80. Can you fault them for not going 5/$125? I can’t.

      I could be wrong but I’m not sure any of this seasons FA’s would be wise moves based on the question marks they have in Halladay, Utley and to some degree Howard.

      I think you have to start your 2013 the way you finished 2012 and assess the state of your team based on that info. Based on what you saw at the end of last year I would think you like what you saw in Aumont and JDF. Adams has always been a well sought after name so he could be a hot commodity at the deadline if need be.

      This is just my opinion but I don’t think you can free agent your way into being a WS contender. I think you build your core from within then add the pieces here and there at the right time either through a trade or an FA.

      They made the right moves in 10 and 11 with the window they had it just slammed shut last year with the injuries.

  28. Carlos Zambrano is out there, any takers? He may have turned over a new leaf. And good bat off the bench also.

  29. Like the idea of a good bat off the bench so I’d go outside of the box on Manny Ramirez. I suspect Zambrano probably envisions his role having something to do with pitching. Not sure what that role would be in Philly. I think I’d sooner see Bret Myers back in a Phils uniform though there are those here who are convinced he burnt his bridges here irreparably.

      1. Assume one being, Dariel Alvarez. He has the size and youth on his side. Why not, they have the money that he would require.

        1. Plus he doesn’t count towards the cap. I have no idea what kind of contract he would command, though. If it’s reasonable…why not? Could be one of their better OF options, short and long term.

    1. No. But you don’t want him. He can only play LF (and DH). Plus he’d block Ruf. Plus he’s too much of a free swinger.

  30. why don’t we just sign d young, m. ramirez, b meyers and zambrano. we would be the most dysfunctional team in the league. thats gotta b worth something right lol

      1. Forget, Beltran, It was Lance Berkman. Point is that there are always under the radar signings that teams make that work out. History’s list of worst free agent signings are largely obvious choices of guys who didn’t pan out. Best signings include guys like Cecil Fielder who a team picks up for a song because they weren’t obvious. Don’t need a team full of hard to find nuggets to pan out. One would be fine, especially for a team close to its self imposed spending limit. Want the Bronx Zoo? Check out the (title winning) 1997 Marlins. Now that’s funny.

  31. How much do you think it would take to get Andre ethier from the dodgers? Aparently he’s on the trade block.

    1. Don’t want him, that extension is going to be one of the worst contracts in baseball, he is not a good defender and he cannot hit left handed pitching (.222/.276/.330 line last year). Would much rather see Brown there at a fraction of the cost.

      1. Didn’t Ethier win a gold glove a couple years ago? I’m not saying he’s torii hunter, but he can’t be worse than brown or ruf defensively and I’d imagine that he’d do better at
        CBP in terms of power, which is something the Phillies are in need of.

        I think the Phillies need an established semi-veteran in the outfield with revere and ruf/brown, whether that be Ethier or Kubel or someone else.

        1. Up until 2012 Ethier was about -2 WAR player on defense that is Brown at 30 times the cost. Plus you are tied to it likely through 2018. Each ‘established’ slugger available is going to come with huge defensive problems or a terrible contract.

  32. he has been on the trade block for a while now, dont think they are looking for big return, they just want to unload him, so they can sign bourn,

  33. What exactly makes Profar the best prospect in all the minors? Plus speed, great plate discipline, decent power for a SS, average fielder. Sounds like an average to slightly above average mlb player to me. Now looking at Billy Hamilton who has a plus hit tool, the best speed in the majors/minors maybe ever, and has enough power for XBH’s yet he isn’t regarded as even close to Profar. What am I missing?

    1. I think you are underselling Profar, his scouting report is likely:
      70 Hit, 60 Power, 60 Speed, 60 Glove, 60 Arm, there isn’t really a comparison for that, and he is only 19 years old, and has made his major league debut so he is as safe as prospects come.

      Hamilton is now a CF long term and his report looks more like:
      70 Hit (plays way up due to speed), 30 Power (gap to gap can turn them into triples but there won’t be many out of the park HRs), 80 Speed (more like 100 and off the charts), 80 Glove (I am projecting what his speed will do in CF), 50 Arm
      Overall he is a faster version of Michael Bourn with less arm and more advanced at the same age. If he could have stuck at shortstop with above average defense he would be a top 10 prospect but moving to CF hurts his value. He is also at least a year away from contributing anything other than pinch running.

      1. Oh so its basically the less premium position that knocks Hamilton back, got it. I still think I could find a few other prospects more valuable than Profar but young age carries him a long way I guess.

        1. The only guys in the debate in my mind are Bundy and Taveres, but if you really like pitching prospects I can see an argument for Walker, Wheeler, or Cole. A major league ready shortstop is a really valuable thing (it goes and gets you your choice of Upton or Stanton if you want to cash it in that way)

          1. Profar reminds me of Jeter. He just seems to have that ‘makeup’ to be more than just the average of his tools, and plays the premium position in the field. (I think C is more important but most stud C have to move out to extend their career). He does not have a 80 tool, so I could see many preferring player with 80-like tools.

            Bundy does seems like a stud from the little I heard about him.

            I know little about the other guys but Myers being traded at all makes me think the Royals know something others do not.

  34. SF Giants Head of Scouting, John Barr:
    Since “Moneyball,” the traditional “sandlot-roving gut-feeling, tough-talking” scouts have gotten a bad rap, said Barr. “It’s not like we don’t use statistical analysis, which we do, like everyone else these days, but you cannot go without having people out there watching and talking to the guys you are looking at,” said Barr. What has also changed, even in his relatively short time with the Giants, is the extensive use and cataloging of video. When he is home in Haddonfield, he is never without his iPad and cellphone, checking and cross-checking reports and videos from his scouting staff, both in the states and internationally. “We can watch videos of what this or that guy did versus lefthanded curveball pitchers in the daytime, or whatever,” he said. “Each player gets graded on a whole range of things, from arm strength to foot speed to, well, a whole lot of things that we like to keep private.” Barr said a player’s “makeup” is so integral to the process, and it’s something that no statistical analysis or even iPad video can detect. “You have to find out who the family is, what the family is like. You see his abilities in a game, but what is his motivation? Will he learn things on the way up?” said Barr. Counterintuitively, Barr likes his scouts to see a player in his “other” sport, maybe watching him play basketball or soccer. “You want to see him in a sport he is not dominant in. You want to see how he competes. Does he make adjustments? Because along the way, he is going to have to make adjustments. The playing field is going to catch up to him and you don’t want his first failure to be at the major league level.”

      1. Edgar Garcia was a pitcher that previously played for the Phils. No idea if this is the same one.

        Harold Garcia played 2b.

        1. Did some poking around and yes, it’s the same guy. Pitched last year for El Paso of the American Association. The previous year he split between A+ and AA in the Royals’ system, putting up solid numbers in only 48 IP.

          1. That Edgar Garcia was once felt to have more of an upside than Carlos Carrasco, who was then the top pitching prospect in our system. His pitching just seemed to go south over a couple of years until the Phillies got rid of him.

  35. Question for everyone, where do we rank Mitch Walding? Started the season hot and then really cooled off, but still has a bunch of tools and a nice looking swing.

    1. Late teens or twenties probably. Scouts still really like him I think. Couple months ago I had him at 23 on my personal list.

    2. Walding is an interesting case. I didn’t like his swing at all when I first saw it. Didn’t think he stayed inside the ball well enough to adjust to off speed pitches. That was an old swing in fairness.

      When he got to WPT his swing looked better to start but as the season went on it appeared he was falling back into old habits. To answer your question I have him 32 but I am still positive he can be coached back into the top 20.

  36. I think he is really hard to place in the top thirty, he really didnt adjust well, but on the other hand with a lack of prospect he is most likely top thrity in a bad farm system, not that he is such a great prospect, its just that there really isnt that much in this system, so a guy who has some early sucesss, will get better rating, in a poor system, doesnt mean he is anything special.

  37. Did anyone else catch Bill James on Baseball Confidential with Larry Bowa last night? I get this guy understands math in a way that I can’t begin to fathom but I don’t get the hype and the way Brian Kinney falls at his feet makes me sick to my stomach.

    Some one give me some perspective that I am not seeing. What has Bill James done to warrant Kinney to say he hopes he is in the HOF some day.

      1. Give me more. My earliest memories of baseball, professional baseball players was the late 70′s. Unless I am wrong Sabrmetrics weren’t widely known back then but I still knew who the best players in the game were.

        Secondly Sabr is a measure after the fact. Can anyone show where they are predictive to a high degree of certainty? Meaning were there any Sabr guys out there last March saying the A’s were going to win 94 Games.

        And catch don’t get me wrong I do like some of the Sabr stats but a few of them are over indulgent hyperbole masked in math.

        Thomas Edison gave us the lightbulb that was pretty darn useful and seriously practical. We can enjoy a night baseball game under the lights thanks to him. I don’t sit and watch a baseball thinking of Bill James and how what he created made the game any better than what it would be without him.

        1. Well, these statistcal methods ARE both explanatory and predictive and definitely aid many people in appreciating and understanding the game. But it is not just about statistics, it is about studying aspects of the game in a rigorous, somewhat academic manner, much as any researcher would do. For example, much of James’ more interesting work related not traditional player statistics but to things such as run production strategies (such as the general evil of the bunt), when a good relief pitcher makes the most difference (late in tie games, believe it or not, making the managerial strategy of putting in crappy relivers in tie games on the road one of the most stupid in baseball – Charlie loses at least one or two games a year due to this moronic orthodoxy), or theories about how different types of players age and how performance decreases over time (highly relevant tobdesired contract length). The list goes on and on.

          But you have already made up your mind so my trying to convince you otherwise in a
          short blog entry is just not productive. You may have a very good eye for talent and this research may not aid your enjoyment of the game, and that is fine, but many of on this site – I would venture to say most of us – do not feel that way at all and rightly view James as a sports analysis pioneer who is more than worthybof Hall election particularly when sportswriters, who pale in relative importance to James, are routinely
          inducted.

          1. You have me pegged wrong. I am an open mind. I asked for persepctive that I am not seeing. No different than how we sit here and talk about prospects. I do appreciate your arguments for him.

            It might be harder for me to accept what Mr. James does because I don’t see baseball as science. I see it as art, I see it as poetry in motion. You cite above managerial strategy that he has developed. Bochy won 2 of the last 3 WS. I don’t know the answer to this question but if someone told me or showed me a statement from Bochy on how he credited the principles of Sabr to his success that would go a long way in changing my mind.

            With regard to the Hall my opinion is that 99% of it should be reserved for those that played the game.

            Catch let me ask you this one question. If I gave you the backs of all the baseball cards without the names for the players who played in 1977 and gave you a week… do you think you could build a pretty nice team drafting 25 guys from that information?

          2. catch….’statistcal methods ARE both explanatory and predictive ‘…predictive on an individual player basis, not so much on a team’s performance. I like the sabrmetric philosophy, in the fantasy basbeall world it is a panacea.

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