Rule 5 Draft Preview – 40 Man Roster Decisions

Each December at the Winter Meetings is the Rule 5 draft, the draft was created in order to provide a path to the major leagues for players in deep systems that would otherwise be blocked.  To be eligible for the Rule 5 draft a player must:

  • Not be on a 40 man roster
  • Have been in the minor leagues for at least 4 years if he was signed at or after age 19
  • Have been in the minor leagues for at least 5 years if he was signed at or before age 18

The main point of interest here is which prospects will receive a 40 man roster spot in order to be protected in the draft.  Two of the most controversial players Tyler Cloyd and Darin Ruf received spots on the 40 man roster has part of their September call-ups and are thus exempt from the draft.  The Phillies have until November 20 to submit a 40 man roster to the commissioner’s office of those that are to be protected.

The draft itself operates in reverse order to the standings and each team may make a pick (making a pick costs the team $50,000) or pass and the draft ends once all teams have passed.  There is a minor league portion but since not much talent is moved and it is more about filling out rosters that won’t be covered here.  Once a player is selected he is subject to these restrictions:

  • He must remain on the 25 man roster throughout the regular season
  • He must acrrue at least 90 days of active status (not on a disabled list), if a player has less than 90 days he is subject to Rule 5 restrictions until he gains 90 days
  • In order to be optioned to the minors the player must be offered back to his original team for $25,000 fee
  • If his original team chooses not to accept them back they are the property of the team that drafted them as if they were claimed normally off of waivers

I am going to go through all of the players in the system eligible for the draft regardless of their current level as in 2011 the Cubs selected Lendy Castillo a converted infielder who had only pitched for two years and never above Low-A.  There are many players eligible in the system and I will have a brief write up on each but there will be much more priority placed on the higher profile players in the system. (All ages are as of the draft)

2005 International Signings

Tim KennellyAge 26 

Scouting Report:  Up until 2012 Kennelly was an org player who specialized in playing every position on the diamond.  After being called to do some mop up pitching Kennelly showed a fastball that touched 97 mph.  The Phillies have since begun to transition Kennelly full time to relief pitching.  He is rapidly gaining command and control of his fastball and he has a developing slider.  If he can harness both he is a potential late inning reliever in the mold of Cardinal’s closer Jason Motte.

Prediction:  Kennelly certainly has the upside to be a power reliever but he needs to log innings right now to refine his command and control.  There is small chance that a major league team would draft Kennelly, but his upside would be lost if he has to take a year in a major league bullpen without regular work.

2006 Draft

D’Arby Myers4th round (#127 overall) – age 24 

Scouting Report:  Myers is generally considered a failed prospect, he got off to a great start his first year of pro ball but he has since struggled to make consistent contact.  He is a good defensive player but not quite enough to profile every day in center fielder.  While still young, Myers bat profiles primarily in center fielder, which makes him a player without a position, and his upside as a #5 OF.

Prediction:  Myers lacks the upside to be a real candidate to be a pick in the draft.  He may still eventually make it to the majors at some point, but unless a team is desperate for a late inning defensive replacement he likely will return the Phillies org in 2013.

2007 Draft

Chance Chapman8th round (#263 overall) – Age 28 

Scouting Report/Prediction: At this point in his career Chapman is a journeyman organizational reliever.  It will be less surprising to see him released than selected.

Justin Friend13th round (#420 overall) – Age 26

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Friend is a great story having been drafted bu the Phillies in the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2010.  In 2012 he put up amazing numbers as Reading’s closer with a 0.23 ERA.  Friend does not have great stuff, but he has good control and does not make mistakes and gets a good amount of ground balls.  Friend may eventually make the majors and be a an effective middle reliever but he will likely need to prove it AAA for a team.  In the Rule 5 draft teams are looking for instant help or upside and Friend provides some of the first and not much of the second.  Friend likely goes to the LHV bullpen with the hope he gets a 2013 call to help the Phils pen.

Jiwan James22nd round (#683 overall) – Age 23 

Scouting Report: James started his career as a pitcher before switching to hitting in 2009 after missing 2008 due to injury.  James is probably the best defensive center fielder in the organization and he has a plus arm as well.  At the plate James has never followed up on the flashes he shown.  He has good power and speed but his approach has been below average and he has never been a good base runner.  However, James has only had four years of hitting and there is plenty to like if he does put it together.

Prediction:  James was one of the highest profile players left unprotected in 2011, but was not selected in the draft.  James hasn’t improved his stock enough to be protected this year either.  For a team looking for a 4th OF James is intriguing because he has the tools to be average at the plate in the majors, and he already is a great defensive player.  It is as likely that he gets selected this year as he was last year, which means he probably won’t be selected this year.

2007 International Signings

Gabriel AriasAge 23 

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Arias has put up good numbers at each level he has pitched at, ultimately ending 2012 in Clearwater.  He hasn’t shown enough stuff to be fast tracked and spent 4 years in the DSL before making his state side debut.  Seems to profile as a useful organizational reliever but not a potential Rule 5 candidate.

Miguel Alvarez - Age 23 

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Alvarez was an under the radar signing in 2007 out of the Dominican Republic.  Alvarez had a breakout year in 2010 for Williamsport showing a chance to be a decent prospect, however he failed to live up to that promise in 2011.  Alvarez is far away from the from contributing on a major league level and has no chance of being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Juan SosaAge 23

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Couldn’t find any good reports on Sosa’s stuff but he seems like a good org reliever.  Doesn’t seem to be any chance of being protected or picked.

Leandro CastroAge 23

Scouting Report:  Castro doesn’t have any plus tools but he is also lacking any deficiencies.  He hits for power and average, but doesn’t have enough power to profile in an outfield corner, and he doesn’t have the plate discipline or speed to add secondary skills to his contact ability.  He can play all three outfield positions but isn’t quite good enough in center to play there every day.  Castro’s likely role is as a 4th OF, though he could be a starting corner outfielder for a second division team while he is young and cost controlled.

Prediction:  Castro likely only needs another half season in the minors before he could step in as a 4th OF.  This makes him intriguing to a team that has an outfield corner spot open and a belief that Castro can repeat some of his Reading numbers.  If not he could be a good bench player for a team willing to deal with his approach issues at the plate.  Castro was left unprotected last year, but a season ending leg injury and having not played above A-ball stopped him from being selected.  This year if left unprotected he seems to be a lock to be selected as he will be useful in 2013.  Unless trades or signings take up more 40 man spots than predicted, it is likely that Castro will be protected and sent to LHV to refine his skills.

2008 Draft

Ethan Martin1st round (#15 overall) Los Angelos Dodgers – Age 23

Scouting Report – Martin struggled early in his career with command, but in 2012 he started to put it all together and posted the best numbers of his career.  Martin has a plus fastball that can touch 97 and a slurvy curveball that also flashes plus, and his change up is a work in progress.  If he puts it all together he still has #2 pitcher upside, if not he could be a late inning reliever.

Prediction – With the trade investment made in Martin, combined with his upside make him a lock to be added to the 40 man roster.

Anthony Hewitt1st round (#24 overall) – Age 23 

Scouting Report:  Hewitt has all the tools in the world, he has never been able to put them all together.  At the time of the draft some scouts but an 80 on his raw power and his speed is plus as well.  Hewitt has always struggled with off-speed pitches and has posted huge strikeout rates and low walk rates.  Defensively he is limited to a corner where he has plenty of arm, but his route running has been poor.  The good news is that Hewitt has been improving slowly and he is still young enough that a #4 OF upside with his power is not out of the question.

Prediction:  Due to his age Hewitt was Rule 5 eligible last year, and went unselected.  There is almost no chance that the Phillies protect him this year.  Hewitt is an interesting pick for a team looking to dream on upside and take a chance.  It is unlikely that he gets picked, but there is still long term hope that Hewitt can still become a bench player in the big leagues.

Zach Collier - supplemental 1st round (#34 overall) – Age 22

Scouting Report: The story of Collier’s career has been his time away from the field due to injury and suspension.  In the field Collier is an average center fielder with an average arm but there is enough there to be a good center fielder at the major league level.  At the plate Collier is a good hitter who began to show more power in 2012.  Collier also has plus speed and has good base running instincts.  Collier was sent to the AFL at the end of the season and has held his own to this point.  It is hard to project anything more than being a solid 4th OF, but since he has missed so much time there is still a chance that he will actualize more of his tools with more ABs and become a starting CF.

Prediction: Collier has the tools to be a solid major league player, and has the potential to be better than that.  Due to his missed time, Collier is still putting things together on the field, as evidenced by his power spike this season.  Collier’s performance in the AFL is the tipping point that likely guarantees him a spot on the 40-man, and a few more years of minor league plate appearances in the Phillies system.  If he is not protected he compares well to Jiwan James in 2011 with Collier showing a bit more power, and would have a decent chance of selection in the Rule 5 but by no means a lock.

Jonathan Pettibone - supplemental 3rd round (#110 overall) – Age 22

Scouting Report: Pettibone ended 2012 in AAA, one step away from the majors.  Pettibone’s fastball is average and can touch slightly above with good sink, his change up is solid, and his slider is fringe average.  Pettibone’s plus control allows his pitches to play up, and he has the ceiling of a mid rotation starter and could be ready as soon as mid season 2013.

Prediction: Pettibone will be in contention for the #5 starter job out of spring training.  This would make him one of the top players in the Rule 5 draft if he was available.  He is a lock to be added to the 40-man roster and protected from the draft.

Kyle Hudson4th round (#116 overall) Baltimore Orioles – Age 25

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Speed is Hudson’s calling card and he isn’t really a burner.  He isn’t a great hitter and is a solid org guy who may get another cup of coffee eventually.  With the resigning of Derrick Mitchell there likely is not a place for Hudson in the org next year let alone worth protecting from the Rule 5.

Trevor May4th round (#136 overall) – Age 23

Scouting Report: May is built like a prototypical right handed power pitcher and he has the stuff to live up to it.  He has a plus fastball, a slightly above average curveball, and an average change up.  May has always struggled with his command and his walk rate was up in 2012 and his strikeout rate plummeted.  May was also victimized by a large home run rate partially induced by the Reading ballpark as well as a change in pitching style.  May has #3 starter upside if he can keep his control and a back end reliever if he doesn’t.

Prediction: May is the former top prospect in the organization and hasn’t lost a ton of what gave him that distinction.  There is no way that May will not be added to the 40 man roster and protected.

Colby Shreve6th round (#196 overall) – Age 24

Scouting Report:  The Phillies took a risk that Shreve would rebound from pre-draft Tommy John Surgery but his stuff never came back to what it was before.  Shreve has an average fastball and secondary pitches that will flash average as well.  Shreve has made himself into a groundball specialist, though his walk rate remains high and his strikeout rate has not been there against advanced hitter.  Shreve profiles as a middle reliever/longman going forward.

Prediction:  Shreve is a casualty of a numbers crunch, the Phillies have a ton of high upside right handed relievers making Shreve expendable.  There is a chance that a team sees his pre-2012 strikeout rates and drafts him as a middle reliever where he should be a good value.  If he is not drafted Shreve looks like a candidate to change organizations next year when he is a minor league free agent, as he has the ability to make a career in the bullpen it just doesn’t look likely it will be with the Phillies.

Julio Rodriguez8th round (#256 overall) – Age 22

Scouting Report:  JRod has a below average fastball but he has natural cutting movement.  He has a big loopy curveball, a sharp slider, and a solid change up.  His delivery has a ton of deception to it.  JRod has good control but it is not plus, but despite all this he has missed bats at each level.  After a shaky 2012, Rodriguez still has ability to be a #5 starter but his most likely outcome is as a middle reliever with the hope that his stuff plays up in the bullpen.

Prediction:  Rodriguez is a close call when it comes to protecting.  His stuff does not indicate a high upside, but he could a be a useful piece on the major league level.  With a limited number of spots on the 40 man roster there are higher upside players needing protecting, not leaving a spot for Rodriguez.  There is a chance that another team sees him as a middle reliever who could be a long man or #5 starter if needed.

Cody Overbeck - 9th round (#286 overall) – Age 26

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Going into 2012, there was a chance that Overbeck could build on a good 2011 and seize a bench role in Philadelphia.  Instead he struggled in AAA, and while he can play some third base he has been passed there and at his primary position of first base by better prospects.  Overbeck was left unprotected and unclaimed a year ago and it appears that will be his fate again this year.

Troy Hanzawa16th Round (#496 overall)- Age 27

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Hanzawa is an org middle infielder, incredibly valuable to the org to fill spots but that is the extent of it.

Jim Murphy17th round (#526 overall) – Age 27

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Murphy has spent the last four years between CLW and LKW.  His numbers suggest that he could put up a Ruf-esque season in Reading next year but he isn’t a prospect, again a good org guy for the Phils, nothing wrong with that,

Steve Susdorf19th round ( #586 overall) – Age 26

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Susdorf has been old for every level he has played at and while he has performed well, his bat doesn’t profile well at any position.  Susdorf may get a late season cup of coffee but he doesn’t have the upside teams are looking for in the Rule 5 draft.

Michael Cisco36th round (#1096 overall) – Age 25

Scouting Report/Prediction:  Cisco has a slightly below average fastball and a plus curveball, to go with a fringe average breaking ball he can through for strikes.  He has good command but he doesn’t miss bats.  He is in a similar position to Shreve, he is caught behind higher upside relievers, a team desperate for a long man could pick him, but he is likely back to the LHV long man role.

2008 International Signings

Edgar Duran - Age 21

Scouting Report:  Duran has had a quiet trek through the Phillies minor league system.  Duran was signed as a glove first shortstop, he isn’t elite with the glove, but he is more than capable at the position.  Each year he has improved at the plate, and he has shown surprising power and good plate discipline and contact abilities.  At only 21 years old he could still improve, even if he has to repeat a year in CLW.

Prediction:  Duran is interesting, if drafted by a team it would set his development back a year because he won’t hit on the major league level.  But he could provide a glove as a back up middle infielder and is young enough to spend time in the minors developing.  He is a close call for the Phillies and it will depend on how they handle free-agency.  He is not a must protect, but if there is an extra spot he could receive it as a long term investment.

2009 Draft

Austin Hyatt15th round (#467 overall) – Age 26

Scouting Report:  Hyatt has an average fastball and a below average  slider, his main weapon is a plus change up.  Hyatt has plus command and control but if he is a little bit off he gives up a ton of hits and fly balls.  Hyatt was expected to have the season that Tyler Cloyd did, instead everything fell apart and his walk rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate plummeted.

Prediction:  If Hyatt had built on his 2011 he would be in consideration as a back of a rotation starter.  The fact is that at 26 years old there is no upside left for Hyatt, he is what he is at this point in his career.  Someone like Rodriguez is younger and has pitched better this year than Hyatt.  There is no chance of Hyatt being protected and little chance of him being picked in the draft.

55 thoughts on “Rule 5 Draft Preview – 40 Man Roster Decisions

  1. Excellent work and analysis Matt. And wouldn’t it be interesting if Jim Murphy does come close to replicating what Ruf did this year at Reading, in 2013.

  2. Nice work Matt, a good read and I agree with your points. Castro and Collier will be protected with the three pitchers. Beyond that, they don’t have spots for. As it is, do they have five spots?

  3. A lot of interesting guys to think about keeping I wonder what the Phillies thinking is and who they protect and who they leave out there to be drafted. I do wish we could have held onto Lendy Castillo but oh well.

  4. Arias was impressive as a starter late in the year. Since he does seem to have a good arm it wouldn’t stun me to see him get picked, as I doubt the Phils will protect him.

  5. I’ve seen reports elsewhere that Bonilla is eligible for the draft and needs to be protected. Any idea whether or not this is the case?

    1. He was born June 1990, and signed December 2008 so he shouldn’t need to be protected since he has 4 years service and signed at 18. If he does then he is a lock to be protected.

  6. This is an excellent analysis, with nothing significant to disagree with..

    In a better world, the Phils would have active competition for the 40 protected slots but would avoid losing players of great value. This is particularly so in an organization that moves its players deliberately up through the ranks. But if you look at the current situation, the last few slots will go to guys who have shown little prospect of helping a big league team. The test I apply is whether a player is likely to help the Houston Astros in ’13 or soon thereafter in any capacity. I agree that guys like Leandro Castro and Julio Rodriguez are likely to be protected but to me they are guys that organizations have in spades and you’d scratch your head with any organization that saw them as able to contribute at any time soon.

    1. I also use the Astros test, the other test is, is any team paying above the minimum for this role. Castro passes this test, how many teams pay more than the minimum for a fifth outfielder, he is not amazing but very solid.

      1. The problem is Castro’s walk rate. That’s a major deficiency. His approach more than likely will prevent him becoming even an acceptable 5th OF.

    2. Lends Castillo was by no means ready to help anyone at the ML level but the Cubs selected him and buried him their bullpen. If a club sees enough and are under no pressure to win right away, anyone can be selected if they have future ML ability.

      1. I also remember the Phils getting Fabio Castro and him pretty much never pitching that year. He was a rule 5 pick, although not by the Phillies.

      2. Correction – the Cubs hid him on the DL all year but still got to keep him after a few nominal outings to reach his minimum. Pretty shady

  7. This write-up was awesome. Thanks, Matt.

    There are 35 spots filled on the 40 man roster. We’ll probably add two or three guys through free agency (not necessarily big names, buts guys who will take up a roster spot). Let’s say it’s two and now it’s up to 37. Pettibone, May, and Martin will definitely be added. That brings the roster to 40.

    There are five relievers that could be cut to make room on the 40 man: Diekman, Savery, Valdez Schwimer, and JC Ramirez.

    I think we should add Collier and J-Rod and cut Savery and Ramirez. Collier’s shown enough to warrant another year to better evaluate him. I have a weak spot for J-Rod because of the superb K rates and being relatively young for his league all the way up the ladder. He’s definitely more valuable than Ramirez or Savery. In fact looking at the relievers ahead of him on the 40 man, I think he’s almost a lock to be protected.

    1. I would be ok with them cutting any of the guys that you mentioned other than Diekman i really believe he can become a good reliever.

    2. Pat – Diekman has no chance of being cut and it’s difficult to imagine Valdez or Schwimer getting cut either. JC had a solid but unspectacular year in his first full season as a reliever and I suspect he gets another look as well. I agree with Savery though

      1. Schwimer won’t get cut. Maybe traded. But that’s assuming he actually DID agitate the FO with his words (or if a team insisted he be included in a trade for a Justin Upton type, which I can’t imagine happening). Valdes could very easily get, though. He did a great job for us when we allowed him to pitch, but he could just as easily implode next year. I’d rather have Savery, personally, but ideally they’re both in the minors as injury insurance/working on some things.

    3. I think there is no way Diekman gets removed from the 40-man roster. I also think the Phils should hold on to JC Ramirez. As I have read (but not seen), Ramirez’s FB gets to 95 and he is still only something like 23-24. That seems like the prototypical Rule 5 RP pick. As such, if you were the Phils and someone was available in the Rule 5 draft that was 23-24 years old and hits 95, would you consider bringing him to Spring Training? Of course. Because of that, I think the Phils can justify his 40-man roster spot by thinking of him as in essence their Rule 5 pick. However, if the Phils feel he has no chance to make the team out of Spring Training, as Ramirez is also out of options, then they need to deal him or expose him.

      With that in mind, Savery can be exposed and Valdez too, if need be (they are both marginal LH relievers, don’t need both with Bastardo and Diekman ahead of them). I can’t see Schwimer being exposed as, leaving aside whatever issues he has/had with RAJ and the organization, he has shown he can be a contributor at the major league level (so if he is not on the 40-man roster, I imagine it will be the product of a trade). So if the Phils remove Valdez or Savery and then are at 34, they can protect May, Martin, Pettibone and then either Collier or Castro and be at 38, leaving 1 spot for a free agent/trade 3B and 1 for a free agent/trade OF, ending at 40. Odds are the Phils do something before then to address Nix/Schierholtz, so there may be one more spot for the other between Collier and Castro. I can see the Phils going the non-roster invitee route for a veteran RP if they are too close to 40 by the deadline.

      Free agent signings begin on Sunday, November 4, with GM meetings Nov. 7-9. The deadline to set the 40-man roster is November 20.

  8. Pat — I count 34 spots filled: 19 P, 3 C, 7 IF and 5 OF. Also, it is very possible that one of Nix or Schierholtz goes. I suppose that Nix stays as a LH power bat off the bench, but I prefer that they deal Nix and hold Schierholtz. Also, I would not be surprised to see at least one of Savery / Valdez moved off of the 40-man. Under that scenario the roster is down to 31 to 32 spots filled.

    Under the most aggressive scenario I can image, RAJ brings in 4 new faces: CF, RF, 3B, and a BP piece. That takes us back up to 35 to 36 spots accounted for assuming all transactions occur via free agency — trades obviously add / subtract from the roster for possibly a zero net change and additional room to maneuver. In any event, it doesn’t appear that the FO will have to bend over backward to make room for May, Martin, Pettibone, Castro and Collier.

  9. Hey Matt. Fine write-up though I have an observation regarding Rule V eligibility. ‘After 19′ and ‘before 18′ leaves a two-year gap in eligibility rules. I believe it should read “4 years if signed at age 19 or older” and “5 years if signed at age 18 or younger” (i.e. 16-18)

    1. I also assume this means if they signed at, say, 18 years and 364 days (extreme case, obviously), they would count in the 18 or under category? I’m not intimately familiar with the Rule V since it’s largely irrelevant for the Phils these days (i.e. no more Victorino’s, the most you can hope foe is a Herndon).

    1. I guess we should ignore trolls like this guy, but, assuming for a moment that it is trolling and not simple ignorance, I’d say it’s kind of a strong example of solid trolling. Irrelevant insult and absurd statement back to back, then a point which could be argued, but isn’t supported by any evidence, followed by as asinine insult. It’s the art of trollery distilled into two sentences.

      Of course if he’s serious (shudder).

      1. I think the troll fails because its intentions are too obvious. The best trolls are the ones where you’re not sure if they’re trolling or not. Dpatrone just went a little too far, to the point where the statement is too ridiculous to get anybody annoyed, I think.

        1. Recognizing that some don’t like or agree with RAJ and that there may be an honest difference of opinion regarding whether to protect Collier, in light of the fact that it is almost universally accepted that Martin needs to be protected (especially considering his performance this year, high draft spot (i.e. he would be fairly well known to all teams), and upside), I am not sure what Dpatrone has against Martin. As he did not provide any information about the gum on his shoe to which he compares Martin’s value, there is no way to effectively rebut such an insightful comment. Instead, I will simply guess that he is being a troll for Halloween, though lacking in any real effort.

  10. Wow, I know DPatrone and he is a dear friend of mine and knows the Phils well. But he doesn’t follow the minor leagues very closely and probably didn’t realize just how talented Martin and Collier are, especially the former. In fact, you could make a case that right now he looks like the best pitching prospect in the organization, he was flat out dominating after being acquired from the Dodgers.

    I agree with those who suggest that May, Martin, Pettibone, Collier and Castro get protected. I also think there is NO way they let Diekman go, heck, he was one of the guys that Papelbon mentioned when discussing the potential dominance of the Phillie bullpen next season. Savery will be let go, the Phils have gone as far as they can with him.

    I think the Phils try and leave two spots open for a free agent signing and a possible Rule 5 pick, probably a minor league third baseman.

    1. Fair enough. To the extent that I offended you or him, I apologize. It is hard to identify/separate the trolls from those expressing honest opinions when no reasoning/justification is provided for any inflammatory comments.

  11. Macho…oh I wasn’t offended but he is no troll. We talk often on the phone and he is one of the most knowledgeable Phillie phans I know…but follows the minor leagues very sparingly. In fact, I am shocked he was on this site. Anyways, he is wrong in his assessment but is no troll.

    1. CalifDreamin…..understand, a simple mistake by your friend DPatrone, must have posted on the wrong website. Must have thought this was philly.com. or the WIP website.

  12. Herndon was released by Toronto. I wonder if he’ll come back or if he’ll wait to see if anyone else offers to add him to their 40 man roster.

  13. Does Gabriel Lino make it to the Phillies top 30 prospects?

    I was also thinking of all the high end prospects the Phillies traded in the last years. Would some quality prospects be lost to the rule 5 draft since there’s no way the Phillies could’ve protected everyone?

    1. I tentatively have him in the 30-40 range, he didn’t regress as much as he was passed by the 2012 draft guys.

      Out of guys traded who are still in the minors Gose, Cosart, Taylor, and Villar would need to be protected. There would have been trades regardless it is a matter if they could have used lesser prospects or gotten better returns.

  14. Only 2 of the trades really surprised me. The Lee trade only because they didn’t shop him and the Pence trade when D. Santana was the PTBNL. Cosart, Singleton and ? should’ve been enough.

    Is Seth Rosin sitting outside the top 30 as well?

      1. Wow, Collier–one of the team’s best minor league OFs the second half of last year–and Colvin, a problematic but by all accounts still very talented reliever are on the bubble for your top 30? You must have a much higher estimation of the Phillies farm system overall than I do!

        If we were to do that “sleepers for next year” list that we did last year I would pick Colvin. He’s been a big time mess, for sure, but by all accounts he has great stuff and I could see it playing well if they move him to the bullpen full time next year. He’ll start in Reading, which puts him within striking distance of the majors. Not saying he’d make my top 10, but I could see him moving fast if he puts it together.

        1. This all still very early in the process, but Collier is 26 and Colvin is 25 on my list right now. The system doesn’t have a ton of impact talent but it is fairly deep. For those two it is hard to put them higher at their positions. At OF, Collier is behind Tocci, LGreene, Gillies, Cozens, and Ruf. For RHP Colvin is behind Martin, May, Pettibone, Watson, Gueller, Aumont, DeFratus, and Bonilla. I was really surprised as I put together the lists just how many guys there are, between 15 and 40 there isn’t a whole lot of difference and you can make a ton of arguments.

  15. Thanks. I love this site, but don’t do a ton of research like some on here. It’s crazy how you can look at different rankings and they come out so different based on what the evaluator rates as a higher priority.

  16. I think an article on which CURRENT 40-may players are on the bubble.
    Perhaps when we get close to the Rule 5 Draft when it is more clear on the number of spots that need to be cleared will be after any Trades and FA signings take place.

  17. Awesome post. I always have questions about who is eligible.

    Rule 5 draft is fun for Minor League junkies because of the speculation of it all. Nearly zero cost to obtain a possible All-Star player. Actually similar to the Amateur Draft, but will Rule5, at least these players are wanna be major leaguers with a history in professional baseball to scout upon.

    I actual like to watch the decision-making needed by the Major League teams in constructing their 40-man rosters. Franchises have to act (instead of just talk) upon how good they think their player will be and then gamble that another team does not see something they missed.

    I was shocked last year that Jiwan James was not chosen. I will again be surprised but it appears his is the same player he was last year when not selected. Collier is in about the same situation but since Phillies sent him to AFL and he is succeeding they likely need to protect him.

    Casto is an interesting case because the Phillies may not want to be locked into him but also do not want to lose him for nothing. (It brings back bad memories that Castro was rumored to be PTBNL in Pence deal when Santanna went instead.)

    Rodriguez will likely be a relief pitcher if retained so I doubt Phillies protect him. He could make a nice find as a long reliever for a second rate team.

    So here’s my guess on Phillies 40-man decisions (actually surprised both Ruf and Cloyd were added):
    Removed/Cut: Valdes, Savery
    Added: Martin, May, Pettibone, Collier
    Gillies presence makes James accessible and Castro profiles as 4th OF.

  18. enjoyed reading the above replys……I agree with Matt, in that I do not see any true high end prospects in the phillies farm system. However, they seem to have quite a few good prospects. Especially, RH arms.

  19. Ok after looking at the current 40 man roster I can see the Phillies taking Wigginton, Pierre, Schneider, Polanco, Valdes, Contreras, Valdes, Schwimer and Savery off the 40 man because none of those are guys that are anything that would be missed. Schwimer can’t keep his mouth shut and I know that it bothers the Phillies when he talks out of turn especially his little temper tantrum about being injured when he was sent down. Do they waive him or trade him I don’t know but I think he’s off the 40 man by the rule 5 draft. So by my calculation that’s 31 spots taken on the 40 man and leaves room for 9 additions whether they’re signings or add ons to the roster before the rule 5. I don’t think the Phillies make that many additions from free agency I see 3 maybe 4 signings and the rest would be add-ons prior to the Rule 5.

    1. That’s utter nonsense. They might trade him but he’s a major league arm that will get better, he won’t be released. He probably was hurt, he just happens to have balls and spoke up but he should have done it only in private.

    2. That’s silly. You don’t dump cheap talent because a kid stands up for himself. I want a releiver who has some backbone. I don’t require that rookies regard themselves as slaves.

  20. Thanks for the work. I was worried about the upcoming Rule 5. It brought out a lot of good conversation. Only a couple of so called mother hens that get their panties bunched up because a guy is either lost or blowing off steam. I don’ usually do it but you might want to move your rankings up. It all fits. Then you can adjust later during the boring period. Thanks again. I was going to do it, at some point for myself and a couple friends. This was more fun. .

  21. Out of the list I would only protect Martin, Collier, Pettibone, Friend and May of course. My cuts from the 40 Man would be Savery Schwimmer, Valdes and I would probably try to trade Lindblom and Schierholtz. I wasn’t impressed by Lindblom and I think BJ can fill his role nicely. I like Nate but when healthy Nix is a solid OBP guy with OF versatility and 1B if needed.

    Great job with the write ups Matt…

    1. Your list is pretty good, but I wouldn’t protect Friend unless there was a free roster spot due to trades and other moves – he’s just not very valuable and, for all of our hand-wringing over Schwimmer, he’s not better or more valuable than him. Agree that Lindblom should be traded – the sooner the better. I also like Nix, but the problem with him is that his platoon differential is so significant that you can’t keep him in a game once a lefty is inserted. I think Schierholz still has a little untapped upside. I would have him in a modified platoon with Ruf in left – there would be some (perhaps many) games in which Ruf would still start against righties, but Schierholz would regularly be a late inning defensive replacement. I could easily see a modified Ruf/Schierholz platoon producing a 3 WAR in left. You put Melky or BJ in center and Dom in right with Mayberry as another outfielder and you’re in business.

      1. You make an excellent point about Nix’s splits against LH’s. I like Nate so I would like to see him get a shot at more playing time and I think he possibly gets you a little more in return. If I am going to make the gamble to put Ruf in LF (I am) then I am going all in so no platoon. I will make late inning defensive changes where necessary and for that I like Mayberry.

        I don’t think BJ is coming here. I don’t see RAJ giving up that 16 pick for him at the money he will command. Plus I am biased I don’t like him I don’t see him as the difference maker this team needs to get over the top.

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