Post Season Report Card, Bullpen, LV and Reading

A look at the bullpen for Lehigh Valley and Reading.  Included are relievers who were called up to the Phils in the later part of the season after the rash of injuries hit the Phillies who will be battling for roster sports next year. Next up will be the Clearwater and Lakewood bullpens.

Lehigh Valley

Phillippe Aumont, 23, Acquired from Seattle in 2009; 41 games, 3-1 with a 4.26ERA; 15 saves; 44.1IP 34H 34BB 59K; 3HR allowed; 1.84 GO/AO; .209 opp. avg., 1.53 WHIP; 6.9BB/12.0K per nine; .213 vs. LH, .196 vs. RH, .219 with RISP. Aumont had a brutal April, went on the DL, and came back refreshed and fairly dominant until August.  His issue remains control.  His “stuff” can be filthy, but he gets himself in trouble with walks, which at a rate of 7 per nine innings will not fly at the major league level.  Other than one bad outing for the Phils, Aumont has looked pretty good in late August/September.  Grade: B-. 2013: I dont think he makes the Phils out of SPring Training but I expect to see him in Philly permanently come July.

Tyson Brummett, 28, Phils 7th round pick in 2007; 44 games (8 starts) between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 5-6 with a 3.20 ERA; 2 saves; 90IP 74H 29BB 83K; 4HR allowed; 1.24 GO/AO; .226 opp. avg., 1.14 WHIP; 2.9BB/8.3K per nine; .252 vs. LH, .250 vs. RH, .258 with RISP; After five seasons of minor league medicority, Brummett was very effective in 2012 doing whatever was asked of him (start, relieve) and doing it well. I have seen Brummett dozens of times, and he threw with far more confidence than in years passed. Grade: A; 2013: I believe Brummett is a minor league free agent after completing six minor league seasons and will go where he has the best shot to pitch regularly in a defined role.

Mike Cisco, 25, Phils 36th round pick in 2008; 40 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 5-3 with a 1.80 ERA; 3 saves; 75IP 66H 26BB 58K; 1.36 GO/AO; .244 opp. avg., 6 HR allowed; 1.22 WHIP; 3.1BB/7.0K per nine; Cisco was extremely solid this year but is far from overpowering.  I dont expect him to be protected on the 40 man.  Grade: B+; 2013: Lehigh Valley bullpen

Justin DeFratus, 24, Phils 11th round pick in 2007; 17 games; 0-1 with a 2.49 ERA; 3 saves; 21.2IP 15H 3BB 22K; 1.93 GO/AO; .202 opp. avg., .038 vs. LH, .292 vs. RH, .174 with RISP; 0.83 WHIP; 1.3BB/9.1K per nine. DeFratus missed the first three months of the season, but when he came back he looked like the DeFratus of 2011.  Pinpoint control and overpowering at times.  Grade: B, simply because of injury…would have been an A.  2013: I think he makes the Phillies out of Spring Training.

Jake Diekman, 25, Phils 30th round pick in 2007; 25 games; 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA for Lehigh Valley; 7 saves; 26.2IP 19H 13BB 37K; 1.53 GO/AO; .196 opp. avg., 1.20 WHIP; 4.4BB/12.5K per nine; .200 vs. LH, .194 vs. RH, .185 with RISP. DIekman was outstanding for Lehigh Valley with marginal control issues.  Those marginal control issues became became much more signirifcant in Diekman’s time in Philly.  Grade: A-; 2013: Lehigh Valley to start

Jeremy Horst, 28, Acquired from Cinncinati in 2011; 26 games; 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA for Lehigh Valley; 2 saves; 38.1IP 43H 18BB 32K; 3 HR allowed; 0.90 GO/AO; .283 opp. avg., .340 vs. LH, .257, vs. RH, .304 with RISP, 1.59 WHIP; 4.2BB/7.5K per nine.  Horst was adequate for Lehigh Valley, was called up because of a series of injuries and has pitched very well for the Phillies. Grade: B 2013: Bouncing back and forth between Lehigh Valley and Philly.

Juan Morillo, 28, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 40 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA; 59IP 47H 55BB 67K; 0.93 GO/AO; .219 opp. avg., 1.73 WHIP; 8.4BB/10.2K per nine; FOr Lehigh Valley: 8 games, 1-0 with a 3.07 ERA; 14.2IP 10H 11BB 22K; .185 opp. avg., 6.8B/13.5K per nine. Morillo started the season with little to no idea where the ball was going to go.  By years end, he had a small idea.  He has a very live arm and is very difficult to hit.  He impressed me the two or three times I saw him, but the walk numbers inhibit success. Grade: C 2013: Another organization

David Purcey, 30, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 47 games; 1-4 with a 4.37 ERA; 57.2IP 57H 33BB 63K; 0.68 GO/AO; .260 opp. avg., 1.56 WHIP; 5.2BB/8.3K per nine; .265 vs. LH, .257 vs. RH, .255 with RISP. Purcey basically did what was asked of him this year. Like others, control was an issue.  Grade: C; 2013: There are too many guys with bigeer upsides for Purcey to stick around.

JC Ramirez, 24, Acquired from Seattle in 2009; 45 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 3-4 with a 4.01 ERA; 4 saves; 67.1IP 56H 31BB 52K; 6 HR allowed; 0.78 GO/AO; .230 opp. avg., 1.29 WHIP; 4.1BB/7.0K per ninel For Lehigh Valley: 29 games; 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA; 4oIP 36H 17BB 34K; 0.83 GO/AO; .250 opp. avg. Ramirez was up and down in 2012 in his transition to the bullpen, probably slightly more up than down.  He has no options remaining which puts the Phils in a predicament. Still only 24 and with talent but can the Phils afford to allow him to develop in the big club’s bullpen?  Grade: C+ 2013: Elsewhere

BJ Rosenberg, 27, Phils 13th round pick in 2008; 25 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA; 3 saves; 62IP 54H 18BB 73K 5 HR allowed; 1.39 GO/AO; .234 opp. avg., 1.16 WHIP; 2.6BB/10.6K per nine.  Rosenberg was outstanding in the minors before getting called up on two occasions by the Phillies, finishing his year with Philadelphia. He pitched much better than his numbers indicated for the Phils, especially late in the year. Grade: B+ 2013: Rosenberg has put himself on the map and may have moved passed Schwimer on the organizational depth chart. He either makes the team as the 12th pitcher or is the first call up out of the ‘pen from lehigh Valley

Joe Savery, 26, Phils 1st round pick in 2007; 20 games; 1-1 woth a 4.24 ERA; 2 saves; 23.1IP 27H 9BB 26K: 3HR allowed; 1.93 GO/AO; .281 opp. avg., 1.54 WHIP; 3.5BB/10.0K per nine; .393 vs. LH, .235 vs. RH, .385 with RISP.  Grade: D; Savery was not good for the Phils and also not good for Lehigh Valley. 2013: His days in the organization I believe are numbered. Even as a 1st round pick, there are just too many guys more effective then he is now and has the potential to be.

Michael Schwimer, 26, Phils 14th round pick in 2008; 15 games for Lehigh Valley; 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA; 6 saves; 18.1IP 17H 5BB 19K; 1.18 GO/AO; .239 opp. avg. 1.20 GO/AO; 2.4BB/9.3K per nine. Schwimer threw pretty well for Lehigh Valley and had been coming around to throw well for the Phillies when a disputed injury landed Schwimer on the shelf for the final 6 weeks of the season. Not injured enough for the DL, yet too injured to pitch Schwimer was in an organizational no mans land during late August thru September. Grade: C. 2013: I say he spends time in a major league bullpen but it wouldnt surprise me to see him in another uniform.

Reading

Lisalverto Bonilla, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2008; 31 games between Clearwater and Reading; 3-2 with a 1.55ERA; 4 saves; 46.1IP 31H 21BB 64K; 1 HR allowed; 1.03 GO/AO; .191 opp. avg., 1.12 WHIP; 4.1BB/12.4K per nine; Bonilla was throwing exceptionally well prior to his season ending horsing around in the hotel prior to the Futures Game in July.  Grade: B+ (would have been an “A” but for the stupid injury) 2013: Reading to re-establish himself in April, then Lehigh Valley by mid May assuming all goes well.

Ryan Duke, 24, Phils 25th round pick in 2011 draft; 34 games across all four levels of the organization; 1-3 with a 3.69 ERA; 3 saves;  46.1IP 44H 20BB 64K; 3 HR allowed; 0.73 GO/AO; .254 opp. avg., 1.38 WHIP; 3.9BB/12.4K per nine; Duke looked good in Lakewood and CLearwater, was promoted to Reading where he struggled before being shut down for the year in late July.  Grade: B-; 2013: Reading bullpen

Justin Friend, 26, Acquired in the Minor league Rule 5 draft in 2010; 50 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 4-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 25 saves; 54IP 45H 18BB 54K; 1.30 GO/AO; .228 opp. avg., 1.16 WHIP; 2.7BB/9.0K per nine. Overall an oustanding season for Friend but he had to be disappointed in his performance in the short lived chance he received in Lehigh Valley. In 12 games for the ‘Pigs he was 2-1 with a 4.40ERA but the opposition was hitting .339 against him, as opposed to just .178 during his extended time in Reading. Friend’s ERA in AA was a microscopic 0.23 in 38 games. Grade A- 2013: I hope he received another shot in Lehigh Valley, although I think he will be a minor league free agent.

Jay Johnson, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 31 games between Clearwater and Reading; 3-1 with a 4.50ERA; 32IP 35H 20BB 34K; 1.72 WHIP; 5.6BB/9.6K per nine; 1.20 GO/AO; .264 opp. avg., .219 vs. LH, .310 vs. RH, .286 with RISP. Johnson is another guy who was killed by the walk this year.  Very effective against lefties but the high walk rate put him on the verge of a poor year. He is heading to Arizona for the Fall League which will be insightful to see what, if anything the Phils have in Johnson. Grade: C 2013: Reading to start

Tyler Knigge, 23, Phils 12th round pick in 2010; 55 games; 4-1 with a 1.43 ERA between Clearwater and Reading; 11 saves; 69.1IP 51H 23BB 70K; 1 HR allowed; 1.16 GO/AO; .204 opp. avg., 1.06 WHIP; 3.0BB/9.2K per nine; For Reading: 21 games; 0-2 with a 2.92 ERA; 7 saves; .263 opp. avg., 9.0K per nine; 1.48 WHIP. Outanding year for Knigge who has put himself on the radar screen. Gave up just 3 earned runs in 44/2 innings for Clearwater before being called up.  He is heading to the Arizona Fall League and if he dominates could end up in Lehigh Valley but I think a month or two in Reading to start the season would benefit him. Grade: A

Julio Rodriguez, 22, Phils 8th round pick in 2008; 29 games (22 starts); 7-7 with a 4.23 ERA; 134IP 121H 76BB 136K; 0.56 GO/AO; .243 opp. avg., 1.47 WHIP; 5.1BB/9.1K per nine; 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in 7 releief appearances; .275 vs. LH, .220 vs. RH, .200 with RISP. I am admittedly confused by both that we have in Rodriguez and what the Phils are trying to do with him. Until this year, he has put up outstanding numbers through the minors and the Phillies must decide whether to protect him on the 40 (which I doubt they will). He doesnt throw hard but still continues to get it done a majority of the time.  Walks hurt him this year. Grade: C+; 2013: Lehigh Valley bullpen

Colby SHreve, 24, Phils 6th round pick in 2008; 47 games between Lakewood, CLearwater and Reading; 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 4 saves; 78IP 72H 38BB 64K; 7HR allowed; 1.84 GO/AO; .247 opp. avg., 1.41 WHIP; 4.3BB/7.4K per nine; For Reading: 28 games; 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA; 3 saves; 43IP 43H 25BB 29K; 1.69 GO/AO; .259 opp. avg; 1.58 WHIP. Shreve got caught in a numbers game at the beginning of the season ending up in Lakewood to start the year, which was a demotion. He effectively pitched his way back to Reading but put up very pedestrian numbers for the RPhils. Grade: C+ 2013: Reading bullpen

Kyle Simon, 22,Acquired from Baltimore in 2012; When Simon was traded to the Phils, he was 2-8 with a 3.96 ERA in 14 starts at High A in the Orioles organization. He was converted to a reliever immediately by the Phils. Between Clearwater and Reading, Simon threw in 20 games and was 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 3 saves; 39.2IP 22H 6BB 35K; 4.50 GO/AO; .160 opp. avg., 0.71 WHIP; 1.4BB/7.9K per nine. Simon simply dominated after he was acquired in the Jim Thome deal and is headed to the Arizona Fall League. Grade: A (for his work in the Phils organization) 2013: Reading ‘pen until early June, then Lehigh Valley call up if successful

Jordan Whatcott, 27, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 44 games between CLearwater and Reading; 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA and 2 saves; 83.1IP 86H 36BB 62k; 1.14 Go/AO; .270 opp. avg., 1.46 WHIP; 3.9BB/6.7K per nine; For Reading: 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA in 38 games (7 starts); 1.61 WHIP; 4.0BB/6.3K per nine; .316 vs. LH, .283 vs. RH, .254 with RISP. Whatcott played a key role as a “swing man/innings eater” and did so with a modicum of effectiveness, but he tops out as a AA pitcher it appears. Grade: C 2013:  I think Whatcott probably gets caught in the numbers game.

74 thoughts on “Post Season Report Card, Bullpen, LV and Reading

  1. I have neither Tyson Brummett nor Justin Friend as minor league free agents. They signed in ’07 and I have the signing in ’06 as the date where 6 year minor league free agency begins. It is 6 full seasons and the year they sign and play in the short season does not count.
    Also believe there is too much of the must remove from organization thing. They will need at least around 12 pitchers at every level, and they don’t need to get rid of players without having to, unless they are a crashing failure , enough so to be deemed incapable of minor league middle relief role, and if they get that minor league relief role they can be able to increase that role.

  2. My take having seen these guys quite a bit – I ignore the guys who did not impress me.

    Rosenberg – Very impressive. Throws 94-97, touching 98. Can maintain velocity for many innnings. Should start the year as the team’s long man while they work on another breaking pitch for him. One more decent breaking pitch and he’s starter material. Could be a huge surprise next year.

    Aumont – His stuff is so good that he only needs to have okay control to be effective – command is not that big of an issue. Seems to be progressing. Will be on the Phillies all or most of next year.

    Diekman – Has a huge upside. Could continue to struggle next year or could be a dominant reliever. The stuff is there, but the command and control is not just yet.

    Horst – A big surprise for me. A very useful 7th to 8th inning guy for the Phillies. I trust him more than I trust Bastardo, for whatever it’s worth.

    Bonilla – If he hadn’t hurt his hand he might be in the majors right now. Has a sharp fastball and his breaking pitch is a plus plus offering (probably a change, maybe a splitter or slider). If he’s healthy and he’s not traded, he will be on the Phillies sometime next year.

    Knigge – Throws hard but does not have a quality secondary pitch yet and I’m not sure he can command his fastball at this point. A work in progress, but a good arm.

    Simon – I’ve never seen him pitch, but the early results are extremely encouraging.

    Savery – As good as gone.

    Shreve – May actually have a future but not anytime soon.

    Schwimer – I have great respect for him, but goodness, what the heck was he thinking this year, taking the organization on with respect to his demotion? Is he out of his mind? Absent a full and personal apology behind the scenes I doubt he’ll be with the organization next year.

    Ramirez – A throw in in a trade.

    Morillo – I think they will try to hold on to him because you know what, guys that throw 98 and 99 MPH don’t grow on trees. They might try him in a starter role to get him innings and iron out the control issues. All upside, no downside, but the odds of him sticking are still fairly low.

    1. Agree catch, particularly with respect to Bonilla who wouldn’t surprise me if he broke with the big club out of ST.

      Also agree with Gregg with respect to De Fratus. He should be a lock to open 2013 with the big club and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitching in high leverage situations in April.

    2. Wow Catch – you think Bonilla is that close to the Phils? That’s exciting.
      If he’s in Reading or LV I plan on making a trip to see him early next year. If he’s in Philly, that will be much easier to go see!!

      1. Yeah, he’s that good. After starting strong with a 1.35 ERA in Clearwater, Bonilla was promoted to Reading and got hit around a little bit in May. After that, he was lights out. He allowed no earned runs in June and July – none – and he struck out 28 in 21 innings. For the year, he had a combined ERA of 1.55 and held batters to about a .191 average. I saw him in person and was blown away by his out pitch. While I am very good at spotting a pitcher’s stuff when I watch at TV, at games, it’s hard to pick up on much more than a good fastball at games. Bonilla’s breaking pitch was the best breaking pitch I’ve ever seen while attending any minor or major league game and I’ve been going to major league games for about 40 years (crap, I’m getting old!).

        1. It was not the most unhittable pitch I’ve ever seen, however. That distinction goes to Sid Fernandez’s 89 MPH fastball. Not fast at all, but almost entirely unhittable – a pitch that inexplicably exploded on the batter approximately 10 feet from the plate. One of the many mysteries of baseball.

    3. caych……I assume with Aumont, when you say his command is not that big an issue is that his ball’s movement is so extreme it compensates for the command short-comings?

      1. Yes, Aumont’s combined velocity and movement are so exceptional that, for the most part, if he throws pitches for strikes (anywhere in the strike zone), he will get more than his fair share of outs. In terms of pure stuff, Aumont is probably in the top 2-4% in the major leagues. But his control is below average right now, so he’s only a slightly above average pitcher at this point, but, clearly, his potential is enormous. When he is on, every pitch Aumont throws is a plus pitch.

    4. Can’t say that I have a ton of “respect” for Schwimer at this point. Was great that he posted some stories on the site but that quickly ended after taking some grief over his refusal to sign baseballs for kids because they might sell his autograph.

      Next was the complaints about how minor leagues don’t make any money and finally you have the complaining about his demotion. Guy seems to have an inflated sense of his own self-worth to me.

      1. Also note that common thread throughout these incidents is related to $$$. I certainly have no problem with him getting every penny he can but I do have to question the priorities a bit.

        1. You forgot about him twittering about those players getting called up before the organization had a chance to announce it.

        1. I sort of understand his point (he is trying to sign for fans and not just for business people looking to make money off of him), but when you examine the assumptions that he had to use to take that position, you begin to scratch your head. First, he assumes his autograph has notable value – pretty heady stuff for a guy who, at the time, was a low profile minor league relief pitcher. I am not sure he comprehends his current standing in the baseball world, which was further evidenced by his puzzling/entitled conduct after his injury when he decided it was a wise idea to challenge the Phillies’ decision to send to the minors. Second, does he really think he can divine who is a person collector and who is interested in selling his autograph? Third, for crying out loud, why the heck is concerned about all this? If you are going to sign, then sign and be a nice guy about it (assuming people are polite – and he did make a good point about not signing for rude people and I agree with him). If you are not going to sign, the don’t sign. Creating these arbitrary rules about who you sign for and what part of the ball you will and will not sign – it’s ridiculous. Focus more on pitching and less on irrelevant minutae that makes you look like a jerk altough, truthfully, I don’t think he is a jerk at all. I just think he needs to reassess his priorities and let the other stuff roll off his back.

          1. What was the term he used? Schwimmocity? (Or something like that).

            Pretty much says all we need to know about the guy. Nothing like an average minor league relief pitcher coming up with their own phrases like they invented pitching, or are a future HOF’er. I hope he’s out of baseball in 2-3 years. Can’t stand the guy.

            1. Matt, I think Michael Schwimmer has worn out his welcome with the Phillies and will be part of trade for a 3B, experienced reliever or CF this off season.

            2. Schwimlocity was just a term he used to describe something everyone already already knew- that releasing the ball closer to home plate makes it seem like a faster pitch from the batter’s viewpoint. I don’t see how that’s acting like he ‘invented pitching’.

            3. Probably not the best way to describe it by me. Just like a “hey, look at me guys, I’m a genius for figuring this out. I’m even going to name it after me, because I’m the only one who could possibly do this”

              He’s a first class a$$hole in every sense of the word.

      2. I really don’t see any of those incidents as being a big deal, given the relatively petty nature of them. Did the guy cheat on his wife with a Hooters girl? Did he ever try to fight his catcher in the dugout? Lets try not to blow these incidents out of proportion…

      3. I think you are combining two different autograph issues. One was his refusing to sign the sweet spot on the ball or pages of cards so collectors don’t go try to make money off him.

        The other was him refusing to sign a ball for a kid who was being rude to him. He said he would sign if the kid asked him nicely to which that kids parents scolded him for trying to teach their child manners.

        1. That’s right, Chewy. I honestly don;t have any issues with anything that Schwimer has done. He’s just smarter than the average bear in baseball. If Schwimer did tell the training staff that he was injured prior to his demotion, then the Phillies did violate the CBA. Why not protest? It is rightfully his money and servicetime being cheated. I also question the move because Charlie had been using him in high-leverage situations until his demotion and he had performed very well until his final couple of outings. So the guy pitches himself into a prominent bullpen role, then gets hurt and tries to pitch through it, losing a game or 2 in the process. Then he reports the injury and is promptly demoted. He probably didn’t do himself any favors in the organization but this smells very fishy to me.

    5. I missed DeFratus. I like him, but I view him more as a middle reliever right now. A pretty darned good middle reliever, but not a set-up guy.

      By the way, we still have Stutes and Herndon. We basically have to trade some guys in the bullpen even if we don’t sign any FAs and I can all but guarantee you that the team will sign at least one and more likely two FAs of some type (one good lefty specialist would be very useful). Someone mentioned that they would like to sign Madson to a one year deal. I’m all for that, if he’s healthy and it doesn’t cost more than about $5-6 million.

      As for who to trade, I’d get rid of Bastardo for sure. He strikes out a lot of guys and is young, so he will have some trade value. But once he could no longer touch 94 or 95 with his fastball, he became a three-run homer waiting to happen (and happen it did!!!).

      1. I don’t ever remember Bastardo touching 94-95 on his fastball. Even in scouting reports prior to making his MLB debut. Can you reference when he did?

        Oh and only two relivers have a higher SO/9 than Bastardo – Kimbrel and Chapman. Yup, let’s trade that guy.

        1. Bastardo was routinely hitting the mid 90s when he first came up, in late 2010 and again in early to mid 2011. By late last year, however, he was sitting 90-92, and occasionally touched 93 (much as he does now) and that’s when the trouble began.

          Will he regain a little velocity? I have no idea.

          May 17, 2011 – hits 94 MPH – http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_05_17_phimlb_slnmlb_1#gid=2011_05_17_phimlb_slnmlb_1&mode=plays

          July 19, 2011 – FB sitting 93 and 94 MPH.

          September 25, 2011 – FB sitting 91 and 92 – small difference that means a lot – http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_19_phimlb_chnmlb_1#gid=2011_07_19_phimlb_chnmlb_1&mode=plays

          September 19, 2012 – FB sitting 90 and 91, touching 92 http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_09_19_phimlb_nynmlb_1#gid=2012_09_19_phimlb_nynmlb_1&mode=plays

        2. By the way, I am a huge strikeout proponent so I definitely understand the value of strikeouts. The problem is that the pitchers you are comparing to Bastardo have far, far better stuff than he does and there’s a reason why their ERAs are microscopic and Bastardo’s is fairly high. They are MUCH better pitchers than he is. My concern is that Bastardo’s loss of velocity has already made him a bit vulnerable, he struggles big time with his command, and if he loses any more velocity, he will only be mediocre. In other words, I think his value is still relatively high (due to the strikeouts) but the long-term chances for his success are unclear. It should also be noted that Bastardo has a history of shoulder problems. He spent long stints on the disabled list both as a minor leaguer and a major leaguer. So, yeah, I get that he has a high strikeout percentage – but that does not necessarily mean he is a particularly good pitcher now nor does it necessarily show that he will be a good pitcher several years from now.

          1. So you’re saying that if he has no projectability we can’t project what he is? That’s incredibly confusing or obvious. And I wasn’t comparing him to Kimbrel and Chapman. They are in another class than Bastardo. I’m just pointing out that his SO/9 is in very elite company.

            1. I think the Primary issue with Bastardo is Consistency.

              You simply do not have over 14K/9 w/o a serious ability to keep hitters off balance.

              When he is on he is very hot. And I don’t buy the “Lost MPH” since he was “ON” at the end of the season, he just seemed to go hot and cold. Since his streaks tended to be quite long and not just outing to outing, it most likely boiled down to keeping his mechanics straight.

              No way I sell on this kid at this time.

            2. Off Topic (Major Leaguers) but I typed it up. At least it will be buried in the thread…

              As always it depends on the deal. If I were another team I would certainly go after Bastardo “on the cheap”. He was dominant during 80% of 2011 and still has huge K/IP numbers. The talent is there, but the results are poor. And he is ‘just’ a relief pitcher.

              If I were another team I would propose to trade a “Pierre/Sheirholtz” type for Bastardo. 4th OF types with some value on a team. Bastardo is at least a lefty specialist with a chance to be a true setup guy.

              A more interesting guy would be a Mayberry for Bastardo swap. Mayberry failed in his starter role early this season but still has platoon capability and is a nice bench player with power,speed,defense.
              I personally like Bastardo better since I think he could be an inconsistent closer type. (I am thinking like Brian Fuentes who just lost it after a couple seasons.)

            3. No, that’s your charcterization of what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that: (a) I think that, with the way Bastardo pitches, he loses effectiveness rapidly with any loss of velocity; (b) he has already lost velocity; (c) unlike many other young pitchers, where a further loss of velocity would not be a big concern at this age, Bastardo has a history of shoulder injuries which raises concerns that he will continue to lose velocity, thus further, reduce his effectiveness; and (d) for these reasons, I think Bastardo faces the prospect of a premature decline in performance which might make it advisable to trade him now, while his value is somewhat higher (particularly since the Phillies have a glut of young relievers and many other pressing needs). While you may agree or disagree with those statements, but I don’t think they are confusing and I doubt they were obvious. But I assume you disagree and think we should keep Bastardo and, certainly, it’s possible that Bastardo could turn things around (and it’s not unheard of for young pitchers to regain lost velocity – it happens all the time). Personally, I wouldn’t bet too much on that, but that’s just my take.

            4. But I still root for the guy. If they keep him, I’d like nothing more than to be proven wrong, I just see things about him that concern me. Perhaps it’s just a question of him improving his command.

            5. Your statements are all plausible, I just don’t like selling low on a guy, especially a young, left-handed guy, and there’s no way his season could be construed as anything but low. I hear your point that his value could go even lower, but how much are teams going to give us to gamble on a bounce back? Enough for us to not keep him and get our own bounce back, helping our team next year and increasing his value? I’m talking another year to get his value back up, and to keep our left-handed depth. If his velo goes back up, he has eighth inning/back-up closer stuff. But it’s less of a risk for us to keep him than it is for a team to give us something of great value. And I’m in the camp that believes we don’t need to sign more than one FA reliever (8th. inning/back-up closer, what Contreras was supposed to be). As you say, we already have a numbers problem.

        3. He did it REALLY early in 2011 before he became the set up guy. He was more in the 91-93 mph range though.

          1. I can verify that if the pitch tracker on MLB.com is accurate. He could reach 95 in ’11 and I never saw him above 93 this year. I see more on MLB.com than on the tube.

    6. Oddly I think I either completely agree with you, or completely disagree with you about the pitchers you have mentioned. I’m looking for a middle ground, but haven’t seen it on a cursory glance.

      I agree on Rosenberg, Aumont, Diekman, and Bonilla. I keep hoping they switch Rosenberg and Bonilla back to starters (and work with them on another breaking/offspeed pitch) because what they are currently working with looks absolutely dominant. If they could develop an average curve, for example, they could easily be starters at the major league level (I think Rosenberg would be a 5, whereas Bonilla could be a 2 with that change he has). Also on Diekman, if he gets his stuff under control, you’re right, he’ll be dominant. Even if he doesn’t, though, he’s already a dominant lefty specialist, so he has a place on the team already. My word, I would fear for my life batting lefty against him. Especially if he hurls one at the backstop during my at bat.

      I disagree about Horst, Bastardo, and Morillo. Horst has certainly had a good year, but I just don’t see him repeating it. His offerings, while not bad, are nothing that indicate the amount of success he’s had. Bastardo is the exact opposite, in my opinion. He’s pitching with great stuff and doing what he should be doing, just getting bad results. Think Hamels in ’09 (obviously not comparing the pitchers, just to point out how bad luck can tinge perception). You said that you didn’t think he could be effective without the speed that you also say he has lost (I’m not sure I agree that he has lost speed, but that isn’t important right now). If he couldn’t be, he wouldn’t be striking out major league hitters at such a ridiculous clip still. In addition, his peripheral stats are generally better across the board than last year. He had a small uptick in walks, but a huge uptick in K’s which more than balanced that out. He also induced more ground balls and fewer fly balls, while keeping his IFFB rate very high. His HR/FB and IFH rates were the main culprits for his “bad” year, but he can’t control them and they were both abnormally high. Really the only troubling thing was how high his LD rate was , but that’s not necessarily a reflection of him pitching poorly so much as the hitters squaring up the ball well. All in all, I’d much rather have Bastardo than Horst. As for Morillo, you’re right in that fireballers are generally rare, so usually a team will keep them around, but the Phils actually have a good amount of them at the moment with Aumont, Rosenberg, Diekman, and others (De Fratus) to a lesser extent. I don’t think they’d mind keeping him around, but he’d be way low on our depth chart, so I think he goes elsewhere.

  3. My big disagreement is on Aumont, I think he has moved well up the BP depth chart. The control isn’t always there but his stuff makes him a huge weapon. I think he is guaranteed a spot out of Spring Training the only question in my mind is does he show enough control to the front office to be the “8th inning guy” or will they have to go out and sign one.

    1. Yup. Charlie trusts him. I would expect him to make the club next spring over JDF, though I think the latter will be the better reliever long-term.

  4. There’s an article on baseball america about Aumont, can any subscriber check that out for us and maybe give us a summary?

    1. It is the normal year end quick wrap up. No real new things regarding his stuff (all three pitches are at least plus), has some quotes about his disappointment when other LHV relievers were called up before him. Control is the problem, if he solves it he could be dominant.

  5. Kind of fun to compare these lists to the Early Sleeper 2012 discussion we had last October.

    http://phuturephillies.com/2011/10/11/open-discussion-early-sleeper-prospects-for-2012/

    My early sleeper was Tyler Knigge. Lots of mentions of Cloyd, JRod, Gillies, Giles and others on here. Also, quite a few picks that didn’t pan out so well. I will be attending the first 3 games of the AFL and will try to post some observations and pictures. Thanks for all the work you have put in to these lists, gregg.

    1. Knowing that scouting box scores is notoriously bad in the AFL due to the high offense environment it will be nice to have some first hand reports. Since this likely going to make Asche look a whole lot better than he is (I suspect he will put up superstar type numbers). I am really interested in Knigge and Simon and really what their pitches do movement and location wise, since Simon doesn’t have the velocity (but supposedly has the movement) and Knigge needs that secondary pitch to have a future.

    2. Crazy thread. Interesting that in all those posts, nobody said Darin Ruf or Cody Asche. Minor league baseball is weird, y’all.

      1. One person said Cody Asche. Allentown I think. It was an interesting read that thread. I had Leandro Castro as my sleeper and thought Morgan and Wright would rocket up through the system. I’m proud of those predictions, even if I don’t have much faith in Castro’s prospects of doing much.

        1. I didn’t respond in that post, but I did comment on various guys throughout the preseason. My biggest miss was, by far, Eldemire, who I saw as a possible breakout candidate. I missed completely on Asche, Morgan, Quinn, and Ruf. I hit on Wright and Gillies (once I saw him in ST I was hooked). I’ve also never been sold on James or Altherr. Not sure what I said, if anything, about Hernandez.

    3. Very interesting thread. Let’s just say, through my interpretation of it, some of the ubiquitous Uber-experts on here didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory. One individual currently noted for going on and on about people who touted Rizzotti, looks like he was one of them. And touting Carlos Valenzuela on the day it is becoming known on here he was released by the organization, priceless.

  6. ty. bill that was great to read. not many of us experts got one right, laughting at me asking about franco. and getting rip. that was funny, to me cause i worded it wrong, all i was asking was how could he at the time be so highly rated ,with not great numbers. didnt know he was top 20 prospect ,thats why i asked , funny stuff not one ruf if i read it right,Some cloyd people, but i still cant believe this kid is a major league pitcher,

    1. Well the Cloyd thing is up for debate (he is a fly ball pitcher in a park that doesn’t really hold them). It is an interesting read, I feel proud to go 1/4 and completely nail the Morgan pick, but that is the nature of prospects and the nature of amateurs trying to guess their futures.

      btw is there anyway you could use the reply option more, it gets difficult to follow who you are replying to with your comments.

  7. De Fratus is interesting. With the Phils this year his fastball is pretty much always 92-94, but there were reports previously that he could touch 98. Is he still building arm strength after the injury or is the velo just not there anymore? I guess we’ll get an answer next year.

    1. I think he’s building arm strength. I don’t know if he’ll ever hit 98 (if he even did) but when he first came up this year he was 90-92, now he’s been consistently 92-95 (touching 96).

      His velo’s up from last year also.

      1. I heard reports on him touching 98 in the AFL in 2010, I want to say they were by way of Goldstein when he had him as a sleeper prospect there

  8. Rosenberg is quite interesting. Not sure what Phillies want to do with him. Surprised Phillies called him up when he had another year before needing to be protected. I’d like to see him as the ‘long man’ in the Majors to see if he can develop pitches while working with the big league club. Could see him in the minors if Phillies keep a vet ‘project’ instead. I wonder if he ‘progresses’ like Madson, who bounced around for awhile and then made a huge jump.

    I really do not understand why Bonilla is a reliever. I heard he had great ‘out’ pitch, enough velocity, and a developing 3rd pitch. Possible potential as #2/#3 starter should be fully explored before converting him to setup guy. Also young starters are much more valuable trade pieces then ‘good’ RPs.

    Surprised by Cisco. Seems like he has always pitched well. As with major league relievers nearly all of these guys have issues. DeFratus seems like the only guy who has consistency. I hope his stuff plays well in the Majors.

  9. Alongside DeFratus, Simon IMO is likeliest to become part of the ’13 pen.

    Aumont has some quirks in his personality/character to look out for: seeking to be recognized for an entitlement to a seat in the ’13 Phils pen. He seems not to recognize his biggest failure: an inability to throw strikes let alone “good” strikes which is his barrier to any kind of MLB career. Be cause of this MAJOR lack, his MLB career should be on hold until he gets that and to me there is no reason to believe he will be part of the pen anytime soon despite his great upside potential yet to be realized.

    1. ”Aumont has some quirks in his personality/character to look out for: seeking to be recognized for an entitlement to a seat in the ’13 Phils pen”, and what reliever does not have some type of quirk in their character!

    2. “seeking to be recognized for an entitlement to a seat in the ’13 Phils pen”

      Sorry but what is this based on? Was there an interview where he said he deserves to be in the pen next season?

    3. Aumont deserves to be in the pen because he is the second best reliever there behind Aumont. The control is the difference between him being good and elite. Of course he believes he has a spot in the 2013 pen, he is cocky and sure of himself (this actually a really good mindset to have as a reliever). In addition to huge strikeout potential he generates a ton of ground balls.

      DeFratus has a future in the pen and his ceiling is close to Aumont, but Simon is a replacement level reliever. He will come up give you a couple of years at minimum pay and you move on, and since he doesn’t need to be anywhere near the 40 man for a while I see no reason why he would break camp with the Phillies

  10. The Phils have had difficulty w Aumont since he arrived. You can look it up.Most recently is that he was PO’d when others were moved up to the bigs ahead of him. THAT indicates a sense of entitlement especially since his LV performance was mediocre.

    If he and Dieckman want to EARN a MLB placement, command is a necessity and without it they both DESERVE a place on a minor league roster. Can’t see either one lingering in a Phils uni until then. Stuff may be great but MLB hitters won’t swing at balls out of the K zone for the most part.

    That’s why Aumont will continue to be a riddle along w Dieckman,…both with superior potential yet to be realized.

    1. Art, your position about Aumont is questionable and not shared by the Phillies. Last night they left him in and he came through as he has most of the time with the Phillies. The only exceptions were in Houston and one was a fluke hit perfectly placed on the RF line. I want my relievers to be confident about themselves and still be coachable.

    2. Last night is walk was intentional to a left handed pinch hitter (he gave up an infield single which was then bunted over to second). The other problem with his control is how much his stuff moves, the hardest skill to learn is starting a pitch well out of the zone and have it break in for a strike on the corner. The players that have mastered that are elite. Aumont is not some guy with a straight fastball painting the corners, that pitch has tons of movement. His curveball and splitter have huge break and once he gets the fastball established in the zone and can occasionally throw the breaking pitches for strikes (really only has to flash it occasionally) hitters will chase them.

      When it comes to being upset about not getting the call up, it isn’t a big deal. That isn’t entitlement that is believing that you are good enough to blow away major league hitters right now.

      1. As future Hall of Fame Phillies announcer Chris Wheeler says, major league hitters do not swing and stirke out on pitches in the strike zone. Aumont’s natural movement gves him a distinct advantage.

        1. Did he actually say that? Does he watch baseball? Ask Chapman what he has to say about that quote. Hell, Hamels gets plenty of swing-and-misses on changeups in the zone.

          I get the point he was trying to make, but really?

        2. I agree and disagree. It is the mark of someone with absolutely filthy stuff to get strikeouts in the zone (Aumont’s curveball can be that pitch, just go watch the gif of the one he threw Uggla). Most strikeouts swinging are outside the zone but in order to get those swings you have to make them know you can throw strikes with it. Then a pitcher like Aumont can run the fastball off the plate or bury a curveball to get the swing outside the zone.

  11. Besides a terrible early defense , the one thing not said is the lack of a guy who can go three or even four innings. Rosenberg might fit or Cisco :). Cholly LaRusso will not work.

  12. For those who want to try to turn Bonilla back into a starter, I remember Keith Law saying he had some violence in his delivery. Might be why they switched him. With all the depth the Phillies have in young bullpen arms, I’m sure they would want him to be a starter if they thought he could.

    1. I’d like to hear something from the actual team since all we can do is speculate. I thought his velocity was already low-mid 90s as a starter.

  13. I think you suffer from the city that guys who play the game for a living look at the sport the way you do. You’re bound to be disappointed, particularly if you are now a grownup.

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