Post Season Report Card, Starting Pitching, Bottom Half

A look at the starters in the lower half of the system.  Bullpen is next up, on Thursday or Friday.

Lakewood

Colin Klevan, 21, Phils 33rd round pick in 2009; 27 starts; 9-8 with a 3.99 ERA; 151IP 151H 41BB 119K; 1.01 GO/AO; .255 opp. avg., 1.27WHIP; 2.4BB/7.1K per nine; .276 vs. LH, .236 vs. RH, .303 with RISP; 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA since August 1 (6 starts). Klevan was one of the most consistent pitchers in the organization in 2012. Grade: B+ 2012: CLearwater rotation

Lino Martinez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 24 starts; 6-5 with a 5.55 ERA: 121.2IP 136H 48BB 68K; 12 HR allowed; 0.65 GO/AO; .280 opp. avg., 1.51 WHIP; 3.5BB/5.0K per nine; .246 vs. LH, .294 vs. RH, .278 with RISP; 1-0 with a 4.46 ERA since Aug 1 (6 starts). Mediocre is giving Martinez season credit. He was hittable and walked too many without an overpowering pitch. Still though, only 20.  Grade: D+; 2013: Lakewood rotation

Ethan Stewart, 21, Phils 47th round pick in 2010; 24 games, 5-9 with a 3.89 ERA; 115.2IP 100H 65BB 81K; 8HR allowed; 0.98GO/AO; ,233 opp. avg., 1.42WHIP; 5.0BB/6.3K per nine; .264 vs LH, .220 vs. RH, .235 with RISP.  Stewart had a good year, albeit missing close to a month injured. The big lefty has earned himself a spot in the Clearwater rotation, where his primary focus should be to work on his control. Grade: B

Hoby Milner, 21, Phils 7th round pick in 2012; 14 games (13 starts); 7-3 with a 2.59 ERA; 68.1IP 54H 24BB 54K; 6HR allowed; 0.93 GO/AO; .221 opp. avg., 1.14 WHIP; 3.1BB/7.1K per nine; .196 vs. LH, .240 vs. RH, .211 with RISP. Milner had an excellent professional debut in 2012, as he should after having pitched Major college ball at University of Texas.  Grade: A-; 2013: Clearwater rotation.

Moises Rivas, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 13 games (7 starts) between GCL, Clearwater and Lakewood;3-2 with a 5.64 ERA; 44.2IP 50H 17BB 26K; 6 HR allowed; 1.50WHIP; 3.4BB/5.2K per nine; 1.10 GO/AO; .303 opp. avg. Lackluster performace for Rivas who may get caught in a 2013 numbers game. Grade: D-

Ervis Manzanillo, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 13 starts; 1-5 with a 5.37 ERA; 57IP 72H 29BB 43K; 2HR allowed; 1.14 GO/AO; .306 opp. avg., 1.77 WHIP; 4.5BB/6.7K per nine; .288 vs. LH, .314 vs. RH, .318 with RISP. Just an awful year for Manzanillo who missed the final two plus months of the season injured. His numbers have been far from impressive each of his three years in the organization.  Grade: D-; 2013: Lakewood, or more likely, elsewhere.

Williamsport

Josh Warner, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 17 starts between Lakewood and Williamsport; 5-7 with a 4.28 ERA; 90.1IP 97H 30BB 63K; 5 HR allowed; 0.99 GO/AO; .268 opp. avg., 1.40WHIP; 3.0BB/6.3K per nine; .224 vs. LH, ;.286 vs. RH, .271 with RISP; Since August 1: 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in 6 starts.  A pretty decent year for the young Australian native who should progress to Lakewood in 2013.  Grade: B-

Ulysses Joaquin, 20, SIgned as a free agent in 2010; 12 games (9 starts); 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA; 45.2IP 46H 21BB 38K; 4HR allowed; 0.98 GO/AO; .253 opp. avg; .270 vs. LH, .241 vs. RH, .288 with RISP; 1.46 WHIP; 4.1BB/7.5K per nine. Joaquin did a decent job as a starter, although with some control problems. Grade: B-; 2013: Lakewood

Kevin Brady, 22, Phils   round pick in 2013; 12 games (10 starts); between GCL and Williamsport; 2-3 with a 1.90 ERA: 42.2IP 41H 7BB 54K; 2 HR allowed; 0.70 GO/AO; .250 opp. avg., 1.12 WHIP; 1.4BB/11.3K per nine; .314 vs. LH, .230 vs. RH, .184 with RISP. Outstanding debut for Brady who was as dominant (albeit in a limited time frame) as anyone in the organization. Again, having major college experience (Clemson), the dominance isn’t completely unexpected.  Grade: A. 2013: As likely a candidate as anyone for a double jump based on age, experience, and performance. Clearwater

Manny Martinez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 14 games (13 starts) between GCL and Williamsport; 4-5 with a 3.53 ERA; 66.1IP 51H 26BB 63K 1HR allowed; 0.82 GO/AO; .213 opp. avg., 1.16WHIP; 3.5BB/8.5K per nine; For Williamsport: 7 starts, 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA; .265 opp. avg., 1.53 WHIP. Martinez dominated in the GCL (opp avg, .165) before being promoted to Williamsport where he struggled at times. Good year and progress overall.  Grade: B; 2013: I would start him in Lakewood in the bullpen and see how he fares before moving him into rotation or back to Williamsport.

Jordan Guth, 21, Phils 9th round pick in 2012; 11 games (7 starts); 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA; 34IP 40H 3BB 18K; 4HR allowed; 1.15 GO/AO; .286 opp. avg., 1.26WHIP; 0.8BB/4.8K per nine; 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA as a starter in 7 starts; .299 vs. LH, .274 vs. RH, .178 with RISP. Guth’s year wasnt as bad as his ERA as he was hurt for a month and his peripherals are not bad. His success with RISP shows me something.  Grade: C-; 2013: Lakewood.

GCL

Franklyn Vargas, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 12 games (11 starts); 5-3 with a 4.70 ERA; 46IP 38H 26BB 48K, 1.90 GO/AO; 1.39 WHIP; .225 opp. avg; 2 HR allowed; .273 vs. LH, .213 vs. RH, .190 with RISP. 5.1BB/9.4K per nine. Vargas was very impressive with the only real down side being his propensity to walk hitters. Grade: B+; 2013: Williamsport.

Ranfi Casimiro, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 10 games (7 starts); 3-2 with a 3.49 ERA; 38.2IP 36H 14BB 28K 1HR allowed; 1.29 WHIP;  1.10 GO/AO; .252 opp. avg., 3.2BB/6.5K per nine; .268 vs. LH, .245 vs. RH, .270 with RISP.  A nice American debut for the Dominican.  Grade: B. 2013: See how it goes in Lakewood with a drop back to Williamsport if necessary.

Mitch Guellar, 18, Phils 1st round pick in 2012; 8 games (6 starts); 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA; 27.1IP 26H 12BB 19K; 1.31 GO/AO; .255 opp. avg., 1.39 WHIP; 3.9BB/6.4K per nine; .300 vs. LH, .246 vs. RH, .241 with RISP.  Adequate. Nothing more, nothing less. Grade: C. 2013: Williamsport

Jesen Dygestile-Therrien, 19, Phils   pick in the 2012 draft; 12 games (6 starts); 0-5 with a 3.46 ERA; 1 save; 41.2IP 34H 20BB 34K; 2HR allowed; 1.56 GO/AO; .225 opp. avg., 1.29 WHIP; 4.3BB/7.3K per nine; 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA as a starter; .264 vs. LH, .204 vs. RH, .289 with RISP. Much more effective as a reliever than as a starter.  2013: Williamsport; Grade: B-.

Shane Watson, 19, Phils 2nd round pick in 2012; 5 games (3 starts); 7IP 5H 1BB 8K; .200 opp. avg. Very limited action. Grade: Inc. His work is much too limited for me to even guess what the Phillies saw out of Watson.

Yoel Mecias, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 14 games (4 starts); 0-2 with  a 2.16 ERA; 2 saves; 41.2IP 32H 11BB 34K 4HR allowed; 1.03 WHIP; 0-1 with a 2.50 ERA in 4 starts; .152 vs. LH, .229 vs. RH, .194 with RISP; 2.3BB/7.3K per nine.  Mecias was outstanding out of the ‘pen and moved into the rotation in the final weeks of the season. Grade: A-. 2013: Lakewood.

20 thoughts on “Post Season Report Card, Starting Pitching, Bottom Half

  1. Great stuff but just wanted to mention somewhere that Gillies had 3 hits including a homer plus a walk leaidng off for Canada in a win on Saturday while Altherr had back to back 2 hit games for Germany. They play tonight with the winner getting a berth in the next World Baseball Classic. Spain beat Israel last night in 10 innings for the other spot.

    1. I think several GCL pitchers might go to Lakewood. Gueller will get a chance also if he does well next spring. Casimiro and JDT are also candidates. Vargas is young enough to take the slow route through Williamsport.

      The reason to be aggressive is that the Williamsport staff does not have many prospects. Joaquin is probably the best arm there. Warner is polished so he probably is in the Lakewood rotation. Brady might double jump as the article states. Not sure anyone else there is worth a starting slot, and guys like Joaquin might do half the season in the bullpen anyway to protect their arms. We should not put too much stock in Gueller’s performance last year. We know he is raw and developing. That is the type of arm that might demand more innings (and he’ll probably get hit a little bit) because the best prospects need the most regular innings.

  2. I figure the Lakewood guys all move up, either as starters , or as middle relievers.
    For the next season Lakewood:
    I go Warner, Joaquin, Brady, then you select from holdover Kevin Walter (didn’t see above),
    Luis Gonzalez (not above) and Guth and Manny Martinez.
    For Williamsport next season:
    Watson, Guellar, Vargas, Casamiro, and Dygestile-Therrien. With some competition from Yacksel Rios, Braden Shull, and Mecias- bullpen for the extras.
    For the next GCL squad, I go:
    Ronald Mendez, Francibel Alejo, Douglas Parrada, Severino Gonzalez, and Ricardo Pinto alternating with Sergio Velis, Yeisson Fernandez, Gregorio Santos, Jorge Serrano, Feliberto Sanchez, and Seranthony Dominguez

  3. Excellent work as always. Thank you for putting these reviews together.

    @marfis — nice summary as well.

    One tiny correction — sorry about this — I only raise it for completeness and in case this list is used for something else going forward and not to be critical). JDT was drafted in the 17th round in 2011 (I confirmed that with the 2011 draft links).

  4. Based on history Gueller and Watson at least start in Lakewood. Their innings were likely limited by previous work but both seem ready to move up even if their overall innings to be capped.

      1. They in general have sent all of their high profile guys to Lakewood and the low round and raw guys to GCL and WPT. If they are not trying to really control innings then it seems to make sense to let them get the feel of pitching a complete year

        1. I think Watson is a definite and Gueller is 50-50. They might legitimately want him to work on secondary pitches in extended, Talent-wise he should be at Lakewood. We also need to remember his is from the NW, so they could also want him around 100-120 IP next year. That might dictate a May debut.

  5. The prospects seem to really thin out at these levels- quite different than what we’re used to seeing in recent years from these rotations. Watson and Vargas seem like the best shots to break out but I like Warner too. Kind of too early to tell what we’ve got with Brady and Milner but their debuts were encouraging.

    1. I think that’s more a reflection on the draft priorities recently, and especially last year. The Phillies have gone for position players in the last couple of drafts. It’s not helped that Shull, Musser and Walter have all been hurt at some point as well.

  6. Is there any chance we can get PhuturePhillies back? I miss his actual indepth analysis. A lot of this stuff just seems like subjective comments. I know PP was subjective but his thoughts were always backed up by great statistical analysis. Also I notice the quality of comments has gone down hill… Make me yearn for the WIP crowd.

  7. I guess I forgot how little pitching upside the Phillies have in Low Minors
    With so many guys with small sample sizes it becomes more difficult to project. However, it would be nice if there were more guys with good performances.
    Brady and Milner as college guys look good so far, with Klevan and Vargas next.

    CLW: Milner, Rosin, Klevan, Stewart (eventually to bullpen), Brady

    Colvin may start at CLW to try to build his success. Phillies should try to keep him a starter but a conversion to relief may be needed early next season.
    (Side comment, why did Phillies convert Lisalverto Bonilla to a reliever? I thought he has 3 major league quality pitches.)
    I thought Manzinillo would be a breakout stud this year… not so much. I think he sticks around as a reliever.

    LKW: L. Martinez, Warner, Joaquin, Guellar, Waston, Casimiro, Guth, M. Martinez
    I could see Casimiro, Guth and Martinez (both maybe) begin in the bullpen as Phillies try to manange innings and levels. Phillies have often seemed to have a couple guys who only start for half the season at LKW.
    Maybe JDT to the LKW bullpen as well

    WPT: Vargas, Watson (drop from LKW), Mecias, College Guy, International Guy
    GCL: Draft picks

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