Post Season Report Card, Starting Pitching, Upper Half

Lehigh Valley

Scott Elarton, 36, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 26 starts; 6-11 with a 5.41 ERA; 136.1P 160H 54BB 88K; 13HR allowed; 3.5BB/5.8K per nine; 0.70 GO/AO; .290 opp. avg., .319 vs. LH, .268 vs. RH, .299 with RISP; 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA Post All Star Game. Elarton was very bad after a very good April,  With prospects coming up from Reading and Elarton at age 36, I cant imagine him back. Grade: D-. Would have been worse but I admire his perseverance.

Tom Cochran, 29, SIgned as a free agent in 2012; 25 games; 9-5 with a 3.96 ERA; 127.1IP 107H 70BB 106K; 10HR allowed; 4.9BB/7.5K per nine; 0.82 GO/AO; .230 opp. avg., .252 vs. LH, .223 vs. RH, .238 with RISP; 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA since August 1. Cochran threw well after early season shoulder troubles and is a good “depth” guy for an organization to have. Grade: B. 2013: I would like to see him back, but he will go where he believes he has the best shot at the bigs.

Jon Pettibone, 22, Phils 3rd round pick in 2008; 26 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 13-8 with a 3.10ERA; 2CG; 1 shutout; 159.2IP 146H 49BB 113K; 9HR allowed; 1.37 GO/AO; .243 opp. avg; 1.22 WHIP; 2.8BB/6.4K per nine; In 7 starts for Lehigh Valley; 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA; 1.53 GO/AO; .204 opp. avg; Outstanding year for Pettibone who is on the cusp of heloing the big club.  Grade: A; 2013: Lehigh Valley but will likely see time in Philadelphia.

Matt Wright, 30, SIgned as a free agent in 2012; 7 games, 4 starts, 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA; 23.1IP 18H 7BB 17K; 1.17 GO/AO; .214 opp. avg.  Wright was signed when the ‘Pigs were in need of pitching depth after the departure of Dave Bush and did a good job in limited work.  Wright, however, couldnt stay on the field, missing the last 7 weeks on the seaosn with arm problems. Grade: Inc. 2013: Elsewhere

Pat Misch, 31, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; 21 starts, 7-12 with a 4.98 ERA; 112IP 132H 29BB 81K 16HR allowed; 1.87 GO/AO; .289 opp. avg., 1.44 WHIP; 2.3BB/6.5K per nine; .255 vs. LH, .304 vs. RH, .262 with RISP; Missed the last 6 weeks on the season injured.  Other than a short stretch in June, Misch was consistently bad for Lehigh Valley. Grade: D-; 2013: ELsewhere.

Reading

Trevor May, 22, Phils 4th round pick in 2008; 28 starts, 10-13 with a 4.87 ERA; 149.2IP 139H 78BB 151K; 22 HR allowed; 0.98 GO/AO; .249 opp. avg., 4.7bb/9.1k per nine; .249 vs. LH, .248 vs. RH, .289 with RISP; 2-5 with a 4.08 ERA in 7 starts since Aug 1.  May got killed by the walk and the HR ball this year.  Looking “inside the numbers”, it isn’t quite as bad as it is  on its face, but certainly not a good year for May, who most had as the Phils #1 prospect entering 2012. Grade: D+; 2013: Lehigh Valley rotation

Austin Hyatt, 26, Phils 15th round pick in 2009; 27 starts; 10-12 with a 5.27ERA; 141.2IP 154H 52BB110K; 0.50 GO/AO; .277 opp. avg., 1.45 WHIP; 3.3BB/7.0K per nine; 24 HR allowed;  For Reading: 16 starts; 8-5 with a 4.62 ERA; 87.2IP 92H 26BB 75K; 0.46 GO/AO; .267 opp. avg.,After excellent years in both 2010 and 2011, Hyatt hit a wall in 2012, as he was awful in Lehigh Valley and not a whole lot better in Reading. Lets hope 2012 was an aberration. Grade: D- 2013: Lehigh Valley 5th starter

Mario Hollands, 24, Phils 10th round pick of 2010; 27 games (18 starts) across all four levels of the organization; 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA; 110.2IP 122H 39BB 84K; 11 HR allowed; 0.97 GO/AO; .282 opp. avg., 1.45 WHIP; 3.1BB/6.8K per nine; For Reading: 9 games, 3-5 with a 4.75 ERA; 47.1IP 54H 23BB 28K; 1.63 WHIP. Hollands went from starting the season in Extended Spring Training to making stops at each one of the major affiliates.  Very difficult to grade his year. Hollands was most consistent in CLearwater, and overmatched in Lehigh Valley. Grade: C; 2013: Reading

Brody Colvin, 22, Phils 7th round pick in 2009; 30 games (25 starts) between CLearwater and Reading; 6-10 with a 5.87 ERA; 138IP; 156H 74BB 109K; 11HR allowed; 1.05 GO/AO; .295 opp. avg., 1.67 WHIP; 4.8BB/7.1K per nine; For Reading: 7 starts; 1-4 with an 11.02 ERA; 32.2IP 43H 23BB 16K; 0.79 GO/AO; .328 opp. avg., 2.02 WHIP; 6.3BB/4.4K per nine. 2012 was an unmitigated distaster for Colvin. Watching him twice for Reading, he was throwing with zero confidence.  Clearly with talent, but more clearaly lacking the current ability to figure out how to use it. Grade:F; 2013: Clearwater rotation.

Ethan Martin, 23, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 27 starts; 13-6 with a 3.48 ERA; 157.2IP 118H 79BB 147K; 8HR allowed; 0.97 GO/AO; .212 opp. avg; 1.24WHIP; 4.5BB/8.3K per nine; For Reading: 7 starts, 5-0 with a 3.18ERA; 1.00 GO/AO; .206 opp. avg., 1.18 WHIP; 4.1BB/7.9K per nine. Martin had a very good year and was overpowering at times for Reading.  The issue, which will become further illuminated as he continues to move up is his command. His BB rate in 2011 was well over 6 per nine innings, so 2012 was a marked improvement but still not where it needs to be. Also notable that Martin threw 44 innings more than in any year prior in the minors. Grade: B+; 2013: Lehigh Valley rotation but could end up as a back end of the bullpen guy.

Adam Morgan, 22, Phils 3rd round pick in 2011; 27 starts; 8-11 with a 3.35 ERA between Clearwater and Reading; 158.2IP 137H 39BB 169K; 9HR allowed; 0.91 GO/AO; .235 opp. avg., 2.2BB/9.6K per nine; 1.17 WHIP; 6 starts for Reading, 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA; 35.2IP 11BB 29K; 1.26 WHIP; .260 opp. avg., 2.8BB/7.3K per nine.  Morgan had a very, very good year and has successfully placed himself on the radar screen as a legitimate prospect. Grade: B+; 2013: Reading rotation

David Buchanan; 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2010; 12 starts; 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA; 72.1IP 73H 23BB 40K; 1.26 GO/AO; .273 opp. avg., 1SO; 7HR allowed; 1.33 WHIP; 2.8BB/5.0K per nine; .340 vs. LH, .230 vs. RH, .213 with RISP; Buchanan was solid before injuring his finger in Mid June and missing the last two and a half months of the season.  He is expected back next year and the obvious need for improvement is his body of work against left handed hitters. Threw 157 innings in 2010.  Grade: B- in his half season of action. 2013: Reading rotation

Clearwater

Jesse Biddle, 20, Phils 1st round pick in 2010; 26 starts; 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA; 142.2IP 129H 54BB 151K; 10HR allowed; 0.89 GO/AO; .237 opp. avg., 1.28WHIP; 3.4BB/9.5K per nine; .225 vs. LH, .243 vs. RH, .228 with RISP; 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 6 starts since August 1. Outstanding year and progress by Biddle, who threw 10 more innings this year than in 2011.  Grade: A-; 2013: Reading rotation

Perci Garner, 23, Phils 2nd round pick in 2010; 26 starts; 7-9 with a 4.84 ERA; 134IP 135H 63BB 91K; 9HR allowed; 1.38 GO/AO; .262 opp. avg; 1.48 WHIP; 4.2BB/6.1K per nine; .270 vs. LH, .256 vs. RH, .264 with RISP; 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 5 August starts. Simply the fact that Garner was able to make almost all of his starts is a move forward and he pitched well in the later part of the season.  His control is what would consistently stand in his way of success, as he is not overpowering. Grade: C+; 2013: Reading

Austin Wright, 23, Phils 8th round pick in 2011; 27 games; 11-5 with a 3.47 ERA; 147.2IP 147H 60BB 133K; 1.18 GO/AO; .259 opp. avg., 11 HR allowed; 1.40WHIP; 3.7BB/8.1K per nine; .213 vs. LH, .280 vs. RH, 234 with RISP; 2-1 with a 4.22ERA in 6 August starts.  Wright was certainly the unsung star, receiving little attention from this site and others, and doing a great job in 2012.  Grade: B+; 2013: Reading

Seth Rosin, 23, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 37 games (8 starts) between Dodgers and Phillies organization at High A; 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA; 10 saves; 68.1IP 56H 22BB 75K; 6HR allowed; 0.80 GO/AO; .220 opp. avg., 1.14WHIP; 2.9BB/9.9K per nine.  Rosin joined the Phillies organization in August, made three starts and landed on the DL for the balance of the season.Not quite sure whether he ends up in the bullpen or rotation long term but good numbers in 2012.  Grade: B-; 2013: A month or two in CLearwater to re-establish  himself, then Reading. COuld end up back in the bullpen.

69 thoughts on “Post Season Report Card, Starting Pitching, Upper Half

    1. Can we all just take a minute and appreciate the fact that fritz had Scott Elarton ranked ahead of Trevor May and Adam Morgan on a “prospect list”. SCOTT ELARTON.

  1. Elarton is not a prospect (he is probably done as a pro)

    Biddle
    Martin
    Pettibone
    Morgan
    May
    Wright
    Rosin
    Colvin
    Hyatt

    Don’t forget about L Bonilla (although probably a reliever at this point)

  2. I think Garner is still a prospect, although he’s probably going to end up in the bullpen. Also I think Colvin will start next year in Reading.

  3. A couple of thoughts.

    First, I agree that Colvin will likely be in Reading. They will work hard with him in the off season (assuming he cooperates) and in spring training. They don’t want him to bounce around.

    Second, on Reading, just as we need to keep hitting performances in context in Reading, we need to do the same with pitchers. Reading is a park that provides a great advantage to hitters and, I think, the EL is a pretty good hitting league on the whole. Although there are exceptions, when a pitcher has good conventional statistics at Reading, it generally means that he is performing very well and that the performance will likely carry over to Lehigh Valley if the pitcher generally has good stuff. So, when you see a guy like Pettibone or Martin posting an ERA in the low to mid 3 range, that pitcher will probably do quite well in Lehigh Valley and may very well have big league potential. As a result, I expect that, if healthy, both Martin and May will do well at AAA and I think Pettibone is a legitimate candidate for the major league rotation early next year and perhaps as early as the end of spring training (although I expect that, unless he dominates in the spring, they will wait a little while to call him to game his service time and also to give him one final look in AAA). I also happen to think that Morgan may not be far off from going to the AAA and proceeding beyond that. Again, it’s not always the case that good pitching in Reading carries over to AAA (see Austin Hyatt) but generally, the performance does carry over from one level to the next and, therefore, we need to err on the side of the pitcher when looking at Reading pitching statistics.

  4. So,according to above: Next Season:
    The LVIP will have 4 likely starters in Pettibone, May, Hyatt, and E. Martin
    I would A. Morgan to that , as 27 starts at AA is a good test. And he was a College veteran as well.
    Then for the AA, I see: Colvin, Buchanan, Hollands(who I would place in bullpen) and you add:
    Wright, Biddle , and Garner. That’s 5. Don’t see any Julio Rodriguez ( must have relieved some at end of season . I put as 4/5/6/ option with some relief appearances by backenders.
    At Clearwater A(A) I see Rosin, G. Claypool, C. Kleven, L. Martinez, E. Stewart, with the competition of H. Milner, E. Manzanillo, and Moises Rivas with some at the level working in as relievers.

    1. Adam Morgan made 6 starts at AA not 27. He made 27 over the course of the year but most were at Clearwater. 6 starts is not enough to bump him up. Start him at AA and if he shows well he’ll get the mid-season bump

      1. mratfinf…..Reading is AA, do the math, 27-6=21. He has it in the post….’27 starts; ….BETWEEN Clearwater and Reading’

        1. Ratfink is right, anonymous. Marfis says 27 at AA. Please re-read.

          I do think that for AAA it is more likely that the Phils will go out and sign a non-prospect veteran or two to augment the staff and leave some of these guys at lower levels to start. (I’m just basing that on recent history.) By and large, though, I agree with and appreciate Marfis’ list.

    2. How long has it been since we had 4 prospects in AAA? Probably never. We usually have a bunch of AAAA guys who have some ML service and can, in a pinch, fill in. Not all the prospects will pan out but I like that the organization has finally got some younger guys on the edge of the show. You can probably slate Cloyd for AAA too so there could be 5 “prospects” in AAA. Nice!!!

      1. Exactly, there is never prospects in AAA, let alone 4 at the same time. Pretty exciting to know that when guys are called up, they are actually legit guys and not the Hector Luna’s of the world.

      2. Cloyd is the fifth guy at Lehigh Valley for me and not Morgan. then Cloyd is probably first one up in case of injury at the beginning of the year followed by Pettibone but by mid-season depends on who is pitching well because all of those guys have a decent chance to stick in a big league rotation

    3. I’m not as gung ho on him as some are but I think Milner is a lock to be in the rotation. Also I wonder if they’ll put the guy they got for Blanton back in the rotation. I think he may have been in the bullpen just to keep his innings down.

    1. Especially given his late season success. I hesitate to put TOO much weight on that, SSS and all, but it does have the look of May maybe finally starting to get it together. You can’t ignore the rest, but yeah, I think it brings him up to about a C+.

  5. A little harsh on Colvin. I saw him pitch at Clearwater and he was very good. We were all surprised he was promoted to Reading and the phils probably did him a disservice.

    1. He clearly had a bad year, but all this talk about him being a non-prospect is overblown. I think I still have him on the fringe of the top 10 based on stuff and age. He has a better chance to succeed in the big leagues because of his stuff than many others that people are talking about ahead of him. He is behind Biddle and Martin, but it is arguable he is still on the same level as guys like Pettibone and Morgan. HS pitchers sometimes take a little time developing.

      1. Colvin is a very volatile prospect at this point. I can’t, in good faith to the prospects who are performing, rank him highly anymore. However, it would just take one consistently good year for him to skyrocket (and not even necessarily in ERA, if he put up, say, 8+ K/9 with a sub 3.75 BB/9, he’d instantly be back in my top 10). Most guys would need to prove their game over a couple years, but we all know he’s git the stuff. All that’s missing are the results.

        1. Colvin has #1 or #2 starter stuff but a mental makeup of a hot dog vender. What do you do with that? He’s probably the most frustration prospect in the organization. His god-given abilities are as high as anyone in organization but if you can’t use them, what does they matter? It makes it difficult to rank him. We’ll have people voting for him in the top 10 and a bunch of people saying he doesn’t deserve to be in the top 40.

          1. People like to talk about “clutch.” There was a comment a few weeks ago by someone agreeing that it was mostly nonsense, but positing that, with regard to pitchers, there are “anti clutch” pitchers – pitchers who fall apart under pressure, basically losing their composure. My feeling is that there are very few examples of such players in the majors – not because they don’t exist in the larger population, but because they never make it to the majors for that very reason.

            1. The other things is that many end up in the bullpen, because often the problem comes when they start putting runners on base, so in the bullpen you can pull them out if there is a problem before they make things even worse.

  6. 25 hrs allowed by May. Wow
    I agree thats a harsh grade. With Hamels locked up, the best part about these names is that none of these guys need to be rushed.
    I dont think that they have “ace” arms but quite a few guys in higher levels that could be 2-3 rotation guys behind Hamels for the next 5 years.
    Im very impressed with Biddle and cant wait to see him Reading this year.
    Interested in seeing how the national publications view Biddle and May inparticular.
    I was 100% against the Pence deal, but Martin and Lindblom for Victorino was a nice move by Ruben. But he was due for one………. World Series 2013!!!!!!!

    1. On the whole, RAJ did a fantastic job with trades this year. As you said the Vic deal was great (a lot more than I was expecting, honestly), and the Thome deal was an absolute coup. I don’t understand why Pierre is still on the team, but whatever.

      As for the Pence deal, I definitely thought we should have gotten more, but I don’t think the ripple effect of that deal has stopped yet (i.e. let’s see if we move Valle for something this offseason).

      1. Look what pierre did last night! And u say u dont know why he is still on the team. He is a team player and I hope that he is a Phillie next year

      2. Dan, its too bad the Phillies did not know that Melky Cabera was about to be suspended before they traded Hunter Pence to th Giants. The Phillies could have gotten more prospects in the deal (Kickham, Clark and others as examples) knowing San Francisco would have no RH power hitter on their team.

      3. First of all this is the wrong place for this discussion, second of all what a sad joke that we sit here and obsess over the fact that RAJ didn’t trade Pierre away with 3 weeks left in the season for nothing. Sure teams wanted him but what did they want to give up for him? Obviously nothing, because if they did RAJ would have dumped him like he dumped Blanton. One can only assume that we were going to receive something much less in value than what we got in return for Blanton. Now consider the Phillies had begun a surge. At the time the whole deal thing fell through it was more likely Pierre could contribute to the Phillies making the playoffs than it was that whatever we traded him for would have ever produced any major league value whatsoever.

        1. Who obsessed? I wrote one line on it, you’re obsessing over it much more than I am at the moment. And the Phillies haven’t had good odds of making the playoffs in months, so it’s likely whatever we could have gotten for him would be more valuable than whatever production he gives us for the remainder of the season in the grand scheme of things. Regardless, I shrugged it off.

      1. Ok, I understand. Although I am glad they did not, it’s fun to watch a professional like him go about his business.

        1. It was less fun to watch him limp arm a throw from very shallow left field and fail to stop a runner on second from scoring a run.

          1. Please, arms are overrated. I will take the .318 with 35 sb’s and equal bb to k’s over the occasional chance to throw a runner out at the plate any day.

            1. That’s a new one for me…”Arms are overrated”. A strong arm prevents a run from scoring more than the amount of times it throws someone out at the plate. It keeps people from taking extra bases. Pierre’s had a fine season, especially for the money, but he’s cost the team more than a couple runs in the outfield because he can’t throw.

  7. Its a long time away but spring training will be very interesting to see where these guys get slotted. AAA with Cloyd, Pettibone, May, Martin, and Hyatt plus the leftovers from whom don’t make the Phils’ bullpen would be very good watching. AA with Biddle, Morgan, Wright, Buchannan, and Colvin would be pretty good too. Huge drop off to A+ rotation though. Who will make the bullpen next year from all the year guys getting looked at? Lots of arms…

  8. Gregg, it appears you’re worried about the Verducci Effect for Ethan Martin. Let’s hope that 14 (44 less 30) will be within a tolerance.

  9. I always hope the LHV rotation will have actual prospects in it. Could see Hyatt as floater between AA and AAA, similar to role Brummett had this season. I assume Worley and Kendrick in big league rotation with “long man” from the reliever pool.
    In order of possible callups:
    LHV: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, May, Vet, (Hyatt)
    AA: Buchanan, Morgan, Biddle, Wright, Colvin (Rodriquez)
    I am not sure where to put Garner with this alignment though. Colvin to CLW or maybe Buchanan to LHV?

  10. Average Game Score is a good indication how a Starting Pitcher is doing over a course of a season at a particular minor league level. All of the factors that affect pitching performance are reflected in the Game Score. The variables used in computing game score are inning pitched, runs, earned runs, hits, walks, and strikeouts. Average Game Score Grade classifies the starting pitcher into the following classifications;

    A’s …… Scores greater than 56 are A’s. They are pitchers who put up average scores in the top 20 percentile or 0 to 20% group. They are the #1 starters at that particular level or the very best performing starters at that minor league level.

    B’s ……. Scores that are greater than 52 and less than 56 are the B’s. They are the next 20 to 40% group. They are the #2 starters at that particular minor league level.

    C’s ……. Scores that are greater than 48 and less than 52 are the C’s. They are the next 40 to 60% group. They are the #3 starters at that level. They are essentially the “average starters” at that minor league level.

    D’s ……. Scores that are greater than 44 and less than 48 are the D’s. They are the next 60 to 80% group. They are the #4 starters at that minor league level.

    F’s ……. Scores that are less than 44 are the F’s. They are the last “worst” or 80 to 100% group. They are the #5 or worst performing starters at that particular minor league level.

    The +’s and -’s are a further fine tuning of their performance”+” are the top 1/3 of a group while the “-” are the lowest 1/3 of a group.

    Note: The scores are for only the 2012 season. The scores are computed using only the games that the pitchers started and do not normally include games pitched in relief. There are a couple of exceptions when a pitcher is pulled from his normal start and replaced by a pitcher who is on rehab. The normal starter then is usually put in the game in the second or third inning and pitches a number of innings like a starter. The score for a pitcher who starts at several levels are combined into his score. The scores for a pitcher who was traded for includes his game scores for his previous team.

    The following are the scores for all the Phillies minor league starters:

    AAA Starting Pitchers…Levels……………….R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Tyler Cloyd…………….. AAA/AA …………..R – 25 …….. 60.6 …………….. A+
    Jonathan Pettibone…… AAA/AA …………..R – 22 …….. 55.0 …………….. B+
    Tom Cochran………….. AAA …………………L – 29 …….. 51.2 …………….. C+
    Scott Elarton …………… AAA …………………R – 36 …….. 43.0 …………….. F+
    Mario Hollands……….. AAA/AA/A+/A … L – 24 …….. 48.4 …………….. C-
    Patrick Misch………….. AAA ……………….. L – 30 …….. 46.0 …………….. D
    Brian Rosenberg……… AAA ……………….. R – 27 …….. 54.8 …………….. B+
    Matt Wright……………. AAA ……………….. R – 30 …….. 55.5 …………….. B+

    AA Starting Pitchers..Levels………………….R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Trevor May……………. AA ………………….. R – 22 ……. 50.3 ……………… C
    Ethan Martin………….. AA ………………….. R – 23 ……. 56.3 ……………… A-
    Adam Morgan………… AA/A+ …………….. L – 22 ……. 57.8 ……………… A
    Brody Colvin…………. AA/A+ …………….. R – 22 ……. 41.8 ……………… F
    Austin Hyatt………….. AAA/AA ………….. R – 26 ……. 46.7 ……………… D+
    Julio Rodriguez……… AA …………………… R – 22 ……. 51.5 ……………… C+
    Dave Buchanan……… AA …………………… R – 23 ……. 50.3 ……………… C
    Drew Naylor…………. AA …………………… R – 26 ……. 41.8 ………………. F

    A+ Starting Pitchers…Levels………………..R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Jesse Biddle………… A+ …………………….. L – 20 …….. 55.0 …………….. B+
    Seth Rosin…………… A+ ……………………. R – 24 …….. 55.6 …………….. B+
    Austin Wright……… A+ …………………….. L – 23 …….. 52.1 …………….. B-
    Perci Garner………… A+ ……………………. R – 24 ……… 46.5 ……………… D
    Juan Sosa……………. A+ ……………………. R – 24 ……… 51.8 ……………… C+

    A Starting Pitchers…Levels………………..R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Colin Kleven……….. A ……………………… R – 21 ……… 50.7 …………….. C+
    Ethan Steward……… A ……………………… L – 21 …….. 50.0 …………….. C
    Lino Martinez……… A ………………………. L – 20 …….. 44.5 ……………… D-
    Hoby Milner……….. A/A- ………………….. L – 21 …….. 55.2 ……………… B+
    Gabriel Arias………. A ………………………. R – 23 …….. 56.6 ……………… A-
    Moises Rivas………. A+/A/R/R- …………. R – 22 …….. 53.5 …………….. B
    Ervis Manzanillo…. A ………………………. L – 21 ……. 43.2 ……………… F+
    Kenny Giles………… A ……………………… R – 22 …….. 47.8 ………………. D+
    Michael Nesseth….. A ……………………… R – 24 …….. 42.0 ………………. F

    A- Starting Pitchers…Levels………………R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Josh Warner………… A/A- ……………….. R – 20 …….. 47.5 ……………….. D+
    Kevin Brady………… A- …………………… R – 22 …….. 53.8 ………………. B
    Manaure Martinez… A-/R………………… R – 21 …….. 53.4 ………………. B
    Ulises Joaquin……… A- …………………… R – 20 ……. 46.8 ……………….. D+
    Jeb Stefan……………. A- …………………… R – 22 …….. 43.8 ……………….. F+
    Jordan Guth…………. A- …………………… R – 21 ……. 47.4 ………………. D+
    Delvin Perez………… A- …………………… L – 21 …….. 41.0 ………………. F-
    Ramon Oviedo…….. A/A- ……………….. R – 22 …….. 36.0 ………………. F-
    Jonathan Musser….. A- …………………… R – 21 …….. 37.3 ……………….. F-
    Luis Gonzalez……… A- …………………… L – 21 …….. 44.2 ……………….. D-

    R Starting Pitchers……Levels……………R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Mitch Gueller………… R …………………… R – 18……… 45.9 ……………….. D
    Andrew Anderson….. R …………………… R – 18……… 41.3 ……………….. F
    Jesen Dygestile-Therrien R ……………… R – 19……… 48.8 ……………….. C-
    Ranfi Casimiro………. R …………………… R – 20……… 49.8 ……………….. C
    Franklyn Vargas…….. R …………………… L – 18……… 49.5 ……………….. C
    Yacksel Rios………….. R …………………… R – 19……. 33.8 ……………….. F-
    Luis Morales………….. R …………………… R – 19…….. 37.0 ……………….. F-

    R- Starting Pitchers……Levels……………….R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Douglas Parada…….. R- …………………… L – 19 ……. 63.4 ………………. A+
    Ronald Mendez…….. R- ………………….. R – 19 ……. 44.9 ……………….. D-
    Sergio Velis…………… R- …………………. L – 17 ……. 53.1 ……………….. B-
    Severino Gonzalez…. R- …………………… R – 19 …… 66.0 ……………….. A+
    Ricardo Pinto………… R- …………………… R – 18 …… 55.4 ………………. B+
    Yeisson Fernandez…. R- ………………….. R – 17 ……. 45.3 ……………….. D
    Liberio Bohorquez…. R- ………………….. R – 20 ……. 60.0 ……………….. A+

    R- Starting Pitchers……Levels……………….. R/L, AGE…Ave Gm Sc…Gm Sc GRADE
    Feiberto Sanchez……. R- ………………….. R – 19 …… 46.3 ………………… D
    Gregorino Santos…… R- ………………….. R – 19 …… 49.9 ……………….. C
    Jorge Serrano………… R- ………………….. L – 17 ……. 45.8 ………………… D
    Seranthony Dominguez R- ……………… R – 17 ……. 49.7 ………………… C
    Francibel Alejo……… R- ………………….. R – 17 …… 53.8 ………………… B

    1. All of that, and no consideration for age to level. Seth Rosin gets the same grade as Jesse Biddle? Mario Hollands earned his best line scores in A+, but he is classified as a c+ AAA pitcher?

      1. If you read the initial report you would know that the players are not graded “against each other” but graded against themselves as far as what the expectations would have been for that season. The example I gave was that Trevor May would not be graded against Tyson Brummett but against what we thought Trevor May would do for the season. If Brummett received a higher grade then May it doesnt mean I believe he is a better pitcher, but that he exceeded the exectations I had for him by a greater margin then May.

        The expectations for Biddle were high to begin with. He exceeded exectations with his outstanding season.

        1. I think that comment was about Average Game Score, rather than your grades. I don’t like the ingredients of that formula. It certainly should include HRs given up and I think counting unearned runs is more a function of team D than pitching. Of course it’s also a system that says nothing about who the better prospects are since the over-age for a league have a huge advantage.

      2. Age to level. Don’t see anything that touts this as a “who is the best prospect ” thing, it looks more like an evaluation of the performance of starting pitchers as minor league pitchers. And it seems things are mixed in results from pitchers at any level they pitched at. It seems to give no consideration to the amount of participation, i.e. innings pitched. Going on what is remembered from boxscores.

        1. Age to level has a lot to do with expectations. “Expecting” Biddle to have the type of season he had at that age would have been unreasonable. Expecting 24 year old Seth Rosin to have that type of season in A+, is what should have been expected. Therefore the 2 pitchers should not have the same grade.

          1. NEPA’s post is just about the game scores. I don’t think he was suggesting they should be replacing Gregg’s grades in the initial post. It’s completely results based and has nothing to do with a player’s age or expectations.

    2. Cannot locate Shane Watson…numero uno pick. And Kenny Giles’ starter score vs reliever must be night and day!

  11. Excellent analysis as usual. I was taken by the comment on Brody Colvin, that he has talent but does not have the ability to figure out how to use it. I would think that in his case, as well as guys like Trevor May, a good pitching coach could help out. I remember when the Phillies used Johnny Podres as a part time ptiching instructor, even when he stopped coaching. I saw him work with Bastardo as well as other minor league pitchers in spring training years ago. It would seem to me that it would be worth a try for the Phillies look into someone like that or one of their good minor league pitching coaches to do extended work with Colvin–part ptiching, part psychology.

  12. +1 Dubee didn’t impress me with the Marlins and not now either. A little failure can turn out to be a good thing. Not only will a player of right mind work harder but he can better handle the future.

      1. Who do you believe? Remember I don’t have butts to kiss. And remember Wheeler is the only human being Harry C couldn’t stand. Happy now??

    1. You’re crazy, Rich Dubee has absolutely helped the Phillies. He’s a huge proponent of the changeup and he was the one that taught Halladay his changeup. He has also worked with Kendrick on his changeup.

    2. Dubee isn’t an elite pitching coach but he isn’t terrible. His strength is working with young pitchers (especially relievers), he is good helping pitchers develop a good change up (Halladay’s grip, Madson, Kendrick), and he teaches a good cutter to help those whose breaking balls aren’t up to par (Hamels, Kendrick, Worley).

      You cannot just bring him reclamation projects like some pitching coaches but he is still very good and for the most part you see Phillies pitchers exceed expectations when they make it to the majors.

      1. Leo Mazzone was consider one of the best….but he worked with John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, all profile pitchers. When you take the others like Millwood, Avery, Chen etc etc, very pedestrian pitchers after leaving Atlanta.

        1. Do you think the Glavine,Maddux,Smoltz club paid any attention to Mazzone. They were tight. It would also explain why Millwood acted the way he did here. he was used to ignoring the pitching coach. I believe Mazzone was a media creation.

  13. The Phillies will add a AAAA type veteran starting pitcher to the rotation at Lehigh Valley. NO way they leave all those first timers there alone. I do not know who it will be but it will be
    a) a veteran 30+ guy
    b) a future pitching coach type guy
    c) a good guy who has had a lot of success in AAA and has visited the majors

  14. The biggest loss of potential and status among our starters for me is Hyatt. He is completely unpredictable at Reading and had poor job at LV. I’ll wish him well but he is out of the top 20 for me.

    The pitchers’ lists above are good representations of a new bunch auditioning for MLB soon…maybe as Halladay and Lee get closer to their contracts ending.

    The need at the top is not desperate by a long-shot with Kendrick coming of age and Worley to come back healthy. Near future rotation has good promise for a good run for the /13 plaqyoffs with any needed help now available at LV.

    Now, on to getting a good CFer and righty outfielder plus another fill-in for 3rd base to supplement Frandsen until Asche arrives within the season, I hope.

  15. Is there any pitcher on this list that could be brought in to replace Halladay? I’m guessing that they have been shut down for too long and that it can’t happen.

    1. They have all been shut down for too long, because of the day off on Monday they can go with 4 pitchers the rest of the way which ends some speculation that had started that Cloyd would be skipped and moved to being the long man.

      If they wanted any of these guys to be ready they would have called them up when their seasons ended.

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