Post Season Report Card–OF, Lower Half

A last look at the Outfielders in the lower half of the organization…next up is Starting Pitchers, coming at the end of the week.

Lakewood

Aaron Altherr, 21, Phils 9th rd pick in 2009; .252/.319/.3402 in 420 AB’s; 8HR 50RBI; 25/33 SB; .291 vs. LH, .233 vs. RH, .238 with RISP; 8%bb/22% k rates; .279 Post All Star Game. 90 games in the OF with 1 error (.996); 9 OF assists; Altherr had a decent year, after a real rough stretch in May. Still has the potential to be a nice combination of speed and power.  Very good in the field. Grade: C+. 2013: Clearwater

Kelly Dugan, 21, Phils 2nd round pick in 2009; .300/.387/.470 in 430 AB’s; 12HR 60RBI; 5/6 SB; .291 vs. LH, .305 vs. RH, .328 with RISP; .331 Post All Star Game; 10%bb/26% k rates; 79 games in the OF with 4 errors (.979); 4 OF assists; 25 games at 1B with 4 errors (.981); Dugan took a major step forward in 2012, hitting for average, producing runs and showing a good eye at the plate. The K rate is a little high but acceptable with the production. Grade: A-. 2013: Certainly Clearwater, with a double bump to Reading not out of the question.

Brian Pointer, 20, Phils 28th round pick in 2010; .225/.328/.376 in 426 AB’s between Williampsort and Lakewood; 10HR 63 RBI; 16/22 SB; For Lakewood: .217/.318/.360 in 300 AB’s; 7HR 42RBI; 13/17 SB; .159 vs. LH, .234 vs. RH, .247 with RISP; 11%BB/30% k rates; .175 since August 1. 111 games in the OF with 9 errors (.958); 3 OF assists; Pointer had a very rough year looking lost at times in Lakewood.  He has a very pretty swing, he has simply not connected. With his troubles against lefties and the high K rate, no choice but to send him back to Lakewood next year absent an exceptional Spring.  Grade: D+

Gauntlett Eldemire, 23, Phils 6th round pick in 2010; .227/.351/.326 in 233 AB’s; 2HR 18RBI; 18/23 SB; .225 vs. LH, .229 vs. RH, .231 with RISP; 14%bb/21%K rates; 69 games in the OF with 2 errors (.987); 2 OF assists; Eldemire has been plagued by injury since being drafted in 2010 and this year was no different as he wa shut down for the last two months of the season. He has an excellent batting eye and good speed but simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Grade: D; 2013: Lakewood

Kyrell Hudson, 21, Phils 3rd round pick in 2009; .224/.277/.297 in 219AB’s; 1HR 21 RBI; 23/30 SB; .364 vs. LH, .163 vs. RH, .224 with RISP; 4%bb/32% k rates; 51 games in the OF with 4 errors (.968); 4 OF assists; Hudson was awful in April and May and then started to pick things up in June being injuring himself and missing the last 9 weeks of the season. Extremely high K rate inhibits batting him at the top of the order, where his speed belongs; After spending two years at Williamsport, it looks like he will be starting his second season in Lakewood. Grade: D.

Miguel Alvarez, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .254/.289/.320 in 228 AB’s between Clearwater and Lakewood; 1HR 21 RBI; 12/17 SB; Lakewood: .315/.360/.425 in 127 AB’s; 1HR 16RBI; 10SB; 7%bb/16% k rates; 59 games in the OF with 6 errors (.962); 6 OF assists; Alvarez played well in Lakewood after dropping back from Clearwater where he hit .175. Alvarez has now been around quite awhile in the organization and 2013 most likely is put up or shut up time.  Grade: C; 2013: Clearwater

Williamsport

Larry Greene, 19, Phils 1st round pick in 2011; .272/.383/.481 in 257 AB’s; 2HR 26 RBI; 1/3 SB; 14%bb/26%k rates; .303 vs. LH, .260 vs. RH, .227 with RISP; .273 since August 1. 70 games in the OF with 4 errors (.977); 7 OF assists; A good year for Greene who showed a good batting eye and gap power.  The Phils would like to see him take the power numbers up a notch which could easily come with time.  Grade: B; 2013: Lakewood

Yan Olmo, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2008; .212/.248/.271 in 203 AB’s; 0HR 18rbi; 5/5sb; .207 vs. LH, .213. vs RH, .203 with RISP; 2%bb/22% k rates; 47 games in the OF with 3 errors (.974); 4 OF assists; The Phillies must see something outside his stat line as Olmo received plenty of playing time with little production. Grade: D; 2013: Williamsport

Kyle Hoppy, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2012; .224/.343/.293 in 116 AB’s; 1HR 11RBI; 4/5 SB; .333 vs. LH, .191 vs. RH, .167 with RISP. 15%bb/11% k rates; .247 since August 1. 31 games in the OF with 5 errors (.943); 2 OF assists; Hoppy was serviceable since signing in late July.  Grade: C-; With the glut of OF in Lakewood next year, Hoppy is likely to be a victim of the numbers game.

Zach Taylor, 21, Phils 12th round pick in 2012; .170/.254/.268 in 112 AB’s between GCL and Williampsort; 2HR 9RBI; 8%bb/27% k rates; .250 vs. LH, .162 vs. RH, .125 with RISP. Ugly stat line. Grade: F; 23 games in the OF with 4 errors (.913); 1 assist. If Taylor gets another chance, it will be because he was a relatively high pick.

Jia Tromp, 18; Signed as a free agent in 2010; .206/.270/.353 in 136AB’s between GCL and Williamsport; 2HR 16RBI; 4/8SB; 7%bb/31%k rates; 40 games in the OF with 1 error (.985); 4 OF assists; Just above the Mendoza line at two levels. Still just 18/ Grade: D; 2013: Williamsport

GCL

Dylan Cozens; 18, Phils 2nd round pick in 2012; .255/.341/.441 in 161 AB’s; 5HR 24RBI; 8/10SB; .200 vs. LH, .263 vs. RH, .274 with RISP; 12%bb/24% k rates; Not outstanding but certainly showed some promise. 8 games in the OF; 2 OF assists; 4 errors (.938); Grade: B 2013: Williamsport

Herlis Rodriguez, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .221/.265/.316 in 95 AB’s; 1HR 7RBI; 0/2 SB; .185 vs. LH, .235 vs. RH, .185 with RISP; 6%bb/23%k rates;38 games in the OF; 4 assists; 3 errors (.927); Very pedestrian numbers; Grade: C-; 2013: Back in the GCL.

Carlos Tocci, 17, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; .278/.330/.299 in 97 AB’s; 0HR 9RBI; 9/11 SB; 6%bb/17% k rates; .227 vs. LH, .293 vs. RH, .391 with RISP;35 games in the OF with 1 assist and 1 error (.981). Tocci played well, albeit in limited playing time.  In most games, he was removed in the 6th or 7th inning, only finishing a couple games towards the end of the year.  When he played he impressed, especially for his age.  Grade: B+; 2013: Williamsport

Andrew Pullin, 18, Phils 5th round pick in 2012; .321/.403/.436 in 140 AB’s; 2HR 13 RBI; 3/8 SB; .294 vs. LH, .330 vs. RH, .333 with RISP;27 games in the OF with 3 assists and 0 errors (1.000); Also played 7 games at 2B with 1 error (.964). Pullin was outstanding.  Not much more to say.   Grade: A; 2013: No reason not to start Pullin at Lakewood and see how he performs knowing he can drop back to Williamsport when their season starts if necessary.

Steven Golden, 17, Phils 13th round pick in 2012; .177/.215/.226 in 0HR 3RBI; 2/4 SB; 5%bb/29% k rates; Not a good start for Golden but just 17 years of age. 23 games in the OF with 0 assists and 1 error (.967); Grade: D-; 2013: GCL

Johnathan Knight, 19, Phils 49th round pick in 2011; .186/.255/.295 in 43 AB’s; 2HR 2RBI; 6%bb/53% k rate, 22 games in the OF with 2 assists and 0 errors (1.000). I cant imagine Knight will be back in the organization next year.

Diego Gonzalez, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .211/.218/.237 in 76 AB’s between Lakewood, WIlliamsport and GCL: 0HR 8 RBI; 10SB; 1%bb/27% k rates; 27 games in the OF with 0 assists and 1 error (.975). After putting up very nice numbers oin the Dominican League in 2011, Gonzalez has a very disappointing 2012.  He walked only once in 77 plate appearances and simply didn’t shoe much other than speed offensively.  Grade: D; 2013: Williamsport

35 thoughts on “Post Season Report Card–OF, Lower Half

  1. Seems like we have a handful of actual OF prospects from the lower level:

    Tocci
    Dugan
    Cozens
    Greene
    Altherr

    fringe:
    Hudson
    Pullin

  2. At this point altherr is far more fringy than pullin, and a move to second would put him right there with the others and ahead of many of those you mentioned as prospects. I still like Altherr but his chances at achieving his potential is slimming.

  3. Ha, I agree. I’m not on the Altherr bandwagon either. The reason I included him is, it seems many people smarter than me grant him prospect status. I think he’s fringe, at best. On par with Eldemire.

    1. Altherr is 2 years younger and performed better than Eldemire. He doesn’t have the same health concerns either. I think Altherr could surprise some people next year. He improved a lot this past season and an awful May really drags down his stat line. He was solid to very good in every other month.

  4. Remember when folks were freaking out about Eldemire’s hot start? Good times. I still think he goes to Clearwater next year, if healthy.

    Also, Knight got a pretty big bonus IIRC (his mom can probably speak to this better than I can); I imagine he wasn’t playing much because he’s raw, not because the organization doesn’t think much of him. I bet he’s back in the GCL next year, playing regularly.

    Finally, I’m confident someone from this list will be on the Minor League Top 100 list two years from now. I’d be less confident predicting who that will be.

  5. Not sure why you think that Knight wouldn’t be back with the team in 2013. He’s 19 with a total of 43 professional at-bats under his belt. Expect he gets a full dose of instructional league followed by SS ball to determine if he progresses.

  6. If you are looking at tools and upside I think the players divide up into tiers (and this is how I would rank them):
    High Upside/Risky: Tocci (though I think he could easily make it on his defense alone), Greene, Cozens
    Less Upside/Safer: Dugan, Pullin (at 2B, I think he is polished and could move quickly but doesn’t have loud tools)
    Tool Shed/Ton of Risk: Altherr, Pointer
    Not Enough Information: Tromp, Golden, Knight (these guys are so raw that you have to give them more time and see if they improve year to year)
    Org Filler: Hudson, Eldemire

    Thinking about assignments I can see Dugan and Altherr being pushed quickly if they get some success in CLW (I agree they could start Dugan in Reading), and if they are moved I think they could move Pointer to CLW to make room for all of the guys at LKW (unless they just send the GCL guys all just one level)

  7. I really enjoy these write-ups, so thank you for taking the time to do so.

    I have to think Knight will be back considering that they gave him a $100k signing bonus in 2011 and he is only 19. He probably needs some playing time, perhaps in extended ST first and then the GCL.

    With the upper and lower OFs done, it seems as if the projections are:
    LV: Gilles, Castro, Susdorf, AAAA Type FA (Pridie?)
    Reading: James, Lavin, Collier, Hewitt, D. Myers (?), Tripp (?)
    Clearwater: Dugan, Altherr, Alvarez, Hillman (?)
    Lakewood: Pointer, Eldemire, Hudson, Greene, Hoppy (?)
    Williamsport: Tromp, Cozens, Tocci, D. Gonzalez, Olmo, Z. Taylor (?)
    GCL: H. Rodriguez, Golden, Knight

    1. I think that is pretty close, I assume if he is still in the org Myers is moved to AAA, if their past is any indication I think Cameron Perkins goes to CLW and plays an OF corner with 3B blocked, Z. Taylor likely goes to LKW just to make room in WPT for a college draft pick in the OF. Then in the GCL I expect the debut of Jose Pujols in one of the OF corners.

    2. Most of the minor league OF contingents turn out to be 4 guys, so don’t see needing to have 5 spots for each team.

      Don’t see all this “keep James at AA’ deal, just cause it was said once and mimeographed on down the line. Move ‘im up. No reason not to , has the playing time in , time in grade, et. al.
      LVIP- J. James, T. Gillies, L. Castro ( the 4th OF guy could be anybody, but if they bring back D’Arby Myers after he goes to minor league free agency by offering this position , I think they can get him back.) The more veteran minor league guys are pushed out the top of the system, and I have Ruf as dealt to Cleveland as 1B/DH piece.

      RDG- P.Lavin, Z. Collier, A. Hewitt, D. Hillman
      CLW- B. Pointer, A. Altherr, K. Dugan, K. Hudson
      LKW- L. Greene, C. Tocci, D. Cozens, C. Perkins
      WPT- Z. Taylor, J. Tromp, Y. Olmo, D. Gonzalez
      GCL- G. Martinez, O. Marte, S. Hiciano, J. Pujols ( S. Golden, H. Rodriguez)

      The WPT and GCL contingents may be augmented by players from the next draft.
      The priority should be moving the talented guys up to where their abilities can be stretched to the maximum allowable. If some other players are pushed beyond where their acheivements might warrant, so be it.

    3. I agree with just about everything but I think Eldemire might move to Clearwater because of his age. Then it also opens a spot in Lakewood if they want to be aggressive with one of the GCL guys or put Perkins there.

  8. Any notion that Cozens somehow had a worse debut than Pullin can only be based on the vagaries on BABIP. Cozens showed an unexpectedly advanced feel for the strikezone, in game power, and from the reports I heard, playable athleticism in RF. Pullin happened to find the grass a bit more with the balls he hit. I am not saying Pullin didn’t have a fine debut, but Cozens is a way better prospect in my book (pending Pullin’s successful conversion to 2b, which makes the analysis a bit different).

    1. “pending Pullin’s successful conversion to 2b, which makes the analysis a bit different”

      I think the people rating Pullin higher are pretty much assuming the conversion to second base. I’d rank him higher myself because of that. Agreed though that the raw numbers are deceptive because of BABIP luck.

  9. I would not be too surprised to see Cozens earn a spot at Lakewood initially with the fallback to WSport an option. He is very young but he’s very talented. Pullin will be pushed at 2B. For me, Altherr, Pointer and Eldemere were the most disappointing of this group while Dugan was definitely the nicest surprise. Altherr showed enough to give a view of what might be. I do agree that Perkins will be shifted to RF and left there because there’s enough 3B prospects already and 1b is filled too. I think Jiwan will repeat at AA and play CF everyday, he’s at a crossroad of his career. Gillies, Ruf and Castro will play at AAA with Myers in reserve. They’ll add Pirdie or someone like him to the mix. Anyone know who was sent to the instructional league?

    1. FIL Attendees: Pitchers (23)
      Aizenstadt, Andrew, 23 (Norwell, Mass.)
      Alezones, Lewis, 16 (Barinas, Venezuela)
      Anderson, Andrew, 18 (Reno, Nev.)
      Bielski, Richard, 17 (Garden Grove, Calif.)
      Brady, Kevin, 21 (Gaithersburg, Md.)
      Cedeno, Erick*, 19 (Romana, DR)
      Cooper, Zack, 22 (Bloomfield Hills, Mich.)
      Francisco, Delvy, 19 (Villa Gonzalez, DR)
      Garcia, Elniery*, 17 (Cotui, DR)
      Giles, Ken, 20 (Albuquerque, N.M.)
      Gueller, Mitch, 18 (Rochester, Wash.)
      Guth, Jordan, 21 (Onalaska, Wis.)
      Hanson, Nick, 20 (Huntington Beach, Calif.)
      Kennelly, Tim, 25 (Perth, Australia)
      Mendez, Ronald, 19 (Anzoategui, Venezuela)
      Milner, Hoby*, 21, (Ft. Worth, Tex)
      Musser, Jonathan, 20 (Waukee, Iowa)
      O’Sullivan, Ryan, 21 (Spring Valley, Calif.)
      Stefan, Jeb, 22, (Lafayette, La.)
      Therrien, Jesen, 19 (Montreal, Quebec)
      Vargas, Franklyn*, 18 (Santo Domingo, DR)
      Walter, Kevin, 20 (Westminster, Colo.)
      Watson, Shane, 18 (Lakewood, Calif.)
      *Left-handers

      Catchers (6)
      Grullon, Deivy, 16 (Bonao, DR)
      Lino, Gabriel, 19 (Maracay, Venezuela)
      Ludy, Josh, 22 (Waco, Tex.)
      Mayorga, Jose, 20 (David Chiriqui, Panama)
      Moore, Logan, 20 (Loveland, Colo.)
      Numata, Chace, 18 (Pearl City, Hawaii)

      Infielders (13)
      3B Carmona, William, 21 (Hempstead, N.Y.)
      SS Cuicas, William, 17 (Barquisimeto, Venezuela)
      SS Green, Zach, 18 (Rocklin, Calif.)
      SS Greene, Tyler, 18 (Boca Raton, Fla.)
      SS Isava, Willerker, 16 (Margarita, Venezuela)
      3B Martinez, Harold, 21 (Mimia, Fla.)
      SS Mora, Angelo, 19 (Loma de Cabrera, DR)
      SS Olivera, Deiber, 20 (Barquisimeto, Venezuela)
      3B Perkins, Cameron, 21 (Indianapolis, Ind.)
      2B Pullin, Andrew, 18 (Centralia, Wash.)
      SS Quinn, Roman, 18 (Port St. Joe, Fla.)
      1B Serritella, Chris, 22 (Glenview, Ill.)
      3B Walding, Mitch, 18 (Stockton, Calif.)

      Outfielders (10)
      Cozens, Dylan, 18 (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
      Golden, Steven, 17 (San Leandro, Calif.)
      Greene, Larry, 18 (Nashville, Ga.)
      Hiciano, Samuel, 18 (Moca, DR)
      Marte, Olvy, 18 (Bonao, DR)
      Martinez, Gustavo, 18 (Maracaibo, Venezuela)
      Pujols, Jose, 16 (Santo Domingo, DR)
      Taylor, Zach, 21 (Statesboro, Ga.)
      Tocci, Carlos, 17 (Maracay, Venezuela)
      Zorilla, Freddy, 17 (La Guiria, Venezuela)

  10. So the assumption is that Pullin will jump Tyler Greene, and go to Lakewood. Not that I would disagree if that happens, but I’m a little surprised there is no consideration that the two players (+Villalobos) are competing for the spot.

  11. Greene had a .381 SLG, not .481. The only rating that struck me as odd is Pointer, who was double jumped for the majority of the year and, while striking out a decent amount, also showed good bb% and ISO for a 20 year old in full-season ball. I certainly have him above Altherr.

  12. I never really considered Kelly Dugan as a double jump candidate until reading this report, but it makes sense. Dugan will have to be protected on the 40 man roster after next season. With Dugan showing advanced on base skills in Lakewood, the double jump definitely wouldn’t be unprecedented.

  13. LV: Ruf, Gilles, Castro, Susdorf ?, Vet?
    Reading: Collier, James, Hewitt, Lavin, Myers?/Vet
    Clearwater: Dugan, Altherr, Eldemire, Alvarez,
    Lakewood: Greene, Cozens, Pointer, Hudson,
    Williamsport: Tocci, Tromp, Rodriguez, Knight, CollegeDraftee
    GCL: Pujols, Golden, HSDraftee, HSDraftee

    Assuming all these guys stay with organization (no Rule5 or trades)
    James first to bump to LHV, Lavin may be cut
    Dugan and Pointer could get bumped midseason with good 1st halves
    Need to clear out some spots for Draftees

    Eldemire is unlike to get to CLW but at least he’d be at the Training Facility when he gets injured again. The rest of the spots can be filled in by further fringe guys like Olmo, Taylor, Gonzlalez.

    1. Isn’t D’arby Myers eligible for Free agency? If he is eligible, he will probably get a fresh start in a different organization.

      1. I got him as eligible. Also: Michael Martinez (if unprotected) Steve LeRud (if unprotected), Harold Garcia, Tim Kennelly, Derrick Mitchell, Drew Naylor, Jason Pridie,
        and various more obvious minor league veterans.

  14. Strange treatment for a organization who desperately needs outfielder who can play an all around game

  15. A D for Tromp is unnecessarily harsh if we are grading relative to expectations. While his average was low his isolated power and other peripherals were decent. He was also pushed at age 18 to Williamsport. That alone shows the Phillies like him. I’d rate him as more of a C+ grade though still a major work in progress.

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