80 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-24-2012

  1. Rupp .305 after All Star break…not enough innings at Reading and LHV for Valle, Joseph, and Rupp.
    Morgan still doing his thing.
    Gueller 6 K’s in 3 innings

      1. ERA isn’t much of an indicator of anything at the minor league level (even in the majors it’s not a great point of reference, although it gives a better indication than in the minors). It’s just fun to look at sometimes. The best things to look at are K/9 and BB/9. That being said, the strikeouts are good to see, the BBs not so much.

  2. Ruf , just obscene!!! Gillies stays hot , along with Castro and Asche…

    Good games by Cesar H., Lavin , Rupp, Serritella , Perkins, LGJr

    Nice lines by Morgan, Manuare M., Lino Martinez…

      1. Must have hurt himself. He was scratched from a start about a week-and-a-half ago, was pushed back from his next scheduled one, etc. He did throw five relatively clean innings last turn in the rotation but he obviously is working through something.

    1. Yes! But Asche may take over the job soon after the season’s beginning. Frandsen is a good choice for fill-in infielder who looks pretty good in that role along with Galvis for extra fill-in infielders.

      IMO, there’s every reason to have Asche up to the bigs with the vacuum at 3rd base. My bet is, that with a little break-in time, Asche will well fill that position.

      1. If he continues to RAKE at winterball i can see him getting a serious look at Spring Training…. He is already UP three levels this season and still hitting .300…

        1. What happened to “nice” larry?! (but you are indeed right, BA is a poor choice of all the possible reasons to justify bumping asche up)

          1. Oh, I didn’t think I was so harsh, considering.

            I’m just getting really tired of the Art & Del show. They are interferring with my ability to enjoy the remarkable seasons that Ruf and Asche are having.

            I’m also honestly baffled at the facination some people have for BA, especially for minor leaguers, and especially for relatively SSS. I understand why some people don’t accept many of the insights of modern statistical analysis, I certainy understand why some people are wedded to the notion that some players are more”clutch” than others, I even understand why some people still underestimate the value of a BB. But I just don’t understand how fans who obviously follow this stuff pretty closely haven’t learned their lesson when it comes to minor league batting averages.

            1. I appreciate all the advanced stats we have these days. However, batting average has always been and always will be a very good statistic by which hitters are judged. If you can’t bat 300 in the minors, you ain’t doin it in the majors. Period.

            2. May do a longer post on this later. The issue isn’t so much BA as an evaluative stat (though to some extent that also), but more as a predictive stat, especially for minor leaguers.

              As for “If you can’t bat 300 in the minors, you ain’t doin it in the majors,” I’d say that is mostly true but irrelevant. For every 100 minor leaguers that can bat .300, maybe one can bat .300 in the majors. Maybe. Identifying that one player is more about contact rate, HR rate, speed (infield hits), and to some extent line drive rates. Even the last two are tricky, because, as important as they are, minor league success in those two areas does not gaurentee major league success. (Well, true of many minor league stats, but things like contact rate, HR rate, and BB rate tend to be more predictive.)

              If I was limited to 5 stats to make a prediction for major league success for a minor leaguer, BA would not be one off them. In fact, BA might not make the top ten.

            3. Some day the listings from baseball will have players in the top ten categories for ‘OBP’, ‘OPS’ and ‘ISO’….BA and RBIs will be referred to as the dark ages of unimportant statistical baseball.

            4. Yeah, see. I can’t agree. Without looking at anything, tell me the top twenty hitters of all time. I guarantee you that they have high 300 batting averages. Although their BB, ISO, LD%, etc may be vastly different.

            5. Annon,

              I wouldn’t go as far as first anon (who was probably being sarcastic anyway) – BA is an important evaluative stat, and even for a major leaguer with at least a few seasons under his belt, a decent predictive stat. The main points you are missing are minors versus majors, sample size, and, most importantly, evaluative versus predictive.

              But Looking at the top hitters ever … well, if you look at the very top, generally speaking yes, they have high BA – but that’s in part because the best of the best were great hitters across the board – in every category.

              What’s interesting though, is that the arguable second best hitter of all time – and a clear top 5 hitter of all time – had a career batting average under .300. So even for an evaluative stat, on a career basis where sample size is not an issue, BA has it’s limits. I would guess that a list of the top 10 SLG% or OBP of all time would give you a better list than the top 10 batting averages.

              It’s also interesting that, without exception, the players with the best batting averages over a career were players who had some combination of plus or plus plus contact skills, power, a high line drive rate, or speed. There is no single “skill” associated with a high batting average. And if you see a player in the minors with ordinary speed, contact skills, line drive skills, and power, who, despite that, has a high batting average, you can be sure that the batting average is to some extent an illusion. Sure, as in 100% of the time.

            6. Oh, come on, with the “below .300 life time batting average” give away you should be able to guess. It’s not like there are many candidates. :)

            7. :) Mantle is top ten in my book, but not 2. And he was a 310 hitter before his last few seasons dragged him down. Good trivia question though.

            8. Wow if you are saying MM is second best hitter , or even top 5, you are going to get a big time argument from most everyone… IF you meant BB, ill just laugh……

            9. Sigh, how soon they forget. No, not Mantle. But he is certainly another example of a very good hitter with a sub .300 BA,

            10. And yes, Bonds is certainly the correct answer. Some of you are going to reject him based on PEDs; I won’t go into the many reasons why that would be a mistake. But if we ignore the PEDs issue, which for the sake of this argument we should, his STATS certainly would make him a top 5 hitter of all time – certainly, there is no room for argument there. None at all.

            11. marfis, I believe what LarryM had said, the original anonymous was being sarcastic to some extent. Agree the general public will always identify with HRs, BAs, RBIs and the standard categories that are shown on TV and in print.

        2. Just in case you didnt know RAKING includes improved contact rate, improved power, his line drive % and any other hitting stats you want to include, it is an all encompassing term… Also most on this board ALREADY know of his positive traits and improvements, so dont really feel the need to Daily list all of the intricacies of his game including his above avg athleticism , his strong work ethic and his defensive plusses; If you are here and are informed you already know most of that, it doesnt need to be repeated again and again to appease the whiny vainglorious statiticians on the board…
          Inflating expectations?? really?? the kid has jumped three levels and adjusts and improves at each level, (list all the individual improvements in your head , im not going to). He is raising expectations himself ….. I am doing him a disservice, that is hilarious.
          Now Larry, throw that blanket off your legs , get up out of your easy chair and go yell at the neighbor kids to get off your lawn….

  3. 2014 Lineup:
    Gilles (CF in 2013)
    Utley (re-signed)
    Brown
    Howard
    Nelson Cruz (Cliff Lee Trade this off season)
    Elvis Andrus (Cliff Lee Trade this off season)
    Asche (3B in 2013)
    Joeseph
    *Rollins traded to Oakland

        1. What cracks me up about this is that it is simultaneously unrealistic (that we could get that for lee without eating most of his contract) and undesirable. I like andrus, but not Cruz, and losing lee would hurt the pitching. This is a 90 loss team.

  4. The absolute highest levels of Phillies brass were on hand in Reading last night. And I’m not talking about just RAJ although he was as well. Members of the Phillies ownership group were there, which is something I never heard of. I can’t imagine they are very much into the baseball operations management of players etc… It could just be they were checking up on their investment I guess after all they did buy the reading phillies in 2008

    1. And all the top prospects produced in the game which is great…. Asche, Morgan, Castro and Gillies all with Good games, dont even need to mention Ruf…

      Excellent to see all the BRASS taking notice and actually paying attention…

  5. Cesar a HR away from the cycle! Must really like that leadoff spot …

    LGJ and Serritella with nice games in WIL … Serritella is a strong candidate for a double jump to CLW next season.

    Reading’s lineup, simply put, is pure bliss.

    1. Agree about the reading lineup. Sure hope they keep the playoff spot (2 games up). Would be a great experience for them

  6. No matter your views on his prospect status, the month Ruf’s having is a lot of fun as a baseball fan. 16 HRs in August with a week to go.

    1. Exactly. He may be an older guy beating up on young competition, but what are we supposed to do-pretend this isn’t happening? Having seen this type of scenario before, i would bet against him being a major leaguer, but man, the guys numbers are starting to get nuts, so i’m not gonna tell anyone that he absolutely couldn’t be a major leaguer. There are always exceptions to the rule.

      1. What we are supposed to do is enjoy it for what it is without pretending that he is the next Ryan Howard. How hard is that? This isn’t aimed at you, but others, whose comments have diminished the pleasure that I have gotten from ruff’s remarkable season. And I know I am not the only person around here that feels that way.

        1. I know- who are these scum getting exciting about the performance of a phillies prospect on a phillies prospect website?

          1. Nothing wrong with getting excited – a lot of us are excited about Asche.

            There’s plenty wrong with taking an exciting prospect, exagerating his potential by a factor of 3, and then going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it, day after day, post after post, as if mere repitition of the same facts is going to convince the rational commenters here that, not only is Asche a better prospect than the national consensus (a reasonable proposition), but that he is one of the very best prospects in baseball (it he was as good as Del and Art think he is, he would deserve to be ranked among the top 10 prospects in the game).

            1. Look, Del, you and Art are apparently convinced that Asche is a future superstar – not maybe, but guarenteed. Fair enough, knock yourself out. Can you maybe shut up about it for ONE DAY? In the unlikely event thatg you are proven correct in the fullness of time (and, again, I think there is a good chance he will be a solid player, just likely no more than that), you would be FULLY justified in saying “I told you so.” Acting like every hit he gets proves that he is a future David Wright is embarrassing.

              As for the implication that all opinions were created equal, no, they are not. Not to be harsh, but the opinions of knowledgeable observers are more valuable than the opinions of … well, you and Art.

            2. Actually i have never stated he would be an ALL star or even a David Wright, if i did, then show me where i said that please. I beg of you to show me saying he is a superstar in the making.. My comments have always leaned toward the ” IF he keeps killing it like he has been and constantly adjusting to moving up levels, then he is going to be good and has a true shot at the BIgs”and he needs to get a serious look at LHV and ST if he keeps it up… Im sorry i use terms like “killing it” and “raking” or ON FIRE, to describe a players hitting prowess of late, if that offends you because we didnt mention his OBP, OPS, BABIT, K%, BB% etc. etc…then so be it, how did scouts EVER DO their job before SABERMETRICS came along???

              IF you get offended by me or anyone else getting excited about a prospect playing at a high level and us virtually high fiving, then big deal, drink a beer buddy and get mad about important things in life.

            3. If your pleasure is actually diminished by someone else’s over-excitement, you’re taking this too seriously.

            4. Larry: We should apologize for upsetting your equanimity. Surely you know more than everybody else. Those of us who appreciate superior play should apparently bow to yr superior “take” on all things baseball,.

              On behalf of the “unknowing”—we ask that you acquire some anti-depressants from your favorite studied medical source. I know you’ll then be better.

            5. If you know exactly who is and who isn’t a prospect, often times years before they even reach the big leagues, I’d rather you get a job with the Phils and impart this unique skill to the team’s, and my, benefit.

        2. You are not the only one that feels that way. Hate to admit it but some of the things I read here has taken away from my enjoyment of these guys’ seasons, especially Asche.
          Instead of commentors being happy that the Phillies have a prospect (Asche) that has shown he may have the ability to be a regular someday and another minor leaguer (Ruf) that may have the chance to contribute in the big leagues, you have to read how Law and Calis are idiots, because these guys are obviously future Allstars.

          1. Not idiots, but not fully informed.
            When Law says that Asche’s glove is a strong negative, when he as won strong praise for an above average arm, it is clear that Law is less than informed about Asche.

            Asche 2011, was fielding a new position (2b) and likely had some trouble there.
            Asche 2012 is back to his natural spot and completely re-worked his swing with tremendous results.

            If Law has seen more than a Single Game in 2012 from Asche I would be amazed.
            Same with Ruf regarding viewing his 2012 play.

            More than claiming they will be stars is a refusal to “Dismiss” them.
            It’s easy to claim they will fail, since even the majority of fairly highly ranked stars fail.
            So most likely they will not amount to much but to dismiss them as non-prospects does indicate working with outdated data by the national scouts.

            Expect the Tune of Law and others to change once they have an offseaon to review 2012.

  7. Now do we consider Rupp a prospect since he will be the same age in Reading next year as Ruf or do catchers get a little more time. Wow I think Biddle is the first Phillies prospect to top the hot prospect list since another stud lefty named Hamels. Man Lehigh is going to be an exiting team next year!

    1. If nobody gets a BIG league callup after spring training the LHV roster could be sick with
      Ruf, Gillies, Castro in OF. Valle (or Joseph), Cesar H. , Asche joining lineup also….
      with Rotation by mid season of Cloyd, pettibone, morgan, ethan Martin, and May…

    2. Rupp is more than two years younger than Ruf- he’ll be 24 for his entire Reading season next year, so about a year younger for the same level. Personally, I would give a catcher a little more time to develop the hitting because they have such great defensive responsibilities. I’m also pretty impressed by Rupp’s progress this year- moves to another pitchers’ league, walks up, strikeouts down, ISO up.

      1. Thanks Snood – that was the right amount of time to spend on Rupp. My post below, not so much.

        1. Thanks! And I didn’t realize before that post of yours just how blocked Rupp is after this season (hadn’t thought about his future placement).

          1. I think Rupp has a better chance to be a big leaguer than Valle. Rupp has what it takes to be a solid defensive backup catcher, with Valle, it isnt all there

    3. I consider Rupp a prospect in that I think his ceiling is still an average big league starter for maybe 3-5 years. His age constrains that more each year, but he’s got good defense, reasonable throw out rates, and hits for some power. Now, would I call him a top 10 in the system? No. Would I call him top 15-20? Possibly. He was my #15 last year, (maybe a reach), but a nice crop of young guys and the fact that he’s even more stuck behind Joseph and Valle now, and he’s probably towards 20 or lower.

      I personally think that mid-2011 Rupp could have gotten a call to A+ if Valle wasn’t there, and likewise mid-2012 to AA. He’s no blue chipper, and if I were guessing his likely career arc if he were traded somewhere next year that had a dearth of catching at the top levels of its minor leagues, I would guess that he’d start at AA and be in AAA by July, (with continued good hitting), and be a contender to be a big league backup in 2014, with a chance to start for a few years thereafter if he hits for power and doesn’t totally stink as a receiver. That’s a lot of dreaming. More likely he’s a AA catcher in 2013, AAA in 2014, and a big league back up or maybe a AAAA guy in 2015 and until his body gives up on him, flashing some power here and there and keeping his job based on that and defense.

      With the Phils, he’s totally blocked. His bat doesn’t play anywhere else. So where’s that leave him? Maybe AA next year taking whatever ABs and catching time he can get with Joseph spending some time at first and DHing, and maybe Rupp acts as the AAA call-up/down man to work through any injuries. Or a trade of Valle or Joseph makes some room for Rupp at AA.

      And that’s more time than anyone should probably spend on Cameron Rupp. And that’s why I called it an unhealthy obsession.

  8. Asche’s OPS is up to .861 in Reading. Amazingly, if he had enough PAs to qualify, that puts him at third in the league in that category, behind only Ruf and a 25-year-old Cleveland farmhand. Pretty impressive.

  9. Andrew Pullin back in the line-up today … 3-4 with 2 doubles. The good, I mean really good, Franklyn Vargas showed up … 3 IP, 1 hit, 1 BB and 6 K’s

    16 total K’s for phillies pitching, Walter 3.2 IP/5 K’s … francisco 2.1/5

    1. Coming down to the end of season in the GCL….Pullin, Green, Tocci, Cozens et al were very good reads this summer.

  10. I was thinking to myself today that I couldn’t remember the last time I went to a Reading Phillies game and did not see a Darin Ruf homerun, so I went through my ticket stubs and box scores, I have a hard time remembering it cause it was over a month ago…

    Jul 25th was the last time I went to a Reading Phillies game that Darin Ruf did NOT hit a home run (well maybe I didn’t go to a lot of games?), try again…

    July 29th vs New Britain, 2 HR’s  (#16 and #17)
    Aug 3rd vs Binghamton , 2 HR’s (#19 and #20)
    Aug 5th vs Binghamton, 1 HR (#22)
    Aug 8th @ Trenton, 1 HR (#23)
    Aug 13th vs Trenton 2 HR (#26 and #27)
    Aug 14th vs Trenton 1 HR (#28)
    Aug 15th vs Trenton 1 HR (#29)
    Aug 20th @ Harrisburg 1 HR (#31)
    Aug 21st @ Harrisburg 1 HR (#32)
    Aug 25th vs Erie- 1 HR (#34)

    Over the course of a month I went to 10 games, 7 home 3 away, in those 10 games I saw 13 Darin Ruf homeruns, (including 3 games with at least one) starting with his 16th on July 29th, and ending with his 34th last night.

    For some perspective in that July 25th game was the last start by John pettibone in an rphils uniform, Sebastian Valle was still the catcher, and Cody Asche came into the game with a .192 batting average

    1. So to people that have better stats, 19 HR’s in 27 days…. Anything like that ever been done before?

        1. Well what’s a month? An actual physical calandar date from 1 to 30 (31) or is it a period, if it’s a period 30-31 days Ruf has already surpassed York, Bonds and Ruth and is one shy of Sosa with 3-4 days left

    2. Was that July 25th game the one where you evaluated Cody Asche’s swing and concluded that he “has no future”?

      1. And that isn’t what i said, I said that he was “lost” against AA pitching and at the time he was

  11. Don’t know who the other selections are, but I can report with 100% certainty that Shreve, Knigge and Simon are headed to the Arizona Fall League.

    1. If Shreve performs well in the AFL, the Phillies will have to use another spot on the 40 man, to protect him. Some tough decisions. May, Pettibone, Martin, Rodriguez, Cloyd and Collier. Along with maybe’s Castro, Ruf, Hyatt, Duran, James and Shreve.

      1. I don’t think it would be hard to leave Shreve unprotected. I’d rather protect any one of those other guys, by a lot. Colby has probably only been the second best pitcher named Shreve in MILB this year.

        1. I agree. I would protect all of the other guys over Shreve. I just don’t see the logic, of showcasing Shreve in the AFL, knowing they won’t be able to protect him in the Rule 5.

          1. AFL teams are just that teams. Not every pitcher sent there will play a key role or get a lot of work. Teams need little used middle relievers as well . It could be that Philly sent these middle relievers in order to get position players they place there substantial playing time while other teams supplying players ( the AFL entry is shared with 4 other teams) get there key pitchers well placed. I don’t think teams will be there drooling over Colby Shreve. If an MLB team wants to pay 25,000 for Colby Shreve and keep him on the MLB roster all season, good on ‘em.

    2. Thanks for that. Without naming your source, unless you want to, is that coming from inside the org?

  12. Andrew Pullin (age 18) now has the highest OPS of all 2012 draftees playing in the GCL. His OPS is 3rd overall in the league, behind a couple 21 year olds.

  13. in case you missed it Biddle is no. 1 this week for baseball america—-http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613951.html

  14. Well I’m at readings game tonight and probably will come to every game through thurs, hyatts on mound tonight so nothing much to talk about there Ruf is DH tonight but I will be sure to post his 35th HR I will post about Asche an whatever else people want to hear about

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