Solid outing for Austin Wright. Bombs from Altherr and Franco but Lakewood goes down in the end.
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Not a banner day for the pharm. But that’s two strong starts in a row for Wright after muddling along for awihle
Actually, that’s 6 good outings in his last 7. In the 7 games, he has a 2.66 ERA. If you remove that one lousy game, he has a 1.95 ERA in the 6 good outings. His K/9 rate is down a little in those 7 games but his BB/9 rate has also come down a little. He’s been moved aggressively but he’s a big college guy and hasn’t disappointed, I see him starting in Reading next year but that may depend on how some of the baby aces perform.
I guess it depends what you count as a good outing. The 5 inning, 8 hit, 3 walk, 3 K game isn’t good, for example, although he only gave up 2 ER. I was mostly talking about the games where he keeps baserunners to a minimum. He wasn’t getting hammered, just wasn’t putting up impressive lines.
Trevor May…really? This has been a god awful stretch. Maybe they do the little Brody Colvin bullpen thing where he pitches 9 innings over the span of a couple relief outings.
Dead arm for May?
Wow Trevor may giving up 4 long balls, and JC Ramirez just flat out sucks. Nice to see Franco with another HR, it would be great to see his contact rate increase as the power is clearly there.
I sent in a First Hand Report from Lehigh Valley from a couple nights ago, it was never posted but what I saw from Ramirez was given the fact he is on the 40-Man, he will probably be up in September, but don’t expected stellar MLB numbers, the kid has a heavy fastball, a splitter/changeup (couldn’t tell), and a 12-6 curveball. Could be solid middle to back end reliever. So I wouldn’t exactly say he sucks
So let’s just say his results suck.
Pretty much, he just needs to work on command because he leaves his FB over the plate too much
Last 74.2 IP…., 76 H, 57 R, 53 ER, 52 BB, 71 K, 18 HR, 6.39 ERA
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Purely lack of consistency and command. The minors are full of guys that can hit purely located fastballs, even if they are coming in at 95.
What are the reports on Ruf in LF. Can he handle it. Can he be as serviceable as Burrell was out there? Not saying he will hit like Burrell but maybe as a platoon guy or a guy off the bench who can play first and left? Hopefully he can be slightly below average and not awful in left.
Made a couple nice plays in Left on Saturday in Reading. He might hack it, but SSS and all.
Call me crazy but I believe Ruf can be like Jayson Werth. A late bloomer with a good bat, Ruf has a short stroke just like him from the right side
Werth was set back because of injury problems. I don’t even know if it’s fair to call Ruf a late bloomer because he’s never really struggled in the minors. Just didn’t seem to have the tools that scouts look for in a 1B, so he was never aggressively promoted. I think Ruf and Werth could hardly be more different.
Werth is also significantly more athletic, and has a much better arm than Ruf.
Well bat wise he could be the same. Glove, defensive big liability, but this is the same team who employed Pat Burrell in left for 8 years. Maybe that would be a better comparison
That’s a lazy comparison on the basis of wanting to find a positive outcome for Ruf. Problem is Ruf almost certainly won’t finish this, his age-25 year, above AAA, and might not even see that level. Burrell ended his age-25 season with over 80 career MLB homers.
I think part of the problem is that it’s been so long since the Phillies developed a regular position player that people forget just what one looks like in the minors. Not taking anything away from Ruf, who probably does have a major league bat as a left fielder, he is no Burrell, whose AA season (1999) was much better than Ruf’s this year – as a 22 year old.
Probably. I find this comparison particularly frustrating because Burrell was such a high-profile prospect in our own system.
Burrell’s age 22 season got him rated the #2 prospect in baseball by BA. Nobody is saying that about Ruf. At that point, Burrell looked like a lot more than just a normal regular.
Agreed. Even though I really like Ruf, it’s like night and day. One is athletic and fast, the other is not and is slow. Outfielder. Infielder. Highly touted first round pick. Mildly regarded middle round pick. Nothing even vaguely similar.
Drago tweet:
Trevor May, after yielding 4 HRs: “I feel all the work is paying off, it just needs to make an appearance on the mound in a game.”
At least it sounds like he’s remaining confident. The right mindset should help him get through this eventually.
Trevor May is terrible…. 4 HR’s?? I think you can spin bad outings when he throws up a lot of walks as just control issues, but in my opinion a prospect with his pedigree should not be getting banged around with 4 Homers.
Im nervous about getting in hot water with the “General Discussion Police” with this comment, but Id definitely look to see if I could package him with Victorino to Pittsburgh for Starling Marte or maybe another deal to SD for Headley. 5.25 ERA is not encouraging.
Well, if you’re concerned about the “police”, why not just post in the right thread?
Come on Cholly. This is a young pitching prospect with great stuff, he just needs to work on some things. There is no point in trading him for anything. People have to be patient with young pitching. He’s healthy, he’s young, and he has great stuff. Just relax
You want to trade him when he has no value?
What, nobody finds it curious that Roman Quinn is removed in (what) the 2nd inning for defensive purposes . Don’t see anything about it in the re-cap or the Mahoning Valley write-up. I figure because he was thrown out at 1st in the inning before, maybe a hamstring thing. Who knows.
Sore hand
I am sure Mitch Rupert will report on it some time this morning.
He tweeted it last night. Sore hand is correct.
Yup, not a leg thing. Been dealing with a sore hand. Got jammed pretty good in the first. Came out for warm-ups and he called out the trainer and they decided to take him out. Andy Tracy said they’ll know more about it today.
15 errors for Gabriel Lino as a Catcher. Thought that was a misprint. Don’t believe that includes passed balls. So maybe if that is the case, he’s got some defensive issues and maybe even if it is not. Maybe the jaw-dropping idea he could be traded for Jim Thome makes more sense now, and it looks like more of a long-term thing.
Franco now with 10 HR’s, Ruf playing LF lately now at 17 HR’s, Hewitt, I think was around 12 HR’s last time I looked, has been getting some hits for a recent time and has struck out less. Valle has around that many HR’s also So, these will look likely to advance within the system for the next season at least, And the outlook to move more so in succeeding years. A HR is a run, not something that requires a follow-up to get a run.
No need to re-hash the whole, “Ruf has been a minor leaguer-can never be an MLB’er” thing, in the manner of Rizzotti. Rizzotti is with Oakland now, and as a “Money Ball” pick , if he can get higher he has the best chance of going higher in the source waters of “Money Ball”. And he was the Phillies “Money Ball ” pick, taken in the 6th round, one pick ahead of Anthony Rizzo, who, as a High School pick had no reliable stats whatsoever. So, if you are a “Money Ball” advocate , Rizzotti is your guy, own him.
Errors for catchers are usually on throws. Fifteen errant throws can be corrected by footworks. I imagine they are working on that. I expected Valle would have more HR and RBI at Reading. He is becoming the kind of defensive catcher that will provide him time to hone his hitting. He is a solid prospect. Franco is hitting the long ball. He will get better. Nice to see.
It could be footwork. Someone posted a firsthand account of Lino last week, said he gunned down a runner at second from his knees. Though it worked out there, I wonder if that’s something he makes a habit of leading to some throwing errors? Anyone else seen him throw?
Additionally, as typically used to drop the stock of good performances, Franco’s BABIP is unsustainably low. I expect his “adjusted BA” would be closer to .270 … given his power and uptick in walks this year (6%), it’s not a bad perfomrance at all.
If he can be a 7% walk rate, 25 HR, .275 player, I see no reason he can’t be a solid starter at 3rd on a contender. He’s a nice prospect for sure (though I wouldn’t call his cieling as MVP/Allstar cailiber).
Given his age/level, I wouldn’t necessarily put that cap on his ceiling, though the reportedly limited athleticism does suggest you are likely correct. But likely doesn’t equal certainty. Really a 7% BB rate, 25 HR, .275 is already IMO better than solid as a third baseman (again recognizing he is still a long way from that, at least in terms of projection). If the BA or BB% ticks up a bit (possible, though as with any prospect far from certain), and he sticks at third, all star is not out of the question.
Heck, whoever imagined Ruiz would be an all star.
For once, I agree with the marfis, on the Money Ball eval. Perhaps the Phillies drafted incorrectly confusing the last Italian surnames!
Marphis once again misses the forrest for the trees. Though part of the blame falls upon Lewis, who probably wasn’t as clear as he should have been about what modern statistical analysis is all about.
While Rizzotti certainly had some characteristics that appealed to us stat guys:
(1) His age told against him,
(2) His defense told against him (once a blind spot of some stat guys, but hasn’t been for years), and
(3) His BA was never suyatainable.
None of these are – or should be, at least – observations unique to stat guys. Not saying the “traditional” evaluators got it worng either. The guys excited about him were the guys who didn’t know traditional or modern analysis.
Marfis, don’t you think it matters that us actually existing stat guys got it right regarding Rizzotti means something. Saying “no, no, no, you SHOULD have liked him, you SHOULD have been wrong about him,” just sounds desperate and silly.
Valle and Ruf will advance and are still prospects, albeit both with (very different) cautions. Hewitt, of course, is not a prospect. Unikely to play in the majors at all; there is no chance that he will have more than, at most 100 major league PA, even that unlikely.
Okay, let’s call the Rizzotti pick a MoneyBalloid pick. Why then didn’t they take Anthony Rizzo, I will assume money concerns did not apply.
As for the rest of the situation. I once set out to do an exhaustive analysis of the MoneyBall thing. I got as far as the first 2 draft picks they made, when they passed over Matt Cain and Cole Hamels.. I then declared it a crashing failure. A factor in this was I once read that Sandy Alderson, who was , in fact, Billy Beane’s mentor, declared that they had a policy of passing over High School pitchers, and many other High School types, because they did not have adequate stats through which to make an evaluation. This goes beyond simply being wrong on an evaluation, it seems to be a case of being hamstrung by trying to conform to the pre-set notions of a philosophy.
Well that’s a fair criticism – of Billy Beane, not of modern stat analysis generally.
Part of Beane’s problem is that the rest of the league caught up with him. On balance, despite some blind spots, he was able to win many more games than he “should” have won given his payroll. But it was the very fact that most other teams incorporated modern statistical analysis that undercut his “edge.”
Of course, at the most basic level, Money Ball was not about stats, but about exploiting market inefficiencies. Which, if you can do it, is a always a winning strategy. But it’s become harder to do that as front offices have become smarter, largely by incorporating modern analysis. Not replacing traditional analysis – no one really favors that – but by supplementing it.
Not to harp on your blind spot, Marfis, as you are being polite so will I, but a significant part of that is the realization of how important BB are in player performance and evaluation. Not, of course, to the exclusion of all else, but more important than realized under traditional analysis.
I’d add that part of Beane’s justification for avoiding high school kids was that historically they had been overvalued – and that could be shown pretty conclusively through analysis of draft position versus major league success. That has shifted over time (partly because other teams picked up on the same research) to the point that, if anything, the opposite is now true.
One thing is for sure…Beane winning had absolutely nothing to do with his rotation of Zito, Hudson and Mulder…who, at the time, were all elite and had absolutely nothing to do with Moneyball. It was all because they signed David Justice and Scott Hatteberg.
LOL, absolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, huh?
I almost was too lazy to look to see if my memory matched reality, but it did. All three pitchers named were drafted and developed on Beane’s watch. And all three were … college players.
So yeah, he (and “Moneyball”) gets credit for them.
The man wasn’t/isn’t perfect, he made mistakes, but his team had an eight year run of finishing 1st or second, with 5 playoff appearnances, despite low payrolls, on Beane’s watch (and recall he was assistant GM before he took over as GM, and the team adopted “Moneyball” tactice before he was GM).
You can do that with every team every year in the draft. Hindsight is 20/20. Rizzo was drafted in 2007 and it wasn’t until 2011 that he became a Top 100 prospect. So its not like he was a consensus stud. Maybe the Phillies thought they saw something in Rizzotti. Maybe their scouts didn’t like Rizzo.
As for Moneyball, I don’t think you are seeing the big picture as to what it was truly about. Moneyball was not saying these stats are the holy bible and they are all that matters. It was about finding market inefficiencies to see what other teams are overvaluing and try to exploit what other teams undervalue.
Moneyball was at the time and will continue to be a work in progress. Their theory about drafting proven college players has shown to not be as effective as they thought. They have since backed off that philosophy, but you can never know until you try it out. The theory about OBP being important proved correct but now every other team in baseball has recognized that and it is no longer undervalued.
As for passing over Hamels I don’t blame them. He had a broken arm, had to have surgery to put in screws, missed his entire Senior Year and no one was sure whether or not he would be able to pitch again at a high level. That gamble worked out, but look a few years later when the Phils took a similar gamble with Joe Savery and it failed.
Moneyball was about selling books, not about running a baseball organization.
Tell us what that means, Dan in Philly. It seems like it was a book about running a baseball organization.
Maybe she can give Brown some fielding pointers? *rimshot*
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23297081&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_23297081&v=3
anyone know why Brown hasn’t played for a few days?
Got pulled Sunday because of his knee. Sandberg said it was a scheduled day of yesterday. The Morning Call article today seems to say he’s okay.
thanks
Am I seeing correctly that Luis Paulino is a converted position player? Now at 23 Years of age does he have the stuff to get guys out at the MLB level? I like his WHIP and I like his K/9 so far but again it is low A.
Yeah, he played 3B for , I believe , 3 years in the DSL. Big and Strong. I give him a shot at going on the 40 man roster, or , if not, getting snapped up.
They’re doing this with Delvi Francisco as well. He just started pitching this season after a .764 OPS as an 18/19 year old in the DSL last year. RHP listed on BA as 6’1″, 190lbs, turns 20 in a month. Good K rate in a miniscule sample of 5.2 IP. Have to wait and see on him.
Paulino, IMO, is much too green to go MLB Rule 5 this off-season, whether he has good stuff or not (I have no idea). He’ll likely have less than 75 pro IP and it’s not like his K numbers are through the roof – 8.34/9 so far this year. That being said, you never know when a scout might see something worth taking a run at.
Interesting thanks Marfis and Brad. Does he have a big arm 95+? Just curious not a big deal if you don’t know.
Not a clue.
I seem to recall someone saying he was a 93-95 guy. There is just about zero zilch chance he gets taken in a rule 5 draft.
What exactly is the concern or caution about Ruf ? He graduated from college three years ago. It’s not like he’s a lifetime minor leaguer. I would appreciate it if someone has a thorough report on him. And yes, I know he’ll be 26 next week..
His bat can likely play in the majors, but unlikely as a front-line 1B. If he can play adequate LF, then he might be able to have a major league career.
I like what I see and hear from Joe Jordan. He flat-out says he moves guys up, in referencing to challenging their skills and maturity at the next higher level, ie Asche. Maybe he will force-feed the college guys more quickly through the lower levels, an ‘up-or-out; philosophy so to speak. Perhaps the days of the 25-year old guy lingering at AA will be history.
Sorry …this should have been in the Media Report Thread.
I hope so too, as Chris Duffy is 25, hitting 1.001 in Lakewood and still not in Clearwater
Want to see what Joe Jordan does with his first draft class of collegiant position players, ie Serritella, Perkins, Ludy, Carmona etc.
I don’t know about the other guys, but Ludy should be tagged for Clearwater next year. I’d guess with Valle in AAA, Rupp in AA, Ludy can handle Clearwater and not be extremely old for the level. The catching situation in the system suddenly looks like it could be deep again.
I actually see Valle repeating AA which means some against the grain decisions on the catchers we have will be forth coming. I don’t see Schneider back so I can see Tuffy or Kratz getting the back up job full time with the other splitting time with Rupp in AAA.
One way or the other I see Rupp possibly being double jumped through no fault of Valles he is age appropriate again next season at AA.
If Rupp keeps raking maybe they send him to AFL to see how he hits upper echelon guys and possibly he could double jump. Assuming they think Valle isn’t ready for AAA. Which I don’t necessarily assume.
I wouldn’t be disappointed if that happens. I think Valle could use another year in AA but I also thought the Phils would see it differently than I. Also I wonder if May and J-Rod probably repeating AA will affect what they do with the catchers.
have to say adam morgan thru 3 innings!!!!! 7 Ks?!?!?!?!?!?! wow!
He’s opening some eyes lately.
9 k’s through 5 for Morgan. It’s about time he get’s called up to Reading. Rosenberg has 9 k’s through 5 innings with only 1 walk tonight for LHV. I’m kind of excited about Rosenberg. He’s shifted to a starting role and has been great.
Best SP we have in LHV.
Morgan is about to rocket and I mean ROCKET through the prospect rankings. He could be a top 50 prospect by the middle of next year. Don’t look now, but the future aces of this team reside mostly in Clearwater, not Reading. And I say this out of respect for May (who will ultimately be fine) and Pettibone (who will be the first of this group to reach the majors IMHO), both of whom I like very much (Rodriguez is no big deal as far as I can tell).
I obviously love Morgan (had him posted as 5th in our system at midseason), but my one caveat is this — we saw similar things from the current Reading staff at CLW last year as well. The differences between the FSL and Eastern League are pretty significant. A+ to AA is one of the biggest jumps, and I’m looking forward to seeing how these guys would do.
Based on performance it seems like Morgan has a good reason to be in Reading over Hollands. But I agree with you. We haven’t heard anything about his stuff being fantastic; he just locates and has solid secondary stuff. That could get him to the majors but “future ace” is stretching it.
His FB is plenty, especially for a lefty. I see his upside as a 3, with an outside shot as a 2 depending on how strong his command becomes as he matures.
Cliff Lee throws 91 so its possible.
Lee can hit 94 with some consistency though. I don’t know that Morgan can, but even if the answer is yes it’s unlikely he’s got Lee’s (usual) control.
Reports from earlier this year had his velocity in the range of a Lee or a Hamels. He is said to have very good stuff and he must have very good stuff to strikeout 13 without walking a batter. That’s phenomenal.
Chris I am really confused on rosenberg. when he was up here he threw hard and they hit him, now as a starter he is really coming on, I believe they said he only had fastball slider, thought as a starter he needs at least another pitch, morgan numbers are really good, hope he does get call up to reading.
Well he’s certainly been intriguing. Maybe he can work on a change or something.
He only had 2.1 IP in the majors. Not exactly a great sample size.
Can those of you who attend LVIP games tell us more about Rosie’s repertoire? Is he throwing mainly FBs? Does he have a third pitch? What is his velo?
The lineup he faced tonight had some former major leaguers in it too, it was not some cream puff lineup.
I watched some of it online. FB was 93-94, consistently, in the 1st and 3rd innings. Didn’t see the other innings, unfortunately. Didn’t notice a ton of offspread, but was alt tabbing also watching the Phils.
Per PP “The reports on Rosenberg entering the season were a 93-95 fastball, a good slider, and an okay change.”
It was also noted that his velocity was a tick higher from the bullpen, vs starting. Might be someone that can’t throw that hard for 7+. We shall see when they finally stretch him out.
Additionally — he threw out of the stretch even w/o runners on-base.
My observations from seeing him pitch last week were that he was very intriguing, I assume he is starting because they A) don’t want to call up one of the Big Three, or B) letting him get more experience quicker after learning what big league hitters are like when he had his brief cup of coffee. I still think the Phillies see him as a reliever because He pitched all out of the stretch, no windup to be found.
I heard Benny Looper say on the radio that Rosenberg is starting because they wanted to force him to use his breaking ball. He was able to get away with just the fb when he was pitching one inning out of the pen. Sounds like the plan is for him to go back to relief eventually.
He threw 80 pitches and his velocity on the FB was consistently at 92-94 (and more on the high side of that number) on the Lhv gun all night. I think that gun is maybe 1 to 2 MPH slow, so he had very good velocity and he has okay movement on the pitch. His curveball is an above average pitch and he throws a change that, at times, is actually very good. His command was good. Rosenberg certainly has the stuff to be a middle of the rotation starter in the big leagues but, hell, if he could be an effective 4 or 5, that would be great. I like Kendrick in the swing man/long relief role better in any event.
Morgan ends his night with 13 K’s in 7 innings of work. Pure dominance.
13 ks, zero walks
For the season, 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Those peripherals (in addition to a great H/9 and decent HR/9) are flat out phenomenal.
Like his WHIP of 1.1.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120724&content_id=35500628&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_share
This quote says it all. Great to see a kid who is so determined, with a good mind set.
“My arm felt great. I told my coach the other day, this is the strongest I’ve felt all year and it’s weird because we’re close to the end,” he said. “Of course I want to go out there, but you don’t want to argue. I figured there’s a reason behind it. I didn’t argue, I don’t know what my count is, it’s none of my business. I go out there and do my thing until they say that’s it.” -Adam Morgan
Morgan and Cloyd are the Pitchers for my 2012 Yet to be called up to the next level team. Brown in the OF and Duffy at first
Manny Martinez with a good outing in the GCL game.
Anthony Hewitt errors are alarming.
That is good news on Morgan. Between him and Wright one of them could get a shot sooner rather than later. And why not they did it with Kendrick a few years back. Now that Hamels is in the fold I hope the plan is still to get some youngers in the line-up.