Cesar was 4-6 with a 3b in the Reading double header today. And another nice outing from Mario Hollands…too many hits, but 7k and no walks. Throwin’ strikes.
Hey guys, I just added the Lakewood pitching lines.
LV Off REA1 REA2 CLR LKW DSL VSL
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You know it’s over for Utley when Hewitt outhits him*
*ignoring small sample size
I’m thinking Cesar gets a September call up if this continues..
I think he gets the Galvis treatment this year. As in Galvis in 2011. Probably gets bumped to Lehigh late in the year. Hit tool appears to be 60+
I think because of Galvis’s performance this year, Cesar will get treated more aggressively…
Cesar now leads the Eastern League in triples (he’d been tied with Gillies at six a piece). His OPS is .817. Gotta love that out of a second base prospect.
Interestingly, Ruf is second in the league in OPS at .953. I’d be interested to see what he could do at AAA as well.
Galvis was overmatched at the plate as expected. .617 OPS in 200 PAs. I don’t see how his performance makes it more likely that Cesar gets called up.
I think people tend to overrate his performance because he came up with some big hits with RISP. Don’t get me wrong, I like that too, and I always like seeing Phillies fans embracing a prospect, but Galvis has got a long way to go, and the injury won’t help.
How does Freddy compare to the other 8-hole hitters?
The NL average for #8 hitter production this season is .240/.309/.363.
.617 is quite good for a rookie SS, who is a great defender, especially considering he was learning 2B as a new defensive position and excelling. I think the Phillies are very pleasantly surprised by how well Galvis did with the bat.
I think so too. Some will try to take the air out of it…but its undeniable – Galvis surprised everyone. It goes to show you can just trust the metrics…sometimes you have to throw them in there and wait.
meant – can’t just trust
I’m not a sabr guy but it would certainly seem that the metrics regarding Galvis were generally correct. he’s a very good defensive .230 hitter with little power and low OBP and that is what the number’s show.
He certainly beats having Martinez playing 2b but a playoff team doesn’t have too many Galvis’s in their day-to-day line-up.
It’s true that you don’t need to use any advance statistics to see that Galvis is, at this point, a very weak hitter. Of course he is good defensively and young enough that he could grow as a hitter. But the level of enthusiasm for him seems based upon … no evidence at all. This isn’t about traditional baseball versus modern analysis. There’s just no way to make .226/.254/.363 look good, though in fairness the .137 ISO was certainly a pleasant surprise. But not enough of one to make him much of a hitter at this point.
The interesting thing to see will be what happens next year. Rollins isn’t going anywhere. Utley is a big question mark at this point, but if he isn’t going to be healthy enough to play second, I’d kind of like to see a FA signing of a guy who is going to hit more than .226. OTOH, Galvis could grow into a decent hitter, and the question is, what do you do with him next year (assuming he recovers fully from his injury)? Since both Rollins and Utley, even if the latter is healthy, are likely not going to play anywhere near 162 games, I could see Galvis getting 200 to 300 PA as a reserve. Would that be better for his development than a return to AAA? Probably – and I do think he could help the team in that role.
Should we be concerned about the unbelievable number of times he is getting picked off or Caught stealing on the Basepaths? Seems every game he gets 2 hits and 1 caught stealing.
He certainly appears to need additional coaching there.
Well, Robinson Torres is going to be bruised in the morning.
Wow, that’s crazy. Don’t think I ever saw that before….even in little league.
what happened to him?
Hit by pitches three times in the game. But he managed to hit a triple somewhere in there too…
He was HBP three times in a row his first 3 AB’s.
Pettibone has settled in nicely. In his last 7 outings he’s had 1 bad one. He’s given up 14 runs in those outings and 7 came in that one bad outing. His ERA over that stretch is 2.68 and 1.54 if you through out that one stinko.
He has weird splits though. Against lefties he has a 5.26 ERA but they only hit .232 against him. Against righties he has a 2.83 ERA but they are hitting .310. If I was trying to make some sense of that I guess I’d have to say he gives up a lot of hits to righties but is able to make the right pitch at the right time to get out of it. Against lefties he gives up more BBs and he doesn’t quite have that out pitch to get himself out of trouble. I haven’t seen him this year so I’m going by stats alone.
Pettibone will be a MLB pitcher. Lots to like there
What can I say about Hewitt? He’s hitting .239 on the year and also in his last 10 games. He hit .240 last year. His 1st 3 years in pro ball he had more Ks than total bases. He broke that string last year and he’s continuing doing better with that. So overall, I’d say he’s consistent. I’d call it consistently bad or maybe consistently below average. An alarming stat is that he has 13 errors this year. I heard he was a good fielder with great closing speed on the ball and a strong arm. Is he getting to balls most guys can’t get to and just flubbing them? Is he overthrowing the ball into the dugouts? Last year he had 7 Es in 80 games. Has he suddenly got Brown-itis?
13 errors is staggering for any OF receiving a paycheck. How is that even possible? And to think he is in the OF because they thought he would be a better outfielder than infielder.
lets just say this…if he wasn’t such a high draft pic…he would be selling cars by now
If he did not have high end baseball tools he would have another job by now. The Phillies have cut high priced players before. He is making progress this year: higher level, lower K rate, OPS slightly up. Any time you do that advancing a level is a good thing. Errors are a concern because his defense in the OF was supposed to be decent.
On the OF defense, I think I have heard that he is fast and has a strong arm but does not always take good routes. I’m not sure how that turns into errors, it’s just what I’ve heard.
Cisco is getting near the below 1.00 line. “THE INVISIBLE MAN”
Cisco and Friend are both doing a great job at Reading, but little talk about them–this is the 3rd year for Cisco at Reading–you would think that one or both would move up to the Pigs somwtime this summer. I feel we should start moving some of these guys up and give them a chance because the Phillies bullpen is in shambles now. Both are in their mid 20s.
I know Cisco is a smallish righty, but still he has been very productive when he’s been healthy. He really needs to be given a better look by the Phils
No clue why both are still in Reading at all. I figured one, if not both would’ve been in the Pigs bullpen to start the year at least. Only time will tell I suppose.
Cisco has pitched well despite allowing more hits. His walks have gone down, strikeouts up. The one problem though is he’s allowing more baserunners than total. I think that ERA is flukish in that it’s not really indicating how well he’s really pitching. Reliever ERA can be quite deceptive because of the way earned runs are charged to pitchers. Cisco’s WHIP is 1.25. How many pitchers who allow that total of baserunners have ERAs near one?
That sounds like a lot of sabermetric stuff so let me break it down into simple terms. Over nine innings, the stats show an average of 11-12 baserunners allowed and one run scored. Unless you’re facing the Phillies’ offense in April, that math just doesn’t hold up.
Really love the daily boxscores ty for that, pettibone really interest me, is he another kendrick or a legit 3 in majors? on the whole I Hope we get some good signs out of last years draft, cause right now there isnt much down on the farm to really get excited about,
Bonilla continues to look good out of the pen. Really hope he gets a chance to start in the 2nd half. His K numbers are outstanding.
Does anyone know what pitches Bonilla throws? Does he have a third pitch?
I think I saw Fastball, Change Up, and Slider in spring training when he got his cup of coffee.
Since he is one of our top position prospects, what kind of numbers do we want to see from Valle as the season progresses. It would be nice if he could get his batting average higher than his OBP, but we might need to accept that he’s not going to walk his way to the Phillies (to loosely paraphrase that shortstop from the mid-80s. Does anyone remember who said that?). BA isn’t so much a concern – I’d like a bit more power in his bat. His ISO right now is .150 – if he could get the up around .175, I’d be stoked. From all accounts, his defense is very good, and he’s probably on track to split time with Ruiz in 2014, then maybe take over full time in 2015.
- Jeff
I think one interpretation of the expression was….’You cannot walk your way off the islands to the majors’…reference to Latin players from DSL. Was it Manny Sanguillen?
More and more I see Valle as the second coming of Miguel Olivo.
Congrats, Kyrell. You finally did it. .200.
And 22 steals
Before going to the milb boxscores to look a little closer, RE: the Clearwater game, how can a team win a 9 inning game and have their last pitcher (Miguel Alvarez ?) record zero outs?
Also , would like to point out, there is no pitching information for the Lakewood game.
A pickoff or caugt stealing might have happened.
Don’t know what’s up with the Clearwater pitching,the extra pitcher doesn’t show up here though; http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_06_13_clrafa_tbyafa_1
The pitcher for Lakewood was Josh Warner.He let up 5 hits, 3 runs none were earned 2K’s and 2BB. He pitch all 5 innings in the game.Anyone know why the game was cut short? Rain’s my guess. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_06_13_delafx_lwdafx_1
Yeah, the Clearwater box shows Hector Neris finished the game and no Miguel Alvarez pitching, and nothing about it in the re-cap. Maybe a mistake was made somewhere.
Warner finally gets up to Lakewood and has a good game. Maybe he stays there.
With Lino Martinez on the DL, still only count 5 likely starters, assuming Ervis Manzanillo can’t work his way back quick. That Williamsport staff might not have Josh Warner on it.
Fixed.
Ok , the Lakewood thing is fixed.. I was wondering about the Clearwater thing though. Curious where that came from . Neither the milb boxscore or re-cap has anything about it . Also , above , Alvarez in addition to being the last pitcher in a 9 inning game his team wins and recording zero outs, the pitching info afterwards says in addition to the 0-0 ground ball outs to fly ball outs, he faced zero batters, yet the line above says he gave up a run. How do you face zero batters and be charged a run?
Just wonder where it came from.
Most likely is was a mistake with the milb.com site that has since been fixed on the site. It really isn’t that big of a deal. Let it go!
He didn’t pitch. He gave up a run that wasn’t scored. Poor data management by the boxscore guy for that game. That’s all.
Atta boy Kyrelll!!!!!!!!!!! .200!!!!!!! We made it!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice to see Pettibone and before him Colvin put together some good outings.
What is even the plan for Hewitt at this point? Do you move him aggressively to Reading next year? Let him flounder in FSL? Do you think somebody will pick up him in the Rule 5? hahahahaha that was joke
Its a tiny sample but it looks like Asche is being more patient now that his bat is cooling off.
3 walks in the last five games before that he had 8 walks on the entire season.
we suspected the low BB was due to hot bat rather than lack of discipline. He needs to get those power numbers up though.
Has Cesar surpassed Valle as our top position prospect?
I think so. I’m not even that bothered by Valle’s season so far, because he’s young and a catcher. But Cesar is hitting so much better, and they’re the same age.
No because talent in Valle position is much more valuable than it is at Cesar’s.
take a look around, 2nd base has become a weak position
Positional scarcity only takes you so far. A batter who projects as a possible #1 or #2 hitter is probably a better prospect than a hitter who profiles better at #7.
Worth noting: Severino Gonzalez now has a 44/1 SO/BB ratio, a 1.88 ERA, and two CG in 43 innings.
Just makes you wonder if the stat keeping down there is always accurate. That’s an insane ratio.
It is well within the realm of possibilities, Scott Mitchinson in the Gulf Coast League one year struck out 60 batter and only walked 1 in 61 2/3 innings over the entire season.
He had only 3 BB in almost the same number of innings out of the pen last season. Clearly he throws some strikes, this guy. But he’s 19 going on 20. If he doesn’t move stateside this year or next spring, we’ll know what the Phils think of him.
Kyrell Hudson now has a higher batting average the Eldemire
Strangest thing is Gauntlett leads the team in OBP. He’s actually pretty high up among the league leaders. You’d think opposing teams would throw fastballs down the middle of the plate and force him to hit it somewhere or sit his butt back on the bench. Does he look like Ryan Howard when he stands in the box?
Maybe he’s just afraid to swing – The girl who plays third base on my daughter’s 10 and Under team hasn’t swung the bat in like five games (seriously, she’s afraid of swinging and missing, so she doesn’t even swing) – she either strikes out or walks.
Seriously though, either he has a good sense of the strike zone, or it’s a statistical fluke. I would think that with his speed (Morandini has compared his speed to Deion Sanders), pitchers would really be avoiding walking him. Checking his stats, he’s been consistent with drawing the walks (16 in April, 10 in May, 7 in June) which would tell me that he is pretty patient
- Jeff
That girl is smart enough to know that 10 yr old pitchers have a tendency to get wild. Her OBP will make up for her .000 batting average, especially if she can cut it with the glove.
But her SABR metrics show she’ll never improve since what happens this year statistically, will always be the case.
Reading comprehension is a good skill to have.
Eldemire is tied for the organizational lead in runs scored. Something to be said for getting on base.
Knigge and Lavin have made the FSL All-Star team as replacements
Good for those guys, nice acclaim for college guys who know how to play but are not necessarily “prospects”
I think Lakewood has a plan on how to win more games. Only play 5 innings. That eliminates the starter tiring in the 6th, relievers giving up tons of runs and throwing the ball around in the last few innings so the game gets thrown away. It also makes the starters look good. Warner had no earned runs in a complete game victory.
Anyone know what happened to Brian Pointer? Also when Gillies return expected from concussion?
We haven’t seen Pointer in the boxes in a while. I don’t think there’s any injury there, as far as I can recall. If not, he’s probably headed to Williamport. Anyone confirm?
I have nothing on Gillies. There was somethimg last week, but I don’t remember. Did he start jogging or something like that, maybe?
*something
I think there was a “about 10 more days” note on Gillies a few days ago. I’d rather see Pointer stay at Lakewood. Williamsport is sure going to have a prospect-heavy offense if he is sent down there.
Here’s a write up about Cesar from BA today http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/06/cesar-hernandez-adjusting-well-to-double-a/
Thanks, Mark.
I like Ben Badler’s evals.
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=phi
Signings
If Kyrell Hudson got on base like 35% of the time he’d probably be around 50 or 60 steals right now. No other minor league player is going to catch up to Billy Hamilton of the Reds? Who is on pace for like 150 steals in the minors, but Hudson would probably be challenging for 2nd or 3rd in SB’s in the minors.
They say you can’t teach speed. Hopefully they can teach hitting and pitch recognition.
He showed some improvement last year and I was hoping he’d continue to improve this year, but all of those Lakewood guys have taken a step back this year. I’m not going to write any of these guys off until we see them in Clearwater with better coaching – heck even Hewitt improved when he moved from Lakewood to Clearwater.
Here’s hoping Severino Gonzalez has a passport. Look at his peripherals, save for his ERA perhaps, and you’ll see some of the most dominating 43 innings you’ve ever seen. If he’s simply dominating inferior competition then the only rational move is to have him compete against better hitters. At 19, he needs to come state-side
This has happened with other VSL and DSL prospects. Look at Gabriel Arias: He had ratios of 70-9 and 67-6 but it took 4 years for him to make it over here. We clearly teach our prospects to throw strikes. Gonzalez probably deserves the chance to move up because he is dominating down there. Unfortunately the fact that he was not promoted before this season probably makes him a lesser prospect than some others on that team (especially Velis).
Andy – It’s more about his H/9 than his K:BB ratio. Arias isn’t the best example simply because he allowed nearly a hit per inning during his DSL years, a trend that continued when he came north. Severino on the other hand has allowed a meager 24 hits in 43 innings.
I think that kind of dominance warrants a closer look, though I’d be the first to admit that his early season success doesn’t necessarily mean he will succeed against better competition. Still, worth a look . . . .
Severino has the advantage of pitching against a couple lousy teams in a 4-team league though. I agree he is worth a look, but from afar we need to take all these stats with a grain of salt. He could easily be a guy throwing 86-88 with pinpoint control. Remember that the best prospects never even play in the VSL, So anyone who does not get promoted after his first year has already missed 2 opportunities to be promoted. Just trying to be realistic about his chances.
Seriously….why is Juan Morillo sfill with Reading???????
Team ERA. G IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
REA 9.72 17 16.2 19 18 18 0 28 17 .292
release him
I can’t find his minor league pitch velocity data, but fangraphs had his average fastball at 97.2 during his brief stint in the majors. They probably figure that kind of heat is worth stashing at Reading in case he magically discovers control.
As someone mentioned before you can’t teach talent or a 97.2 mph fastball. If Juan Morillo can ever command that pitch then we may have a key reliever ready to come up to Philadelphia.
It is more than just speed with him. I saw him pitch several times, he has incredible movement on his pitches. In addition, he keeps everything low. Most of walks are attributed to balls in the dirt or low. The one game I saw him pitch I was directly behind home plate, He came in and was throwing warm-up pitches 94-95 mph. Four of his eight warm-up pitches had so much movement down that the catcher could not catch them and they went straight back to the screen. You would think that if he was ever able to control his pitches he would be totally unhitable. All his FB were 98 or 99 on the Reading radar gun. He also throws a slider at 87 or 88 mph. He did walk 2 batters and was promply removed from the game since it was a 2 or 3 run lead in the 9th inning of the game. When I got home I looked up his stats and found that when pitchFx came out it was determined that he was among the pitchers with the greatest stuff on Earth by his speed and amount of movement. The reference for that site is http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/the-best-stuff-on-earth/
Morillo also had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and missed all of 2011 recovering. This is his first year back. In addition,as the Reading radio announcer stated a pitcher who can throw 100 mph with great movement will continue to get chances even though he sucks because of the outside chance he may find his control.
See this Jorge Lorenzo had 7 strikeouts in 2.2 innings in the DSL league. What’s his prospect status?
Anyone know why Dom was replaced?
He was injured running out a groundout. Hopefully, it’s not serious.
One of the Phils beat writers tweeted it was something funny is his knee, same one he hurt in may
Hewitt with 2 HRs and a walk, Collier with single, BB, and SB, now hitting 339.
Tools, guys. Never give up on the tools.
Asche with a big night at the plate. He went 5/5 with 4 singles and 1 2B.
Getting a shout out during the phils game.
If you need anymore evidence the hitting is down across the system, this puts Hewitt second only to Ruf in HRs this season
Hewitt is for real this time, I can feel it.
Austin wright was Austin wrong tonight. He’s been a bit up and down of late.
Mostly down unfortunately.
Hewitt’s OBP is still under .300. Nice to see him have a good night but… yeah.
Baby steps.
You know, the 2 HR don’t much impress me – we knew he had some power. And I still think he’s no prospect.
But credit where credit is due. Small sample size caveat – and yes, baby steps – but he has 5 BB in the past 7 games. He had 6 total for the whole season prior to that.
Another way to look at it is that his BB/K ratio has moved from laughably bad in prior years to only horrible this season. Which might sound like damning with faint praise, but that’s progress of a sort.
I agree. His OPS this year is 50 points better than his previous career high, set last year. It’s still only .734, but it’s something.
anyone know when the NYPL and GCL rosters are going to be released?
Usually they appear on the Internet the day they start playing. “meet the Cutters, I think is Saturday in Williamsport, so they will know most by then. That’s when they should know both rosters, i think they break from Mini-camp on Saturday and report to teams.