57 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 23 April 2012

  1. Cody Overbeck continues to hit and drive in runs for Lehigh Valley. Strong game for Hewitt with a double and a homer. Murphy wins it with his thirteenth RBI. Neris and Whatcott are outstanding in relief. First base is becoming a strength for the Phillies minors.
    It must have been difficult to play in Allentown in 44 degree weather and a 12 MPH wind. Of course Buffalo had the same conditions.

    1. Misch shut Buffalo down for 4 innings. Gave up a few singles but was cruising along. the opposing starter was yanked after 4 2/3 so 4 innings might have been all the pitchers could handle. Misch gave up some runs and the opposing pitchers minimized the damage. Aumont’s Canadian so they probably thought he could pitch in that kind of weather. Didn’t work out so well.

      1. Brown had a really nice over the shoulder catch at the wall last night. Overall, he looked more comfortable defensively than any time I’ve seen him in LF.

        1. Thanks for the report, pigphan. This is the stuff we can’t get from the boxscores. Keep them coming.

        2. If the Phils’ hitting woes continue and Utley and Howard continue on the slow path to recovery, I expect Brown to be promoted to the majors as soon as he puts together a solid of both hitting and fielding. If forced to guess, I would say his call up will occur sometime between late May and early July.

          Once he can field adequately, he will be just too valuable to remain in the minors. And, I know they will want to play him every day, but he’ll probably play 70 to 80 percent of the time, with Mayberry spelling him when a tough lefty is on the mound and Mayberry spelling the other outfielders on their days off and playing first base quite a bit against righties (this, of course, assumes Mayberry finds his swing again – who knows if that will happen).

          1. Mayberry better get his hitting act together or the Phillies could release him or just use him as Eric Brunlett(Version 2) for Dom Brown.

            1. Mayberry got better swings last night than he has all year. He hit a sharp line drive to LF in his first AB, doubled down the line in his second AB, and then got an IF single in his last at bat (heard it was hit hard back up the middle and deflected off the pitcher; I was asleep so second hand info on that one). Don’t want to get too excited about it since it was one game and vs a LHP, but it was the first night all season he hasn’t looked lost up there. Hoping he is run out there again tonight and he builds on it.

        3. How did Dom Brown look at the plate last night? It is a good sign that he is making improvements defensively and thanks for the report.

        4. Thanks for this. It’s only 1 catch but this could be a confidence builder for Brown. I’d just like him to be agressive in the OF. I saw him a few times in ST games and I thought he was hesitant and that made for bad decisions like taking a bad route to the ball, diving and having it get past him. Think who you CF’er is. If he can fly, then be agressive and go after every ball. He’ll have a lot more chest level catches. If you misjudge it then adjust on the fly.

  2. Saw Garner pitch in Clearwater tonight, he threw 74 pitches (36 strikes, 38 balls, 2 swing and misses). His FB was 89-91, Change-up 83-84 and Curve 74. He threw 11 curves only 4 for strikes (one was hit for a single). A scout sitting behind me said his arm slot and release point were “all over the place”, so It’s obvious he has a lot of things he needs to work on. Hewitt actually had a good night, his HR was hit to RF so he really showed his power there, then his next AB he ripped a double down the 3rd base line.

    1. Who’s this Hewitt kid? Did he just jump into our top 10? I thought he was selling swamp land in the Florida everglades and now this.

    2. I’d like to echo the thanks, gkit. Great stuff. Too bad about Garner’s delivery and command. I can understand why it is happening, though. Hopefully through more repetitions he will get it down.

    3. gkit…great stuff and thank you, any chance you can get to talk to the players before or after games and ask them a brief question or two on how they feel they are progressing?

    1. It’s probably bad (for him) that I didn’t even take a glance at his name when there’s only two boxscores to look at. My interest in seeing how well Hewitt has performed is about at the same level as Bob Stumpo at this point.

      1. Yes, the idea that Hewitt is the notable performance shows the sad state of last night’s games. To be fair, five consecutive at-bats might be his longest streak ever without a K.

  3. Time to make some pitching changes and give prospects a shot and stop pretending Kendrick,Blanton and Herndon can pitch.

    1. The Phils don’t really have a replacement for Joe Blanton. Not any prospects right now. Hyatt, May, and Pettibone are not ready. Plus big Joe is owed about 8 million. Kendrick has pitched well for the Phils over the years. I didn’t expect much last night as he hasn’t really been stretched out. I did expect better. Herndon has been ok. He is the least of the Phils worries. Yes he gave up a bomb last night but that was it in 2 2/3 innings. The only prospect I see the Phils calling up would be DeFratus. Aumont has been too wild, I think Diekman, who has been pitching great, needs more time in the minors, Schwimmer, I don’t see as an upgrade over Herndon based off what he did last year, and Hyatt, is not ready for the bigs.

      1. I’d be thrilled to have DeFratus with us right now. Kid can downright pitch. He’d make Kendrick look stupid in comparison, in my opinion. As for the rest, Diekman is about to force the FO’s hand, I think, but everyone else can take their time. I wouldn’t mind having Schwimer instead of Herndon or KK simply because he’s cost controlled and he’s better at getting a K than Kendrick (probably Herndon, too, but Kendrick is just downright terrible at getting a K). Hopefully Aumont is ready for a September call-up and Bastardo settles down.

        And I’m more or less praying that one or more of Hyatt, Pettibone, and May are ready for big league action by next year. Hyatt seems the most likely, but ideally it would be May. We just could use a cheap 5th starter. If he puts up better numbers than Joe does, great. It’d be hard to put up worse numbers than KK either way, though.

        1. The problem is that De Fratus, Diekman, and Schwim don’t start. Who becomes the 5th starter if you get rid of Blanton and Kendrick? The next options down the line are Scott Elarton and Dave Bush. There are no prospects to give a shot to right now. Not without a high probability of hindering their development at least.

          Herndon is doing better than both Stutes and Bastardo so far this season. I have no idea why you singled him out.

          Having RP depth in AAA is a great thing to have.

        2. DeFratus was just brought off the injured list yesterday and assigned to Clearwater. So where this ready for immediate call-up comes from, do not know.

  4. I think Kendrick is a good reliever but he just can’t start anymore. I would probably rather have Hyatt in the rotation and Kendrick back in the pen.

  5. Maybe it is just m?e but it seems KK fails when you need him most. Does Herndon still have options
    ?Scott Elarton?
    ?Cloyd?

  6. An Anthony Hewitt sighting! Finally, he’s starting to put it all together. Could he be the answer when Victorino leaves? Move Pence to center, Hewitt in right. Time to rebuild, folks.

    Joke!

    On a less happy note, Aumont seems to be really struggling with his command again in the early going here. Diekman is looking good, on the other hand. Tons of Ks and not a single walk in his limited AAA sample (6.2 IP). He’s given up 8 hits, but according to Fangraphs his BABIP is an ungodly .500, so he appears to have been unlucky. What’s even more encouraging, though, is that he has a 100 percent strand rate, so he’s pretty good at working with runners on base. Again, usual disclaimer about it being early, but combined with the AFL and Spring Training performance, it seems like we may have a legit late-inning weapon on our hands.

  7. KK happens to be a terrific 6th starter normally. He obviously didn’t have it last night.
    Its nice to see CWater battling for a win. Whatcott should probably be up at Reading since he’s like 27. Neris on the other hand is a guy who continues to look like a potential pen option for the future. Its interesting to me that Alonso plays so infrequently yet gets hits almost every time he plays. Its funny that Duffy, Murphy, and Ruf are all really too old for their level but are all hitting well at those levels. Do they advance all three mid season? Personally, I’d really like to see what Ruf can do in AAA and what Murphy can do at AA, levels that would challenge both of them. When Hewitt hits a bomb occassionally it makes me wonder if he’s a single plane hard swinger and every once in awhile the ball happens to be on the same plane as his bat. Let’s go Dom, we need you!

  8. Diekman is going to be the next call up from the pen. I’m 95% sure, as much as I love JDef, I think at this point in his development, Diekman has the edge.

    1. (I’m basing this on what was said/his performance during spring training, plus his first 6 IP in AAA)

    2. I think it depends on what they want from their call-up. If they want a lefty for getting lefties (because Bastardo gets injured or they deem him unable to pitch anymore), absolutely Jake comes first. But I think if, for example, Contreras goes back to the DL or Stutes gets optioned, Justin gets the nod. Why? Because then they don’t feel that they need a lefty specifically, but rather someone that they know will get outs without much risk of giving a free pass. I think they’re both on the roster by September, though.

    1. The common thought, which I agree with, is that they’re just limiting his innings. He’ll probably switch places with one of the other starters about half way through the year (i.e. one of the current starters will go to the pen, he’ll go to the rotation). I prefer that because starting in the pen, as opposed to the opposite, means he gets stretched out and has a feel for his pitches so he can put it all on display in his starts.

      1. Also, I don’t get why Larry Greene and Quinn are 3 stars, whereas Tocci and Walding are 0 stars (and Tyler Greene is not present).

        1. I think, pretty soon, Austin Wright is going to be on that list.

          As for Biddle, it’s not his present struggles that concern me, it’s the fact that people who watch him say that he throws only in the mid to high 80s. If that’s true, it’s cause for serious concern unless he is intentionally holding back in an effort to work out his mechanics.

          1. It’s been proven in a study that April and May are the months pitchers have their lowest velocity. If he’s not in the low-to-mid 90’s by July I’ll be shocked. I’ve seen this kid throw, he’s got an arm for sure. I’m glad I never had to play against him (he’s just a year younger than me, which makes it weird to call him a kid I guess, and his school was within 2 hours of mine by bus).

          1. I see, thanks for the clarification.

            I guess he likes the potential of one elite tool over multiple tools.

            1. Just becuase he didn’t have the rose colored classes on for tyler green doesn’t mean he’s irrational, one elite tool in the minors is ofter a better predictor then 2 above average tools. Because in the minors, average doesn’t make it to the majors. (IMO)

            2. The one elite tool thing for those guys is overblown, especially for Roman Quinn. He has multiple tools, just like Tyler Greene. He just happens to have the BEST speed tool, everyone concentrates on that. Pre-draft, Quinn’s hit tool seemed higher rated than Greene’s.

            3. I wasn’t criticizing, just observing. And I wasn’t thinking of Tyler when I said that. Mostly Tocci, with a little bit of Walding.

    2. Nice data, thanks. I know lots of folks swear by BABIP but I’ve never liked it because it only tells half the story. For instance, Galvis has a low BABIP. Does that mean he’s due for it to go up? I would argue that it means he constantly hits soft ground balls or weak fly balls. Someone with a high BABIP might mean that he’s hitting the ball on the screws alot, not that he’s lucky. A pitcher with low BABIP might mean that he constantly gets hitters off balance. I don’t think May is lucky with his low BABIP, I think its a function of his getting guys off balance. The line drive rate is a good stat but I’m not sure if they track that in the minors.

      1. I would say yes, he is due for it to go up. His GB% is in the lower half of the league at the moment (he’s actually wedged directly between Victorino and Longoria). His FB% is 23rd in baseball for now. However, he has no IFFB. It’s not that he’s constantly making weak contact, some of those fly balls are bound to go out (only 5% HR/FB at the moment). His LD% isn’t very good for now, but is higher than notables such as Miguel Montero (12.8% LD%, .297 BABIP), Jayson Werth (13% LD%, .400 BABIP), and Adrian Beltre (.13.2% LD%, .294 BABIP).

        Now that BABIP of his will definitely shoot up if he gets his LD% up to around 18+%, but even as stands, .239 is crazy low.

      2. The thinking is that hitters have more control of their BABIP, but pitchers generally will end up in the (I believe) .280 – .300 range if given a large enough sample size, regardless of their skill level.

      3. Murray, I know what you are saying. I think I read somewhere that BABIP is not all that meaningful in the minors as an indicator of over/underachieving. Either way, I think BABIPs that are way way out of line can tell you something. May’s does not seem so way out of line as to be a bad omen of things to come, hence I think his solid start is legit. James and Valle, however, seem way way out of line.

        I also think Pat has it right that hitters will have a BABIP that more closely matches their hitting ability and skill set, whereas pitchers tend to all normalize to the same range.

        1. Seems like the only thing we can really draw from this is that Jacob Diekmans WHIP and ERA to drop to a reasonable level when his BABIP normalizes

    3. I see Goldstein squeezed that 5th star back onto T May’s profile. When the original list came out May was 5 star, then after some comments on the BP site, they changed him to 4 stars. Now he is back to 5 star status.

  9. Can we please get Hewett up on the MLB roster now? He’s the only power we seem to have in the system. Plus, he was drafted as a 3B so he can take over for Polanco when charlie wants to give one of our random OFs a game in LF.

  10. Hewitt’s HR to right was certainly no cheapy last night…although the 25mph winds that way didn’t hurt his cause. I thought there’d be a few out that way over the last couple games with the winds really gusting out there.

    I think that Hector Neris could be climbing the prospect ladder just a tad…here’s a guy just two years removed from being overage in the DSL and all of a sudden he’s unhittable in the Florida State League. He, Whatcott, Knigge, and Bonilla all look really great out of the pen so far.

  11. Are you insane? Hewitt was drafted at 3B but couldn’t field a ball there if his life depended on it. Utley played 3rd better in the minor leagues and anyone who has followed the Phillies minor leagues long enough knows how bad Utley was at 3rd in the minors when he was coming up.

    Saw Jeremy Horst throw for the Pigs last night. That kid is just terrible he got out of it with giving up just 1 run but he was all over the place and couldn’t locate the plate at all. I don’t see him as a viable lefty option this year. Diekman, who didn’t pitch last night, seems to be the only viable lefty option to come up to the bullpen if they need to scramble for pitchers. Aumont has command issues and he reminds me of Brett Myers when things don’t go his way his mind starts racing and the game kind of gets away from him. Schwimer is Schwimer he’s not going to be much more than middle relief and until De Fratus gets to AAA in his rehab or if they put him there after his DL stint that’s the only way of knowing if he’ll be ready for MLB action.

      1. yeah… sorry. It was the most absurd overreaction I could think of so it made me giggle to post it.

  12. Harold Martinez is off the DL and back on the Lakewood Roster. Dugan placed on the DL with an ankle sprain.

    I have no idea how they are going to give reps to both him and Franco at 3rd.

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