Trevor May the lone Phillies prospect in Keith Law’s 2012 Top 100

You can check out Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects list over at ESPN (Insider only), and you should because he does a great job, and you’ll find only one Phillie in the top 100…Trevor May at #76. This is not a surprise at all, nor is the appearance of a number of former Phillies prospects. Travis D’Arnaud came in at #6, while Jon Singleton is #46, Anthony Gose is #59 and Jarred Cosart is #78. Additionally he does a top 10 for each team, and the big surprises (to me at least) are Julio Rodriguez at #8 and Perci Garner at #10.

I’m having issues embedding a link. So just use this link (again, Insider stuff) to get to the Top 100, and then the team lists are linked on the right side.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7547690/mlb-top-100-prospects-2012-mike-trout-bryce-harper-more

57 thoughts on “Trevor May the lone Phillies prospect in Keith Law’s 2012 Top 100

    1. Rodriguez is not a surprise. Klaw had Rodriguez at #10 on his list last year. And last year’s list was much stronger because the Phillies traded a number of prospects. Rodriguez also had a great year last year leading the entire minor leagues in wins with 16 and was among the leaders in the minor leagues in k/9 and fewest h/9.

      1. I don’t think he ranked in the top 10 for the Phillies because he had 16 wins. Wins are less important in the minors than in the majors when projecting talent. He has plus control which led to a high k/9 w/ not a lot of stuff in the way of velo. Most likey a 4/5 starter or releiver. AA will tell alot.

  1. I am also surprised he has Garner that high. He must have heard some glowing reviews because I consider it unlikely he saw Garner in person last year (he lives in AZ now). This gets me even more excited about Garner’s potential than I already was!

  2. Interesting on Garner. I got to see all of his starts last season, and when he was on…he was unhittable. Hoping he stays healthy and gets some innings under his belt this season because he’s a great guy too.

  3. So, we know May took the big leap last year – who will take the leap up this one? What will they do to show such a leap – Will Galvis suddenly hit 20 homers and get on base a lot? Will Gillies suddenly stay healthy and put it all together? Maybe some pitcher will add a little MPH and sink to his fastball and become unhittable…

    I love following the minors, and this site is where I do most of it. Keep it up!

  4. I don’t subscribe to the ESPN iInsider stuff but could we say that KLaw is more about potential than proximity? That would explain Garner and downplay Aumont & DeFratus. The two relievers have a far better chance of playing in the big leagues than Garner but Perci oozes potential and, at this moment, as a starter. I was a little surprised that Aumont is 1 month younger than Garner.

    1. Yes, As part of his guidelines, he includes the following:

      “When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players — usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed — as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I’ve made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.”

    2. KLaw places very little value in relievers. His rationale is that at best, relievers will get you 1 to 2 WAR each year and their performance from year to year varies so much due to injuries, over-use, etc. Not to say that some of the prospects in his top 100 won’t become relievers but most, if not all, pitchers on his list project as starters.

      1. Keith Law is exactly right in his devaluation of Relievers and his emphasis on potential over proximity. Proximity is over rated for players that have replacement level ceilings.

    3. I am amazed he sees Garner above those two. Garner is so incredibly rough and really has so little experience that I can only see a conversion to the pen in his future. DeFratus are already there and succeeding. He has a long way to go to catch up to them and is no baby at this point. Odd!!!!!

  5. I also wanted to head off the people who are going to be saying that the Phils prospects suck by saying where would they rank if we had all those guys we traded away? Top 5? But we have something better, Halladay, Pence and Lee (twice). Don’t pick nits here on Lee. We also have a bunch of guys between #10 and #35 with a lot of potential. All you need is one or two of these guys to rise onto the top 100 and suddenly you have a good minor league system… and a powerful big league club..

    1. d’Arnaud is the only guy we’ve given away so far that even hurts IMHO. And we got the best pitcher on earth in exchange.

      Leveraging prospects in this way is what big $$ teams do.

    2. You’re right, unless you live in Lakewood NJ, love minor league baseball above all else, and absolutely hate the Phils, there’s no reason to be too upset. In a couple years, if they have a bad turn of luck with a bunch of prospects, and the big club is saddled with some bad contracts and could really use some homegrown talent, (could happen), we might look back with a bit of regret, but it shouldn’t be much. All those division titles and playoff appearances should make up for a whole lot of “couldda wouldda” down the road. They won’t for lots of folks, but they should.

      1. You’re fine with it if you live in Lakewood, the Phils draft a ton of interesting talent every year. You’re unhappy about it if you live in Reading or the Leehigh Valley.

  6. We’re paying the winner’s price for our excellence the past 5 years. We’ve already tapped out the payroll and we’ve tapped out our top prospects as well to sustain big-league success.

    I’d rather be winning the NL East every year than beating my chest about our minor league being ranked top 5, which is where we’d be if we didn’t deal out our prospects.

  7. Josh (Anchorage, AK)
    Which 2 or 3 prospects do you have a gut feeling you may have ranked too low on your list? Great work, BTW.

    Klaw (1:06 PM)
    I’d start with Austin Hedges, who is in the just missed category. Could be too low on Delgado (if he’s got a better chance to start than I think), Neil Ramirez (dinged him on health), and May.

  8. Also:

    Tom (Boston)
    Hi Keith, thanks for taking our questions. I was surprised to see Perci Garner make your Phils’ top ten. Is his stuff that good?

    Klaw (1:34 PM)
    Stuff is good, athleticism is really good, and I always cut two-sport guys a little more slack on age. I will spoil tomorrow’s sleepers column just this once by saying he’s my Phillies candidate.

  9. I don’t feel like we learned anything revolutionary about the system here. I think the industry opinion on May could jump on May if he can eliminate that nagging thought that he might have to be a reliever. It was nice to see Garner and JRod high on his Phillies Top 10 meaning that they are both legitimate prospects to be excited about. No slight to Aumont or DeFratus’s upside KLaw really does not like relievers.

    The prospects that suck to see out of the system are D’Arnaud and Gose, they would be ready to slot in for Ruiz and Victorino perfectly, but I would make those trades over again every single time. The Royals with best farm system in decades last year can only dream about being what the Phillies are now. We are one of the big boys now, the farm system is down for all the right reasons (maybe we could spend more money on amateur talent, but I am not complaining).

    Flags fly forever.

    1. I learned two things – Pettibone and Garner have better upside than I thought. I don’t think he would’ve rated Pettibone #3 if all he profiled as is a back-of-the-rotation arm. Ditto on Garner, on whom we have little performance data.

      1. Pettibone will definitely pitch in the majors. This season will tell us about his ceiling, which I think is high but not a 1 or a 2 high. A #3 starter on a good team is a very good pitcher. The jury is still out though on whether he’ll be able to remain as a starter. If I had to bet, I’d bet that he stays as a starter because he’s a big strong guy who can give you innings.

        1. He throws hard enough, but without more impressive strikeout numbers he seems like a better fit for the rotation than the ‘pen. There doesn’t seem to be anything about his repertoire that suggests he can’t stick in the rotation since the scouts all seem to think his secondary stuff is more developed than Colvin or even Cosart.

          1. Comparison:

            John Garland: High A, age 19, K9 6.4, B9 2.4
            Jon Pettibone: High A, age 20, K9 6.4, B9 1.9

            I chose to check Garland, because that is the pitcher I think of when Pettibone’s K9 is mentioned. I think Jon Garland is a pitcher to shoot for as Pettibone’s ceiling and Kyle Kendrick as his floor.

    2. No one thinks about moving May to the pen. He will either develop better control and be a top starter or not develop enough control and never be more than 4A guy. His ball moves like crazy and if he learns to control it, he can be a very good big league pitcher. If not, he’ll never stick in the big leagues.

  10. Before we get all down about this, let’s not forget that we still have Domonic Brown, a consensus Top 5 prospect in all of baseball, in the system. Sure, he got enough major league at-bats to disqualify himself from these lists, but in the larger picture he’s still a very young and athletic power hitting outfielder with superstar potential. So if you broaden the discussion from “eligible prospects” to “talent residing in the minor league system” the Phillies organization starts to look a bit better. Stating the obvious, I know, but I feel like fans have kind of forgotten about Brown a bit.

    1. Dom turns 25 in September…still relatively young, but not the ‘wet-behind-the-ears’ kid we may like to think.

    2. See that picture of Dom and Pence? I didn’t realize that Dom was so strong, I wonder if that’s a more recent development.

      1. Was this decision made based on last season? Guys with just “above average” potential don’t get to be thought of as the number 1 prospect in baseball. If not “superstar” potential, he’s got at least all-star potential.

          1. Well that completely misses the point I made. We were talking about his ceiling, not his likelihood of reaching it. Of course he could flame out, but if we’re talking about ceiling based on tools, he could certainly be better than just “above average”.

      2. He has superstar potential.

        His performance last year offensively was underrated. He had a horrid June. He was getting on base like an All Star in July and was making a ton of contact. I think he could have turned his season around had we not acquired Pence and sent him to the minors.

        I think by the All Star break, Domonic will have earned his way into the starting line up.

          1. And he has the talent to play at least a passable, if not a pretty good, corner outfield spot. He may never learn, but he’s not an immovable lump with a noodle arm out there.

            1. The shift in opinion on Brown’s defense has been something to behold. We all knew he was a raw product in right to start off with. Then the team abruptly traded for Pence, told him that instead of being the RF of the future he was moving to learn in new position, in AAA. People think LF is easy to play because Pat Burrell and Manny Ramirez did it, but even the best athletes can struggle in trying to pick up the ball from an entirely different angle, taking different routes, etc. In the old days, Brown would have gone down to Lehigh Valley, taken his lumps in a low-pressure environment, and only a few scouts and fans would be any the wiser about how he was progressing. But instead, a single edited youtube clip of a particularly horrendous game ended up completely souring everyone on Brown’s defensive potential. Regardless of the legitimate discussions about what Brown’s ceiling is, whether he will ever realize his potential, and so on, I think we can all agree that a few really ugly looking plays on one bad night should not be the basis for evaluation. The minors exist so people like Brown can learn, in part BY MAKING MISTAKES. Sure, he may prove to be hopeless out there. But we know 1)he has a very strong and intermittently accurate arm; 2)he is fast and athletic so I see no reason to believe that 3)he will not be able to play a very good left field one day.

              Ok, end of rant.

            2. I don’t think the youtube video of one game is the reason people question his defensive ability. It’s more the fact that he has always played OF during his baseball career and he still can’t figure out how to effectively track or catch fly balls. Kind of a problem for an OFer. Not like it’s difficult…or a new concept to him.

              Yes, he has a strong arm, but he looks like he’s on roller skates in the field. A strong arm doesn’t do much good if you can’t get to or catch the ball.

              Combine the lack of defense with his long, looping swing and I am on the pessimistic side. Problem is that his trade value is damaged right now, so the phils have to hope he turns it around so they can either get some type of production out of him (he can’t be much worse than laynce nix, who is yet another perplexing amaro signing) or move him for a legit LFer.

        1. May 33 5 11 4 0 1 5 3 0 4 1 1 .333 .378 .545 .923
          June 79 8 13 3 0 4 8 10 0 14 1 0 .165 .258 .354 .612
          July 71 15 21 3 1 0 6 12 0 16 1 0 .296 .398 .366 .764
          Any fool can see (maybe not) progress until the trade. Only Vic and Ruiz had a better July.

            1. And, may I ask, how much of a sample size are you using to support the opposite? Perhap you could use his 2000 plus MiLB PAs .

  11. Understandable. Check on this list at the end of the ’12 season; there are quite a few guys who SHOULD display their worth in consideration of the solid ’11 draft and the climb to be expected from pre-’11 draft. From our own review during these past several weeks we can expect more than a few to step forward.

    The saving grace is that the recent drafts have yield many superior prospects now playing for other teams that have made Law’s 100 , showing the well developed and superior scouting staff. These same choosers are still doing that kind of job. So let’s watch in ’12 which could show plenty of breakouts.

  12. I had Garner in the high teens, but definately not as high as law, he’s a player who could move up to around 5 if everything breaks right. All the talent in the world.

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