2012 Reader Top 30, #12

As predicted, the voting for #11 was tightly bunched, with SS Tyler Greene emerging victorious. Austin Wright and Mitchell Walding (again) received the most write-in support, so they will enter the ballot. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS

Check below for #12

71 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #12

  1. James: Went with him hear. Can’t ignore the fact that BA had him #8, and he was talked about highly as a toolsy guy in the run up to the Rule V. Phils smartly gambled that he was too raw to take. Wouldn’t hold that against him. That said, he needs to step up this year or he’s just another guy.

    Gillies: I like him, but he shouldn’t be rated too high on this list. This is a “prove” it year for him. If he shows he can stay healthy and hit, he should/could skyrocket on the midseason list. Right now, he’s done nothing for 2 years. I won’t hold the AFL against him too much.

    Galvis: He may be the guy I’m most excited to see next year. Hopefully, his offensive production continues to grow. Still not sure he’s that great of a prospect considering his ceiling isn’t that high (as of now). Could end up trade bait.

    Savery: I like him, but it seems that he projects as a LOOGY? If so, that’s 22-30 territory. I don’t care if he was a #1 pick or not.

    Diekman: See above, minus #1 pick part. He’d be behind Savery, but not by much.

    Austin Wright: Should be getting votes here. Top 15 definitely. Wasn’t there a national writer/scout who praised him and said he could be a “fast track” prospect? He could be top 5 (Phils prospects) mid season or next season.

    Tocci: Probably ok if he gets votes, but he’s way too far away to get rated too high. Top 30 is fine. Wake me up next year on him.

    1. I’m not sure why Savery is being called a LOOGY. The Phils have not used him like that. As a reliever last year he pitched twice as many innings against righties as he did against lefties in AAA. For the short time he was in the majors, they also did not use him as a lefty specialist. I recognize it is a very small sample to work from last year, but I think perhaps people are too negative on him.

      1. LOOGY sometimes has come to stand for any lefty reliever it seems. There’s certainly a difference. Bastardo, Savery, Willis, those guys you prefer to see against lefties but they can pitch whole innings. Diekman is a LOOGY candidate, a pitcher whose sidearm motion makes him uniquely successful against lefties.

          1. Good point. I will take that under consideration! I have already moved Savery way down my list based on what people have been writing, but deep down I think he is better than the rating most commenters here are giving him.

        1. Diekman throws in the mid to upper 90′s. He needs to improve his control, but since he changed to a side-arm delivery recently, I’m hoping his control will improve with more experience and more repetitions. Savery hasn’t had great velocity since college. Diekman’s fastball puts him ahead of Savery to me.

          1. Savery’s FB averaged 91 while he was in the majors. More than adequate. I recognize that mid-90s is better.

  2. Austin Wright. Perhaps I am getting seduced by a small sample (67 IPs), but he was excellent in low A last year. He has a solid scouting report. I like that combination.

  3. Larry Greene Jr.
    He is the highest rated on my board. James probably next, then start campaign for Tocci, who I have in the top 20.

  4. Congrats T Greene. Gillies again. This could be your last dance Tyson let’s hope you can stay on the field. Injuries aside its hard to ignore his body of work before the injuries. Let me post them again 1107 PA’s .403 OBP .836 OPS .309 Avg

    Of all the position players we have in the system no one else is even close to those kinds of numbers. And for those of you voting for Savery and Schwim start looking at Bonillia’s numbers he should be next and way ahead of them both. My opnion of course!

    1. Those numbers had Gillies #2 in PP’s top 30 before 2010. This is 2012 however and he’s barely played any baseball since then.

      1. I get penalizing him for not staying on the field but High Desert means nothing to me the numbers show a guy that knows how to get on base.

        While there is a lot to like about James a .325 OBP .690 OPS .268 Avg in Low A with walk rate of 4.5% and a strikeout rate a tad over 20% doesn’t project an above average MLB player to me.

  5. I talked myself into liking Tocci yesterday. Bonilla, James, and Greene drew consideration here as well. I like Tocci’s five tool package, and similar international signings have made other team’s top 10 lists in the past. I see no reason not to place Tocci’s ceiling in the teens on our list.

  6. As far as Tocci, I note his signing bonus was about $750,000. In a case like this I’m inclined to compare that price to other prospects. Less than Larry Greene, Mitchell Walding and Roman Quinn, more than Harold Martinez. Not perfect, but I think that’s a good ballpark rating. Top 30 for certain, maybe top 20.

    1. Tocci was one of the top 20 available Latin free agents last year. He received a bonus twice the size of Santana and three times the size of Franco. A 750k signing bonus for a Latin player from the Phillies is unheard of. The Phillies haven’t started a 250k+, latin signee, in the VSL or DSL in years. Tocci may start in the GCL as a legitimate 16 year old. Guys from the US are in 10th or 11th grade at that age. All of that is significant.

      Add the fact that he out-hit some of his 20+ year old teamates in the Venezuelan winter league he played, I think he should be causing as much or more excitement as Tyler Greene.

  7. at this point, we are all projecting raw athletes we have never seen. so i am going with Larry Green…because, why not?

  8. If you want to see a different view of the Phillies top ten prospects check out Jonathan Mayo’s list at mlb.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_players
    The most interesting thing I noticed was not only did he put Cesar Hernandez #6, but he also lists him as the #3 2b prospect in all of baseball. I’m not sure if that’s praise for Cesar or a result of a very poor class of 2b prospects. The only selection I think that he’s way off on is Aaron Altherr, he really struggled last year and must show a lot more this spring to even compete for a starting job at Lakewood. I think he will have strong competition from Greene, Pointer, Hudson and Dugan(who is also at a point in his career that he has to produce or he may get released)

        1. yea, that’s interesting. It says 2011 but the blurbs talk about performance. any chance he just removed the players who no longer qualified and moved up everyone up on his list?

  9. Going with Gillies Again.

    His injuries should not be ongoing, the major hamstring issues lingered due to a misdiagnosis from the Phils Medical staff and the foot injury was a freak event.

    He has shown quite alot when healthy and I expect him to do so again.

  10. CAN WE GET SOME LOVE FOR LARRY GREENE JR HERE

    I am tired of voting him every round for the past four rounds!! I want to spread the votes around!! :P

    But seriously, I vote for this guy both for his potential, and because I feel he is massively important to this team. Howard isn’t going to last his contract in good health, and this kid is who I have my hopes riding on to replace him. With any luck he can get up to the big leagues when Howard has a year or two left and help stabilize that side of our aging infield.

    1. So you have his projection as a 1st baseman? You’ve also found a slot for him and a timeframe. I hope you’re right. In the last 2 – 3 weeks I’ve had LG, TG, Bonilla, Pointer, James and Galvis in this slot. I change my mind hourly. I see all the good and bad things written about each guy. I went with Bonilla. I’ve liked the guy since he was in Latin America. I loved that 9 inning 12 K game (or was it 14 Ks?) last year. It’s a good slot for him

      1. I change my mind hourly too. What a great thing! We have so many to chose from. Only about 43 days till Spring Training, but who’s counting? This is going to be a great year !!!

            1. I really want Mayberry Jr. at first base, and Brown in LF. They’ll platoon the stuff, but I think they should BOTH get major at bats. Mayberry Jr. was great last year, as was Brown. They both need At Bats. How will we be able to judge them if they never get to hit?

              They better not mess with Brown’s development. He needs At-Bats. He’s got plenty of potential, but you can’t get good at something you never get a chance to do. I know Spring Training will dictate all of this, but that’s the combo I want to see until Howard is healthy. And when he is healthy, well, I’ll gladly ride the hot hand. That means I’d go with a Mayberry Jr. hitting .280 over Howard.

  11. Bonilla gets my vote. People Lie #’s dont. and unlike julio rodriguez bonilla has the 91-95mph along side with 2 other pitches. should be in top 10.

  12. I would vote Greene then Wright. Not a big Jiwan James fan – at least not yet. I know he can field, but he needs to do more than that to get me interested.

  13. I went with Bonilla too. I’d love to see him fill out a little. at 6’1, 165 he kinda looks like Oil Can Boyd

  14. JJames.

    And can we please add Austin Hyatt to the mix. The man only struck out well over a batter an inning in AA, had a whip under 1.2 and will in all likelihood see innings this year. Reminds me a lot of Brandon Duckworth. He clearly gets his strikeouts with an above average off speed pitch (Hyatt’s being a change, Duckworth’s a curveball) and appears to have enough fastball to keep people honest. I always thought Duckworth was an adjustment or two from being a productive back of the rotation starter. Hyatt might be similar and hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments to keep the ball in the park more regularly.

    1. I agree with you that Hyatt will probably see the majors. But he was 25 in AA and had a FIP of 3.8. I’m not sure he’s a starter in the majors, unless it is an absolute emergency. Perhaps he can contribute out of the bullpen and his FB will tick up a notch? Either way, he’s below Wright, Bonilla, Garner, and Savery for me.

      1. I recall that some prediction was made (by BA?) when he was drafted that said Hyatt could make it to MLB as a reliever and one of the nearest to “ready.”

        Guess it hasn’t been as qickly as they thought. In the relief role he could be a middle inn guy. Deserves a look this season.

  15. Jiwan here – I think the potential is there. I think some people make him out to be super old for his leagues…not by that much. He’ll play this year as a 23 yr old in AA…old, sure, but not Rizzotti old or anything. His line in ’11 was about what it was in ’10, a level higher. Progressing up a level without losing stats is ok by me. With his speed and defense, a little more patience at the plate or a little bit more power, (there might not be much in that body, but hard to tell), and he’s suddenly very attractive. If he adds a fair amount to his OPS, (call it 75 pts to account for a little bit of help from the smaller ballpark), we’ll be really high on him this time next year.

    1. He’s old for a guy who is basically treading water in terms of performance as opposed to those illusive tools. That’s what keeps getting lost in these discussions. Aside from the power not manifesting and the speed not manifesting, at least in terms of his base running (given his CS rate, his base stealing is a net negative at this stage – he would be better off never attempting to steal a base), his BB/K ratio is almost 1 to 3.

      He is a guy who is fighting for a shot as a back up. He would have to demonstrate a highly unusual development trajectory to become a candidate for a regular role in the major leagues.

      1. Numbers were comparable to Gose before he got dealt. Did you also want Gose to stop stealing bases when he was getting caught at a 50% clip? Or what about Gose’s .325 OBP clip at Clearwater. James is a superior defender to Gose as well.

        James lost time as a pitcher. He took years off from hitting. Tools sometimes equate before the actual numbers.

        1. James is superior to Gose defensively? That’s the first I’m hearing that. Is this first hand observations?

        2. He took years off from hitting – and that’s lost development time, that he can’t get back.

          The Gose comparison IMO illustrates why James is not likely ever going to be a regular. Even setting aside the fact that his year in A+ was significantly better than James’ (if one includes his time with the Jays, as one should), he was almost 2 years younger than James was in his year in A+. And those 2 years make ALL the difference. If James was two years younger (or even one) he would be a top 5 prospect. Not, he doesn’t get a pass for the missed years. Development of minor league players does not work that way.

          Even if he did have the kind of leap forward that Gose did (and I think that is unlikely), he will not be regarded as nearly the same level of prospect, given the age difference. I do agree that such a leap would increase the chance that he becomes a regular – but he still won’t be the same prospect Gose is (and even Gose, as much as he shot up the prospects list, still has things to work on and is no sure thing.

          I’m not suggesting that, as a matter of development, he stop stealing bases. I’m suggesting that, if he doesn’t dramatically improve his rate of SB success, his speed on the base paths is unlikely to be a big asset in the majors, if he ever gets there.

          Let me be clear on something … when we are projecting minor leaguers, there is always an uncertainty band. James is still a real prospect – he does have a chance, albeit IMO a small one, to be a major league regular. He’s not Anthony Hewitt. But when ranking prospects, I think we need to look at probabilities. A normal development path will not make James a regular.

          Now, all THAT said, there are smart people who agree with you and not with me. This is NOT one one of those cases where I roll my eyes and sigh about people’s ignorance. I could be wrong, you could be right. I just don’t see it.

  16. Joe Savery has more votes than Austin Wright? You guys gotta be kidding me. I’m gonna be voting for him for the rest of the top 30, aren’t I?

    1. Why you hate’n on Savery? Do you know how hard it is to find pitchers with a ceiling of O.5 WAR?

    2. What Savery lacks in ceiling, he more than makes up for in “there’s a dozen really improbable ways you could use a relief pitcher who sorta hit A-Ball pitching last year”.

      1. That must be the thinking here.

        And I feel like I give more weight to proximity than a lot of posters here do, but even I’m not crazy enough to go with Savery in the top 20. Wright has the build, the scouting reports and even some results to back him up. And he’s a lefty. This doubly kills me because I want to vote for my boy Bonilla soon.

        1. I feel like you started this comment just to torture me! ;) I also feel like I will be voting for Wright for a while. I put him ahead of Bonilla due to the superior strikeout rate.

          However, Savery is not some chump. It has nothing to do with him being a 1st round pick nor him being able to hit. It has everything to do with him pitching very well in AAA and then getting called up to the majors and not sucking. If JDF can be #8, Savery is easily top 20.

  17. Bonilla belongs here. He should have a great year at Clearwater. I also like Cameron Rupp and Jiwan James in this 11-20 group.

    1. 1) That third slash line matters.
      2) As stated above, those two years matter. It is not as though it is all about production in the minor leagues. It’s very much about age versus production. Why? Because the younger you are, the more time you have to develop. It’s not his fault, but it still must be counted against him.

      1. It counts against him, but you can’t count it the same as you would if he were hitting those two years. That’s a lot of significant development time he lost no matter what his age is now. Especially since he still isn’t very old for the level he’s at and hasn’t performed badly.

  18. I know im going to get commented negativly but I am going savery here. I think he’s the closest to the majors which gives him an edge to me over these guys in low level ball. I know he’s LOOGY material but he faces righties the same. He used to be a starter which obviously faces all kinds of hitters. I think he could be like Bastardo of last year being used for late innings or worst case an innings-eater who can hit early in games if need be and not wastea Pinch hitter.

  19. Yet again I vote for Larry Greene, as i’ll continue to do until he wins one of these. He has off the charts power, and there’s no other Phillies prospects we can say has something like that at this point. He deserves to be a top 15 prospect for this Phillies team, as he’s our highest ceiling power hitter right now.

  20. Voted for Greene again. I like the symmetry of having Greene and Greene back to back.

  21. Meh, my list looks a lot different than how the votes have been going. I had Pointer at 7, so I will be going with him until he gets selected – probably around 15.

    1. I had him up there too, but really it’s a toss up with he and L Greene, Quinn, Walding, Tocci, and Wright. They’re a bunch of guys with a ton of promise and not much playing time. Pointer probably has the lowest upside of the bunch, but he’s kind of a sleeper type who could end up being an above average regular. Seems to do a bit of everything well, but nothing outstanding. I really think some of those other names will end up passing him, but I’m not sure who yet- so Pointer here.

  22. Finally got T green on the list so Im good. Guess ill vote Pointer. Feels like somethings there with that kid so we’ll ride with him until he gets picked.

  23. I think we’ll wind up with the correct top 20 but the 12-20 order is looking way out of line. I can’t wait to redo this thing in June.

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