41 thoughts on “Arizona Fall League Update, 12 November 2011

  1. Its really disapointing to see some of these guys failing so bad. Most of them can be a part of the big league club someday if they can get thier act together.

  2. Overbeck is doing quite well but he isn’t showing much power. If he’s still with the team I could see him as a possible september call up next year.

    I guess it’s nice that Gillies is just staying healthy but I wouldn’t be impressed with the amount of walks he has considering most of the pitchers in the AFL are meh.

  3. Overbeck–to be 26 in ’12– is doing ok at the plate…a good OBA and BA with some xtra base hits…one HR.
    Hope he’s not Mr. Ironglove at 1st base. Some time at LV and maybe he could help out at 1st base…and/or be a pinch hitter w the big club.

  4. The runs/game average of the AFL so far is 6.07. League ERA is 5.45. In that context, Cloyd’s 5.00 ERA is nothing to sneeze at, Back of envelope math here, if you neutralized that to the context of the 2011 NL you’d have about a 3.51 ERA. Consider that with Cloyd’s peripherals, and he is really performing quite well.

    1. Here;s a thought. The caliber of hitter sent to the AFL is higher than the quality of the pitchers, as the better pitchers have usually maxed out their innings in the regular season, and teams wish to rest them during the offseason. Pitchers are facing a higher caliber of hitter than they are used to, and their ERA is what it is, rationalized away, in some cases, by lack of participation. They are facing a caliber of hitter closer to the MLB level and there ain’t no gradin’ on the curve..Seems to me the stats oriented raised a stink awhile back because someone converted minor league performance to MLB performance, and now we have minor league offseason training and education exhibition setting performance equated to an MLB performance.

  5. I like Diekman a lot. I think he’s got an outside shot at winning a LOOGY role off the bat since Bastardo is a full inning guy and Savery doesn’t have a track record. His stiffest competition will be righties.

    As someone mentioned, Overbeck is doing OK. Nothing stands out about his performance, but that seems to be who he is. He’s struck me as a AAA/AAAA ceiling guy for a long time and this fall league performance has done nothing to change my mind.

    As for Gillies, was this not to be expected? This is a guy who basically has missed two seasons of baseball. Remember, he hasn’t spent much time above A ball and he never settled in to that next level. Let’s see where he’s at 600 PA from now.

    1. The OO part of the phrase you say he can become in MLB next season stands for One Out and a guy who comes in for one out and walks alot , maybe one an inning on average, I say is a longshot . If they have 12 pitchers, or maybe 11 they need more than a one out guy anyhow. They need lots of outs guys, and if a LHP can go more than one out and is effective against LH hitters he probably can get the one out in the situation if it is called for. As for Diekman, let’s see if he is added to the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft, and if so , he has a chance, but I’d think they can work on the whole command and control thing.before he is elevated.

    2. I am not saying you are wrong about Gillies but in truth this is “Gillies excuse” number what 26. I would like to see something tangible .

      1. From most reports you’re seeing excellent defense and a hitter with a good eye and decent approach. Is that not tangilble? Or are we taking the Dom Brown approach to evaluating this guy and relying on small sample sizes? You call it an excuse but in truth this is our reality with him. Making any kind of determination on this guy right now is unfair at best. Would I have liked him to tear the cover off the ball? Of course. But try to look on the bright side, he’s staying on the field so far and his baseball accumen doesn’t seem to have been affected by his long layoff. I look forward to seeing what he does this year and hope he’s over his injury problems.

        1. Gillies 2 yrs now and not much at all. He should get another year to put it together, but if next year come Sept and he hasn’t done anything then I would expect the Phils to cut him lose.

          1. Huh, I didn’t realize you were personally acquainted with Tyson Gillies! Whatever happened with the cocaine thing, the charges were dropped, and we have had no indications of any other “character” issues. It seems like he has worked pretty hard to come back from some pretty difficult and frustrating recurring injuries, so let’s cut the guy a bit of a break and not cast aspersions on his character based on one murky incident.

      2. That’s nice. We’d all like to see something tangible. A reasonable person doesn’t expect him to show that much in the AFL after missing so much time though. You can call it an excuse but it’s a pretty darn good one. Even major league players struggle for a while after missing time.
        His stock as a prospect has definitely taken a major hit because of the injuries he’s had. It is not effected by his AFL performance. The time to evaluate where he is as a prospect is next season when he’s had more time to prepare and shake the rust off.

    3. I didn’t like what I saw out of Diekman at all when I saw him in the rising stars game. No control whatsoever… almost like watching Juan Perez.

      I can see where he’s deceptive but he’s never going to pitch regularly in the big leagues if he can’t control his fastball, no matter how hard it is or how deceptive his delivery is.

  6. Wow PP you single out Diekman and he gives up a run the first day. Congratulations – you are like the Madden cover of the AFL :)

  7. Rangers 3rd base prospect Mike Olt….I like him, size and all, though he does have a big strikeout swing, but in the ‘Bank” he could be a 35/40 HR guy…wish Ruben would work some magic to get him. Have to think and have positive vibes.

    1. I wonder how Ruben would do going after a prospect instead of an older player. Would he offer less? The same? More?

        1. Nix on May. Maybe Franco and Pettibone.

          More importantly, prospect trades hardly ever happen. They are more likely to happen with guys like Golson and Mayberry, who had been around a while and were not living up to expectations. So two teams try to see what a change in scenery will do and Phils were the lucky one in that deal. Golson may yet be a 4th or 5th OF in majors, but clearly Mayberry is the the more valuable commodity with the ability to help a team win in several ways.

          Chances to land a nice 3B prospect are better if the team you’re dealing with has 2 or 3 excellent prospects at that position and need something Phils have desperately.

          1. yes…pitching is a need by everyone. Pettibone will never get it done. Either May or Biddle gets it. Olt will play in MLB in 2012.

    2. Now, this brings to mind the proposed trade on here of 2008 or so, where the proposed deal was 5 players including 2 MLB players for Matt Gamel who would immediately be installed as a starter at 3B. Meanwhile Gamel is now a !B, heavier, and now may finally get a shot in MLB at 1B once Prince Fielder departs for Greener Pastures . I believe if they wanted Olt they could have drafted him, They can always draft similar players, and I’m glad they don;t.
      Oversize College 3B who hit with power, they had that in Pat Burrell. Lots of guys like that, most of them don’t stay at 3B.

      1. Virginia Cav Ryan Zimmerman immediately comes to mind. Jon Mayo says Olt has the glove for third base. I trust his scouting evaluations more then many posters.

        1. Oh Ryan Zimmerman, what was he ? the 2nd pick in the draft? If they ever get the 2nd pick in the draft they can get a guy like him, was thinking more of guys that come up around the 30th pick in the draft, which they should be around for the next couple of years at least, But if they get up way high in the draft in a year a guy like Zimmerman came along they can get one. What you as Mayo says , is he has the glove for 3B, that doesn’t say his body type will maintain the flexibility and maneuverability for the long haul.

          1. Sox Kevin Youkilis….what, do I have to give you the whole litany of collegiate ‘big-body type’ third basemen who can play in MLB?????

            1. It is known they can play in MLB because they have already done it. You were not talking about a trade for Zimmerman or Youkilis , you talked of a trade for a prospect who was a recent draft choice. It they wanted those kind of players they could draft them. Most of them don’;t work out, and you wind up with a chunky right-throwing First Baseman. If they want players of that type they should develop HS players for that, and only take top-of-the-line College players and forget MLB draft-wannabe website Internet highly touted types.

    3. I’d imagine the Rangers would rather move him for a MLB pitcher since they’re probably going to lose Wilson.

  8. I think everyone gets tied up in the numbers a little too much in this small sample size. Mike Trout, for example, is hitting .253 and just hit his first HR. His OPS is .591 and he has 30 SO compared to 5 BBs. This from the minor league player of the year. It’s funny how some guys are tearing this pitching up, while others continue to stuggle.

    I’m encouraged to see Overbeck continue to hit, albeit not for much power, and draw walks at a decent clip. Gillies obviously is showing rust, but we’re 80ABs into his first action in a long time. I wasn’t too amped up for the pitchers they sent in the first place, so I can’t really complain there.

    1. I like the sound of this mlke olt but when are some of u going to wake up. Hamels is the number 2 on this staff and one of the top 10 pitchers in bb. He,s going nowhere nor should he ever.

      1. Agree Hamels should go no where. The deal I would try to kick the tires on would for Andre Ethier. Not sure its possible but the Kemp deal they say makes it unlikely they can also afford Ethier. I wouldn’t worry about extending him just need him for a year.

        He’s a legit 300 hitter against both left and right with a career 800+ OPS.

        1. Hey, guess what? The Dodgers aren’t giving all their players away. The first year of the Kemp deal, will likely cost them less than they would have paid in arbitration. McCourt is said to be selling the team. They will retain the good players they have in order to maintain the value of the franchise for the upcoming sale, and may even add more players. Not a fire sale.

          1. Either’s different. He wants out LA and is most likely going to bolt next year in free agency. I’m sure they’d love to have him, but I think realistically, they’re probably going to go a different route.

            I think the original Matt Kemp speculation was wishful thinking if not ignorant. There was no way the Dodgers would trade him.

  9. Tyson Gillies waiting to hear if he will play in Venezuela or another winter league now that the AFL is over.

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