Arizona Fall League Update, 30 October 2011

Here is your latest update. As a reminder, the AFL is very offense-friendly. That said, the Phillies offensive players have been disappointing, and if they were looking at Overbeck’s AFL performance to determine if he was worth a spot on the 40 man roster, the answer might be no. The AFL is a small sample, and while maybe teams shouldn’t place a big emphasis on it, many of them do. I’m less concerned about Gillies, simply because he hasn’t been healthy in like 2 years, and he’s trying to shake the rust off. Simply being on the field and playing is a big step for him, and I think its a no brainer that he will be protected. Cloyd is missing bats, but his other numbers haven’t been overwhelming. Check below the fold for the player pages

38 thoughts on “Arizona Fall League Update, 30 October 2011

    1. Poor career WHIP-approx 1.5 and BB/9-5 are contributible due to control issues. But deserves a chance to show what he has at a higher level.

  1. He still has some control problems to work out. Right now I think he might be able to step in as a J.C. Romero type guy, but ideally he’d fix his control before being called up.

    Overbeck hasn’t exactly been bad. He profiles as a AAA soldier, so the Phillies probably always planned to make their 40 man decision about him based on availability of spots rather than his performance.

    1. I think Overbeck could be more than a 4A guy although how much more isn’t clear to me. His last two years show that he has power and can hit a fastball which are traits that could carry him to the majors and he seems to be able to play a serviceable 1B. We’ll see but I don’t think his fate has already been cast.

  2. I think Gillies has played pretty well considering he’s missed most of the last two years. There’s a lot of rust he’s shaking off. I’m looking forward to a big year from this kid.

    1. Really? He did not do much at Reading before the injuries and other stuff. From what I have read he has struggled in Arizona in all aspects of his game. Seems like he is well liked by teammates but has much to proove.

      1. Tyson is drawing BBs……one observer saw him two weeks ago and said he was not driving the ball and squaring up on it…..rust I guess.

        1. Tyson has never really driven the ball. He has been more of a slap hitter when healthy. I do think he has more power potential and may be changing his approach. Hence the lower batting average.

          I agree that stats really do not matter here. He just needs to show he is healthy and then get 500+ plate appearances next year when stats will matter.

        2. The report from the Phils the other day said they were very encouraged by how he was doing and thta his outfield play had been very good. He hasn’t been a power guy in the past but this kid is strong and in bp he can put on a nice show. The timing of hitting can take a while to get back when you’ve missed 2 years and all the pitchers have pitched all season. If he stays healthy, it will be a huge success but next year will be crucual to his long term plans.

  3. Remember, just because it is a 40 man roster does not mean that the Phils will keep 40 on the roster. They might keep a few spaces open to see if anyone is cut or if there is someone interesting in Rule 5.
    I hope the Phu will do a rudown on who might be available from other orgs.

    1. Some of the spots will be filled by free agent signees such as a closer, a bench guy to replace Gload, a back up catcher and hopefully someone to play 3B.

      1. “someone to play 3B”

        That’s a pipe dream that’s been getting lots of play the last few weeks.

        1. They’ll sign someone but i can’t guarantee that we’ll be excited about him. Does Clint Barnes, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson, Kevin Kousmanoff or Willie Bloomquist excite you? Me either but one of them will likely become a Phillie assuing Cuddeyer signs elsewhere to be a starter.

  4. Overbeck seems to be more about making contact in theAFL. Interesting that Ruf has 3 HRs and 10 RBIs but Overbeck has 0 HRs and 1 RBI. I’m not saying Ruf is better than Overbeck just pointing out the disparity.

    Diekman is the only guy who is having anything resembling a decent Winter League season. Except maybe Walrond who is no longer a prospect. Les might be this year’s Vogelsong or Gordon but it will be for another team.

    I have no power and the chances of getting it back in the next week are slim and none. I’m not sure when I’ll be able to post. Maybe from work….I’m hearing a big cheer go up over that.

  5. Cloyd’s numbers look pretty solid to me considering it’s a hitter’s league. BBs low, Ks respectable, not a ton of hits. Too many fly balls/HRs, but again if it’s really a hitters league then we have to give him a bit of a break. Those last 3 appearances by themselves aren’t real good though.

    1. I agree, Cloyd still looks good even though it’s obvious his last 3 outings aren’t what we are used to seeing out of him this year. Could just be a case of dead arm. Also noticed almost all of the pitchers in the AFL with 18+ innings already have ERAs up in the 4,5 and 6 range so you can tell it’s definitely a hitter’s league. I’ll take into account too that Cloyd has doubled his innings he threw last year when they tried him out of the pen.

      On another note, Diekman is looking like he’s doing good with his control.

  6. Official elias Rankings are out….. we could get a ton of picks depending what happens.

    Type A:
    Oswalt
    Madson
    Rollins

    Type B:
    Ibanez
    Lidge

    1. Theoretically, we could get a ton of picks, but in reality, only Madson or Rollins are likely to yield picks if they are not signed and odds are decent that one or both will sign. No arbitration will be offered to Oswalt, Ibanez or Lidge – and rightfully so.

      1. I dunno, Oswalt is making noise about wanting a multi-year deal. I could see offering him arbitration and him declining.

        No way to Ibanez and Lidge though. They would accept in a heartbeat.

        1. The numebers on the multi-year deals are well under the $16mil he would likely earn in arb.
          On top of that, the arb offer will drive Oswalt’s price down due to the pick cost. He may very well accept and the Phil’s could end up owing more than $16mil due to the $2mil buyout already paid.

          The is a very minimal chance that Raul could do a hand-shake deal to turn down the arb if the phil’s offered but that is unlikely. Generally only Type B, not Type A, agree to that since Type A’s value decreases when they are offered arb.

  7. This is off topic but I think a good guy for the Phillies to sign would be David Aardsma. He just elected free agency. He had Tommy John surgery in July so he will miss a big chunk of the season but when he comes back he could be a great bullpen piece and possible closer. Since he is coming off of the injury, he shouldn’t be too expensive either and he is some what young as well. Maybe they could offer him a one year deal with an option for 2013.

    1. 100% agree. The guy was starting to put it all together before the injury. I think we can afford to save money on the bullpen by going after these low-risk, high-reward type guys. Aardsma is definately the type we are looking for.

    2. I know they have been shortening the recovery time but 18 months is a standard and the benchmark for my money . If a reasonable opt is also package well that is another thing.

    1. You’re right. I hate to lose great teachers like Mark, but I wish him well. The minor league coaches and managers have done a great job working with our players. They deserve a lot of credit for the success the Phils have had over the past few years.

      I remember in the bad old days when a player would come to the big leagues and have little idea of how to play the game. Now players arrive with a much better grasp of what is expected of them. That shows that somewhere someone has taught them well.

      I hate to lose Mark and I’m afraid we’ll lose Sandburg too, but I’m glad they are getting the opportunities to advance.

    2. I actually think this is a good thing for the Phils. There is still a reasonable chance that he becomes the next Phils manager so him getting major league coaching exp is great for him and possibly us.

  8. I read somewhere Andy Tracy will be managing in the system. Probably Williamsport and Morandini will go to Lakewood or Clearwater.

    1. Stated on the Phillies website that Andy Tracy has been signed to manage. Just hasn’t been determined where that will be yet.

  9. The Cubs are looking for a new manager, but said they want someone with ML Managing experience. I think this might rule out Sandberg.

    Hopefully Mackanin gets the Boston job and we bring him up as bench coach/manager in waiting with the Phils.

    1. Cubs have told Sandberg he is not in the running for the Cubs job but he is interviewing for the Cardinals job. I would love to see him on the bench for the big league club but I don’t think it would hurt to have him back at LHV with Galvis, Garcia, (possibly Brown), and potentially some this year’s Clearwater crew.

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