107 thoughts on “Freddy Galvis and Trevor May win the Paul Owens Award for 2011

  1. Congrats Freddy and Trevor. No complaints here. Past winners have been very useful. Not with the Phillies but in trade returns: Carrasco, Bourne, Marson, Drabek, Taylor, and Happ. Q Berry and Zagurski didn’t quite make it. Brown and Mathieson were last year’s winners and we’ll see how that comes out.

    1. Lots of players might feel robbed, but I think that is crappy to throw water on someones good fortune and hard work.

    2. I agree JRod had a much better season: same number of starts, more IP, fewer earned runs, fewer unearned runs, much lower ERA, much more wins, much fewer hits allowed, fewer walks, fewer wild pitches. May had more Ks, fewer HR, fewer HBP (but more BB+HBP, and perhaps Julio’s success comes from pitching inside.) I don’t know if it comes into play, but relative to 2010, JRod’s numbers got a little worse, May got a little better, so numbers wise, JRod’s 2011 season is less surprising. Rodriguez is also 1 year younger than May but pitching on the same team.

  2. GALVIS for Phils shortstop in 2012. J-Roll…should be offered a short term contract via arbitration, J-Roll turns it down and Phils get early draft choice. No long term contract fror an injury prone guy playing an important position…that Galvis can fill well. J-Roll’s contributions over the years have been terrific and I’ve made him one of my favorite Phillies. But it time to move on with this terrific team getting older and a long term deal for him would be poor management IMO.

    His skills have deteriorated at SS only slightly; he can still motor on the bases and is a decent hitter in the clutch. Though he can still knock some outta here, his OBA is nothing to like at .330 for a lead-off hitter. I’d prefer to see Vic at lead-off which would give everything good at the #1 spot.

    J-Roll has indicated that he’d be seeking a “long term deal” (up to 4 years) in the range of $10 million per year. Too much for too long; maybe a good deal from 2 years ago, but not from 2012 forward.

    Time to infuse new blood.

      1. This is the big issue with Freddy. If he bombs, your left with MiniMart and Valdez. No thanks.

        I would rather just overpay Rollins on a 3 year deal and see if you can deal him at the deadline in 2014 or maybe before.

        1. He’d likely hit a pretty empty .240, with few BB and little power.

          Look, I think Galvis is a real prospect. Rollins can’t play forever (and is probably in his decline phase), so at some point SOMEONE will have to replace him. Given how good Rollins has been, almost certainly his replacement won’t be as good, so saying “he won’t be as good as Rollins” isn’t a disqualifying conclusion. But no, Galvis won’t be ready next year, and they absolutely should try to re-sign Rollins. Though I’d hesitate to give him more than 3 years.

            1. Okay, I was overly harsh. The constant “get rid of Brown, start Mayberry,” nonsense is a trigger for me. But -

              (1) Rangers probably wouldn’t do it. I like Brown a lot, but (a) teams shy away from prospect-for-prospect trades, and (b) SS prospects are particularly valuable, especially given how thin the position is at the major league level. Add to that, as absurd as the overreactions on this site to “problems” with Brown are – much more perceived than real -his adjustment issues (mainly fielding) probably have hurt his trade value a little. Of course that makes it the WORST time to trade him, selling low.

              (2) Profar is at least a year away, maybe 2, so he isn’t an answer for 2012.

              (3) Mayberry … look, I like him. He’s a fine 4th OF, and if the team went with a platoon (there are reasons they probably won’t), he would be great in a platoon role. But I’m not even close to sold on him as a full time player. I hate to keep bringing up sample size, but he has only 238 PA this season. More to the point, given his career minor league platoon splits, he has only 147 PA against righties. And he does have a signficant split, if less than prior performance would lead to expect. Note also that since he has been used in a semi-platoon role, while he does have more AB against R than L, proportionately (compared to a full time player) he has more against lefties. As a full time player, that would not be true. Even if he otherwise maintained his better-than-expected 2011 performance, as a regular, with a normal proportion of AB against righties, his line would be a little worse. Still pretty good, but as I say, I don’t buy even that.

              Now, if the Phillies didn’t have any options, taking a chance on Mayberry might be a decent call. Certainly this year I’d rather have him out there than Ibanez. But they have an option – Brown. Who still is almost certainly going to be a better player than Mayberry, possibly much better.

              So … three reasons why it’s a bad idea. Let’s throw this in as a final thought: as a general rule, any speculation by a fan about a trade for a player that isn’t clearly on the market is at best a waste of time. Especially whe you’re talking about a top prospect, which are traded, but usually for a vetran player with value.

          1. To the guy who thinks the Rangers wouldn’t trade a teenager in Low A for a MLB-ready outfielder, all I have to say is, Really? Has the Philly Distortion Field around Dom Brown really gotten that thick?

            Profar’s a great prospect, but he would be starting next season in Clearwater in this organization, not Philadelphia.

        2. Reasonable projection, maybe 5 HRs, 25 2B, .280 OBP. Also, at this point, with ML experience, Valdez and Martinez are likely as good in the field. Valdez is better than a first-year Galvis at the plate. Martinez might be also, given a starting job and some close attention to his hitting. So I think Freddie needs at least another year at AAA. With those 2, or an outside acquisition, they have better options if Jimmy can’t be signed.

      2. What kind of line do you think Rollins would put up in the majors next year?
        Some on this site have crystal balls. Lets face it Galvis wasn’t even in the discussion last year. I agree with some offer Rollin a large contract for one year with a mutual option for the second. Bring Galvis in if he doesn’t sign. And trust Ruben to get a play if need be during the season. It’s not like he hasn’t done it before.

        1. A much better line than what Galvis would put up. Health is the concern with Rollins but we know he’s still better offensively than most major league shortstops.

      3. We are all freaking out about Rollins but, frankly, if Rollins left and you were able to sign or trade for a third baseman who could hit, you could easily carry Galvis at shortstop next year and just give him a little baptism by fire. It might take a year or two, but sooner or later, I think he’d hold his own at the plate and his defense would be lights out the whole way. Keeping Rollins is preferable, but there are other options if Rollins leaves. This is one of those options/approaches.

        1. If it was so easy to sign/trade for a 3B who could hit, we wouldn’t have had David Bell, Pedro Feliz, and Placido Polanco. That just goes to show how few decent 3B there are in the league. Once you have one, you don’t let it go unless you have to (damn you Scott Rolen).

    1. I don’t want to argue the details but I will – I don’t even see his skills at SS deteriorating slightly, he looks as good as ever to me.

      1. Agreed completely. Not sure where people are getting that Jimmy’s defense is anything less than it ever was.

    2. Independent of what happens with Rollins, Galvis is not going to be the SS in Philly in 2012. They’ve been patient with him this long and there is no reason to rush a guy who has had one good offensive year and make him an everyday player at 22 on a championship caliber club. They will sign a stop gap type player for a year or two if Rollins isn’t retained. I don’t think there is any debating this.

      Let Polanco play out his final year at 3B with an interim guy at SS and if Polanco isn’t cutting it they might try to acquire a big time 3B at the deadline, or wait until after 2012 if Polanco is doing well. With a big at at 3B, they can afford a 23 year old Galvis playing SS.

  3. Galvis is not ready to play shortstop in the majors. .258/.323/.331 split between AA and AAA. Liveable line if he could reproduce it in the majors. But he can not do that just yet. Galvis in the majors next year would give you a sub .300 OBP. Wilson Valdez would match that. I like Galvis but let’s not get over-excited. 2013 is more reasonable. As for next year, there’s usually a stopgap available that can play good defense and hit eighth.

    1. Actually, his split between AA and AAA for 2011 is .278/.324/.392, which is a huge improvement from his earlier years

  4. .230-7-45-OBP .290 OPS under 650. NOt good enough but with an extra year in AAA 2013=
    .250-10-55-OBP .320-OPS 700. In his prime years
    .265-12-65-OBP .330-OPS 750. With his D this is acceptable on a championship caliber team.
    This is assuming he gets close to his ceiling which I think is about:
    .275-15-70-OBP .340-OPS 775

    1. Assuming scoring doesn’t increase again, I’d say .265/.330/.420 & very good defense is more than acceptable. Heck, that’s basically Rollins this year.

      Not that I’m in the “Galvis in 2012″ camp. Though IF Rollins isn’t resigned, and if they can’t find an acceptable stop gap (the SS market is mighty thin), it might come to that. I’d certainly prefer Galvis next year to Valdez or Martinez. Though he probably wouldn’t hit much.

      1. Well if that truly transpires—JRoll moving on and the Phillies having to go with Galvis—then I can only assume that Galvis will hit out of the 8 hole to keep the offensive pressure to a minimum.

    2. My guess is that the Phils will resign rollins to a 3 yr deal that vests for a 4th year based on games played. Rollins means so much more to the team in the clubhouse than you guys acknowledge. Rollins will be able to get 5 yrs elsewhere so he’ll have to weigh winning and staying comfortable against more money elsewhere. I wonder what Werth’s advice would be. As for Galvis, he’s not ready yet but he’s certainly much farther along than most of us expected him to be at the beginning of the year. Valdez and Martinez are not in any conversation about starting shortstops on a team that wants to win a championship. There might be other guys however that could be legit stopgap players.

      1. Werth Is still trying to balance his checkbook, that’s where he is. Meanwhile for fun compare Mayberry’s stats to Werth’s and never mind the carrying cost – and consider the plate appearances !

  5. I think Galvis would put up very Wilson Valdez-esque numbers next year and would probably be better served by playing the year in AAA. But congrats to him on the best season of his career so far and the Paul Owens award. His improvement was one of the best things about this minor league season.

  6. I think that the Phillies should only consider Galvis if Jimmy runs to a West Coast team for more years and $$$.

    I’d like to see Galvis get a full season at AAA. He’s still only 21 years old. It can’t hurt him to let him develop for another season. Then, you could play him at third base once Polanco’s contract ends and let Jimmy mentor him through the rest of his contract. Then, when Jimmy retires, you move Galvis over to short stop again.

    Obviously Galvis doesn’t have the bat for the position, but he would probably have the defense and Jimmy can give you the power numbers to make up for Galvis’s lack of power (potentially). Ideally, Jimmy would move to third, but he’s earned the right to stay at short stop, and let’s face it, he’s not exactly Michael Young.

    1. Galvis’ bat a third base? With Howard becoming a more marginal player every year and with Rollins and Utley on the long slow, decline. Ugh! No way.

      1. Catch…….sure Utley and Rollins are on the slow decline….but Howard still will get 30/35HRs per yr and 110plus RBIs—for, IMO, 3/4 years. I like to think that is more then marginal.

        1. Howards triple slash line is pretty marginal considering he plays first base, and he doesn’t do that all that well.

          On Galvis, just no way he should be above AAA next year. He needs one more year to develop before he’s ready. He has consistently been promoted too early and he proved this year that he could overcome that, but we’re talking about a championship caliber team who really shouldn’t be putting project/developmental guys out there every day. Plus Jimmy’s an institution, ya gotta sign him

          May is a real fun guy to follow with all of those K’s. Much deserved by both.

          1. While I strongly agree that Galvis is not yet ready to replace Rollins, to say he has been promoted too quickly does not seem to bear fruit since he is playing very well at higher levels at age 21.
            If the Phillies win it all this year, the question will become how hungry Rollins will be to win a third or will he coast through the off season as he did before 09 and 10.

            1. Right, I agree that he had a good year this year – that’s in spite of the fact that he was promoted to every level save maybe AAA too quickly. Go back and look at all his other campaigns – he was over matched as a young kid who was placed one to two levels beyond where he should have been. Having poor results year after year like that would break most prospects. It’s a huge credit to him that he maintained belief in himself and kept growing as a player. He survived those early experiences where he was promoted too quickly and this year his skills finally developed to match the league that he was assigned to.

  7. Having this conversation without knowing what is up with Polanco is useless.
    Btw what is Polanco’s contract situation?

    1. That said Galvis’ season was huge. Considering his age and the power he showed at Reading, I have to wonder if he may be a plus bat for SS given the dearth of offense in the bigs especially from that position. Thats crazy to me considering the question haunting his prospect status the past 2 yrs was whether he would ever be able to hit enough to be a major league player. Still needs time to develop but encouraging nonetheless.

  8. Way to GO May, Galvis, you deserve the award. Great work ethic May, keep going. CU in the majors soon!! Lots of good luck to you both.

  9. Galvis definately deserves the award but the Phillies starting ss in 2012 is simply crazy talk. Let the guy back up his numbers in AAA for another season before thinking he can handle the starting job on a championship team.

    A reality check.

    The Phillies traded for a hot SS prospect back in the late 90′s who put up a .732 OPS as a 21-year old in AA-AAA ball with Seattle. The Phillies traded Mulholland to get him the next year and after a so-so season, he followed up with a .729 OPS in AAA ball at the age of 23. Desi Relaford went on to have a very long and undestinquished career as a back-up infielder.

    Galvis went from terrible minor league offensive player to an average minor league offensive player this year which is very encouraging. He needs to go from average to above average before he becomes a viable everyday player in the majors.

  10. Is this year’s Phillies team a championship caliber team? The combination of Valdez/Martinez/Orr with an ops of around .600 is currently ranked third in plate appearances on the team. While he may lose some value as a player, I might give Jimmy the five years (team option 5th year) he is looking for if I can get it at a discounted rate and he would be willing to move to third somewhere down the line, probably right after Polanco leaves.

    1. It always astounds me how people can look at the best record in baseball, two years in a row, and then take the dark view based on ‘aha, this team is weak at a position, due to injury fill-ins’ and ask seriously ‘is this a championship caliber team?’ Of course it is. It is the best team in baseball. Post-season is a crap-shoot. Phillies likely weren’t the best team when they won it all. Rockies weren’t when they nearly did.

  11. Congratulations to both Galvis and May. They definitely deserve the award. Galvis, Mayberry, Worley and Stutes are the four farmhands who took the biggest leaps forward this season. I didn’t anticipate such a dramatic improvement coming from Galvis, I’ll be the first to admit it. Truly remarkable. His future looks a lot brighter today than it did this time last year.

    Meanwhile, let’s not get ahead of ourselves and say Galvis is ready to take over SS from Jimmy Rollins in 2012. He is still young enough that he should have to force the Phillies to promote him. Handing him the job could be a disaster. What’s the rush to get rid of Rollins, anyway? In most ways this has been the Rollins Era, clearly the best 10 year stretch in Phillies history. Sure, he’s slowly declining but he’s got plenty left in the tank. Sign Jimmy and make Galvis run him off the block, as Jimmy likes to say. It won’t be as easy for Galvis to supplant Rollins as some of you seem to think.

  12. The combination of Valdez/Martinez/Orr exists due to injuries, not rational decisions by team management. The fact that Orr, Valdez, and Martinez are replaced by Utley, Rollins, and Polanco on a healthy team pretty much proves the point that that level of production is not enough.

    1. Well yeah!

      The point is that you can play .650 baseball with a regular in the lineup with an OPS of around .600. Not everyone can be a star. Baseball is reverting back to more of an 85-95 era than the 95-10 era.

      1. You’re correct that not everyone needs to be a star but it’s foolish for a team to accept sub-par production at a position when better options are available and within their means.

        IF Rollins gets some crazy offer from another team then the team will need to make a decision. But from a pure performance standpoint Rollins vs. Galvis for at least 2012 and 2013 is a no brainer in favor of Rollins. IF Rollins leaves, I suspect there are better short-term options for a season than bring up Galvis and having him hit like M-Mart for an entire season.

        It’s not fair to Galvis and not fair to the Phillies players and fans.

  13. Last year at this time, how many years away was Galvis. AHA time flies.
    Anyway congrats to both. We can argue this further in January . :)

    1. Last year he was as far away as you can get with his offensive production. He’s moved that to probably 2 years assuming continued progression

  14. Offer Jimmy 3/27 with a mutual option and 3 million buyout. Galvis is a ways off. If he repeats last years off season program it’ll be exciting to see how he performs.

  15. lets focus on the positive.. forget the rollins/galvis/2012 talk

    Galvis had a great year. He progressed and improved which is all we can hope for. he re-emerged as a top prospect in our organization. He showed power that he hadn’t shown before. Will he be a starter in 2012? who cares- great year Freddy!

  16. My 2 cents
    Congrats to Trevor and Freddy

    Freddy in AAA for 2012.

    D Brown will be fine. Sense that the Phillies may be a little down on him right now but he is still one heck of a baseball player.

  17. Before the season started, Galvis had nearly dropped off the prospect radar screen. With his 2011 performance, it now looks as though Galvis just might make it to the majors as a utility IF.

    Talk of Galvis’ replacing Rollins as the Phillies’ 2012 SS based on Galvis’ record-to-date is just one more instance of fan over-reaction.

    Rollins has been a star in the majors for a decade. He is still one of the better SSs. He has pop; he steals bases; and his glove is still solid.

    If Galvis continues to improve, someday he may be able to replace Rollins. Right now, though, he doesn’t show Rollins’ base-running ability nor Rollins’ pop. Maybe, Galvis, in the future, will match Rollins’ OBP. Or maybe not. We need to see more from Galvis offensively. Defense may be the only area where we can say confidently that Galvis can replace Rollins right now.

    Giving Rollins a three-year extension seems to me to be a no-brainer. In a couple of years, Galvis will still be very young, and we’ll have a better handle on what role, if any, he can play on the major-league club.

    1. Here is the reason it is not a no-brainer.
      The money spent on Rollins will not be spent elsewhere.
      Maybe Signing Rollins means that Cole Hamels walks.

      Simply Stating that Signing Rollins at Any Cost is a brainer over-simplifies the matter.
      I do not believe anyone thinks that Galvis 2012 will be better than Rollins 2012, but Galvis 2012 AND a 12million upgrade elsewhere could be better.

      Furthermore, Galvis 2013 may be straight-up better than Rollins 2013.
      Rollins has had serious health problems the last few years and while not missing many games until now, he very rarely runs fast down to first, presumably due to health concerns.

      I have no doubt that our Free Wheeling GM can make a move to improve our team as necessary. His ability will be even further enhanced if Rollins walks and $12mil made available to use.

      1. Rollins leads the team in SB so I believe you’re overselling the health concerns. His hustle down the 1b line has little to do with a fear of injury.

        Galvis in 2013 will not be better than Rollins in 2013. If that were the case, Rollins would have no market, making the salary argument you started with a moot point.

    1. Rollins’ OPS had been declining, going from an all time high in 2007 (MVP) of 119 to mid-80s last year—he resurrected himself this year and is over 100, then the injury. He still has life and has MLB skills.

      1. Rollins MVP season was an outlier, he had a career year. So it’s no surprise that his numbers have been in “decline” since. His production this season is more in line with his normal career numbers and put him in the upper echelon of ML Shortstops.

        Freddy Galvis would be in the bottom echelon of ML Shortstops.

  18. It is downright comical that people think that 3/27 million is a reasonable offer for a player of Jimmy Rollins’ caliber. Some of the same guys that wanted to pay 31 year old Jason Werth 5 years 75 million suddenly are fiscally responsible and won’t pay Rollins half that at a premium position.
    Rollins is consistently a top OPS hitting SS in the Majors. He is having his best season in 4 years. Furcal got 3/30 million, at 31, coming off two miserable seasons. Jimmy Rollins would be the biggest fool in the world to accept any less.
    Someone please tell me how offering Jimmy Rollins 4 years 40 million would cripple this team? Ibanez at 3/31 didn’t cripple the team. Are the Phillies going into rebuilding mode in 2012-13? I must have missed that.

  19. Oh, simply re-sign Rollins for what Philly wants. It’s all so very, very simple, you see. But, what if Rollins doesn’t sign for what Philly wants, and wants to sign for what he wants. And some other team is willing to pay Rollins what he wants. Then you got to look dollars and cents.
    Now, i figured awhile back, before the acquisition of Pence, that after the expiration of applicable contracts and such, there would be a net loss in salary committments of 39 million prior to next season. This was absolutely true and correct, and stands above the other attempts at such, which were doctored as they went along according to the reasoning ” well, I see Gload and Schneider make so much as reserve 1B, OF, PH and C respectively, so I figure we must pay at least that much to fill those positions, or we be goin’ downhill”. Forget that, no room.
    I figure they can retain Pence for 10 million which will bring the net reduction to 29 million, and then you look to Hamels, maybe Oswalt, maybe SS, maybe closer, Mayberry contract had expired so you bring him back, and maybe another OF. Hamels made 10 million in past season, so , maybe for another 5 million you can get the next season in as part of long-term deal or arbitration, maybe it takes up to 10 million in increase for long term, but for this I say another 5 miillion from the current 10 million a season gets it, that takes it to 24 million in net reduction at that point. Oswalt, if healthy, you bring him back I say , because you don’t give away a top pitcher. Since Houston paid 11 million of Oswalt’s salary this season he cost around 5 million net, original thing had paying 2 million buy-out, so you don’t pay that, and that deducts 7 million from Oswalt’s 16 million salary, so that adds 9 million to payroll, so that leaves 13 million in net reduction. At that point , team could retain Rollins or Madson , or other top closer, but not both. Madson type A free agent and Rollins type B, last time I looked. So, you offer arbitration to both, taking a chance on a small payroll increase if both accept. If both decline, you go with Galvis and Michael Martinez at SS and leading off, alternate each game until it gets crucial. You go with Contreras penciled in at closer to start next season with Bastardo ready as LH alternate closer and you also add Aumont as a RH alternate closer,add Stutes, Savery can shift between long man and a LH option and alternative pinch hitter, and I guess you have Blanton as alternate long man and RH relief, and the 7th in bullpen can be Herndon or Schwimer to start off , with others in minors as alternates on this. (Kendrick non-tendered in this scenario) If either Rollins or Madson accepts arbitration you scratch one of these scenarios. This does not deal with bringing in outside help, so if it gets down to this you pick one scenario, or you take a chance with declining Oswalt, and then you can sign Pence,Hamels Rollins, and Madson on a one year basis.

    1. In a less pedantic presentation: The Phillies can retain any three (3) of Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt and have virtually the same payroll next year.
      If it were my decision, I would only retain Hamels and Rollins and save money on the reliever, plus pick up the 2 draft picks.

      1. Well it is more poorly written than pedantic. I also think that the true conclusion (and I THINK that Marfis meant this, but it’s not clear), is that you can retain 2 for sure, maybe a 3rd depending upon the amount & structure of the contracts, as well as the results of the Pence arbitration (or contract negotiations).

        It also points up the fact that reasoning backwards from this year’s payroll is unnecessarily confusing. The easiest, clearest way to look at it is to start with next years’ payroll for players under contract, make estimates for other players who will or may be retained, as well as estimates for other roster spots, and go from there.

      1. Is this how you make predictions that no one ever sees? Put them in a big run-on sentence that no one will read.

  20. Congrats to Galvis, well deserved and obvious choice. I lauded Ruf as player of the year recently, mainly on an emotional basis. I followed him in person at Clearwater and spoke with his dad a couple times in the stands (also had an hour-long conversation with Bill Conlin, BTW; he’s really following the pharm these days, and was quite engaging, with lots of stories).

    Ruf is not the prospect Galvis is, mainly for age and positional reasons. But I justified it by the fact he likely had the best, most consistent offensive year among all rising players (disregarding mercs who are filling holes). But realistically, Galvis wins over that. He has a shot to play SS in majors if he continues his improvement. Ruff has an outside shot to be a role player in the majors, at best, and that’s a longshot, based on guys like him in the past (Zuber, several others). But I like guys who are pros, fundamentally sound, always perform, have their heads on straight, and like to give them their props. So congrats to him also; hope he gets at least a cup of coffee. Love to see him get some time in OF and vie for a Gload type role in 2-4 years.

    1. Ruf headed to Reading—hopefully he continues his success and more. Giving him a chance in the OF would be beneficial to his progression—not sure they would do that however–it is a bit crowded out there and he would be pigeon-holed for a leftfielder.
      BTW—-speaking of Chair One Bill—-does he still continue to rave about M. Franco?

      1. Did not talk about Franco. Lots of stories about the old days, playing tennis with Whitey, Schmitty, Rose, etc. He commented on Mathieson and a few other pitchers. Talked about Mathieson needing to be consistent with a breaking pitch, didn’t have to be hammer pitch, just a decent one with consistent location.

      2. I think giving him the odd start in LF, maybe a lot of instruction and shagging flies and 15-20 games over the year, would give him some versatility without taking too much away from the other guys.

  21. Can Joe Savery be our Jonny Venters? OMG…their minor stats are so similar.
    Age—almost the same progression.(25)
    WHIP–Venters-1.45 … Savery-1.5
    SO/BB- JV- 1.6 JS- 1.7
    ERA – JV- 4.11 JS- 4.08
    BB/9 – JV 4.1 JS -3.8
    SO/9 – JV -6.6 JS -6.4

    1. Hence the danger of just looking at stats. Watch Venters pitch his stuff is flat out nasty against both left and right. I don’t think anyone whould say Savery’s stuff is nasty.

      It would be nice and I’d be happy to be wrong.

      1. But DMAR……..that is what ‘SABRs’ do…….and rarely wrong from what many commenters on this thread proclaim.

        1. Yeah that list above is quite an exhaustive analysis. “SABRs” are such hacks!

          hey, you know what else… it’s not that hot today either. Global warming is such a crock!

        2. Ron, no offense, but while the “rarely wrong” part of your statement certainly is a justified charaterization with regard to certain opinions held by the statistically literate crowd (IMO with good reason), the “that is what SABRs do” comment shows very poor reading comprehension on your part. If anything, the statistically literate people around here have MORE respect for non-statistical evidence than do some of the less statistically literate, who often insist that raw stats, out of context & in small sample sizes, trump all other evidence including scouting reports (for example J-Rod. It isn’t the SABR crowd who dismisses reservations fromt the scouts). And to a certain extent that’s what your original post does, though I realize you were being sarcastic. But while you may have THOUGHT you were mocking the “SABR” people, instead you were mocking people who have an unsophisticated understanding of statistics.

          Now I will agree that the statistically literate among us are rather dismissive of one particular type of non statistical argument – the notion that certain players are gutsy, gritty guys who intagible their teams to victory. We also tend to be sceptical of “clutch” arguments (though IMO some stat guys are a little too dismissive of those arguments in certain respects). But rejecting one or two specific types of non statistical evidence is not the same as rejecting all or even most non statistical evidence.

          But to prove that yes, we can be arrogant, I’ll posit the following as indiputably true:

          (1) Certain aspects of modern statistical analyisis are so firmly grounded in logic and research that they are as indisputable as the fact that the sun rises in the east. These truths have been internalized by the baseball establishment, even teams such as the Phillies who ostensibly don’t use modern statistical analysis. (e.g., the value of BB) (Of course there are still some ignorant dinosaurs, cough Dusty Baker, cough.)

          (2) Certain other aspects of modern statistical analysis are more controversial and open to debate. (e.g., fielding metrics.)

          (3) There are also certain things that statistical analysis can’t do, or can’t do well. While statistical literacy is very helpful in evaluating prospects, I think even the biggest advocate of modern statistical analysis will concede that scouting plays a huge role in evaluating propspects, that statistical analysis can’t replace that, and that even statistical anslysis and scouting, taken together, is going to be often wrong about prospects because of factors that are either random or unknowable.

          Again, #3 doesn’t mean that statistical analysis plays no role in prospect evaluation – far from it. But it does mean that stats in that context are less predictive of future performance than they are in the major league context.

          1. LarryM……all I wanted was to believe that Joe Savery could be the our Jonny Venters!!!!
            You have to have a dream.

            1. Upon further reflection, I realized what’s wrong about all this. You want a 25 year old lights out lefty to be our version of Jonny Venters? We already have that! Antonio Bastardo!

    2. Also small matter of stuff. Venters can be nasty. Have not heard that about Savery yet. Effective at times, sure, but not nasty.

      1. DiaDerby…….understand Venters’ nasty arm….but in the minors his numbers speak un-nasty, to say the least, —remarkably similar to Savery. Once he concentrated on the ‘relief’ career, his forunes changed. I am hoping it is the same way with Joe Savery

  22. I think that this off-season will be the most crucial one yet for Amaro. He will have to deal with three major issues:

    1. Resign Rollins for several years or look to replace him with Galvis or someone else..
    2. Resign Madson or look to replace him with young pitchers and prospects.
    3. Extend Cole Hamels or risk losing him.

    These decisions could affect the team for a long time, if long-term deals are signed and the players don’t perform as hoped or if players are let go and replacements don’t pan out. Because of Rollins’ age, his deal entails the most risk.

    1. Let’s remove the uncertainty over Cole Hamels. They are going to sign him and he wants to be here. It is going to happen either in the offseason or early next season – it won’t get to the 11th hour.

      The hard decisions are Rollins, Madson and Oswalt ($16 million option). My guess is one of them, and only one of them, is not going to return. If you forced me to guess today, the one who does not stay is Oswalt. But Ruben loves his starting pitchers, so don’t be surprised if his deal is restructured and extended a year (2 years, $26 million?).

      1. You make a good point. If I were Hamels, however, I would want to go somewhere where they scored a run for me once in a while. In any event, I am not as sure as you are about the Hamels deal getting done. I hope you are right..

        Most people have assumed that Oswalt will be gone next year, but I agree with you that he may be here.

        Again, hope that you are right and only one of the four isn’t back, but my guess is that two of them will be elsewhere next year.

      2. I agree with you Catch 22. One of those players won’t return and I believe it will also be determined by what and how the team does in the post season. If – strike me down for saying this – they get beaten by another flash in the pan hot team like the Giants they will do everything to go all in for 2012 – which will mean an experienced closer and Oswalt returning for his swan song and hopefully a championship then. We cannot lose sight that this team has the 3 “best” starters in the NL and will have them for awhile – given Hamels resigning. RAJ is not going to surround them with second class citizens. The team’s revenue streams and sports brand will no longer permit that. I think as you do …that RAJ is almost more likely to add more pitching should Oswalt retire because he knows that is how you WIN.

  23. Thanks for congrag me for the third time. Would have liked to read 95 congratulations on this thread if I actually read this site.

  24. Going into the season I would never have believed that Galvis would finish with more home runs (8 – 5, not counting Galvis’ playoff HR) and a higher isolated power index than Sebastian Valle (114 to 110), but it happened. Wow! Galvis is the only one to pass Valle on my prospect list and moves to the #1 positional player prospect in my opinion. I had May as the #2 pitching prospect, behind only Worley coming into the season, and he stays there, moving up to the #1 overall prospect in the Phillies system, in my opinion Galvis is only 9 months older than Valle, but 2 levels ahead and Valle’s next step to AA is a big one. I might put a 1 pitchers, such as Biddle or Rodriguez ahead of Galvis, but that would be it.

  25. I love polanco but he needs to platoon in 2012 or be a bench player or traded. Could Jose Reyes play THird and Jimmy play short imagine that

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