Updating My Top 30 Prospects – 2 August 2011

Since I started the site, I’ve always resisted doing a re-ranking of my top 30 prospects mid-season. There are multiple reasons for this. First, when I sit down to do my offseason top 30, I look at a lot of statistics, I do a lot of thinking about which guys should go where, I try and talk to people who know more about prospects than me, and then I put everything together and come up with my best list. I start thinking about it in October, and the list eventually gets submitted in December for the Maple Street Press Phillies Annual. Its a long process, I move guys around constantly, but its a rewarding process. A number of people, people whose opinions I greatly respect, have suggested to me that I should do in-season Top 30 updates. I’ve resisted, but I think that if I do it properly, its something that can be done, and something that hopefully people here enjoy. Check below for the update

I think the thing that I need to do is just add a general disclaimer to the updates. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of our prospects, there is no advanced statistical work being done here, and this list is not likely to be my final list for the 2012 season. This list is simply a back of the envelope sketch of my thinking right now with regard to our prospects. As I’ve discussed elsewhere, prospect status is such a fluid thing, it changes by the week/month as players develop, get hurt, regress, or anything else. So its just a snapshot. Next season, I plan to update my Top 30 every month. For now, I’ll give you this update, then an update on September 1st or so, and that’s it before my finished Top 30 for 2012 is done. I’m sure you’ll disagree with me, that’s fine. This is just my thinking at this moment, and its subject to change.

Notes: Domonic Brown is no eligible. Obviously. The number in () is the player’s ranking heading in to this season

01. Trevor May, RHP, A+ (5) – In his second crack at Clearwater things have gone better. Walk rate working its way down, K rate still elite, still a big time fly ball pitcher
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP, A (7) – Made the jump to Lakewood and has bounced back after a rough April. Walks are the only red flag, but that’s to be expected. Great K rate, great HR/9 rate.
03. Sebastian Valle, C (6) – Defense continues to improve, K rate about the same as last year, walks still not there, but more power to come.
04. Brody Colvin, RHP (2) – My biggest disappointment this year. Got off on the wrong foot in ST and hasn’t really recovered. Hopefully he learns from this.
05. Domingo Santana, OF (13) – Repeating Lakewood, but better results this time. His approach is still raw, but he turns 19 in 3 days and has 36 XBH in 312 AB. K rate still his biggest red flag.
06. Zach Collier, OF (NR) – Shook off the rust in April, was great in May/June, now appears to tiring out in what is his first full season. Finally healthy, finally showing 1st round tools.
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP (16) – Walk rate is excellent, HR rate is excellent despite not being a big GB pitcher. K rate is okay. Showing a reverse platoon split, hints at better changeup
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP (10) – Struggled a bit when promoted to AAA, but hopefully getting his feet under him. 73 K and 22 BB in 59 IP this year, just 2 HR allowed, 2.09 GB to FB. Excellent.
09. Freddy Galvis, SS (NR) – I mean, I guess this is where he goes. His season has come way out of left field (or shortstop), and frankly, its an excellent sign. Still need to do more homework here.
10. Maikel Franco, 3B (NR) – Biggest breakout prospect in the system outside of Galvis. Turns 19 this month, excellent performance in the NYPL.
11. Julio Rodriguez, RHP (11) – Remains an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Tons of strikeouts, death to RHB, walks are still there, lefties have hit him, but he’s still performing.
12. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (22) – Back in the bullpen, and other than a DL speed bump, he’s been great. 58 K and 17 BB in 41 IP across 2 levels with 2 HR and a 1.73 GB to FB ratio.
13. Jiwan James, OF (18) – Walk rate up a tick, power still not showing up in games, 21 SB nice but 10 CS as well. Still, this is a step forward.
14. Michael Schwimer, RHP (23) – All he does is mow guys down. Hasn’t made it to the bigs yet because of the 40 man it would seem, but he’s knocking on the door. Big ups.
15. Tyler Greene, SS (NA) – Every year I pick one guy from the draft class to jump way up. 2 years ago it was Singleton (hit), last year it was Walter (sad), this year I guess its Greene.
16. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP (NR) – Nice breakout performance, great K/BB numbers, lefties have given him a bit of trouble, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground. Big breakout potential.
17. Harold Martinez, 3B (NA) – Showing a strong eye at the plate (24 BB) but striking out a lot and the power hasn’t fully shown itself. Not unusual for college guys in their first summer.
18. Adam Morgan, LHP (NA) – Polished college arm, good K/BB rate in small sample. Showing reverse platoon split (changeup better than we thought?) and should be a fast track guy.
19. Cameron Rupp, C (17) – Got off to a horrendous start, but has really turned up the heat finishing with a .935 OPS in July. Needs a big finish, but positive signs.
20. Brian Pointer, OF (NR) – Has more than held his own in the GCL, posting a .797 OPS (lg avg is .680) as well as racking up 15 XBH in just 115 AB. K’s are an issue, but a great debut
21. Kelly Dugan, OF (28) – Another half season for him because of injuries, but he’s come on strong of late. Next season is crucial in his development.
22. Austin Hyatt, RHP (25) – K rate is excellent, reverse platoon split guy, but he’s allowed 16 HR in 118 IP. Still probably a reliever, but maybe not quite time to pull the plug on starting
23. Carlos Rivero, 3B (NR) – I’m on board. In fact, I might be short-changing him here. I think he’s legit, and I’m excited to see what he does in AAA.
24. Matt Rizzotti, DH (24) – Not much has changed. Has performed well in AA this year, but getting older and doesn’t have a real position. Seems like an AL guy, or a pinch hitter in the NL
25. David Buchanan, RHP (NR) – Hit a rough patch in June, but bounced back nicely. Peripherals still aren’t fantastic, not sure if he sticks as a starter.
26. Kyrell Hudson, OF (NR) – Still raw, but showing signs of progress. Needs to finish strong.
27. Aaron Altherr, OF (15) – Just hasn’t gone his way this season, but he’s still young enough to turn things around. Tool set is still there, just needs to figure out how to unlock it.
28. Tyson Gillies, OF (9) – I mean, I want to believe. I really do. On raw tools, he merits being on the list, but his body appears broken. I’m really pulling for him.
29. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (12) – Its been a rough season for him, and his peripherals all went in the wrong direction. I still have hope, but its not really based on anything rational.
30a. Cody Asche, 2B (NA) – Results haven’t been great, but the transition to pro ball is tough, especially when you are changing from a corner infield spot to a middle infield spot. Like the approach
30b. Derrick Mitchell, OF (NR) – I knew there was one person I missed. Mitchell probably deserves to at least be in the back end of the Top 30. I need to investigate him more this winter before I really have a good feel for where he belongs. But I think he does belong.

I’m sure I missed people, I’m sure I have guys too high and too low. But you’ve asked for it, so you got it.

190 thoughts on “Updating My Top 30 Prospects – 2 August 2011

  1. If Tyson Gillies is one of our Top 30 Prospects we are screwed. I hope that was more wing and a prayer than actual belief.

    1. If Tyson Gillies could actually get on the field, he might be our top prospect. He’d probably at least be top 7. Alas, health seems to be missing from his skill set.

      1. If my aunt had different plumbing she’d be my uncle, but she doesn’t. And Gillies doesn’t play so its a moot point.

        1. If Collier can turn the injuries around, I have confidence that Gillies can/will. He performed out West in AA – I’m still a believer. He’s in my Top 10.

          1. No he performed out west in A ball in a hitter friendly park/ league. That was over 2 years ago. He’s not even close to the top 30.

            1. You are correct that it was High A (and not AA) – thanks for the correction.

              I still saw some good fashes of him in ST with the Phillies 2 years ago (speed, defense, some pop, great work ethic), though, so I’ll remain high on him.

              If he’s healthy (and I think it’s reasonable to expect that a kid his age will get healthy from these types of injuries), he’s a top 10 prospect in this system.

            2. We can both hope. But it doesn’t seem very likely, and including him on the list with his track record is a little bit of a stretch.

    2. gillies is NO top anything. What has he done, remember that little white bag, he should be gone why are we even looking at him…..

  2. Coincidentally, I did my top 10 list on my phillies forum earlier today. We agreed on…Valle.

    Some guys I included as ‘mentionables’ that you left off are Harold Garcia, Steve Susdorf, Leandro Castro, Derek Mitchell, and JC Ramirez. Surprised Castro wasn’t on your list, I can understand the others being left off.

    When I presented my list, I said that there wasn’t much differentiating one guy from another. Basically the rankings will be completely based on the ranker’s preferences whereas usually there’s some agreement on the top guys. How do you feel about that?

    1. I’d like to see how Mitchell finishes out the year. If he’s on his game, and can repeat his performance at AAA next season, then why not call him a 4th OF prospect and give him a spot in the 25-30 range. Just the fact that I’m talking about him repeating a performance and not a level means he’s done something right.

      1. Mitch is definitely worth a spot on your top 30; he’s got a better shot to stick in the big leagues than Rizzotti, Rivero, Susdorf or any of the other position players currently at Reading.

  3. Why not Gillies? Bastardo’s arm looked broken and done for, and he’s been awesome. He’s a young kid and he’ll bounce back.

    1. Gillies is deaf, That means hes a retard and he cant understand how to live life because he’s not all there

      1. Except for the deaf bit you just described yourself.
        Don’t you realize that the web is a worldwide thing and you do your country no justice by being such an A.H.
        Thankfully among the many Yanks I call friends, none come out of the same hole you do.

      2. Booo!!

        Somebody call the Karma police!

        The is a Grade A miserable human being in the vicinity!

  4. james, love the site and the twitter banter of yours. this list is interesting and i am in agreement on it for the most part. its interesting to see these lists midseason, but being a phillies fan mired in phoenix, az i would like to hear your take on AZ fall league candidates from the phils. i know they can send one player from below AA, do you think biddle will be that guy? i would love to see him play in person. from what i’ve read the phillies will be lumped in with the nats, giants, red sox, and angels on the scottsdale scorpions, which should make for a pretty good club.

    1. They’re unlikely to send Biddle to AZ Fall League because they won’t want to overdo the IP. He’s thrown 112.2 and will probably finish around 130ish. For a 19 year old pitching prospect, that’s probably “enough.”

      As to who they’ll send, I have no idea. I’ll guess Colvin might get a look since he’s only at 89 IP this year and threw 138 last year. Then again, given his poor preparation over the offseason, the Phillies might be more focused on getting him involved in a serious program rather than accumulating IP.

      1. for whatever reason i hadn’t even thought of his IP this year but thats a good point and you’re probably right. for the reasons you listed i doubt colvin will get the call either, perhaps May will get a look. its hard to say i suppose i was just rooting for biddle since i have only read and heard good things. either way i’m eager to see how things will shake out down here, and it should be fun to watch especially since the phils prospects will be working with some of those from the best farm systems in the game.

            1. Is there a reason you’re intentionally being a jerk and negatively commenting every time someone mentions Gillies’ name?!?

              The injuries aren’t his fault. He still has a chance to rebound. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.

              Seriously… did Gillies bang your girlfriend or something? Seems like you have a personal vendetta against him.

            2. I just think the comments geared towards him not only finally playing more than one game in a week but playing at a high level (ie Top-30 org prospect) are misguided at best. Sorry I don’t feel the same way about him as you.

  5. I would take out Rizzotti and put in Derrick Mitchell. Mitchell at least can play MLB defense. Rizzotti needs to get to an American League team as soon as he can. He has almost no future in the NL.

    1. Mitchell is one guy I probably forgot. I need to examine him more and really try and figure out what is there. But he should be there, so I’m adding him as 30b.

        1. I hope this means you are leaving.
          We can do without illiterates whose considered opinions don’t involve reasoning and analysis let alone a command of reasonable communication skills.
          “youre” is I presume “you’re” short for “you are”.
          So your post reads, in real English – “Drop dead. I hate you are site.”
          Makes a lot of sense, you cretin.

    2. Take out Rizzoiti and put in Susdorf… one’s hitting .295 with no defense and the other’s hitting .340 with very little defense.

  6. Question—if Dom Santana actually is a 2 years older then reported—does it change anything as to his propects’ status?

      1. I hope you’re right – b/c that would a huge relief. If he’s listed age, still has the potential to be a big time corner OF.

  7. I love that you put franco at 10. I got to watch him play live last friday night. He has a absolute gun at 3b. made 2 or 3 really good plays and had a clutch hit too.

    1. Ditto. James is exceeding my expectations for him this year at High A. I think numbers are better than Gose’s were, right?

    2. James always seems more pessimistic about James than I am. He seems to continuously improve, albeit in very small ways. It’s going to take injury to stop him from being a strong 4th OF candidate a few years from now and he has upside to be a decent MLB CF.

  8. Does Cesar get any kind of leeway when you consider his double jump? He has been a prospect that I’ve been excited about all season based on age, his improvement throughout the season and the fact that he jumped over low A. I was very surprised to see him so low in your rankings.

  9. Im 35 and I come to this site feeling like a child and get all excited when a new post is up. Truly appreciate when U have done here my PhuturePhillies friend.

  10. I also thought Cesar was doing pretty good. He was awful at first, but he was double-jumped. For a while now he’s been raking, stealing bases and has even exceeded last year’s homerun total.

      1. I think he gets a little pass for the double jump. Hopefully the K rate is improving as the season goes on.

  11. Love seeing a new list though it’s a bit sad to no longer see Singleton and Cosart topping it. Nonetheless, I still love the guys that are down there.

    I like Cloyd a bit better than Hyatt but that’s my opinion ONLY based off stats.

  12. What’s the story with Walter? Is he dunzo? Also, what are your thoughts on Shreve? I know he’s not getting any younger but he’s having a very nice year at Lakewood. I’m still pulling for him. I also was surprised to see Castro left off the list. Anyways, I appreciate the time you put into the list, always enjoy your work.

    1. Shreve is….a 7th inning reliever maybe? His age, his injury history and the fact that his raw stuff hasnt bounced all the way back, so I’ve downgraded him.

      Castro’s BB rate is non-existent this year, the power/speed is still sort of there, but looks like a tweener at this point.

      1. I can’t say I agree with the downgrade of Shreve. He’s really coming into his own now that he’s in the pen and is turning into a very solid long relief guy. His ERA has dropped below 3.00 and hasn’t given up an ER in 19 innings. His raw stuff is bouncing back very well, also. His velo is moving above where it was pre-TJ and he’s incorporating a really nasty cutter into his repertoire.

  13. Jiwan James has a 7% BB rate, a 22% K rate, and a .112 ISO. He has 21 SB, but at only 68%. And he’s 22.

    I’m curious what I’m missing. Its a step forward, he’s a great defender, but I don’t know, I’m still a bit cautious here. He is a fantastic tweeter though, I’ll def give him that

        1. firstinning.com will give you OPS+ and a bunch of other advanced stats for minor league players. Great site.

        2. OPS+ is a simple calculation, you take the player’s OPS divide it by the league average OPS. The league average OPS for players in the Florida State League thru August 1, 2011 was .716.

          Jiwan James has an OPS of .730, so his OPS+ is .730/.716 or 102.
          Jon Singleton has an OPS of .800, so his OPS+ is .800/.716 or 112.
          Ceasar Hernandez has an OPS of .620, so his OPS+ is .620/.716 or 87.
          Travis Mattair has an OPS of .803, so his OPS+ is .803/.716 or 112.

    1. I think you still have to give him a break for missing time since he was drafted as a pitcher. I was really not expecting much from him but he’s made good improvements while moving up a level and he’s apparently a fantastic athlete. If they can refine his baserunning through coaching then he’s a legitimate potential top of the order CF. Pretty good. Personally I would have him higher as well.

    2. I think you are missing a little on his projection. I would consider him as maybe a 21-year-old experience-wise at that level because of the lost time to pitching and injuries. He also has the frame to add some power. But maybe the most interesting projection is that he might be where the major league game is going – more defense, good speed, power less important. His walk rate has increased the past month also.

      I could see him pushing the BB rate to 10% next year with a minor increase in power (from getting stronger and moving to more of a hitter’s league and park. If he keeps hitting .280 that would clearly be a top 10 prospect. There is always a balance between projection and performance, however, in rating prospects. He is pretty hard to assess at this point.

  14. Tyler Greene will be much higher on the list this time next year.. don’t sweat the ranking. Again.. 5 Tool SS’s are very rare. He even doesn’t know how good he is or he would have waited to the deadline and gotten the most money in the draft class!

  15. I can’t really argue with your list, I could move people around a couple of spots here and there but great job. It’ll be interesting where Quinn and Larry Greene would slot in based on reports in FIL.

    The other thing I see is that there is a clear top 3 of May, Biddle, and Valle. Colvin has to be 4 on tools alone but performance keeps him down. After that we have the typical bag of tools and you could just mix a lot of them up and find things you love (JRod’s numbers) and things that you don’t like (JRod’s reported “stuff”) and you can do that for all of them.

  16. I am high on Santana…or i want to be high on Santana. His k rate is a concern, but he obviously has alot of time to develop. Are there any current major league players who had a k rate at such a young age who were able to turn it around?

  17. Hmmm. I wonder who a team would select from the Phillies if given a choice during trade talks. Number 30, Derrick Mitchell or non ranked JC Ramirez?

  18. De Fratus isn’t the 8th best prospect in the system. If he was, the 22 year old Aumont wouldn’t have been the one mentioned as a potential September call-up by Charlie Manuel. Aumont is younger, has more quality pitches, and has performed better than De Fratus this year. Aumont is the better relief prospect.

    1. I agree. I think PP is under rating Aumont. He is clearly a better prospect than defratus. Better stuff and better results. His k/9 is awesome. Aumont looks like a dominate closer to me

        1. I’m not sure how any of you can definitively conclude this. Aumont has better upside, but he also has Jorge Sosa downside. He’s also gotten more face time with Charlie thanks to being the centerpiece of the Lee trade, hence why he was probably mentioned. Both players will be called up in September more likely than not. It will depend on the 40 man.

          De Fratus still has nice upside, if less than Aumont, but the likelihood that he sticks as a 7th or 8th inning reliever is very high.

          Deciding which to pick before the other is a simple matter of preference. Personally, I ranked Aumont 10th and De Fratus 11th. I think I’d move them up a slot if I revised my list.

        2. De Fratus is nothing more than another Scott Mathieson. A one pitch pitcher, with a straight fastball. There is a reason guys like Stutes get promoted and guys like Zeid are requested in trades. They have multiple quality pitches (Fastball and Slider), not just a straight fastball. That is why Aumont is the much better prospect.

  19. Sorry to get off topic for a minute, but did anyone know the Phillies drafted Eagles WR Riley Cooper out of High School in 2006? Obviously, didn’t sign, went to Florida to play football. Interesting.

    1. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the PTBNL in the Pence deal.

      1. That won’t happen. Why would a team select a struggling player in low A that is eligible for rule 5 at the end of the year? Alvarez needs to be protected also. They’ll probably select Rupp or Bonilla if they have the choice.

  20. I tried doing my own top 30. I wouldn’t go any deeper than 20. The Phillies have many good prospects but the list is so fluid right now. Hard to assess what we really have with Tyler Greene, Cody Asche and others. The AAA relievers are advanced and pushing the top ten. Really hard to rank everyone.

    1. I had trouble after the top 4. Plenty of guys who look like major league contributors but they all seem to have similar total packages. Toolsy guys are missing baseball skills, top performers are missing stuff, etc etc.

      I don’t think there’s much point in ranking the system as it stands. Too much parity in talent.

  21. Thanks for this, James! I know it is no fun to open yourself up to nitpicking and criticism. I appreciate you giving us the forum to have this conversation.

    I seems like the Phillies rate Austin Wright higher than Adam Morgan right now, so I would have had him on the list.

    I’m surprised to see Hudson ahead of Altherr on your list. They are at the same level, they are the same age, and Altherr is having a better season. I would have Altherr higher myself.

  22. Some thoughts.

    1. Big ups for putting your neck on the line and doing a mid-season update when it’s a little out of your comfort zone. Take it from a guy that ranks high school football players, you’ll adjust and realize that the fluid build-up to the December list will keep everything more current on the site. I’m actually pumped about posting the stats each day for the next month with the new rankings starting tomorrow. Know that those of us that are hear daily support this in a big way IMO.

    2. I got the top 5 exactly right and was within 1-3 spots of almost every guy in your top 15, right up until we got to Tyler Greene. The exceptions? Collier at No.6. I had Aumont over De Fratus, but had them side by side at 9-11.

    3. Three of the top 10 were NR coming into the year and 7 of the top 18 were UR as well. That’s exciting. Names like Franco, Greene and Bonilla have really juiced up the system when they were needed.

    4. I think I like Hudson/Altherr over Dugan.

    5. Who were your next five that just missed? I’d say

    Finally, again… bravo.

  23. This list spells out the Phils drafting philosophy, take shots on guys with tools. Some pan out, some don’t. Some take longer than others. To have a guy like Franco, Galvis or Collier jump up into the top 10 on your list after not appearing last year is awesome! Guys like Gillies, Dugan, Ramirez, etc all have the tools to play ball at a higher level. They have to put it together. Not to mention a guy who looks like it won’t happen, Hewitt, who has more tools than all of them.

    James, I am interested in your thoughts on Neseth. I have been very intruiged with him since the Philly papers wrote the piece on him as a young Halladay. His performance has been pretty good and I thought he could surface on this list.

  24. An interesting thought regarding the list; While we have guys with tools that missed the list due to performance, we also have guys who have performed very well that missed too: Susdorf and Cisco to name 2 who have performed great this year and are not listed. Who is to say these guys can’t keep performing and make it in some capacity?
    This year, you see a guy like Stutes jump up out of nowhere to make a huge contribution with the big league club. I think a guy like Zeid could do the same for Houston.

  25. Nice list PP. Wise move getting Mitchell in there to avoid any hissy fits. Additional considerations for the 20-30 range; Claypool, Overbeck. Would like to see Susdorf get some consideration as well. Guy hits at every level and has some pop to boot. He’ll start at LV next season but will also turn 26 a week before opening day. Still, any consistency at LV will probably lead to his first big league appearance at some point.

    I’ll likely be in the minority here, but without a strong finish to 2010, Colvin is out of my top 10. Not necessarily an over-reaction to this season, but I also wasn’t as high as some coming in to this year. He sinking as a prospect for me, and sinking fast

  26. Glad to see Franco made the top 10. Turns out I wasn’t that dumb after all. What a difference 3 weeks makes.

    1. I have serious doubts that this is the real Bill but I’ll reply anyway.

      There’s a huge difference between ranking Franco 3rd in the system ahead of Cosart, Colvin, and May and ranking him 10th. There is just not enough information on Franco to justify a ranking like that right now.

  27. I look at Zach Collier and Jiwan James stats side and I just don’t see hardly any difference (some difference in k/bb rate, but James has shown a bit more power). James was rated as the best tools in the system by BP last year, so the 1st round pedigree isn’t so important.

    Otherwise, good list, some nitpicking here and there. For instance, I am very much not on the Rivero train, for instance, but he is #23, so who cares?

    1. I was all set to disagree with you, but you may have a point. I suspect the main reason for the difference in rankings is that James is 1 1/2 years older but only a level ahead. That may justify the difference in their ranks … OTOH, adjust for the difference in level and we’re really talking about a half year. Even for a guy like me, who puts a lot of weight on age/level, I wonder how much difference a half year (actually 5 months) makes.

      Collier has somewhat better BB data and slightly better K data – put those together and it’s the difference between a 1-3 BB/K ratio and a 1-2 ratio. The power gap is tiny (ISO .113 versus .107) and IMO not statistically significant, whereas I believe the BB/K data is statistically significant (eyeballing it; I didn’t run any statistical tests of significance). OTOH James is in a tougher league for hitters. Which is a long winded way of saying that their performances are as you said pretty similar. As much as I am inclined to put a lot of weight on the BB/K data, really given the difference in leagues I have a hard time justifying that in this case.

      I realize that some people want to give James a pass because of the conversion from pitching. Sorry, lost development time is lost development time. You want to give James credit for that, give Collier a pass on his development time lost to injury.

      But still, they are close. They’re both prospects, and they aren’t THAT far apart. But after all James is ranked just 7 slots lower.

      1. Well, on the Phillies list these days, 7 spots really doesn’t mean much, which is a bit of an indictment of the system. Really after the first two or three guys, everyone has some serious warts.

  28. Galvis’ season did surprise me, but looking back at it, should it have surprised me that a 21 year old SS repeating AA would blossom this year at the plate? They kid has played at levels above his age every year and hopefully is becoming settled now. 21 is still pretty damn young.

  29. Still no love for Mike Cisco? I know he’s injury prone, but 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA out of the pen this year, doesn’t that deserve 25-30 consideration?

  30. IMO the only thing that would be hard to argue is the Top 3. I would go May then Valle then Biddle. After that it gets tough. Would argue Aumont belongs in the top 10 over guys like Collier and Pettibone.

    Mitchell reminds me a lot of Jason Donald when we had him. If you have ever seen this kid up close he definitely looks the part.

  31. I guess I’m the only one who still thinks it’s too soon to punt Colvin out of the #1 spot based on his stuff. Young players get one mulligan with me.

    1. I’d still put Colvin ahead of Biddle and Valle, but it is hard to justify putting him ahead of May.

  32. Wondering what you’re thoughts were on Walter and Musser who also received well-above slot bonuses last year at the 11th hour to skip college and get on with their pro careers??

  33. 01. Trevor May (1)
    02. Jesse Biddle (2)
    03. Sebastian Valle (3)
    04. Domingo Santana, OF (5)
    05. Jon Pettibone, RHP (7)
    06. Freddy Galvis, SS (9)
    07. Justin De Fratus, RHP (8)
    08. Jiwan James, OF (13)
    09. Brody Colvin, RHP (4)
    10. Zach Collier, OF (6)
    11. Julio Rodriguez, RHP (11)
    12. Maikel Franco, 3B (10)
    13. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (12)
    14. Harold Martinez, 3B (17)
    15. Michael Schwimer (14)
    16. Cameron Rupp, C (19)
    17. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP (16)
    18. Tyler Greene, SS (15)
    19. Brian Pointer, OF (20)
    20. Kelly Dugan, OF (21)
    21. Adam Morgan, LHP (18)
    22. Austin Hyatt, RHP (22)
    23. Carlos Rivero, 3B (23)
    24. Derrick Mitchell, OF (30b)
    25. Aaron Altherr, OF (27)
    26. David Buchanan, RHP (25)
    27. Austin Wright LHP (NR)
    28. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (29)
    29. Kyrell Hudson, OF (26)
    30a. Matt Rizzotti, DH (24) – Hard to imagine him having a trade value or a MLB value for Phils
    30b. Tyson Gillies, OF (28) – Boxers with glass jaws rarely get to the title fight, right?
    30c. Cody Asche, 2B (30b) – Small hitting sample and a position change, hard to guage whether he’s even spending time working on his hitting, or if he’s just basking in the middle-infield glow of Mickey Morandini.
    Wright was the only guy I felt compelled to put ahead of a couple guys on PP’s list. Guys I would also consider for the back end of a top 30:
    Lino Martinez
    Cody Overbeck
    Steve Susdorf
    JC Ramirez
    What’s his name from Ball State. Oh yeah, Percival “Perci” Garner. He’s back, baby!

  34. De Fratus (Age 23) – 59.1 IP – 52 H – 2 HR – 11.1 K/9 – 3.4 BB/9 – 2.09 GO/AO
    Aumont (Age 22) – 42 IP – 34 H – 2 HR – 12.9 K/9 – 3.6 BB/9 – 1.73 GO/AO

    The big separator for me is the injury history. Aumont has had a number of issues, including one this year. De Fratus has been healthy his entire career, and is even more of a groundball machine than Aumont. Aumont may have more upside, but I’m not really sure if that’s the case. De Fratus’ fastball is 93-96 and his slider is improving. Aumont’s fastball is basically the same, 93-96, with a bit better movement, and he features a hard curveball.
    Both guys are very similar. Aumont is younger, so he gets an edge there. De Fratus gets the health edge, and when considering pitchers, I think the health aspect is really significant. They are only separated by a few spots, which I think is fair.

    1. I am curious why you left out ERA in the analysis. Huge performance gap between the two. IMO the key to being a good pitcher is how you handle jams. I think ERA is a good gauge of that. Some pitchers bare down and increase their stuff. Others get flustered and hit hard. You make a fair point on injury history, but just looking at performance, it is really not close. And it is not like Aumont has a terrible injury history

  35. For some reason I thought Pointer was an old dude and I haven’t paid him any attention all summer because of it. Of course, by old I thought he was like 23.

    Signed,
    34-year old guy

  36. Would be interesting to do a top 30 which included the guys we traded away over the last couple years just to see the relative rankings. Wonder if D’Arnaud would be #1 at this point.

  37. There are way too many new guys to get accurate reads on. Asche is a good example. His record shows him to be a superior hitter to, like Buschini; so it ‘ll be more interesting to see what he does next year. Martinez is off to, for him, a mediocre start, but he could be a monster. We haven’t seen (T.) Greene at all, but he could be a supa-star (he already seems to be in his own mind – love that confidence). Not to mention L. Greene and Quinn and whomever else they sign. (Giles of the late blooming 99 mph fb? Garvey? Shull?) And we also need to see what happens with, like, Lavin, who has already cruised out of GCL into the NYPL. This is such a cool draft class that making this list, at this point, involves a lot of guess work and conjecture. Even after ST I think you’re gonna have a hard time – but that’s a good thing, a really, really good thing.

  38. No Tyler Cloyd?

    Cloyd: H/9 = 8.2, BB/9 = 1.1, K/9 = 8.04, BAA = .238
    Halliday: H/9 = 8.0, BB/9 = 1.1, K/9 = 8.43, BAA = .238

    1. Tyler Cloyd: Hall of Famer. You heard it here first.

      (Because MiLB stats transfer one-to-one to MLB, right?)

      1. Can’t you see those numbers are identical? Halladay’s been cloned! Cloning Halladay is the new market inefficiency, after all. (Just ask Charlie Morton.)

      2. Not really looking for one.

        But I do have a real questions. How prominent were Worley and Stutes on “lists” during their respective rises through the minor leagues?

        Thanks,

          1. Actually they weren’t that high on PPs list. Neither Worley or Stutes made his top 30 before the ’10 season. Seem to recall them described as ‘organizational arms.

            1. A little research would help.

              Both Stutes and Worley were drafted in 2008. Coming into the 2009 season, Worley was ranked #11 and Stutes #17 on PP’s list. Worley had a horrible year in Reading (2/1 K/BB ratio, 17HR allowed, 4.35 FIP, 1.38 WHIP – all by far the worst numbers of his career). Stutes’s numbers were similarly bad, although not quite as bad as Worley’s. Both players were dropped out of the top 30 for the 2010 list.

              Now, let’s look at Cloyd who is essentially the same age and these two (4 months older than Worley, 8 months younger than Stutes) and realize that he was always at least one level behind with much less impressive numbers. He is putting up good numbers this year, but the two pitchers you are comparing him to are putting up good numbers in Philadelphia, while Cloyd is doing it in Reading. There is still plenty of time for him to become a useful pitcher, not at all writing him off. Just saying that he isn’t comparable to Stutes and/or Worley.

    2. It’s those .39 K/9 that really makes the difference. If he’d just been .39 higher, he’d be #1 instead of not included on the list.

      Having said that, I might consider Cloyd. He’s interesting.

      1. I’m not sure Cloyd will ever be anything more than Brian Gordon, but I still hope he gets a shot somewhere; everybody says you can’t teach 80 velocity, but I don’t think you can necessarily teach 80 command and control, either.

  39. To address a more general point. There are a lot of guys I did not include on this list that I find interesting. Guys who received big bonuses, guys who are tweeners but might be useful, guys who are struggling but still have tools. I have to cut the list off somewhere. I don’t see the value in going past 30, because even 20-30 on the list are really speculative. At some point you just have to say enough is enough. Every year guys will break out that weren’t even on the radar, and guys who you put a lot of faith in will disappoint. Its the nature of prospects.

  40. Any word yet on Larry Greene? Do we know if he is close to signing? If he does sign, where would you rank him in the current Top 30

  41. Interesting discussion, thanks PP. I think JC needs to be on that list somewhere and I still really like Harold Garcia and think he could have possibly made the big club next year in a utlity role if he had played this year. We definitely have quite a few guys like Cloyd that are very close to being prospects. Obviously, if they get larry Greene signed, he jumps into teh top 10 with all that power ability. Its impossible to be as high on Quinn. Morgado’s arm has me intrigued also and its tough to leave Walter out of top 30 even though he hasn’t played. We still have plenty of talent. However, one of the Lakewood guys on this list won’t be here after 8/31.

    1. I think Larry Greene is in the Top 20. Its easier for me to get excited when I at least have some data to go on (like Tyler Greene, for instance) but its tougher when there is zero data, which might be the case for L Greene and Quinn.

      Morgado might be a reliever, and if so, he wouldn’t be a Top 30 guy for me, unless its the back end. If he can start and be successful, that obviously changes things. JC Ramirez has really poor peripherals this year. I think a move to the pen is coming, and he does have some health concerns on his sheet now. Just a very disappointing season for him.

  42. The Phillies are big spenders in the over seas players. IF we were to look back in the years we brought in Ruiz, Galvis, etc…how do the players the Phillies signed rank against the other players from each year. Amount spent, potential, and current success? Hope I asked this the right way

    1. Wow, 26 out of Franco’s 28 rbis are with runners in scoring position. Pretty amazing stat. Almost all of his rbis come when there are runners on base! (sorry)

  43. For what it is worth—-according to Milb-Jon Mayo–Top 300 prospects (10 x 30clubs)—70 are Latin Amer. signings. With the Braves (6) and Rangers (5) the most and Baltimore and D-Backs with none apiece.

  44. I like Nesseth a lot but gotta see more K’s, especially since he’s only in SS as a college guy.

  45. Can’t argue with any of this. Not that I agree with Larrym’s critique of the Hunter Pence trade, but when you look at this list you really see the effect of all the trades over the past couple of years. The only guys on the list who look like sure-thing major leaguers at this point are the relievers. Everyone else has at least one major red flag to go along with the promise: May has had control issues and is repeating a level, Biddle has had some scary velocity reports, Valle can’t take a walk, Colvin has had fitness issues, Santana is super-raw and strikes out a ton, and Collier is just getting started again after all the injuries. It’s not until you get to De Fratus that you see a guy that you can realistically imagine in a major league uniform anytime in the near future. Not that that’s a terrible thing–I like our major league team as it is for the moment–but it means this list is pretty wide open for a lot of movement based on what happens in the last month or so of the season. I think we’re going to have a lot of spirited arguments when it comes time to rank the Top 30 again.

  46. PP –
    In putting together this list, what use did you make of the metrics you’ve unveiled over the past two years, compared to scouting reports and standard metrics? To what extent did you consider age at level?

    1. Thats the thing, I didn’t really use any metrics. I glanced at raw stats, did the age adjustments in my head, and came up with 30 names, hence the disclaimer. This is more instinctual at this point, just kind of my gut feel for the list, and its certainly subject to change.

  47. #22 on your list is looking to move up to AAA. Hyatt with 12ks tonight and he has 41ks in last 30 innings and only 5 ER during that time. More important 1 HR during that time. If he can stay away from long ball he might be that emergency starter for the Phils in 2012.

  48. 1) Valle
    2) May
    3) Pettibone
    4) Biddle
    5) Santana
    6) Bonilla
    7) Galvis
    8) Aumont
    9) Franco
    10) Rodriguez

  49. Couple comments:

    -I can’t see Collier over James. Both are praised for their tools. James is better defensively. Collier is younger but James is still age appropriate for his league, so I can’t see docking him for that.

    -Cesar Hernandez. Two years ago Vance Worley struggled after a double jump, I kept faith and kept him in my top 30. If you adjust Hernandez’s numbers for league context, how does he compare to Harold Martinez? Both are 21 years old. I’m keeping Hernandez in my own top 20 at this point.

    -Ditto Altherr. Not docking a tools guy for underperformance just yet. He’s still 20.

    -I can’t see Derrick Mitchell in the top 30. A .316 OBP as a 24 year old in AA? Pass.

    1. Yeah, not sure if I’m on the Mitchell bandwagon yet either. Nice story, but an overage player in AA nonetheless.

    2. Exactly right on Derrick Mitchell. Also agree on your assessments on the other names you mentioned. Knocking down Cesar Hernandez that far after a double jump, doesn’t make sense. He struggled mightily the first 2 months after the promotion, then held his own. Besides, he is still younger than the college guys still in Williamsport.

  50. I’ll say this about Mitchell as he has a few things against him and you raise a good point about his OBP career wise its sits right about .300. The kid is a big strong athletic kid with gap power and decent speed. He can play all 3 OF positions very well (not as good as Mayberry) but well enough.

    So while you might not see him in the Top 30 it wouldn’t surprise me to see him break through in the next few years.

    1. I agree this is the type of kid that’s going to prove a lot of us wrong , he has done nothing but get better in the last three years and yes he’s big and strong every year his hit more home runs and is a very good out fielder with decent speed. Yes i’m a Derrick Mitchell fan and will all see .

    2. I find it interesting that so many can rationalize prospect status for Derrick Mitchell, while so many of the same are of the opinion that Anthony Hewitt is totally hopeless. Personally, I don’t think much of either.
      One guy is 24 years old in AA, has repeated 2 different levels, strikes out too much and has a poor OBP. But he is has some power and has some speed.
      The other guy is 22 years old in A ball, has repeated 1 level, strikes out too much and has a horrendous OBP. But he has some big time power and speed.
      From my perspective, I find it interesting that Derrick Mitchell has so many boosters, many of the same who disregard Hewitt and before that, disregarded Mayberry who had similar faults as Mitchell.

      1. Perhaps because Hewitt was a number one precious pick and D Mitch a 23rd rounder.
        The ‘underdog’ theory may come into affect. I pull for the ‘dog’ most times.

      2. You are right–all three are athletic enough to adjust as they gain experience. Many times it becomes some appropriate coaching. Talent makes them all interesting to me. I am very happy to see Mayberry perform so well as he does drip talent.
        As many here say, it is fun when the light goes on! Mayberry just puts together far better at bats now then he did in the minors. Sarge commented on some of Mayberry adjustments last evening that he feels are helping. He looks a little funky in his stance but is performing better.
        Mitchell and Hewitt have both improved–can they continue to do so? Only time will tell which makes attending games so much fun.

      3. Hewitt is playing two levels below Mitchell. He has never had a good season and failed out of the defensive position he was signed for. He is now a corner OF and indifferent defender. He’s got an OPS of .698 and still Ks once every 3 AB. Mitchell has a .763 OPS, doesn’t strike out quite as much, and is a better defender. There’s no strong reason to assume that Hewitt won’t match Mitchell’s Reading numbers two seasons from now, but that is two years in which he may fall by the wayside or get Rule 5ed.

    3. I agree with that about Mitchell, He’s just a true all around Good Athlete, and what about Defense , Ive see him make more great catches then most outfielders he’s faster than he looks. what a great looking out fielder who can play all 3 spots and even infield.

    4. I agree and he’s only going to get better, Ive watched him play a lot he’s very athletic and was a infielder his whole life great fielder had shoulder problems, good now and he’s going to make a lot of people eat there words….. He can play all 3 outfield spots, he has proven that already.

  51. How do you put players on a prospect list when they haven’t played in too years and they were cought with drugs , this blows my mind, there’s two many athletes that would give there right nut to play and you guys talk about miss fits . Wish I under stood where
    your coming from..

    1. Before you rip on his list. Make sure you check your spelling and your grammar. It might help the argument.

  52. Anon, you are an effing retard. Don’t disrespect this site with that inane post. Go back to your cave you animal.

  53. Good list..thank you for putting this together. I like the Reading team and am personally high on Susdorf and Cloyd. Susdorf doesn’t bring a lot, but he can hit. Cloyd is putting together an incredible season. Very high K/BB ratio, ERA in the 2.9 range, excellent command pitcher. If he just had some offense on the days he pitches, he would be up there in wins too.

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