Two Phillies in Keith Law’s updated Top 50 prospects

Its an insider piece outside of the first few.

Cosart is 17th (34th pre season) KLaw notes his impressive fastball/curveball, but that his delivery is still messy.
Singleton is 24th (27th pre season) His patience is again praised, as is the fact that he is still extremely young for his league.

Trevor May received an honorable mention.

40 thoughts on “Two Phillies in Keith Law’s updated Top 50 prospects

  1. Very encouraging report. Singleton has taken some flak on this site, but Law has promoted him. Cosart has also made huge strides. Perhaps in a couple of years they can be in the top ten. For me, guys like this are untradeable due to the age of the ML team. The Phils showed that they understand the importance of a farm system when they traded Lee for prospects. They don’t like to give up these prospects in major trades. The fact is that the media is always going to go into a frenzy during the trade deadline because people are entertained by trade speculation. There is not necessarily any basis in fact in what they are saying. It also needs to be rememebered that 1) the Phillies are in debt 2) they are very close to having to pay the luxury tax 3) they have three internal situations involving expiring contracts (Madson, Rollins, Hamels). I don’t want to trigger a ML discussion- what I’m saying is that a blockbuster involving our best prospects for a money player this year is not a good idea.

  2. I really think cosart is untouchable. he imo is halladays hopefully replacement, when halladay decide to retire.singleton i think is pretty close to the same thing, but i believe everyone else is game in a trade. wish i can see more of cosart pitch,

    1. For lots of reasons, I still think Cosart could end up as a closer. that would diminish his value quite a bit.

      1. Murray, I generally agree with what you’re saying. I think the one caveat I would make is what if as a reliever he is like Madson/Lidge/Bard (big FB, good 2nd pitch) but as a starter he can only be a #4 starter like Joe Blanton? Those relievers have a WAR in the range of 1.3-2 per year (when they are healthy). Blanton has a range of WAR from 2-3.3 (excluding outlier year of 5.6). There’s not that big a difference between a shutdown reliever and a #4 starter.

        I recognize that Cosart has better stuff than Blanton. I hope they give him every chance to start as starters are more valuable than relievers. But it sounds like he could be very valuable out of the pen too.

  3. Amazing to think we got Cosart in the 38th and Singleton in the 8th. I wonder what Law’s opinion of Valle would be if he had a league average BB rate.

    1. Dont know, but he moved D’Arnaud from outside his top 100 way up to 20. Surprised he didnt have Gose in the top 50 though. Also surprising that he has Vizcaino ahead of Teheran for the Bravos now.

      1. Here’s what he says about Gose. I’m surprised by this response: “Gose wasn’t close. As with all of these lists I discuss them with sources before posting, and no one thought Gose belonged”

        1. Here is some more from him:

          K_Law
          Great park for LH hitters, especially for power. Hitting .224/.316/.342 on the road. Plus defender, good athlete, lot of ability overall, and he’s very young, but he’s got a ways to go.

      2. I’m not surprised. I wasn’t impressed with Teheran’s stuff when he pitched against the Phillies. Vizcaino has more movement.

    2. I have been surprised to see so few comments on him following the Futures Game. I thought Valle had a good game. Perhaps he looked bad in BP? Has anyone else seen reports on Valle following the Futures Game?

      1. I didn’t want to make anything of it at the time, because who cares about one at bat, but can we all agree that he hit an off-balance double on a pitch at mid-shin? Can we not further agree that the single greatest concern we have from a statistical standpoint is that his walk rate is unsustainably low, and that seeing him swinging at a ball at his mid-shin (even if he barrelled it up) should reinforce our concerns if only slightly, a little, teeny bit (one at bat, stupid I know, but that’s what we’re talking about here)?

        I cheer (as much as I cheer any minor league outcome, which is virtually not at all) that he doubled in a run and took an extra base on an overthrow. If he did it on a strike, it would have been better.

        1. To be fair, he didn’t swing at two pitches that were slightly lower, including the pitch right before the double, which I’ve seen plenty of major leaguers swing at.

          His walk rate is still an issue. But he’s made a number of positive strides this year.

    3. Yes, amazing to get Cosart in Round 38, but it should be noted he was paid at least $500K. Less than Colvin, but close to what Trevor May got ($550,000). Cosart got in effect 2nd / 3rd round money (depending on slot / overslot).

  4. Its good to see that Singleton hasn’t dropped any in the national viewpoint. However, I’m actually surprised that may didn’t crack the list. he’s been dominant in so many starts this year, his control is the only thing preventng him form being our #1 prospect. His batting average against is rediculously low.

    1. May has gotten a lot of coverage this year. People are noticing and giving him a look. The fact that he’s not a fast riser on lists such as Keith Law’s suggests to me that there is still reason for skepticism that is mainly observed first hand. Hopefully he develops more consistency (his improvement over last year has been dramatic) and he continues to have good results this year and next year in AA. I think if he shows this kind of dominance in AA, he will start to shoot up these lists.

  5. As good as Cosart is the Phils would have to add more to get Pence. Rough night for him last night.

    Anyone know Madson’s velo last night?

    1. That’s something that should be discussed in the Phils major league thread no here. I don’t feel like sifting through another 50 MLB responses

  6. Is there any ranking of prospect evaluators? For example, does Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or Keith Law have a better proven track record? I’m curious to who people trust the most. I feel like Law is so damn negative that you want to trust his rankings more.

    1. I bet there is enough data out there at this point (something along the lines of cumulative prospect ranking versus career WARP) that this could be done with some credibility.

      Sounds like a lot of work though. Like, hours and hours sitting in front of an excel spreadsheet. copy and pasting. sorting data.

      and various pay-site memberships…

      ouch.

      any volunteers?

      1. FWIW, from a pure fantasy baseball standpoint, I find John Sickels of minorleagueball.com better than BA, BP or Keith Law. They all have their own reasons for pushing certain players (BA is all about tools and athletic ability over polish, which are why their top 100 lists have a lot more busts than the others).

        Sickels also doesn’t charge to use his site, which is one of the reasons I’m a dedicated fan of that site.

  7. Worth noting zero red sox in top 40 and only 1 on top 50. Can the whiners about spending please take notice and pipe down.

    1. I am not arguing with your main point but Kelley at #29 and Rizzo (not listed cause he is in the majors) were part of that agon trade.

  8. Interesting that both of these guys moved *up*, given that both of them are having pretty disappointing seasons relative to everyone’s expectations. I guess the scouting reports are still positive! (and some guys ahead of them in the rankings must have been called up)

  9. For Mike Adams RP SanDiego

    On the other hand, Tom Krasovic reports that the Phillies are willing to trade first base/left field prospect Jonathan Singleton for Adams, but that might not be enough for San Diego. Singleton was ranked #24 on Keith Law’s top 50 prospects list, but #41 on Baseball America’s list. He failed to crack Kevin Goldstein’s top 50 at Baseball Prospectus.

    The prospect gurus are pretty far apart on Singleton, making it tough to identify the lower bound on the expected return for Adams.

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