Futures Game Wrap: Thoughts on Cosart/Valle

The Futures Game is a lot of fun. You’re seeing 50 prospects, and though not all of them are future all stars, most of them will make it to the majors. This game isn’t the best data point to try and evaluate someone’s future career, but its fun nonetheless. Some quick thoughts.

Sebastian Valle: Came in to pinch hit and had himself a heck of an AB, laying off a tough 1-2 pitch before lining a double down the left field line and taking 3rd on the wild overthrow from Bryce Harper. In his 2nd AB he faced Jacob Turner, one of the best RHP in the minors. He showed a quick bat, roping a hard fastball just foul and working a deep count before flying out to right centerfield. Defensively, Valle looked just fine, presenting a quiet target, framing high velocity fastballs perfectly, and blocking everything in the dirt. 3 years ago, we were wondering if Valle would have the capability to stick behind the plate defensively, and now his defense appears to be almost completely caught up to his offensive potential. Very positive developments.

Jarred Cosart: Cosart started the 8th inning and blitzed the three hitters he faced. As I noted in the liveblog, the TV gun was 2mph fast, so his 99s were 97s, but that will certainly play. He flashed a big hammer curveball to record a strikeout, and then finished off the last hitter he faced with an 83 mph changeup with solid late fade. He still has a somewhat complex delivery with moving parts, but it did not appear to hamper his command at all. With the USA holding on, Cosart is the winning pitcher.

Pretty solid night for the Phillies farm system.

69 thoughts on “Futures Game Wrap: Thoughts on Cosart/Valle

  1. That was fun. Felt bad for the kid on the World team that gave up the lead. He looked pretty spooked.

  2. I’m interested to know if you guys were seeing much movement on Cosart’s fastballs. Maybe they’re just too fast for me to see, but looked like they were coming in a little flat. Great to see him hit his spots though. And awesome to see him get strikeouts with his secondary stuff.

    Valle was impressive too, I love the way he fights off pitches.

    1. Well, went back and watched his inning again. The third batter, he definetly had his fastball tailing away on the lefty. First two batters seemed to be able to put there bats on it.

      Reason I bring it up, was wondering if lack of movement on the fastball might be contributing to his lower strikeout numbers. Might be something to keep an eye on.

    2. I just went and pulled the pitchfx data for him.

      He had anywhere from 2-5″ of movement on his fastball. 2″ is about what Mathieson averages and 5″ is about what Madson averages for reference. So from pitch to pitch, he either had nearly zero or fairly decent movement:

      Here’s the breakdown on his 4 seamers:

      1 – 4″
      2 – 4″
      3 – 5″
      4 – 3″
      5 – 2″
      6 – 4″
      7 – 3″
      8 – 3″

      Its something he needs to work on but not a major concern. Madson has a relatively flat 4 seamer too but he uses it quite effectively. Mathieson is the complete opposite…a very flat fastball that he just tosses in there to get hammered.

      Also, for reference, his hammer curve had 15″ of break on it (damn, that’s really impressive) and his changeup had 6″ of break on it.

      http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_10_wftmin_uftmin_1

      Here is the link to the gameday for reference if you’re bored and dont want to go through the trouble of finding it.

      Cheers!

      1. Wow, awesome breakdown. Never really noticed that pitchfx before, cool little feature. Exactly what I was looking for, thanks!

  3. Cosart’s hammer curve was nice, but I’m worried a bit on his throwing motion. It wasn’t smooth at all.

    1. The good thing he is just 21 and there is no rush with the current rotation ahead of him for the Phils. He most likely won’t be part of a big league rotation till 2014.

      1. 2013 seems like a more appropriate time. Even assuming Worley stays and pans out and Hamels stays there will be an opening in 2013.

        1. There’s no way Cosart will be ready by 2013 with his injury history and lack of innings. Brett Myers spent only 4 years in the minors but he was a horse and threw a ton of innings. Cole Hamels spent 4 years in the minors but he was dominant at every level. 2014 is the earliest for Cosart.

          1. Your reference to Cole Hamels in support of your assertion that Cosart’s injury history will hold him back is a little bizarre. Hamels had repeated injuries that held him and his career back until 2006, when he took off. Remember, he began 2006 in Clearwater, of all places.

            Cosart may not be ready until 2013, but it probably won’t be because of injuries or lack of innings. He is simply a developing player.

            1. I put Cole Hamels in there because even though he had an injury history, he was completely dominant. Cosart has not been dominant in the minors.

          2. Well somebody is coming up in 2013. He is thought to be the best and most advanced of the group, so he has a real chance.

            1. Well, he’s the only one with ace potential (and even then you have to squint to see it), but he’s certainly not the only pitching prospect in the minors. May or Pettibone could both be up by then, and any one of J.C. Ramirez, Hyatt or even Cloyd could provide a cheap back-of-the-rotation option. The 2013 Phillies still figure to have Halladay, Lee and (hopefully!) Hamels at the top), so there’s really no rush for any of the top arms.

            2. My point is that the Phillies rarely rush anybody through their minor league system. It looks like 4 years is the minimum for Phillies prospects, and even then, there isn’t too many of those. It’s closer to 5 years. There is no rush for Cosart to be up in 2013. It’s likely that Hamels will be re-signed, so 2013 will still have Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley. For a 5th starter, the Phillies have a lot of options internally. I think JC Ramirez will get a shot.

            3. If I had to guess I would think that May is the one of the Clearwater group that gets pushed the fastest. Cosart needs a little more development and seems to have some minor throwing motion issues to deal with. Colvin probably repeats Clearwater unless he has a really good 2nd half. JRod is probably more of a bullpen prospect and Pettibone, while fairly polished, is less of a prospect than May.

              That leaves May who is both dominant and durable, and a year more advanced than Cosart. He probably gets a spot start or two next year if he pitches well at Reading in the first half.

          3. Ancient days the barometer was 500 innings in the minors–who knows what it is now–pitch counts maybe!

    2. Agree guru——appears stiff legged, and too upright. Shame Gus Hoefling passed away, he use to work wonders with kids in his yoga sessions for flexibility.

        1. HI Gus, this is Marissa, Bob Koerbel’s daughter from Bryn Mawr Pa, he often speaks of you and wonders how you are

  4. Very impressive evening for Cosart and Valle! Valle swung the bat like Pudge used to swing it, from the heels. Very aggressive swing with good contact rate. In a game loaded with arms, Valle was certainly up to the challenge. Look no further than Harper to see a good player just blown away by good fastballs. Valle looked to be right on each pitch, a real tough out, certainly not overwhelmed.
    In regards to Cosart, the look on his face to me said Closer! He appeared to be in the zone and was throwing darts. As far as movement, there was a little on the last hitter, but the Phils even stated that they have not introduced a cutter to him at this stage. Even though his ball looked a little straight, hitters were not catching up to it. The curveball on the strikout was excellent and a good change for the last K. Looks like a guy whose stuff plays up in late innings when hitters are forced to swing the bat. As a starter, I could see hitters being a little more patient and waiting him out. I could also see him trying to pace himself and not bringing it quite the same way.

    To me, never having seen May, I see his numbers and view him as a starter, Cosart as a closer and Valle as your future catcher. I would include Biddle as the only other untouchable guy in the system. Colvin would be the guy I would part with for future talent.

    On another note, if Rollins is looking for too many years for the Phils’ liking, isn’t Profar and expendable piece for the Rangers? They have Andrus for years to come. I would be interested in dealing from a position of strength on our end; pitching and 1b and try to get him to replace Rollins. They ran an interesting piece on WIP on Saturday; Keep 1; lose 1 and potentiall keep 1 out of Rollins, Hamels and Madson.
    it is a no brainer that Hamels has to stay. Madson may be a tough sign and Rollns as well. With a lineup that is aging a little, Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Polanco and Victorino, you will need to replace regulars with up and coming players. Profar would be a really nice athlete to add to the mix. We will not get much out of Singleton and they won’t have a need for Profar, so …..?

    1. Rollins on his contract, 7 July 2011– (paraphrasing) ‘……no home-town discounts…its business…’. Talk is he wants 4/5 years—turns 33 later this year. IMO, he probably, goes home to family, is a Giant in 2012.

      1. Power to him in that scenario. Giving him a 5 year deal would be a terrible mistake. Quick, name all the good 37 year old SS you can think of…

        Yeah, its a short list.

      2. Do you have a link for that?

        Not that I doubt you, I’m just interested in seeing what else he said. I remember a few years ago that he said something along those lines, but I haven’t heard anything recently (definitely not this year).

        1. He said it on 97.5 and I don’t believe a word of it. Philly, Oakland, and San Fran may all have equal chances, but if the Phillies offer 40m over 3 years and the Mets (or some other random team) offer 42 over 3 years he will stay a Phil. If the Mets offer 50m or add an extra year or something that actually changes the offer than sure he will go, but if one of his 3 teams have a competitive offer then he will give a discount.

            1. I made no comment who I wanted, I merely said that Rollins’ contention that he won’t give a discount is bogus.

    2. If you’re the Rangers, why would you do that? You have a team built to win now . . . if you’re trading Profar (which I doubt, given his upside), you trade him for a piece that can help you win the World Series this year. Not for a guy who helps you in 2013, if that.

  5. Rich,
    I was just making a point that Profar is blocked in that organization and that would be the type guy I would target for Rollins’ replacement. Profar won’t help them in the short term either. You won’t get a ss prospect from a team that needs a ss, so that is a position of depth for the Rangers, much like we have depth in pitching and 1b.
    More importantly, as much as I value Rollins’ contribution to the team, I would not sign him for more than 3 years. He has slipped a bit the past few years and we need to add some youth to what we will have. We lose Ibanez this year and Polanco next year, so there are two opportunities to do so. But, like ss, we probably don’t have their replacements ready in our system to step forward onto a championship caliber roster. I just hope that there is a plan in place to replace these guys as they move on.

    1. No question, Profar would be great to have. I just think the asking price for him is closer to Cole Hamels than Jon Singleton. Those positional scarcity things have a way of working themselves out.

    2. Fact is, just because a top prospect is blocked, it doesn’t mean that the team will trade him for peanuts. It will still take a big package to get him. For example, look at Yonder Alonso of the Reds, he’s blocked by Joey Votto. I’m sure the Reds won’t give him away, and in the meantime, they’re trying him out in LF. Sound familiar? Phillies are doing the same thing with Jon Singleton, and we’re not giving him away for peanuts either.

    3. A plan in place—-I hope I am wrong, but to me it appears they want Michael Martinez for two years at SS, until Galvis or someone comes ina trade or steps up. They have been playing him all over the place and batting him in the two spot a lot lately due to injuries to regular starters. And they like him–Charlie always talks praise about him.

      1. I agree with this as a possibility and have already posted it a while ago. It is very iffy that they resign Rollins, especially considering his comments about not giving any hometown discount. I think that the better Martinez plays, the more freedom they will feel that they have to let Rollins walk.

        1. What’s Rollins supposed to say going into his free agent year: “You know, I’m so happy in Philadelphia that I’ll take whatever they give me”? He’s not giving up any leverage before he reaches the negotiating table–that’s what he means by “it’s business.” And the Phillies know that the market is unlikely to give him 4 or 5 years, considering his declining offensive production, so they’ll both likely meet someplace in the middle. The idea of the Giants or another team blowing Rollins away with a huge offer, a la Werth, is far fetched in my opinion. Werth was coming off a career year and looked to be continuing to peak.

          1. Well, he is having his best season since 2008, he’s shown he’s healthy and the Giants will really need a SS next season.

            Jimmy will have plenty of options if he wants to move on. He’s gonna end up with a WAR in the 3-4 range.

      2. See I don’t think they see Martinez as a Rollins replacement. I think he is valuable in the role he is in now, he can play everywhere but catcher and will see spot starts because of injuries and players needing breaks (a Wilson Valdez that can also play CF). A valuable major league player but not an everyday starter.

        1. Agree. The only one that might consider now for Rollins’ position is Galvis. And I would bet we sign someone (Rollins or not) for a minimum of two years to hedge our bets against Galvis not hitting enough. Martinez is there for roster flexibility off the bench. Not as a potential starting SS.

      3. My god…

        If the Phillies let Rollins walk for Mini-Mart, I might just stop watching this team altogether. He doesn’t even deserve to be on the 25 man roster when the team is fully healthy, let alone be an everyday player. He can’t hit (yesterday’s game notwithstanding), and he fields every position poorly. He is sub-replacement hitting and replacement fielding.

        Is this even really a possibility? Are the Phillies even considering this? I mean, I’m just flabbergasted that this is even being spoken of as a realistic option.

        1. If Rollins walks, the Phillies options are limited internally. Valdez, Michael Martinez are the first choices. I doubt Galvis is ready. It’s possible that the Phillies swing a trade to get somebody.

          Either way, whoever we get is holding the fort for Roman Quinn. He’s the future at SS (if we get him signed)

          1. Wow, now there’s a leap of faith that the position is on hold for an unsigned draft choice taken outside of the top-5 picks. there has to be about 29 other teams kicking themselves for not drafting a sure thing major league SS.

            1. You mean all the teams that passed on Jimmy Rollins when he was drafted in the second round? I’m just saying that the Phillies’ options at SS are Quinn, Galvis, and not much else. And the jury is still out on Galvis’ bat. Right now, Quinn looks to be our best long term option.

            2. If the best long term option has never swung a bat at a professional pitch (or for that matter signed a contract), then the team is in a whole bunch of trouble over the coming years.

            3. Very good chance that Quinn doesn’t even end up playing SS. He was listed as an OF in the draft but the Phillies are going to try to see if he can play in the middle IF.

              As GregA correctly states, if he’s their best option at SS, the Phillies are in for some very lean years.

  6. Hey Howling Fantods,
    I would wholeheartedly disagree with your assessment of Martinez’s defensive ability. I truly believe he is an exceptional infielder at all 3 positions. I am not sure if he can hit or not, but would not believe a year in which he plays one day a week would give us an accurate gauge. I am sure the Phils saw him a lot in the minors and believe he has something to offer from an offensive standpoint.

    1. I am not on the MM bandwagon yet but if there were a stat for heart in a big game he would score high along with Mayberry.

    1. Good analysis. Bottom line. Huge ceiling. Needs more consistency. Hasn’t pitched enough innings. But his upside is huge. I am very comfortable with that. Especially since there is no rush with our rotation.

      Anyone see video of the game somewhere (YouTube?)? I would love to watch his inning

  7. Keith Law during yesterday’s future game mentioned his revised top 5 farm systems. I don’t remember his exact order but the Rays, Royals, and Braves were in there ahead of….#5 the Philadelphia Phillies. I didn’t think the organization was consider that high..my feelings were that we are around 10-12 overall in baseball. Good news for us!

      1. It was the blue jays, which happens to be led by former Phillies prospects and their own top prospect Brett Lawrie

    1. Yet we haven’t produced a quality position player since 2006 when Ruiz was called up, and there are none in the near future except possibly Brown.

    2. Yeah, I had to pause the tv and make sure I really was seeing Phils at 5, lol. Pretty cool he regards them that high.

  8. If I were the Phillies I would not trade: Valle (only C), Galvis (only SS), or Singleton (great approach). The pitching is deep enough that they could trade any of Clearwater guys but I’d try to put any extra high price tag on Cosart, May, Colvin. However, I figure any team in discussion will ask for one them, because I certainly would, but each of them has some notable flaws right now.

  9. I saw both of these guys play in Florida last month – I’m not surprised that they excelled last night. Cosart’s curve looked f***ing brilliant. Too good for High-A.

  10. You know . . . if you had to ask me to describe the Phillies’ biggest minor league surprise this year, I might just pick Joe Savery’s reemergence as a pitching prospect. He seems to have regained velocity he has not seen since early in his college days. What a shocker.

    1. Joe’s a Houston kid—maybe Ed Wade would consider taking him off our hands for say, just throwing any name out there, Hunter Pence?

  11. If Rollins walks and Galvis plays, the money saving should be put into a big time outfield (young hopefully) thus reducing the SS shock.

  12. Please put me in the Bourne camp. Vic in right and Brown in left seems more than enough on this team. How many games have we seen this year where defense or lack of decided the game

  13. Cosart to me was impressive,but what really got me was the change up on the lefthand batter. that was a pitch a righthand pitcher needs to be effective.

  14. with that velocity on his fastball the break on that curve, and even the changeup, how the hell does he only have 68 k’s in 92 innings in A ball

    1. Tyler Greene signed. He is the SS of the near future with Big Time 5 Tool potential! If we can develop the Tool Box, we have a Tulo for many years to come!!

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