Box Score Recap, 18 May 2011

Its a wild world. A wide world filled with box scores. Before I get to that, 2 notes. I’ve now included the VSL box score in the daily recap. Second, I will be working on a draft piece this weekend, hopefully with some guys that I find interesting, some video, some scouting blurbs, etc etc. So look for that. Also, am I looking in the wrong place, or has minorleaguebaseball.com not uploaded any scouting reports yet for draft prospects? Last year I thought they started putting stuff up in early April, this year, nothing. What gives? Anyway, the box scores.

88 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 18 May 2011

  1. A liitle weird that Contreras started the game when it was Colvin’s turn to pitch. Why couldn’t Contreras have gotten his innings later in the game? Player of the day is clearly Biddle, who pitched his best game of the season so far. This in a year in which he doesn’t, according to Lamar, have to worry about results.

    1. Yep. This Philly team has done this often in the past, and is done by many other teams. Theory- they want MLB relievers to get an inning or so in while at the same time resting up a bit, so they put them in game early, rather than having them hang around for hours to maybe work an inning near end of game. And, as an aside, in case anybody missed it, Colvin got bombed.

  2. It’s semi-common to let the rehabbing veterans get their work in at the beginning of the game. It’s a simpler warm up routine from a health perspective and frankly, they matter more than the other guys, even if it is Colvin.

    Looking at these boxscores everyday, I swear Nate Bump pitches every game and Freddy Galvis isn’t a terrible hitter.

    Last but not least, I didn’t understand why Matt Rizzotti was assigned to double-A. Yes he’s a DH with Daric Barton upside at the plate, but he’s still semi-prospectish enough to let him swing away wherever his bat plays. Bozied is a fine soldier but I’m surprised the Phillies aren’t more curious about testing the younger man’s soldiering skills at triple-A.

  3. Rizzotti is an animal! Don’t care what is said about his defense, the kid can hit and it’s shocking no team took a stab at him after he was released from the 40 man. Will be even more interesting if he is still batting .350 w/ good power numbers, and no team wants him as at least a throw in piece… although with a bat like that, he should warrant his own trade.

  4. Dane “The Bullfighter” Sardinha with his best game of the year tonight vs the Rockies. Great job loser, you didn’t get in the way. Has anybody found an airplane ticket for him yet? He needs a one way ticket to the VSL…

    1. I hear ya loud & clear. He must have a picture of Amaro and Charlie in the shower or something. He no more belongs in the major leagues than you or me. How about Erik Kratz? He hits a little, has some pop, and has to be a much better option that Sardinha. Sardinha was Kratz’s backup at LV and I he was batting a whopping .105 when he was called up. Four hits in 38 ABs w/13 Ks. Is there something about him that we don’t know? How can the Phillies NOT send him down, and while there at is, have Baez drive him in a one-way rent a car. Sometimes I wonder what the powers to be are thinking about.

      1. I think I was one of the first to say I was tired of seeing Sardinha be the first one called up when Ruiz gets banged up. I asked that question to a certain beat writer and he thinks the default is who the pitchers are most comfortable with.

        For whatever reason Dane has a good rapport with the pitchers and if you noticed Halladay wants him over Schneider if he can’t have Ruiz.

  5. I gotta admit, I was a tad skeptical of Rizzotti’s breakout last year, but boy is he backing it up. Now if there were only something to do with him…

  6. There is no reason to have Matt Rizzotti in AA so that he can hit .360 with power – he did that last year and is doing it again. Move him up for crying out loud!

  7. Biddle’s outing was productive. 6 shutout innings. 8 Ks and only 5 hits allowed. But 4 BBs. That’s 9 baserunners in 6 innings. Luckily, there were 2 DPs. He walked the leadoff guy in 2 innings and that usually will kill you. He got away with it. He also gave up 2 BBs and a hit in the 5th with 1 out and worked his way out of it. I really like that. The recap of the game was interesting. 8 guys, 3 from Lakewood and 5 from the opponent, were called out on strikes. What kind of strike zone was being employed last night? Was the pitching that good, were hitters not adapting to the umpire’s strike zone or was it a constantly changing strike zone?

    The big club has gone 3, 4, 5, 5 & 5. That’s the number of hits in the last 5 games. A team of Galvis’ would do better than that. And I picked Galvis because 8 guys with great gloves would save more runs than the current team can produce with their bats.

  8. Albertin Chavez very impressive start at 3rd. Gonzalez, J also nice job. Izturriaga 6k so far so good.

    1. Yeah, DH’ed yesterday, was hoping for Francisco Herrera to play most of the 3rd base, but Chavez might play alot. Then you think they keep playing Astudillo at 2nd and Morelos at SS. 16 year olds Jair Morelos at SS and Alejandro Garcia in RF played both games . Frank Rivas also a top hitter in the 2 games, moving from C to 1B. Looks like they will run the C’s between C and 1B. The LHP’s Jorge Gonzalez was one of the top pitchers for VSL team last season, and Izzturiaga has already been to the states and back , so when he finishes up in VSL maybe he comes back again.

  9. Does Rizotti have more value as a trade chip or pinch hitter, i.e. replacement for Gload? Not being able to play a position is a problem for an NL bench player.

    I think his trade value may be higher while he rakes in AA. Those numbers are hard to ignore. He is obviously comfortable there. Why mess it up by moving him to AAA?
    If the Phillies are going to keep him then they need to promote him so he gets to see more experienced pitchers.

    1. I don’t see Rizotti being on the Phils, but he will likely head to the AL where he can be a DH. He has proven to be a really good hitter. His value to the Phils is as trade bait.

      1. My prediction on Rizzotti stands. He may be useful for the Phillies toward the end of the year as a spot starter (first) and pinch hitter, and might even be a possible WS DH if they make it that far.

        However, he will ultimately end up in the AL as a DH and he will surprise a lot of people and, perhaps, end up having a nice little career. I’ve been thinking of who he is similar to and the best name I could come up with was Kent Hrbek. I think he’ll be that kind of player and it would not surprise me at all if he ends up playing for the Twins. Rizzotti is a very underrated guy. He makes contact, he draws walks and he shows increased power. He is going to be a huge bargain for somebody down the line. I wish we could find an equivalent minor league player who can man a corner outfield position.

        1. This is where people lose me regarding the Rizzotti argument. Let’s go point by point:

          1. “He may be useful for the Phillies toward the end of the year as a spot starter (first) and pinch hitter, and might even be a possible WS DH if they make it that far.” —– I find it very doubtful that the Phillies would find spot starts for Rizzotti (who bats LH just like Howard) when they rarely ever find spot starts even for RH replacements for Howard. Especially since they think so lowly of Rizzotti that they placed him on waivers earlier this spring. Noow multiply that by 100 and thats how unlikely it is that he would be the DH in the WS if we make it there. He has never even had success in AA. Do you really think that Charlie Manuel is writing Matt Rizzotti’s on a lineup card in October? C’mon man….

          2. “I’ve been thinking of who he is similar to and the best name I could come up with was Kent Hrbek. I think he’ll be that kind of player and it would not surprise me at all if he ends up playing for the Twins.” —– These are the statements that drive rational thinking people crazy on this board. So you think Rizzotti could be a Kent Hrbek type player do ya? Is this based on anything other than their body types? I am pretty sure you are just saying this because they have similar bodies (and believe it or not, I think Rizzotti’s body is actually worse). Let’s compare Hrbek and Rizzotti though. Matt Rizzotti is 25 years old and tearing up AA. For the second year in a row. So you’re comparing a guy that cant get out of AA as a 25 yr old to a guy that hit 293 HRs and had a 1,000 RBIs in the majors? You are comparing a 25 year old in AA to a guy that was in his 4th major league season at 25, and had a ROY runner up, an MVP runner up, and an All Star game under his belt already? You are comparing a guy who was toiling at Manhattan College at the age of 21, to a guy that hit .379 with 27 HR and 111 RBI in high A ball before being skipped over AA and AAA and played for the Twins that same year at 21 years old. You are comparing a guy that CANT EVEN PLAY A POSITION in AA to a guy that placed in the Top 3 in Fielding % of AL 1B in 8 different seasons.

          To sum it up, yes Matt Rizzotti is just like Kent Hrbek and he has a GREAT chance of being a similar player. In case anyone cant tell, I am using heaping amounts of SARCASM in that last statement…

          1. I meant to say Rizzotti hasnt even had any success in AAA yet in my first point…

          2. Look – the point on Rizzotti’s fielding is an excellent one. I had not gone back over Hrbek’s fielding statistics and had not recalled his abilities in that regard and you are completely right. Still, I was discussing Rizzotti as a DH, so I was obviously referring only to his hitting abilities.

            As for the other points, I actually do get the whole issue with regard to the value of prospects as measured by their age and performance, particularly when viewed in the context of the league in which they are performing. I also understand that, once a prospect hits a certain age, the odds of his becoming a major leaguer, no less an important major leaguer go down. They go way down. I get it. And, for the most part, I accept that the statistical laws will dictate the likely path of the vast, vast majority of prospects.

            Still, there are exceptions. Players that defy statistically likely outcomes. Players that come on late and have nice careers, even those who are exposed to Rule 5 drafts and the waiver wire. GMs and scouts are human – they are not always right about players. If they were, Albert Pujols never would have been a 13th round draft pick.

            So, I used Kent Hrbek as a comparison. He reminds me a little of him. Let’s not go overboard here. I never said he would replicate Hrbek’s numbers (particularly career numbers – that’s now impossible). I never said he would have the same career trajectory (he won’t and he can’t – he would be coming up too late for that). But, in most years, Hrbek was a solid hitter with good power, good contact skills, and decent walk numbers. He ranged between a 2-4.5 WAR in most years.

            I think Rizzotti has outstanding contact skills, he can draw walks, and he can hit the snot out of the ball (and I think his power is now only beginning to fully surface0. The only reason he is still in AA right now is he acted like a dufus in the offseason and they are trying to teach him a lesson. When he gets to AAA, he may have a short adjustment period, but I expect his numbers to be excellent and, it may take a little while, but I think he’s going to wind up as someone’s DH and put up some really good seasons provided, of course, that he get an opportunity.

            I could be wrong. I understand your statistical arguments and I accept and understand that it is statistically quite unlikely that this will occur. I personally think Rizzotti will be the exception and these exceptions really do occur from time to time. You disagree. It’s all good. No need to blow a gasket.

            But I do agree that, whether he could help them as a DH or a pinch hitter in the postseason is probably irrelevant since, whether he could do it or not, he would never get the chance.

            1. Just so my comments do not spark a whole new series of comments, let me be clear that:

              1. I do not think that Matt Rizzotti is another Kent Hrbek or will replicate his feats.

              2. I do not think that Matt Rizzotti is going to have a career in length that is equivalent to Kent Hrbek’s or that he will ever become an all-star or an MVP candidate as Kent Hrbek was on occasion.

              3. Statistics and his known ineptitude in the field suggest that Matt Rizzotti may be unlikely ever to reach the big leagues and, even if he does, statistically, he is unlikely ever to have anything more than a brief big league career.

              4. I think Rizzotti has a good chance to buck the odds and become a viable DH candidate. At best, he might produce a year or couple of years that look like an average Kent Hrbek year, but this is also unlikely. He has some skills that remind me of Hrbek and he is built a little like Hrbek. He is not another Hrbek.

              Can we all get along now?

        2. Looks like the Answer’s Positive Rizzotti Talk Alarm went off again.

          Best case on Rizzotti might be Kevin Maas, Or Erubiel Durazo, who was never respected by scouts, couldn’t play defense but could mash. Same body type. Or a left handed Bucky Jacobsen. Both Durazo and Jacobsen were AA players at the age of 25, both made contributions at the MLB level.

          Not every statement you disagree with merits jumping down someone’s throat about it. It’s tiresome.

          1. I agree with your conclusion – and I’ve tried lately to stay on the positive side of the Rizzotti debate. Of course that’s been easier to do lately. :)

            But it does get a little annoying when you see a Hrbek comparision from an otherwise insightful poster. (And of course there are also still people around here who think that the .350 BA is predictive of his big league BA). There’s a lot positive we can say about the man without going off the deep end.

            And let’s not forget that the bar (in terms for offense) for DHs is pretty high – sure, you see some guys with lousy numbers – see Cust, Jack – but looking at career numbers, the worst regular DH is a pretty strong hitter. It’s not enough to say “Rizz could hit better than Jack Cust” is hitting – there are plenty of “experienced” major league players out there who could hit better than Cust is hitting. I think it’s really tough for a rookie to get a DH slot – they usually go to veterans.

            Which isn’t to say that Rizz shouldn’t or even won’t get a shot – but defensively challenged 25 year old AA (or even AAA) first basemen/DH have a tough time breaking through. Your post is I think more realistic about the comps. Hopefully he can and will get his chance and make the best of it.

      2. Nobody claimed him when he was free, even on potential. He is a throw in at best. I say promote him to aaa purgatory.

        1. Disagree. So far this year, Rizzotti has been given the upside of Hrbek, Nick Johnson, Adam Dunn and Joey Votto. Shocking that no GM in MLB thought that upside was worth a spot on their 40 man.

        2. I think the fact of placed on waivers and went unclaimed, in and of itself, is of less importance than what many might claim it is. Rizzotti was placed on the 40 man roster in his first year eligible for the rule 5 draft, which , in itself suggests “the brain trust” at least considered he might be selected in said draft. Then, in order to remove Rizzotti from the 40 man roster he HAD to go through waivers to clear a 40 man roster spot, and other 40 man roster players had greater utility for team future at time. Consider another player on 40 man roster, Harold Garcia- not much difference age wise, not protected in first year of eligibility for rule 5 and went unclaimed. So, by the same evaluation, he must also be a “no-hoper”. But , by putting up fairly good numbers (for an IF’er) in A (A) and AA the following year, many speak of Garcia as a sure fire MLB reserve or even starter. Those numbers not as good as Rizzotti’s at AA, and good AA numbers are good AA numbers. Which brings up the positional difference, which is really all the difference, most every organization has several promising 1B types that can hit , while Rizzottti given another body configuration and proficiency at another position would have a different evaluation. So the downgrade is due to factors outside of the world of hitting.

          1. “So the downgrade is due to factors outside of the world of hitting.”

            Well sure, but that doesn’t exactly support your argument.

            Look, I don’t think that the fact that he was unclaimed is much in the way of evidence of how good he is or could be. It’s cirumstantial evidence, but we have better direct evidence.

            It is pretty clearly evidence that he was not highly regarded around the league, fairly or not.

            Simply put, there are multiple factors – some reflecting reality, some not – which are going to make it tougher for him to get a fair shot than a younger/more athletic/better defensive player. Look at baseball history & you’ll find a ton of guys like Rizzotti. Some of them get a shot and end up with real careers. More of them don’t.

          2. Discounting that he went on waivers and no one claimed him is shortsighted.

            I realize scouting for other teams make mistakes, but I tend to believe the market is efficient. There is a difference, btw, between “no value” and “no incremental value” When a player isn’t picked up, they’re just saying the like what they have in house better. This echoes the point there are a lot of well hitting 1b prospects out there…

            On the Harold Garcia point, when Harold Garcia was exposed to the Rule 5 and no one took him, the market did say they were indifferent to him. Once again, not that he has no value, just no incremental value.

            But it was a different circumstance; (1) you have to pay something to be picked up in the rule 5 draft. Waiver you pay just salary without an acquisition fee. (2) Garcia had never played above high A. Rizzotti has performed hitting quite well at AA and in the winter league. (3)

            To me it’s more of an indictment of Rizz that without a fee and with more experience teams declined to take a chance on Rizz.

            1. You left out the biggest and most significant difference. Teams would have had to carry Harold Garcia on the active roster all year to keep him. Rizzotti only had to be placed on the 40 man, for a team to keep him.
              Similar to Carlos Rivero’s situation with the Phillies and Jesus Sanchez with Milwaukee.

            2. That is a great point mike77. Taking it a step further, the dollar cost of paying for that player, then keeping him on your roster for the entire year, AND paying him 10x what you would’ve in the minors is a risk not worth taking.

              Comparing the Rizz situation to the Garcia situation is completely off base.

  10. 1. OF – Domonic Brown (Lehigh Valley) – (.341) 1 for 5 with an RBI, a BB, a K and CS (2)
    2. RHP – Brody Colvin (Clearwater)- (0-1, 6.97) – 4 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB and 3 K’s
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.267) –1 for 3 with a BB and a K
    4. RHP – Jared Cosart (Clearwater) – (4-3, 3.52) – DNP
    5. RHP – Trevor May (Clearwater)- (3-2, 3.89) – DNP
    6. C – Sebastian Valle (Clearwater) – (.337) – DNP
    7. LHP – Jesse Biddle (Lakewood) – (2-5, 4.70) – 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB and 8 K’s (win)
    8. RHP – Vance Worley (Lehigh valley) – (2-2, 3.51) – DNP
    9. OF – Tyson Gillies (Reading) – DNP
    10. RHP – Justin De Fratus (Reading) – (2-0, 2.95, 3 SV) – 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and a K
    11. RHP – Julio Rodriquez (Clearwater)- (5-1, 2.17) – DNP
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.184) DNP
    13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.239) 0 for 3
    14. RHP – JC Ramirez (Reading) – (5-2, 2.92) – DNP
    15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Lakewood) – (.193) – DNP
    16. RHP – Jon Pettibone (Clearwater) – (3-3, 1.69) DNP
    17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.205) – DNP
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.233) – 2 for 4 with a SB (6) and a CS (3)
    19. 2B – Harold Garcia (Reading) – (.300) Out for the season with a torn ACL
    20. RHP – Kevin Walter – Season hasn’t started
    21. RHP – Colby Shreve (Lakewood) – (2-3, 4.85) – DNP
    22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Reading) – (0-2, 3.50, 3 SV) – DNP
    23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (1-0, 2.45, SV) – DNP
    24. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (Reading) – (.359) – 3 for 5 with 2 HR (8) and 4 RBI
    25. RHP – Austin Hyatt (Reading) – (5-2, 4.19) – DNP
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.283) – 2 for 4
    27. OF – Miguel Alvarez (Lakewood) –(.222) – DNP
    28. OF – Kelly Dugan – Season hasn’t started
    29. RHP – Josh Zeid (Reading) – (1-3, 6.28) – DNP
    30. RHP – Percival Garner – Season hasn’t started

    Others:

    1B – Cody Overbeck (Reading) – (.271) 2 for 4 with a run, a BB and a K
    1B – Darin Ruf (Clearwater) – (.291) – 0 for 3 with a BB and a K
    3B – Ronnie Belliard (Lehigh Valley) – (.278) – DNP
    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.275) 1 for 4 with a 2B (9) and a run
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.243) – 2 for 5 with a 2B (6), 3B (2), 2 runs and 2 RBI
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.258) – 1 for 4 with run and an RBI
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.354) – 0 for 3 with a BB and 2K’s
    RHP – David Buchanan (Lakewood) – (5-2, 2.29) – DNP
    RHP – Lisalberto Bonilla (Lakewood) – (0-1, 0.73) –DNP
    LHP – Mario Hollands (Lakewood) –(2-3, 4.43) – DNP

      1. Well that was nasty – I’d hate to be your employee. Perhaps you think it is a waste of time and, if so, skip over them. Pretty much everyone else thinks they save a lot of time and are useful.

        Speak for yourself, dude.

      2. You couldn’t be more wrong its hard if not impossible to read box scores on a phone so him doing this fills us in

    1. Carlos Rivero, one of the few players at Reading (that is close to age appropriate) can hit and play a defensive position, was a good pickup by the FO. A .286 in BA, .840 OPS and .200 ISO, from a SS/3B is eye catching. He is having one of better seasons in the system so far.

        1. LoL. Good point. Interesting that Carlos Rivero has 1,000 abs at AA before the age of 23, but favorites like Derrick Mitchell and Cody Overbeck were still in A ball at the age of 23. Now Rivero has better hitting numbers than either guy this year.

  11. Unless I’m wrong (always a possibility), I think most of Biddle’s issues with walks came in his final inning or two. I swear I looked in the fourth inning and he had either one or none at the time.

  12. This will scare the shit out of everyone.

    Galvis has 11 extra-base hits and a slugging percentage of .368

    J-Roll has 11 and .365.
    Ibanez has 10 and .338
    Francisco has 8 and .348
    Valdez has 6 and .309

    I could go on… Sorry.

    1. How many extra base hits does Singleton have? I don’t know the answer, but I rarely see one in the BS. I know it is early etc. but I still find it odd.

  13. I’m glad to see Rizzotti tearing it up again but I don’t see him ever playing for the Phils. IMO, if they planned on him being a future big league contributor, he would be in AAA right now facing more experienced pitching. The fact that they’re leaving him in AA after he clearly proved last year that he can hit there, shows me that they want other teams to notice the numbers and maybe take a chance on him. If they call him up to AAA and his numbers decline, no team is going to want him. Let him continue to rake in AA and hopefully we can trade him for a decent bullpen pitcher at the deadline.

  14. Yup, scary Ketch, scary. I’m too lazy too look it up, but he may be walking at a better clip than those guys too…

    Getting worried about Singleton. He’s getting a bit lucky with his batted average on balls in play, and really hasn’t shown any power yet this year. Small sample size – sure, but at 100 AB’s you’re starting to get a fuzy looking picture. On the bright side, he is still taking a few walks.

  15. Rizz hadn’t been hitting with power until recently. If he builds on the recent power surge he’ll be a nice throw in, but he needs dingers consistently.

  16. I still don’t understand the significance behind using BABIP for hitters. Everyone with a high average will have a high BABIP. Can someone please explain the logic in deriving any meaning from that number? It doesn’t mean someone is getting lucky because every single ball could be a line drive 15 feet from any fielder and the number wouldn’t budge. There is no way to have a high average without a high BABIP. Even if it’s above a career norm, the guy could simply be squaring up on pitches.

    1. I agree. From what I’ve read, BABIP is considered to be more useful when looking at pitchers than it is for hitters.

      It only really seems to be significant when a guy is putting up an unusually high/low number over a short time span which would indicate they are getting overly lucky/unluckly for that period.

    2. Yes and no. 3up3kkk is right that BABIPs out of line with that hitter’s historical level should be red flags, but they need to be way out of line. For example, I looked at Von Hayes and his BABIP ranged from .260 to .320 for a full season over his career. So Singleton’s BABIP of .400 seems high compared to last year at .321.

      But regarding high BABIP = high AVG, that’s not always the case. Last year Pujols had a BABIP of .297 and an AVG of .312 while Ichiro had a BABIP of .353 and an AVG of .315. But by and large you are right, as of the top 20 in AVG last year, only Pujols and Victor Martinez had a BABIP below .326.

      OK, who remembers how good Von Hayes was?? I had forgotten. He had four years with a WAR of 4 or better. Some guys who had close to a 4 WAR last year: Braun, Byrd, Swisher, Fielder, Wright, Phillips, V Martinez, Wells, Dunn, Prado, A-Rod, Alexei Ramirez

      1. Sigh. This is one of the most misunderstood topics on this site. Partly I guess because some people do treat the topic overly simplistically, but also because it is a tough topic to explain fully, especially absent a lot of numbers. It might be helpful to have a longer post with some real numbers to back it up. It’s true that some players have higher babip than do others, and can sustain that. But:

        (1) Even the best hitters generally don’t babip over around .330. There are some excpetions but not many. And no one babips .400 or even close.

        (2) Minor league babip especially are subject to a lot of distortions (worse fielding is a huge factor; you also sometimes have hitters who are much more addvanced than the pitchers at their level; that won’t translate to facing major league pitchers). MOST of the time high minor league babip are not predictive of major league babip (that is, I am sure there is a corrolation, but a weak one).

        (3) Sample size also comes into play. While SOME players can sustain higher than average babip, a sample size of a couple hundred ab doesn’t necessarily predict sustained success.

        (4) High BA are more a function of good contact skills than high babip. More on that in a seperate comment.

        (5) Also complicating this is that, all else being equal, high HR totals also lead to a higher BA. This factor is masked by the fact that usually HR skills and contact skills are negatively corrolated. But a guy like Pujols, who combines good contact skills and good HR skills, can have a high BA despite a low babip.

        1. One side point – I think larrym is talking about career BABIP. There can be a lot of variability in BABIP from season to season. For example, last year AJax had a BABIP of .396, Hamilton had a BABIP of .390, and CarGo had a BABIP of .384. Those will most definitely not be their career numbers, but it does illustrate that odd BABIPs can be sustained over a full season.

          1. Yes, career babip. But the subject here – the subject of this site – is projecting how a minor league player will do in the majors. For that, I think we should be interested in sustained performance – i.e., career numbers.

      2. Looking at the top 10 active players BA:

        (1) They tend to be across the board good in K%, HR% and babip. All are a factor.
        (2) Six of 10 have exceptional contact skills (K% 11.0 or lower). The other 4 are average or a little better than average in that regard.
        (3) Seven of them have signficantly better than average power numbers.
        (4) Only 2 of them have a babip over .350 (and not by much – Suzzuki at .356 and Jeter at .354). Those guys are line drive hitters AND fast (lots of infield hits).
        (5) Three of them have only slightly above average babip (Ordonez, Pujols and Guerrero). The other 5 are between .320 and .350.

        But even that is very deceptive. Not to beat a dead horse, but see the minor league/major league discussion in my prior comment. I don’t have the exact numbers, but I would guess that of every 300 minor leaguers who have put up a .350 babip for a full season, just one of them goes on to have that kind of major league babip. .350 babip are common in the minors; they are rare in the majors.

        Another way to look at this is that, if you’re looking at minor league predictors of major league hitting success, low K%, high BB%, and high HR% are much better predictors than high BA. One of the reasons for this is babip, but it isn’t the only one. Maybe a simpler way to look at is is to simply be wary of high minor league BA.

        Rizzotti may well be able to duplicate his K%, BB% and HR% in the majors (no guarentees, though). He won’t duplicate his BA. His upside is probably about .300, and if I had to predict I’d say .290. Which is still, with his other hitting skills, good enough.

        1. It’s really facinating to look at these numbers, and to see what drives high babip. Some of it is fairly intuitive – the guys with high babip tend to have high line drive percentages.

          But I think people underestimate the extent to which infield hits are a factor. Not for everyone, but certain players have an insane number of infield hits. Some of those guys are who you would expect: Ichiro has 404 over his career!!! Some are surprising – Matt Kemp has 69 over a much shorter career. Matt Holliday has 106. And even some guys with lesser totals still have more than you might think, and owe at least part of their high babip to IF hits. Ryan Braun has 81, same as Michael Bourn, granted in a few more AB. Hunter Pence has 111.

        2. I’d speculate – I wonder if there has been research on this – but I suspect that IF hits are the main reason why there is more variance in batter babip than there is in pitcher babip. LD% is something that both pitchers and hitters can control to some extent, but IF hit% is something that is out of the pitcher’s control, and highly dependent on the speed & acceleration of the hitter.

    3. The greatest BABIP since 1901 career is Ty Cobb’s .379. The greatest active BABIP is Ichiro’s .356. When a player significantly overperforms those marks, you can only conclude that he is either better than those players or that it will come down somewhat. It is not just luck. The hitter may well be making solid contact often.

      But baseball is a game of adjustments. As the hitter beats the opposition, the opposition adjusts. Pitchers pitch away from a hitter’s strengths, the defense shifts, that fielder moves 15 feet to his right and snares that line drive. To say its luck is not entirely accurate. But there are forces constantly at work that enforce these numbers.

      1. And if Cobb were alive today he would not babip anywhere near .379. The game has changed in many ways. Relevant to babip, fielding is better (grounds maintained better, better equipment, etc.). modern pitching for a lot of reasons also makes generating contact a lot tougher (though higher HR rates somewhat counteract this).

        Really Ichiro’s mark is IMO close to an outer limit in today’s game. It’s what you get when you have an extreme line drive hitter who also is fast enough to get a lot of IF hits.

  17. With regard to Singleton I worry more about how is body type is going to play in the OF. The kid is huge and he is still just 19 which means we can expect him to fill out even more.

    As far as his bat he seems to see and recognize off speed pitches very well. I think its a timing issue for him right now. Once he finds that the ball will be flying out to all fields again.

  18. Is Rizzotti really a worse athlete than John Kruk and Matt Stairs? Cause those guys played left field for years. I’ve never seen him in person. When he was drafted, they were looking at him as an outfielder, but I guess that wasn’t realistic.

    Does JC Ramirez have trade value? His numbers are great, besides strikeouts of course. I guess the sort of leftfielder you could get for mid-level prospects wouldn’t be a huge upgrade over Ibanez.

    1. Yes he is. You’re comparing the 25-year old version of Rizzotti with the 40-year old version of Stairs or the 35-year old Kruk.

      Kruk Stole 18 bases in the ML at the age of 26 and Stairs stole 23 bases in AA-ball at Harrisburg at the age of 23. Neither of those guys were overly athletic at any point in their careers but they were more nimble than the Riz.

      The Phillies supposed tried moving Rizzotti to the OF over the off-season but the experiment didn’t last very long, most likely because he wasn’t able to handle the position.

      1. Based upon what I’ve read from scouts and other people who have watched him, he can’t really even play 1B adequately. Not a good candidate for moving to the OF. A shame, as I commented yesterday.

  19. They could eventually move Singleton to 1B when Howard’s contract runs out…or once his value is completely gone except as a pinch-hitter against righties.

    1. Sometimes when young players advance they concentrate on meeting the ball and do not swing as hard as they should. Wait until July and revisit.
      E.G. Sandberg looked weak his first month or so and that worked out.

    1. Was in KG’s write-up too, with the caveat that his velocity is down this season from where it was last fall. Anybody have a reading on him from a start this year? Some of the numbers being thrown around last year were a bit insane anyway (a lefty sitting 94-96 probably doesn’t fall to the Phillies, competition or not).

  20. two questions if someone can help me 1) when do williamsport and gcl start? 2) please refresh my memory who is there to be excited about besides dugan, walter, garner and pointer?

    1. Well , excited might be relative as these guys (mostly talking about the Williamsport group) were not adjudged as of the level of the Lakewood guys. Some might replace some of those guys, with the Lakewood guy demoted, and some might be benched for new Rule 5 draftees. But, here is players placed by experience level, I say, for the Short Seasons.
      * bats or throws left # switch hitter
      WPT-
      C- # Francisco Diaz, # Robert Stumpo
      1B- * Christopher Duffy, Patrick Murray, Jeffrey Cusick
      2B- Steven Malcolm
      SS- # Nerio Rios
      3B- Maikol Franco, Carlos Alonso
      LF- #Kelly Dugan
      CF- Kyrell Hudson
      RF- Gauntlett Eldemire
      OF- * Bill Rice, * Luis Amaro
      SP- Percival Garner, Craig Fritsch, Lendy Castillo, Kevin Walter, Colin Kleven, Gilbert Arias
      RP- Jake Smith (former 3B), Suilman Lebron, *Pedro Lora, Michael Nesseth, Juary Gomez
      GCL-
      C- # Chance Numata, * Angel Chavarin
      1B- Yeisson Morales (also 3B)
      2B- # Jorge Castillo, #Alejandro Villalobos
      SS- Gustavo Gonzalez
      3B- Carlos Valenzuela
      LF- * Brian Pointer
      CF- Bernardo Solarte
      RF- # Witer Jimenez
      OF- Jorge Miranda, * Luis Unda
      SP-* Linus Martinez, Miguel Nunez, Jonathon Musser, * Luis Gonzalez, Leonel Bastidas
      RP- Luis Paulino (former 3B), Carlos Best , Zael Honora, Luis Morales, Josh Warner, Jesus Pirela, Ramon Oviedo, Jorge Serrano, * Ethan Stewart, Marek Minarik, * Fabian Cota, Steven Inch

      1. Anybody knows more about Valenzuela and Witer Jimenez? Are they good prospects, their chances, plays now in training etc. Thnx

        1. Hard to say how they’ll do. Figure they go to GCL because they haven’t been returned to the Dominican SL yet. If they can win playing time over the rest of the XST players and/or players Philly gets in the upcoming draft, figure they might have a shot, they were signed after all. Valenzuela got a reported $100,000 signing bonus , pretty noteworthy at the time of signing, spent ~3 years in the DSL. Did not always excel in DSL, and should get competition for playing time from Yeisson Morales and/or Jorge Castillo who had arguably better records than he and/or players from June draft . Looks like a longshot. Witer Jimenez, Widely believed to have started out as Nevri Jimenez awhile back. Widely Thought he falsified age, served a suspension and returned as Witer and a bit older. These guys/This guy plays all the non-battery positions and has put up fairly good numbers. Among those I think will go to GCL, might be top OF candidate, think he’ll play some, depending on the draftees brought in.

          1. Thank you Marfis! Yeah, I´ve read about Witer/Nevri age problems:) anyway I hope he will get change to show us his potencial and skills. When there is going to be given results if someone will be transferred to Williamsport?

            1. Well, the draft is coming up, and then there is a signing period, and I figure the Short Season/Rookie Leagues start up around June 17 or so. Usually a team’s roster will appear when the team is ready to play it’s first game, or even during or after that game. MiLB.com will have transaction before that under the team’s page under transactions. If you mean regarding Latin American players, Venezuela has started and I figure the Dominican will start today or tomorrow or something , so if a player doesn’t start there, they are not likely to be returned after the season starts. There is usually a period before the Short Season Leagues start when Latin American players are specifically transferred to the Stateside teams. It will appear on http://www.milb.com on the League Transactions section on the team page.

  21. why i love this site is someday we can talk about the end of kendrick with the phillies

    1. Blanton never should’ve come off the DL in the first place when everyone knew his elbow still wasn’t right. Worley should still be the fifth starter, and then we wouldn’t have had tonight’s debacle.

  22. Just a thought. They talk about pitchers that pitch to contact. The art of getting batters out by inducing them to hit groundballs to postion players and flyballs to staight away outfielders.

    Now is it possible that the a similar outlook can be applied to hitters learning the craft most notably Singleton. Maybe the told him to remove the power from his game and focus solely on hitting singles to areas of the field ie going with the pitch. Could be a very useful tactic to take with a blue chip prospect with natural power so he learns the craft of hitting without relying on natural ability. To me this theory may show a great amount of forethought. Any thoughts.

  23. Just got back from the Threshers game tonight, best i can say is it was over fast. I think under 2 hours. Utley walked twice and thats about it.

    1. Can’t possibly call up the #4 prospect in baseball who was originally penciled in as the starter in RF before he got injured in ST…can’t do that.

  24. At this point with Brown you have to think they are looking at his service time. We had this discussion on the site before and I think it was determined that if he was brought up sometime before mid-June he would get credit for a year’s worth of service time by the end of this season.

    They certainly don’t have better options in the minors right now. I guess the proof will come if you see the Phillies pronounce Brown ML ready sometime around June 15th..

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