240 thoughts on “Trade Chatter, Week of July 5

  1. Rizzotti for Cliff Lee? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. :)

    Curious what kind of value guys like Worley, Carpenter or Mayberry would have. Like when Castro got Stairs. Is that what guys like Escalona could bring?

  2. I remember when David Wright burst onto the Mets, and one guy said (seriously) why don’t we trade 4 mid to low prospects for him and thought that was fair value.

  3. It would be horrendous to trade any of our good prospects. Emptying out the farm system, AGAIN, would hamper the plans and expectations for the next 4-5 years. The oncoming prospects seem capable of filling in the lineup for 2011 and following.

    Besides, it is time to realize that with Utley now out until August, this team cannot make up that loss; along with Happ’s appearance and effectiveness highly questionable, Blanton’s implosion, Polanco’s uncertain immediate future, Lidge lost, Ruiz off and on the DL, Kendrick unreliable, and the pen full of holes, it is time to spare the system of more losses by trades.

    IMO, it is time to call this season a loss due to injuries mainly and prepare for ’11 the rest of ’10.

    Please…no trades of prospects.

    Rather, bring Brown up in September allowing him to play that month along with playing Francisco steadily for the rest of the season in for both Werth and Ibanez to see just what we have in him pending ’11.

    Also, it is time to bring up Mathieson to see what we have in him preparing for ’11.

  4. I heard the Phillies are looking back to their AAAA team (Cleveland Indians) and are looking at Peralta as insurance for Placido and also looking at Carmona.

  5. I really really hope none of these Lakewood kids get moved. Not just because I think they have a ton of potential, but once theyre in double A their value will be through the roof.

  6. Last year around this time the big club had a 14-1 stretch, including a 10 game win streak and a 22 spot against the Reds. Odds are stacked against this year, but despite our lousy lineup I’m not giving up yet.

    Having said that…I’m not a fan of making a blockbuster trade. Unless they end up sellers. Curious what kind of trade value Victorino has. I have more faith in Francisco producing closer to Vic than Werth.

    They do need to make some small moves, which is why I’m curious what kind of value the lower tier of prospects have.

  7. Might as well make some trades and try to win this year. The albatross of a contract given to howard puts this team in financial purgatory for the rest of the decade.

    Love the people saying no trades. Have you seen the rest of the nl? Its crap. Phils are only 5 games back…not 50. Not sure why everyone is panicking. Lots of baseball left

  8. If they don’t think they can resign Werth, I wonder what kind of trade value he might have.

  9. It’s time to move some veterans off this team if you can.
    Four years in a row of trading your best minor leaguers for experienced help is not acceptable. You can pick at the margins perhaps but this team has too many holes to fill and poor seasons by the likes of the untradeable Ibanez and the free-agent-to-be Werth make trying to fill all of them all but impossible.
    Maybe Worley or Mayberry or both get moved for a third-baseman but that’s about it.

  10. 5 games out in early July. Don’t know if it’s time to move players. I would move Blanton if I could, cause in my opinion we have three fifth starter, in Blanton, Moyer and Kendrick, he has the longer contract for more money, dont think we can move him but would if we could, and use Contrares as a starter.But the catch 22 is our window with Halladay is what three years. Don’t know if Sheve, Colvin or Cosart will be ready in two years. hopefully so. My real question do you trust these owners?????

  11. I doubt Mayberry has much value at his age since he can’t even hit AAA pitching. He’s having an awful year.

  12. Worley might be of some value in a trade but saw only one scout with a radar gun sitting behind home plate at his July 4th start last night. His best pitch was a fastball which topped at 93 mph for a called third strike early in the game. His fastball was sitting at 89-91. His change was mostly at 81 and his curve was mostly at 73 according to the stadium gun.

  13. Well mikemike, after 2011 Lidge and Ibanez’ contracts are off the books so there will be a good amount of money to spend then.

  14. Personally, I’d much rather watch a young, exciting team, like the Rays have had the past few years than an aging, overpaid team like the Yankees most of this past decade. I’m afraid that the decisions that RAJ has made will prevent us from watching that type of team anytime soon.

  15. I think the best player that the Phillies could acquire is sitting in Lehigh Valley right now, hitting about .410.

    This isn’t rocket science. The team needs to take a chance and it needs a shot in the arm. Who better to provide that adrenaline boost than the team’s next stud prospect. The team also needs to look into a middle infielder – a mid-grade prospect ir twi would be fair compensation. If it takes more than that – FUGHETABOUTIT.

  16. As much as we love him, Brown is emphatically NOT the solution to the Phillies problems.

    Asking a 23 year old rookie to save the team’s season is too much, not fair, and likely to blow up in their faces. Is risking 10 years of near-certain production worth one half-season that could destroy all that? I say no. Promote him when the team is doing well and he isn’t expected to put the team on his back.

    Remember Gavin Floyd?

  17. As an addendum, I think the Phillies best plan for this year is to stand pat until about a week before the trade deadline. If they’re still in it at that point, go out and get a utility infielder on the cheap. They do not need pitching. That would be the only trade to make now. They can’t afford to empty the system again for a frontline player, not given the age and salary demands of this team going forward.

    If they’re out of it, they need to at least entertain offers for Werth. If a bidding war escalates and some major prospects are offered, trading him could be an option. This is unlikely. Durbin and Contreras should garner some offers as well.

    If they can get someone to take Ibanez off their hands after the season and pick up about half his contract, Brown can move into the outfield with Francisco and Mayberry. The money freed up by moving Ibanez could go for a deal for Werth.

  18. While I agree that trading the farm away for a would be rental would not be in the Phills best interest, I think everyone doesn’t understand that the major league team needs reinforcements. I would trade for some middle infielder but not if it costs me any top tier prospect. For example I wouldn’t trade away Gose for Wiggington.

    The MLB club is really struggling and they need a boost. Dobbs is just awful anymore. And while I’ll always love his 2008 production, he is what he is and at best he’s a good bench player. The Phills need better than that, even to just stay above .500. I think a trade for an infield bat is in order. I like Lopez from the M’s and Wiggington at the right price from the O’s. Kelly Johnson would be a nice pickup as well for helping the lineup.

    As it stands, this lineup is flat.

  19. Am I alone in my mindset? The major league team is struggling, so… my mindset is to abandon the season, strengthen the farm system, and focus on next year. Give people plenty of time for surgery or time off. Begin extremely preliminary negotiations with Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth, or whoever else will be free agents. Trade Jayson Werth (no reason why you can’t sign him in the offseason. If he has a soft spot for Philly, he’ll have the same soft spot in the offseason.)

    Strengthen the team that way!! Not keep whipping a lying horse and insist it start. ALSO, when we are losing games 1-0 or 2-0, or our bullpen is what loses games for us, how is CLIFF LEE the answer?

  20. Its not totally ridiculous to bring up Dom Brown. Sure, he’s 23 but he’s been dominant across AA and AAA so far this season and he’s likely the consensus #1 prospect in baseball at this point.

    Hell, Dick Allen was 21 when he won Rookie of the Year in ’64. Despite the team collapse, he pretty much was the offense in the final two months of that season.

    I’m not saying Brown is the same caliber of player as Dick Allen (borderline HoF) as he’s not but saying his age is an impediment to the pressure isn’t quite accurate.

  21. Find a team who needs a power hitting right hander to contend for the WS this year (Werth) and has the money to afford to take a huge salary off our hands (Ibanez).

  22. I don’t think it wrong to bring up Brown— just to expect him to spur the team on to victory. Those are lofty, unrealistic expectations that will likely blow up in everyone’s face. Let his promotion coincide with some other moves that signal looking forward to next season and beyond. I vote the team trade marginal talent for some infield depth ASAP and if July 31st roles around and a division title seems unlikely, deal whoever you can for the best young talent you can find. They wouldn’t even need to target the major league ready variety– some young players to bring up with the A ball crop that we have would be awesome.

    And who knows, I remember just a few seasons ago trading away Abreu and Lidle for nothing and somehow making the team better.

    The team caught some real bad luck this season– it happens.

  23. Nobody is putting the whole season on Brown’s shoulders. I am just looking for someone who will be better than Ibanez and who could kick-start the team. We need a catalyst.

    As for ruining Brown, I hardly think so. He’s been fully groomed in the minors and he is truly ready for major league baseball – seriously, what else is there left for him to prove in the minors? The Gavin Floyd analogy, while I’m sure it is well-intentioned, has no apparent application to this situation. Floyd, at the time, was a player who had never really proven himself in the minors and was really struggling with his stuff. He also was clearly afraid of big league baseball, and, in particular, the Philadelphia media spotlight (I have never, in my life, seen a major league player look so completely paralyzed with fear – you could see it on his face). By comparison, everyone says that Brown is level-headed and, in fact, he states openly that he is motivated by criticism. Although there is no crystal ball for us to devine the future, all signs point to Brown being able to handle things just fine if and when he is promoted.

  24. The Phils need to try and get something for guys like Romero, Conteras, Gload and Durbin. Their value may be diminished some but they can be good depth for contenders. Even if the Phils manage to hang in the race I don’t think they will be able to turn it on as the have the past few years.

  25. Dom Brown is just brutalizing the International League so far.

    9 game hitting streak BTW.

    Honestly, if he keeps this up for another couple weeks, they should bring him up, bench Ibanez and play him everyday. The team needs a youthful injection like him. Its not as if he’d be batting 4th so the pressure wouldn’t be ridiculous I dont think.

  26. This thread is asanine. The Phils are 4 games out of first place with half the season left to play.

    The goal is to win championships, not collect prospects. People here fall in love with these average prospects (mayberry and carpenter are perfect examples…neither guy is a MLB contributor to a championship caliber team) and lose sight of the ultimate goal, which is for the phillies to win.

    They lost their best player for 2 months and they could use an upgrade in the rotation. They should be able to get some infield help for a marginal prospect. I’d also like to see them go after Ted Lilly (free agent after the year…shouldn’t cost much).

    If Haren is available (I don’t think he will be dealt due to the Ariz mgmt debacle and his favorable contract), the phils should try to get him.

    I’d love to see them get rid of ibanez in a salary dump trade (like gillick did with abreu) and go with a brown/francisco platoon. this will never happen though…it’s a pipe dream.

    People here need to chill. 4 games out. 81 games left

  27. Lilly projects as a Type A and he’s having a pretty good year. I doubt he’d be “cheap”.

    Haren…we dont have the prospects (not named Brown) to get him. The DBacks (especially their new GM/Manager) wont take a handful of high risk/high reward Low A guys and that’s all we really have to offer. Nobody in our upper minors is worth anything tradewise. (excluding Dom Brown)

    No one would take Ibanez…definitely a pipe dream.

  28. NEPP,
    I agree with you, but I’d hate to be the GM a couple years from now who turned down Colvin, Cosart or Singleton.

  29. I’d hate to be the GM a couple years from now who traded away Colvin, Cosart and Singleton.

  30. The problem with them is that they are so far away.

    Despite their prodigious raw ability the odds are against Colvin and Cosart EVER making to the Majors, let alone being good players. Singleton, being a position player, has a better chance as the injury rate is far lower but even he has a very high bar to reach as a 1B or LF (maybe) prospect.

  31. I wasn’t insuating the cubs are going to give Lilly away, but he could be acquired for a couple of low level or a mid level prospect. He’s attainable.

    Another thing to consider is that the 2011 draft class is supposed to be among the best of the last 20 years. If the phils do let werth walk after the season they could get more via the draft than they would in a trade.

    like I said, to even consider trading werth at this point is absurd

  32. Not only would it put too great expectations on Brown’s shoulders to bring him up with the indication he is to save the team….

    but also, if they bring him up before Sept he will gain a year of his free agent availability which is not management’s favorite way to put financial pressure on itself one year early.

    Bringing him up in Sept does not credit him with that year toward free agency.

    Before then Francisco should be playing consistently for all outfield positions to see if he will be a significant part of the team in ’11.

  33. Save the prospects for pitching. Take Miguel Tejada’s contract off the Orioles’ hands and you probably don’t have to give any prospects. He’s not a great 3b but anybody is better than that butcher, Dobbs. Tejada at third and Polanco at second makes the lineup look a lot better.
    The only untouchable players should be Brown and Cosart, but I would have to be blown away for Singleton and Colvin.
    I would try to see what pitcher is available for Gose, May, Ramirez, Kendrick and Rizzotti.

  34. ****what kinda trade value does matt rizzotti or austin hyatt have****

    Throw-in player in a multi-prospect deal. Neither has any real value in a trade by themselves.

  35. First we need a guy who can pitch the eight and ninth every day. Oh He also has to be a lead off hitter. And he has to play second and third at the same time. He has to also be an assistant manager.
    Face it too many holes .

  36. cant throw away this season.

    Brown is not the answer, the outfield has been exceptable – maybe not outstanding like last year but the Phils dont want to start his free agency clock this year. He will likely get that Sept call up but not likely before then. Werth may just get resigned this year and if he does then Ibanez will likely get traded to make room for Brown. Fransicisco should get regular playing time now subbing in each OF spot on a regular basis or maybe a platoon with Ibanez.

  37. In my opinion, if we can’t get anything for Rizzotti, he is worth hanging on to. Either this high-average, newfound power isn’t a “fluke,” and his trade value goes up next year (or value to Phillies), or he comes back down to earth and we miss out trading him for a bag pf peanuts. Seems like a no-brainer to me

    4/5 tonight, batting .366

    11 HR and 40 RBI in 48 games at Reading

    Leads Reading (this includes DB’s stats) in SLG, Avg, OPS, and OBP.

    Yes, I know he is DHing, slow, etc. etc.

  38. Abreu had more trade value at that time then ibanez has now. I would not trade for any pitching unless its for a LH reliever. We need some MI depth like a wiggington. I would not be against trading gillies (if he has any value left, which i think he does) for him might have to throw in a rizz type player as well. BTW early reports are Lee has been traded to the twins.

  39. Utley26 -

    The phillies goal is not just “to win championships”. That was made clear by the Lee trade after back-to-back WS appearances. Like it or not (and I hate it), the deal was indeed made to collect prospects.

    To go back now and trade a significant package (which is what it would take) for a top arm like Haren would make no sense based on Amaro’s actions thus far. And Lilly, although cheaper, wouldn’t be cheap either. Nobody wants a couple of Mayberry’s in return for a good major league SP like Lilly.

  40. Just don’t call Brown up before Thursday. Finally got tix for Wednesday. :) All these firework night games have been sellouts. Saw him with Reading during the exhibition game before the season. Really excited.

    I have no worries about him feeling pressured. If he continues to destroy AAA, I think you have to bring him up in August. You have to put your best players on the field. The kid will be a difference maker eventually. I don’t think you ruin him if he struggles. He has a good head on him. There are no guarantees, but this kid is a stud. His AAA homers have not been cheap ones.

  41. I agree with “Utley26″….dump Ibanez and go with a Fransisco/Brown platoon. Dumping Ibanez will be hard so I’d even swap him for another bad/high contract that can be an upgrade somewhere. Something needs to be done. We have 4 hitters in the lineup right now (Rollins, Vic, Werth and Howard)…the rest of the lineup reminds me of the Bell, Lieberthal, pitcher black hole…

  42. I am very hard on the phillies, but how many teams could lose two allstar everyday players, starting catcher a starting pitcher, bullpen arms and still be over 500, if we could move ibanez, and bring up brown it would help us see if this kid is the real deal. and make next season adjustments a little easier. and how much difference would he be than what ibanez gives us, I know he is faster, at least a equal a outfielder, and more or egual power

  43. At this time of year teams are looking for UPGRADES not struggling 37 year old hitters will a BIG contract. Face it Ibanez has NEGATIVE VALUE hes not going any where this year.

    The only trade value we have is Werth who if made available will be the hottest bat on the market. Moyer who is pitching very well, but I would ask him if he would accept a trade. Maybe even Contreras has trade value.

  44. Olney says he could see the Phillies “trading Jayson Werth while contending.” He says we could trade him for controllable players that could help us in 10′ and beyond. I’m not quite sure who he suggests we could aquire for Werth that could help us this year and beyond.

  45. Don’t trade Brown. If they need and offensive boost bring up Brown, as many have mentioned, and bench Ibanez. Start him out in a LF platoon with Francisco, with the lefty-hitting Brown getting the bulk of the starts.

    All my friends who loved shouting ‘Raaauuuuuuuull!’ last year still won’t listen to me. I told them he was a bad sign 18 months ago!

  46. Trading away Werth while the Phillies were contending would be highly unusual. I can’t recall that ever happening.

  47. Trade Werth if they take Raul and money to an AL team.Ok but I can dream can’t I. Throw in Blanton lol

  48. I wouldn’t make a panic trade at this point but I would shake things up a bit starting with promoting Brown.

    I would see if I could entice a team to take Ibanez if I included a prospect or took back a perceived bad contract of theirs. Not that I would do this but the Cubs would have to consider an Ibanez for Zambrano deal even if you asked them to pick up a good portion of his contract.

    As bad as the offense has been it will still come down to not having enough pitching. I don”t think I’ll ever get over the Lee deal.

  49. RODEO JONES without ibanez we dont go to the world series last year. He carried this team for the first half, now is done, we have to have the owners eat some of the money he is owed and move him. They paid him three years thirty million, I believe. How much is a world series appearance worth??

  50. Zambrano’s contract I think is still for 3 more years. He has skills but he is highly volatile and that crap won’t fly in our clubhouse. The Cubs would do cartwheels if they can get trade Z for Ibanez.

  51. Well We can also cartwheel get one year money from the cub.
    Make Z the closer and regift him. At least there is a chance even if you have to throw in the cubs money and a little more.
    Try Ed wade he likes a bargain.

  52. This year call for a little nonstraightline thinking . Hey a new word.

    mikemike That is a tired line. Believe it or not there are other outfielders . I love Raul but Charlie did and does now overplay him.

  53. Zambrano stinks, I wouldn’t do that deal and the cubs wouldn’t either. Why do they need a 38 yr old OF who isn’t hitting with a 10 million dollar contract due for next yr as well. Speaking of the cubs did anyone read what Scott Rolen said about the cubs not being able to win? Pretty interesting.

  54. The Cubs would do that deal just to get rid of his antics and contract. I don’t think the Phillies would do that deal because he’s a cancer.

  55. I think trading Ibanez would be a mistake. The Phils are struggling but still very much in the race. Same with D. Brown-certainly a September callup but there’s no need to rush him.

  56. Living in the Chicago area let me strongly say-the last thing the Phils need is Zambrano!!!!!!

  57. Trading Ibanez wouldn’t be a mistake. It would be a miracle.
    Are there any 11million dollar Infielders with 1 year left, available?

  58. There is NO PLAYER in the MLB that Brown will be traded for, NONE. IMHO we wont trade any of our top prospects that would just be plain old stupid on Amaro’s part. Why in the world trade Lee to help bolster the minors then turn around and trade away better players for band aids?

  59. Any chance the Phils call up Dom on like August 30-31 just incase he has a hot month and they can include him on the playoff roster?

  60. Even if they don’t get him on the 25 man by Aug 31st, there are plenty of loopholes to get him on a playoff roster if need be.

  61. I can see the Phils calling up Brown on September 1. Just in time for the final push, and that’s if the Phils are 5 or less games back and are hitting. Maybe Brown would be another big gun right out of the gate and take Ibanez’ job.

  62. Ibanez isn’t going anywhere (unfortunately). Just another great amaro signing (wait until howard is 36-37).

    JT, the phils goal is still to win. they just try to do it with a set budget. I don’t believe the organization’s spin that the Lee trade was made to ‘restock the farm system’. that is BS. They traded Lee because they wanted to keep their payroll under a pre-set threshold. Once they acquired halladay, the owners forced amaro to move Lee. The worst part about all of this is that amaro sold Lee for 50 cents on the dollar. That will go down as one of the worst trades in phillies history.

    please stop discussing trading werth. 4 games out, 81 left to play. werth isn’t going anywhere (and he shouldn’t)

  63. The thing about the lee trade that maybe someone can tell me is, did amaro do this trade without gillick advice????

  64. Amaro is probably hoping that Lee gets traded to the Twins, whom we won’t be playing against or contending with unless both teams reach the world series.

  65. The Domonic Brown business reminds me in some ways of 1951, when the Giants sent a scout to Minneappolis to see if they should bring up Willie Mays. The Scouts report: “You are wasting the best player in baseball in AAA.” The Giants response: “You mean the best player in the minor leagues.” The scout responded: “No, I mean in alll of baseball.” Does anyone think that any of the players on the phillies current roster could go down to AAA and do what Brown has done there?

  66. *****Does anyone think that any of the players on the phillies current roster could go down to AAA and do what Brown has done there?****

    Yes.

  67. It astonishing to me how much perspective people lose in such a short amount of time in sports. Spending basically 1 full season in 1st place with no competition really made people forget what it was like to be a few games back of the Mets with less than a month to play and overcoming it. And we’re just 4 back BEFORE THE ALL-STAR BREAK. Are you kidding me?? I know nobody forgets that epic comeback, but they seem to only remember the feeling of winning the division (…then the WS …then the NL again) and not what it feels like to be in 2nd or 3rd, let alone the glory days under Bowa.

    Even with the competition in the division this year, it doesnt take 5 aces and 8 .300 hitters to make the playoffs. We already have the hard part down with 6! quality starters. With the exception of some blow ups mainly by Blanton so far, which happen to every pitcher multiple times every year (some worse than others), our starters give the team a chance to win night in and night out. And yes, the shutouts and injuries are frustrating, but you can never count this team out. Every Phillies fan knows how much heart this team has. And the summer is just kicking into full gear now, which means its about time for the team to kick it up a gear. And by the way, Howard has carried the offense on his own multiple times, starting in 06 after Abreu and co got sent off in a scenario you guys are asking for right now.

    We have more than a few holes, but its not like theyre gaping holes. We can spare a mid level prospect for an IF that can field 2B and 3B average-above average and hit a lick more than Dobbs. Thats not asking for much. Theres literally a guy like that on 90% of MLB rosters. Thats the minimum I think to help weather the injury storm. Anybody remember Tadahito? Every team can always use more pitching, but we essentially pick an arm up for free whenever Madson comes off the DL. The bullpen guys all have specific roles and most deserve the spots from their performace. And the guys that maybe dont have the bigger contracts (Baez and Lidge, although Lidge has looked really good at times) The rotation is basically the same as the past few years, except for a certain guy named ROY HALLADAY. We’re more than fine in that department. Maybe not quite as strong as the Braves, but who cares. Its close.

    /end rant

  68. oh god, now Brown is Willie Mays! Will the madness ever end?

    And yes, the Phillies have several players who could go down to AAA and put up equally impressive numbers.

  69. For some perspective. The phillies currently have a bench player on their roster who put up the following line in AAA in over 230 ABs.

    .364/15/45 with an OBP of .415 and OPS of 1.073..

  70. If this was madden fantasy GM, and I was in the phils situation, I would trade Werth for prospects, trade prospects for a top pitcher(Cliff Lee, Dan Haren,etc…) and then trade some average prospects for Miguel Tejada who is on the trading block and can platoon at third and second with Wilson Valdez and bring up Brown to play RF.

    I highly doubt the phils will do this because I believe there is some clause in Browns contract that makes them pay brown more money if he is brought up sooner, or something about arbitration, but nonetheless, it would still be a smart move.

    Werth only has a 1/2 year left on his contract, and the phils wont re-sign him so he could be like the Jim Thome of 5 years ago and Brown could be like Howard.

  71. AAA numbers:

    Howard: 1.157 OPS in 257 PA
    Utley: .868 OPS in 1168 PA (ridiculous, huh?…what a freaking waste of almost 2 seasons)
    Vic: .912 OPS in 559 PAs

  72. I would look to move Werth, this team does not offer arbitration to guys, so we should not even think about getting draft picks for him. If we can get a 3rd baseman or catching prospect who is a AA or AAA player we should jump on it. I would also deal Ibanez even if we have to eat half of whats left on his contract. Put Brown in Right Field and have Fransico and Gload platoon in right field. I believe both guys will be better if they play more regularly which will help our bench.

  73. 3up, I never said that Brown was Willie Mays. But he is at least the best player in the minor leagues. I don’t know who this bench player is, but I am going to guess that Brown is a better fielder than he is. Meanwhile, no one has yet named a player on the phillies that could hit .400, even in AAA. Maybe Polanco, but he doesn’t bring much power. No one else is even hitting .300. NEPP, I will give you Ryan Howard, but doesn’t that make the argument stronger? Brown’s current OPS is 1.197 at LHV with an OBP of .435.

  74. Love brown, but sifpa you can’t take a small sample at triple a and ask those question,The question you should be asking is can ibanez put up better numbers then brown in the majors?

  75. SIFPA Ben Francisco won a batting title in triple A. Brown hasnt even been in triple A for 2 weeks, hes not going to hit .400.

  76. **** Brown’s current OPS is 1.197 at LHV with an OBP of .435.****

    In what? 50 PA? Sample size applies here.

  77. Well bob, that’s why I said fantasy GM.

    They might as well trade Werth now because the phils are going to get out bid by the yankees or the red sox next year, and they have a prospect in triple-a who plays werths position, and is tearing it up.

    Another good starting pitcher could really put this team back to being WS contenders, and Tejada would be a great hitter at CBP and wouldn’t cost much.

    If they can’t do that, then I would try to find a better closer, because Lidge sucks.

  78. Polanco should be back soon and he can fill in at second for the next 6 to 8 weeks then play your hot hand at 3B out of Valdez Ransom and Dobbs.

    No disresect to Raul I appreciate what he did the 1st half of last season but since then he’s been average at best. I’d rather watch an exciting 22 year old start on his MLB journey….as a payin customer I’m just sayin. Hell we cut ties with Jenkins when it was apparent he lost his ability to perform at a consitent level.

    I mention the Zambrano deal as a hypothetical means of being creative. The fact remains if you get into the playoffs after Roy who do you have a lot of confidence in as your #2 and #3? The Giants appear to be sellers is Matt Cain available…I don’t know but they are looking to get younger so maybe Singleton can get you a pitcher of that ilk maybe not but you and I will never know because we’re not privy to those conversations. Who ever thought Aumont Gillies and Ramirez would get you Cliff Lee?

    If the line up is hitting the cover off the ball I guess it doesn’t matter but last year at this time we made the move for Lee so essentially we had Lee Hamels and that wasn’t enough. So to the optimist what makes you think Halladay Hamels will be enough?

  79. I agree that it is a very small sample size and that probably no one could keep it up. However, Brown is hot right now and the Phillies outfield bats are not. The best BA among all current Phillies outfielders is Werth’s .286 and after that it is Victorino at .252 (.768 OPS). So what do we have to lose? Meanwhile, he is on a bad team that could ultimately have a bad effect on him if he stays too long. Of course if he is brought up he has to play, but my point about Willie Mays was not meant to say that Brown was going to be Willie Mays, but rather that it is time to stop wasting him at LHV.

  80. Max, Werth is more than signable, but not if we start adding old overpriced players. Also Brown is another left handed bat. Werth is the only right handed power bat separating our top hitters. All teams would have to do is just line up a left handed pitcher decimating Ryan Howard and making Ibanez’ look even worse than he is now.

  81. It’s not a matter of how signable he is, after re-signing Howard to that huge deal, the phillies don’t have the money to pay Werth the kind of money he would get in New York or Boston.

    As for the right-handed bat controversy, you have a good point and I have heard it brought up before, but Tejada and Polanco are both right handed bats, and although they don’t exactly bring too much power to the table like Werth did, they can still bat in the middle of the lineup

  82. Max theres an article written up on here that explains the economics behind signing Werth. Point being you can back load contracts. Its not necessarily smart in all cases. After next off season Ibanez’ & Lidges’ contracts come off the books freeing up about 30 million or maybe more yearly.

  83. The one thing I will never understand about the entire Cliff Lee trade, is why the Phillies couldn’t wait until now to trade him.

    None of the prospects the Phillies got from the Mariners for Lee aren’t nearly as good as some of the prospects I’ve heard have been offered for Lee now, they would have Lee for half of the year, and chances are the Phillies record would be better.

  84. not sure what’s dumber…the thought of trading werth or the thought of trading for zambrano.

    come on people, you’re better than this

  85. You just made a huge investment in Ryan Howard, and you need to protect that investment with a top right handed bat behind him even if it means you go over budget by a few million for 1 year.

  86. I think it would be foolish to trade Werth while in contention. He’s a type A free agent and we can get two high picks for him. It is not worth signing him because we cannot tie up more money to veterans. Werth is a great player, but he is 31 and Brown is only 22 and very cheap. If no one else is noticing, Francsco has potential. If Francisco were given consistent playing time, he could put up great numbers and be the next right handed bat in the 5 or 6 hole. Give Ibanez the Jenkins treatment as a platoon with Francisco and let Francisco gradually take over left field.

  87. Another possibility is trading for Uggla or Cantu from the Marlins because apparently the Marlins are trying to unload some of their players and they both hit for good power.

  88. I don’t see much potential in Francisco, he’s almost 29 years old and I highly doubt the phillies will turn Ibanez into a utility player because he’s getting paid too much.

  89. I don’t want to speak too soon, but it’s the Florida Marlins, not the Mets or the Braves, they’re not exactly a huge threat to the NL East as of now.

  90. why would the phils want uggla or cantu?

    polanco and utley are coming back and there’s no where to play all four of those guys.

    francisco gives the phils better all around play than ibanez. they should be platooning

    some of these comments are hilarious

  91. Francisco was starting in Cleveland when w got him. Werth didn’t start until he was 29 Max. There is no reason Francisco can’t be that guy. Whenever he starts, he puts the bat on the ball and is a good player.

  92. How does next off-season have any relevance to if the Phillies can sign Jayson Werth for this off-season?

  93. It’s one thing to be trading average players, it’s entirely another to be trading high level prospects, which is what it will take to get Uggla and Cantu. Not to mention that both these guys are too good to sit on the bench when Utley and Polanco come back.

  94. Max, in my opinion, the sudden trade of Cliff Lee was due to Amaro’s fear that keeping Lee would put him in a very difficult position. Once people got used to the idea of Halladay and Lee (and Hamels) in the rotation, trading Lee, especially if the Phillies were in a race,would be untenable and signing him would require spending much more money than Amaro wanted to. Perhaps he didn’t realize how upset people would be anyway. Ironically, if Lee fetches more now (for less than half a season) than when we traded him with a full season left on his contract, it will show that Amaro miscalculated his value. In addition, if the Mets sign Lee, Amaro’s decision will look even worse.

  95. Max read the article please.

    You can back load money. Losing Werth because of not having money for 1 year is dumb.

  96. The M’s have the ability to trade him to any team that wants him.

    The Phillies were not going to trade him to an NL team that could be a challenger, nor to an AL team that they could meet in the World Series. According to Ken Rosenthal, they talked to the Yankees, but (allegedly) asked for Montero+. The thought of the Phillies losing the WS to the Yanks, then trading Lee to the Yanks would’ve made Philadelphia explode with anger. Therefore, the Phils asked for way to much to see if it would work. It should be no surprise the Phils sent him to AL team furthest away from Philly, and one who’s farm system the Phillies knew much about.

  97. Gonna reply to an early comment, which advocateda “win now” trade, premised in part upon the Howard contract (along the lines of “this may be our last chance to win given how bad the Howard contract is.”)

    Since I have advocated “win now” type trades in the past, and don’t like the Howard contract, you might think I would agree. I don’t. Even setting aside the fact that I think that (most likely) we have too many injuries this year to win even with a “win now” trade, the Howard contract, even if one believes it is horrible, is a reason NOT to trade away prospects:

    (1) Even if you think that Howard is destined to decline rapidly (I don’t, though he will decline significantly over his contract), his contract won’t stop the Phillies from being competitive. Even if he returns no value at all, and thus the 25 million dollar contract is a complete waste, the remaining payroll is still well above average & enough to be competitive.

    (2) However, given the effects of the Howard contract, money will be tight – and winning will require some “bargain” players. And under the current system, “bargain” players are pre-FA, pre or early arb players. Which means we need significant help from the farm system over the next couple of years.

    That doesn’t mean that (under the right circumstances) you can’t make a “win now” type trade, but it DOES mean that we need to be extra careful about those deals. With Utley on the shelf, on top of everything else, I wouldn’t even consider trading any of our top 3 prospects, and probably wouldn’t trade any top 10 prospects. This year, anyway.

  98. That’s why I’d rather move Victorino. I think Francisco can produce similar to Vic with more playing time. Don’t think he can come close to Werth’s production.

    Not saying I make that move during season. Hopefully Raul and Vic pick it up. Can you package both and make it easier to dump Raul? You’d still have to eat a chunk of Raul’s salary. Vic’s contract could be attractive to teams.

    Too bad it’s not the NBA. Ibanez and Lidge’s expiring contracts in 2011 would have value.

  99. Godofwar, take a close look at Werth’s and Victorino’s production this year. The main difference is that Werth gets more walks.

  100. SIFPA – I swear I’m not picking on you today, but Werth vs. Vic – it’s not just about the walks (2010 stats)

    Werth – OPS+ of 138
    .286/.371/.531

    Vic – OPS+ of 103
    .252/.322/.446

  101. Vic has a .768 OPS, Werth has a .902 OPS. Francisco’s career OPS is .767.

    Jayson also has a huge difference in slugging pct. over Shane. Vic’s only advantage is more speed than Jayson and Ben.

  102. Wildcat, don’t worry. My goal is to be provocative and stimulate some discussion. I was talking about this year; not career. So far this year, Victorino has hit more like Werth, increasing power and decreasing average. He has only one less hr than Werth, albeit in more plate appearances. If he gets his left-handed hitting straightened out, who knows?

  103. Bedrosian’s Beard
    Please steip back a little because what you said is Lee was too good for the Phils to trade to a contender but not good enough to keep. EH
    Some else a while ago said they had to sign Blanton because no one would accept him in a trade???
    Good thing Aristole isn.t around.

    Two more games to show they have a pulse then we can talk about trades.

  104. Keep reading about Mathieson being traded. He was brought up, allowed two weak ground ball hits and hit 99 then sent down because of Ruiz being hurt. He needs a fair chance before shipping him put. Brown looks like the real deal but a few more ab’s in AAA isnt going to hurt him. Not bad having that kind of insurance in AAA. Guy who is throwing 100 and a potential impact outfielder
    Trades at this point are not the answer/

  105. Mathieson needs to develop his secondary pitch, whatever it is. No matter how hard he throws, if the batters know a fastball is coming, they can square it up

  106. I love Mathieson as much as anyone. Don’t think his “audition” was fair, but I understand why they would consider trading him. Fastball doesn’t move and the injury history. Hope he gets another shot here.

    The team needs to develop cheap relievers. It’s an expensive pen. Like $28 million? Not sure how that compares. Seems high considering results and injuries.

  107. I honestly think the Phils are going to trade Werth this month whether they are contending or not. Amaro’s quotes always seem to say that.

    Not happy for multiple reasons. Seems like Ruben really wants to add pitching. A trade to Boston for like Bard and others or worse yet straight up for Papelbon or somehow involving Lowell too.

    This is a topic for wild rumors so don’t shoot me. If they did something like this I’d shoot myself.

  108. With how screwed up the draft is these days with 4th rounders getting 1st round money (just an example, don’t anyone try and look that up!), is getting the comp picks for Werth even as big of a deal as it used to be?

  109. In my opinion the only thing that this team really needs, is for the bullpen to step up and do their job.

  110. In my opinion the only thing that this team really needs, is for the bullpen to step up and do their job. The offense will get eventually get on a roll, and key injured guys should be getting back soon.

  111. Matt – To me no. Mostly because I don’t think the Phils would maximize the extra picks.

    Might be a little bitter since I was just looking at GCL and NYP stats and blah. Nothing too exciting early on. I know it’s way too early to judge.

    BTW, can ya tell it’s too hot for me? I’m commenting way too much. Get to see Domonic Brown and Chooch tomorrow though. Yay!

  112. I honest to god if Ibanez starts to hit which he is starting to show we’ll be fine. He has absolutely been killing us.

  113. Looks like phillies are interested in ben sheets

    He’d cost MUCH LESS than Lee, oswalt, etc. Since he’d be a 2-3 month rental. Apparently healthy again has made every start in 2010 so far. Was throwing 94-95 mph vs yankees last night. Remember phillies ripping off the A’s in the blanton deal, it could happen again.

    http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/06/trade-buzz-tigers-relief-lee-oswalt/

    AolFanhouse
    • Charlie Kerfeld, one of the Phillies’ top special assignment scouts, was at Ben Sheets’ start against the Yankees in Oakland on Monday night. The Phillies are likely considering Sheets for the back of their rotation. Although GM Billy Beane has said he’d be inclined to keep Sheets because of the influence he’s had on the young pitchers, Beane may not be able to resist the opportunity to get one or two hitting prospects, which the A’s lack. The A’s would probably pick up some of Sheets’ salary for the right prospects. — Jeff Fletcher

  114. Garcia wasnt in the lineup tonight…. night off or is he finally getting called up to reading?

  115. Beane would probably take a bag of baseballs for Sheets. His contract is huge and hes been awful.

  116. Justin DeFratus said on his facebook he has been promoted to double-a. i wonder if he’s trade bait.

  117. mlb funny you cant be serious. Phillies rip off a for blanton, fat joe is a fifth starter at best, the jury is out on the kids we gave up, but I will bet you all three of those kids make the majors, cardenas is going to be in the big leagues, spencer is with the cubs and is showing average and power, outman before he got hurt was pitching better than fat joe.

  118. mikemike…funny how “the jury is still out on the kids we gave up” for Blanton (who helped us get to a World Series) but the three kids we got for Lee stink after half a season. Interesting way of looking at things.

  119. Honestly, absent some entirely unexpected set of circumstances, it is difficult for me to conceive how trading Jayson Werth is a good thing for this team.

    Regardless of Ruben’s statements, the primary strength of this team for the last 4 years has been hitting – the ability to score runs . . . a lot of runs. If the team has decided that Brown is ready, the goal should be to team Brown in outfield with Victorino and Werth for the remainder of the season. Ibanez will still get playing time if the team is creative about moving Brown to left and right and allowing Werth to occasionally replace Victorino in center. But getting rid of a main cog in your offense is not a good way to get better for a postseason run. This, of course, assumes that the team is not giving up on the season and, frankly, why should it? They are still in the middle of the race.

    But what if the Werth trade is motivated by a desire to restock the farm system and make the team stronger for the future? Well, to begin, I don’t agree with that strategy. It works at cross-purposes with the notion that this team is built to win now. Furthermore, why would the team take another huge public relations hit after the Lee debacle? It’s a bizarre strategy for this team. But assuming that they do go in this direction, it would seem to me that they are much more likely to get significant value by offering Werth arbitration and getting compensatory picks – this way they get to eat their cake (have Werth for a postseason run this year) and have it too (get picks to restock the system). Of course, it really depends what other teams are offering, something we do not and cannot know. But, still, it would have to be an awfully strong package of prospects for them to get reasonable value in return while weaknening themselves for the rest of the year.

  120. D. Brown- either Brown is fit to go to MLB and play as a regular or he should stay in the AAA. Not seeing any platoon with Francisco until ready stuff. I say Brown can play RF as a regular now, and he is the only acceptable substitute for an MLB regular. Brown can play RF and Francisco can work in in LF when the line-up is too Left-Handed or Ibanez does not hit well. Contrary to what some wish to believe Ibanez has outperformed the big boys in the line-up lately and that includes Werth.

    Ibanez- even if Ibanez should be the right choice for replacement the contract precludes it for a rational move. The contract was backloaded , paying 6 1/2 million for the first year which was under market value, and going to 11 1/2 this season and next. A team potentially absorbing that contract would not benefit from the 1st year and likely would not consider the level of production worthy of 11 1/2 million rate for a year and a half. A trade would not bring even half of the salary removed, and a trade would likely result in Philly paying the whole contract less the minimum salary.

    So paying the virtual entire Ibanez contract this season and next is Philly’s destiny , more or less, and adding Werth to the guantanteed $140 million payroll just for the players under contract next season, plus they will need to replace the likely expiring contracts of 3 relief pitchers and a needed upgrade for a couple of starters should they wish to contend again. Plus , if they wish to add a big money starter before the deadline that might bump up next season’s projected payroll on the high side up to the $180 million a year area, which is approaching New York Yankees territory, and given the team’s stated preference to keep the payroll in the 140 million range, might be considered unlikely.

    So that leaves the projected trade of Werth, and media sources have talked of a moving of Victorino. Neither have performed that greatly for recent times nor for the season.
    They should both pull a fairly good return however. I would not see this as waving the white flag, however, and the OF could not be appreciably weakened by the trade of one or both.
    Werth-less line-up Brown in RF, Victorino in CF, Francisco in LF working in with Ibanez, Victorino-less line-up , Brown in RF, Werth in CF, and Francisco working in with Ibanez in LF. Victorino-less and Werth-less line-up—-Brown in RF, Francisco in CF, and Mayberry working in with Ibanez in LF.

    Considering the trade of Werth and/or Ibanez would likely pull one or two starting pitchers and/or relievers and one capable Infielders/Outfielders without an appreciable decline in the OF, it could be a smart move. Additionallly , moving Francisco also in the moving of Werth and/or Victorino they could bring in a hot shot 3B type who could move to LF to work in with Ibanez when the IF’s return. Don’t know if such a player exists or is available, but that return in addition to the pitching upgrades, it should be strongly be considered.

  121. Amaro’s comments are nothing more than what many of us suspected and that is to be able to sign Werth, someone (Victorino) on the roster making money has to go. I predict they’ll trade Victorino and a marginal prospect like Matheson to the Orioles for Guthrie and Tejada (on a one year deal). Then they’ll announce that they’re resigning Werth and moving him to CF and promoting Dom to play every day. Polanco will play 2B until Chase comes back around Sept 1.

  122. I see Baltimore as having 3 top of the line young OF’s and neither they nor Victorino as a good DH candidate. Tejada still pulls alot of money in his last year and if Philly was willing to pay it all they could get him for next to nothing. The more they want Baltimore to pick up, then they have to fork over prospects, maybe a good one for each million. It is debatable if Guthrie is better than what they currently have.

  123. 2 things…

    1 – it’s a waste of time to put any worth into what amaro or any other GMs say. It does them no good whatsoever to openly admit their intentions (doing so puts them in a position of weakness). 99% of what they say should be taken with a grain of salt.

    2 – I don’t want to see werth or francisco playing CF for any period of time longer than 1 game. Personally I think werth’s defense is vastly overrated. Him in CF for any prolonged period of time would be a disaster (see his attempt to catch the ball in cincinnati last week that cost the phils and halladay a win)

  124. If a guy off the MLB roster gets dealt it will be Shane not worth. Worth will move to center and brown will play right. Francisco can spell brown against tuff lefties.

  125. Victorino will not be traded either – the team values its defense up the middle, as it should. We are much weaker, defensively, without Victorino and, if Rollins gets injured again (always possible), who gets on and steals bases and scores runs without Victorino? Nope, a trade of Victorino would not work.

  126. Greg difference is this my friend. Cardenas, is a better prospect than any of the three we got in lee trade, spencer is a good propect so it outman if he stays healthy. If you read the scouting reports on gillies I mention it before, scouts said he wouldnt get the cheap hits in higher level. According to them he beat out a lot of cheap hits, in a hitters league. Aumont is and was a disaster, and ramirez is nothing to write home about. we gave up a lot more for fat joe.and got junk for a pennant difference pitcher like lee we didnt get one top prospect. reminds me of schilling trade, twenty game loser, a 36 year old relief pitcher, a drunk in pitcher and a former first round flop.in lee . for a proven winner who had one and half years left on his contract at 5 million , and he prove it by winning in arizona, i believe they won a world series, and colongelo owed 100 million, to mlb to afford that winning team.

  127. mikemike,

    Who says Cardenas is a prospect at all anymore? He’s bombed at AAA two times and has been sent back to AA AGAIN. The stuff I’ve read says he may be the first AAa player … the minor league version of the AAAA player.

    Spencer is 24 in AA and has an OPS barely over .800. That is NOT Major League production.

    Outman is HURT, who cares what he’s did prior, he’s doing NOTHING now and this injury leaves his future in question.

    Blanton DID help us win a WS … let this one go, you’re not making much of a case.

  128. Not to pile on … well, yes, I guess I am piling on, but it’s deserved.

    I am far from an apologist for management, which has made its share of mistakes (Ibanez, e.g.). But some people are just absurd & impossible to please, mikemike in this case. To criticize the Blanton deal, at THIS point, with a WS win and two WS appearances that might not have happened without that deal, is beyond absurd. Even in the extremely unlikely event that the prospects in that deal turn out to have significant long term value, that was not just a good deal, but a great deal.

  129. If we can get you 1/2 starter and a top SS/3B prospect for Werth, I’m ready to do it. In the past, I haven’t subscribed to the bring up Dom Brown thought process, but I’m just about there. I assume you can plug Dom in for Werth and get an similar contribution to the offense and not lose defense; that you can extort quality prospects and pitching from the Yankees or Sox; and that injuries will clear up in the 2nd half leading to more consistent offensive production.

    I also assume you can bid on Werth or Crawford this offseason if you wish.

    I may be off base, but I also I think the Phillies struggles are due to inability to identify the 2007/2008 Werth and Dobbs (2nd chance players) as bench players to develop, and giving them opportunities to play. I acknowledge this this difficult to do consistently…

  130. Cardenas is a no hit 2nd baseman with no range and poor hands. Repeat that 5 times fast. Outman may turn out to be a really good pitcher, however the deal to get Blanton was fine. Move on, there is nothing to see here…

  131. LarryM – hear hear! Additionally, Blanton historically has a better 2nd half, if I recall… so I expect more from the fella in August and September.

  132. Blanton trade led to WS championship. None of the players traded from the Phils have become stars. That’s case closed for me even though, admittedly, I completely hated the trade at the time and his recent contract left me scratching my head a bit.

  133. Blanton was never one to take care of himself. Ruben gave him a big wallet. Did he think Blanton would suddenly become a gym rat?

    ps Maybe we can save Peavy from the idiots that brought him back after a 2 hour delay. What idiots.

    I expect to see Brown after the break.

  134. Larry–

    How can you appreciate the Blanton trade while critical of the Ibanez signing. He carried the team for two months last season—–no chance we get to the playoffs without that performance.

  135. wmbbfan,

    Ibanez was great early on last year, he wasn’t later. And we had other options – granted, not necessarily great options, but good enough that we still almost certainly would have won anyway – recall we finished 6 games up. You could sort of say the same about Blanton last year – except that Blanton was a little more valuable than Ibanez over the course of the year, and would have been harder to replace. And of course that doesn’t even take into account 2008, where they won by only 3, had no other decent options if they didn’t obtain Blanton, and Blanton had a key WS victory.

    Finally, while it is to some extent a matter of comparing apples and oranges, I’d say that Ibanez’s contract (and the draft pick)was much more costly than the prospects given up for Blanton.

    All that said, and while it is an entirely seperate issue, I did scratch my head a little about the contract to Blanton this year. But at least that was a defensible contract – the Ibanez contract wasn’t.

  136. mwbbfan he can appreciate the Blanton trade and not Ibanez because Blanton’s contract isnt crippling this team right now.

  137. Cardenas is a no hit wow twenty one, and is at double aa over 400 average last I LOOKED. has had troulbe with triple a but is still a baby. And check out spencer he is really coming on. but i am never right so be it? blanton at 10 million for a fifth starter is a lot bob. Amaro should have never offered him three years. one year arb deal.

  138. You know what Mikey you are probably right, I should have said ‘No Power’ second baseman. What is his ISO now, around .030 ? Even in AA he hasn’t shown any real signs of ever hitting for power, and a bad defensive 2nd with no power isn’t really that valuable.

    And the deal to blanton this year has nothing to do with evaluating if it was a good trade, i’m not sure what you are getting at there.

  139. bob_m
    No but his pitching is. And then again there is next year.

    I love Raul but there are hundreds of outfielders in baseball. Half a year didn’t win the pennant.

  140. Out of all the prospects that were given up for Blanton, Lee, and Halladay, please name one who has been truly lighting it up.

  141. Out of all the prospect taken in the Lee deal name one that has been truly lighting it up

  142. D’Arnaud is hitting very well.
    Drabek just pitched a no-hitter.
    Outman looks like a decent MLB mid-rotation lefty starter.

    …but really, can we stop talking about the Lee deal? Its pointless. You can’t say anything that hasn’t already been said too many times. It was a horrible trade that killed the 2010 season before it started- so what? Lets move on…There’s plenty more to talk about; I’m SO sick of Cliff Lee.

    Ruben Amaro isn’t even to blame. No GM would’ve made that move if he didn’t have to. The problem is, it didn’t even make financial sense. Stop talking about GMs as though money isn’t an issue. This is a business and the bottom line is the bottom line.

    Geez, at this point, I almost want them to trade Werth, just so everyone stops talking about Cliff Lee. On that note- what do you want for Werth? I’d like a corner outfielder who can step in mid 2011 or early 2012.

  143. ****Drabek just pitched a no-hitter.****

    In his 2nd full year in AA. He’s repeating a level this year. It certainly hurts his prospect status a bit. His numbers really aren’t that much better than they were last season. Though he is doing better against LHBs…something that was killing him last season.

    Either way, Drabek was the price to pay for Halladay…not a bad tradeoff.

  144. I want a third baseman dammit. Adding another soon-to-be-frustrated pitcher to the mix (seriously, Halladay and Hamels both have 7 losses) doesn’t seem to make sense.
    This lineup is horrible without Utley and Polanco. And with Werth and Ibanez playing as they are now.
    Is there a relatively young AAA or AAAA third baseman somewhere that we can get to plug in now and maybe replace Polanco when his deal ends?

  145. Baxter your right, it just makes me mad to know we went to the world series, lost in my opinion because we couldn’t match up with the yankees starters. lee was unreal,but hamel couldnt if i remember right hold a 4 run lead, and had no one to match up with pettite. we add polanco a real upgrade, and when we got halladay,man on fire, except we couldnt keep lee over money, and it was money, in my head it makes no sense, not after the fans loyalty to this team, lee halladay and hamels against the yankees in the series last year do we lose in 6? dont think so. It to me is just hard to swallow, we acted like the low level money teams in dealing him.

  146. baxter
    I don’t think you can stop people from talking about the worse trade in baseball history.(when taken in regards to return, effect on this season, and the potential returns as well as the effect on the bullpen)

  147. Wow, worst trade in baseball history? You mean 1 year of Cliff Lee tops Babe Ruth being sold to the Yankees?

    Hey, at least we won’t have to continue hearing about Ryan Sandberg or Fergie Jenkins anymore so there was some upside!!!

  148. OKAY 3up wasnt ryan sandberg and bowa for de jesus?? but who did we trade for fergie forgot

  149. Bob Buhl and Larry Jackson(pitchers) but the loss of Jenkins had no immmediate effect on the Phils i

    3up forgot that one. The Yankees also benefited because Babe the pitcher was a Yankee killer.

  150. MLBTR- says Yankees on the verge of acqiring Cliff Lee, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Rumored players involved: Jesus Montero, C-OF-DH, David Adams 2B.

  151. if the Lee to Yanks trade goes down (I still don’t think it will)…apparently phils/yanks have an agreement in place to swap werth for vazquez.

    as a phils fan, I would be thrilled with that trade

  152. I’m in NY for the weekend and they are talking on the radio that after that trade is done that yankees are going to swap vazquez for werth. i hope to god thats not true.

  153. ****if the Lee to Yanks trade goes down (I still don’t think it will)…apparently phils/yanks have an agreement in place to swap werth for vazquez.

    as a phils fan, I would be thrilled with that trade
    ****

    Sure you’re not a Yankees fan? That would be a terrible terrible trade for the Phillies. And Olney didn’t say any such thing. He said “Vasquez might be on the block” and “Phillies were shopping Werth”. Logically, in his mind that led to a Vasquez-Werth swap. Dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.

  154. How would a vazquez for werth trade be bad for the phils? They would improve their pitching and I don’t think there would be a drop off offensively. They can call up brown and platoon him or ibanez with francisco (who is vastly underutilized).

    The thought of amaro negotiating werth’s new contract scares the crap out of me.

    And I never said anything about olney reporting the vazquez for werth thing.

  155. If we trade Werth, we better be getting a SP PLUS either a solid prospect or a decent 2B/3B utility guy.

  156. Not sure what Vasquez’s contract status is, but if he’s signed beyond this year, that would increase his perceived value. Straight up, I’d say Werth has more value, but, as always, money does strange things to trade values.

  157. Werth for Vazquez?

    I have one word for that: Bleeech!

    An outright disaster. Regardless of your rationale for the trade, it would be horrible.

    Rationale # 1- Win this year.
    It would not help the team this year (in fact, it is more likely to hurt the team). Werth is a more valuable player and the notion that he could easily be replaced by some floating assemblage of Francisco and Brown and whoever else you might think of is just silly.

    Rationale # 2 – be ready to win in the next year or two.

    How does it help you achieve this goal? If Werth stays the season, the team will have an opportunity to sign him long term without surrendering picks. If we trade him, obviously, he’s not here for next year and the fact we have Vazquez, doesn’t make me feel much better about that loss.

    Rationale # 3- rebuild or restock.

    Here’s the most obvious reason the trade would be horrible. If the Phillies keep Werth, they are going to offer him arbitration. He will refuse and the team will get quality compensatory picks. As for Vazquez, the team would probably non-tender him. If they offer him arbitration, however, he might accept, which would drive their salary costs way up for an aging pitcher who is now probably a 3 or a 4.

    This would be among the worst trades in Phillies’ history. Just a terrible move.

  158. most of the time established pitchers have more value than established position players. Player salaries prove this point

  159. Looks like I’m in the minority. That’s fine. I do this trade in a heartbeat if I’m amaro.

    How can you just speculate that the phils will non-tender vazquez?

    also, in the NL vazquez is a 1 or 2…not a 3 or 4. he’s a difference maker if the phils land him

  160. “the worse trade in baseball history”

    You’re kidding, right? Please tell me you are. It probably isn’t one of the top 100 worst trades in baseball history. That’s even assuming (worst case) that none of the three prospects amounts to anything.

  161. “the worse trade in baseball history”

    Where is Throw-In Sandberg when you need him/her?

  162. “That’s even assuming (worst case) that none of the three prospects “Aumounts” to anything.”

    fixed it for ya

  163. Vazquez isn’t a 1 or 2 unless he’s on the Pirates. He’s a formerly very good pitcher who is now simply another guy in a rotation and, by the by, he’s still really expensive.

    He’s 7-7 with a 4.81 ERA. Our fifth starter is 5-3 with a 4.48 ERA. So, we’re going to get another 5th starter and sacrifice a good number 5 hitter who, at the very worst, is going to bring us a couple of high draft picks next year. THIS MAKES NO SENSE.

  164. Agree. I’d pass on Vazaquez. How about a nice BP arm instead? If SD would give us Gregerson + a prospect or two, I’d take it. Gregerson could be our new closer.

  165. Why dont we throw in brown and singleton to the yankees. If the phillies trade werth for that stiff, that’s go to be the biggest blunder since the phillies traded lee. so amaro dont be a idiot, we dont need vazaquez, we need haren or oswalt plus a bat,

  166. ****How would a vazquez for werth trade be bad for the phils? They would improve their pitching and I don’t think there would be a drop off offensively. They can call up brown and platoon him or ibanez with francisco (who is vastly underutilized).****

    Because both are free agents in 2 months, Werth is the better player, we WON’T offer Vasquez arbitration as he’d likely accept. Vasquez has never been good on a 1st place team, he melts under the spot light. He’s having a terrible year, he costs more than Werth the rest of the way…plugging Brown in for Werth hurts us offensively as it makes us too lefty heavy, Francisco is not the answer either, and Werth is one of the best RFs in the game and is our only RHB.

    Do I really need to go on? How could you possibly think its a good deal?

  167. Golson? Well, yeah if we could nab a toolsy young OF prospect like that I’d be all for it.

  168. The yankees arent stupid, they wont give us golson? If we get a five tool stud like that, we would catch the braves easy.

  169. Hell, if the yanks will take Baez I’d do Danny & werth for swisher and javey. I’d offer both arb. If they sign somewhere else we get at least two picks and if they come back on one year deals than we use them to replace werth and moyer. Rube has to offer arb to them or the deal won’t make any sense.

  170. Davidoff of NYNewsDay in his latest followup to his former tweet that “talks have hit a snag” now tweets that Mariners are telling other interested teams they are out of the sweepstakes and it appears Mariners will trade Lee to Yankees.

    Payroll is busted even without Werth, so picking up some veterans who they do not offer arbitration to, would not be unexpected if they dealt Werth. Maybe they can get Jose Lopez passed along from Mariners in a proposed Werth for Vasquez deal in addition to a Yankees prospect or two, so maybe that works out.

  171. catch 22, a pitcher’s W-L record is virtually meaningless. He got off to a bad start this year, but look at Vazquez’s stats over the last month. He’s been good. And he’s pitching in the best division in baseball. He comes to the considerably weaker NL East and he becomes even more effective.

    As for the lineup being too LH. That is not ideal but the phils will be moving victorino back down in the order when polanco returns which will break up the lefties. The lineup would be fine (they do need a stopgap for utley though).

    I have to admit I didn’t know that vazquez is a FA after 2010. That definitely hurts my stance. If the phils do offer vazquez arbitration after the year, wouldn’t you rather have vazquez over werth for 2011? I know I would.

    Like I said, I know I’m in the minority. Werth is a solid player. He’s a cog, not a centerpiece. Problem is someone is going to pay him centerpiece money. I’d rather have it be someone besides the phils (especially with the way amaro has spent).

  172. One thing I noticed about Vasquez, he has been much more effective in his last 5 or 6 starts. You do pay more for a pitcher than a position player. How about the Mariners include Jose Lopez in the deal and the Yanks include him with Vasquez

  173. Werths more valuable then Vazquez but their not too far apart. Don’t look too much into Vazquezs numbers this year because he got off to an awful start and he never pitches well in new york. Look at his National league numbers to get a better idea what to expect.

  174. On mlbtraderumors every post about vasquez is that the yanks are finding it hard to move him. The phils won’t trade werth strait up for him it’s a fantasy world deal. For a yanks fan!

  175. **** If the phils do offer vazquez arbitration after the year, wouldn’t you rather have vazquez over werth for 2011? I know I would.****

    Vasquez is making $11 million this year…guarantee they wouldn’t offer him arbitration for fear of him accepting. Its not even a real rumor anyway.

  176. rosenthal just said a werth/vazquez deal has a 50-1 shot of happening. so I guess we can move on

    am I the only phillies fan that is absolutely terrified of the trade deadline this year? I have zero confidence in amaro

  177. Amaro didnt do too shabby last trade deadline. Give him a chance to do a deal when his hands arent tied as they were in the Lee fiasco.

  178. Sorry, guys, I know Vazquez has been better of late, but none of your arguments convince me in the least. Vazquez would be a minimal upgrade, at best, to our starting pitching, but the loss of Werth would be huge. If you think our offensive problems are bad now, just try a month and a half without Jayson Werth.

    Also, the arguments about Werth and Vazquez after the season are misguided. The Philles are NOT going to offer Vazquez arbitration because he could get paid between $12-15 million and he is not worth that kind of money, particularly to a team that is on the salary bubble. So, the team would have to non-tender him and he’d be gone. Werth, by contrast, is going to be a highly sought-after free agent, and will bring excellent compensation in return if the team decides not to sign him.

    It’s a horrible trade guys, just terribly bad. Can we move on?

  179. vazquez and werth will bring equal value if each is non-tendered

    but keep using pitcher record to support your argument

  180. Can we talk about how the Yankees just acquired Lee for Jesus Montero, 2B David Adams and a third prospect?

    How Rube looks like a complete and utter moron right now?

    How about that?

    *****vazquez and werth will bring equal value if each is non-tendered*****

    We WOULD offer Werth Arbitration…we WOULD NOT offer Vasquez. See the difference in value? Either way, its not even a real rumor so lets stop discussing it.

  181. NEPP Says:
    July 9, 2010 at 12:12 PM

    Can we talk about how the Yankees just acquired Lee for Jesus Montero, 2B David Adams and a third prospect?

    How Rube looks like a complete and utter moron right now?

    Montero is so overrated. He’s a 1st baseman who’s hitting has regressed this year in AAA.

  182. Montero’s numbers don’t look that good this year at AAA. Most guys say he will not stick at catcher since he has not progressed at handling the position.

    The Yankees are masters at talking up prospects and most times the guys they give up don’t compare to the player they get.

  183. VaWerth fort Vasquez would never happen, because the Phillies won’t trade unless they get someone under contract for next year. Trading for Vasquez serves no purpose for anyone. He has negative value because he makes nice money and no team will offer arbitration for fear of him accepting.

  184. NEPP thank you – I was going to say the same thing. I’m not replying to the Vazquez for Werth arguments any more. It’s just too silly of an idea.

    As for Lee, it was just a flat out bad baseball move and an even worse public relations blunder (yet another reason why the Werth trade wouldn’t happen – can you imagine the fallout after that one?). By the way, I say this without regard to the players we received in return and whether Lee would have signed. It was a simple case of the Phillies non-tendering Blanton, keeping Lee for the year and doing the Halladay deal – this, alone, would have made the team a top contender to win a WS as subsequent events (namely, Lee’s performance) have demonstrated. This easily could have been accomplished within the team’s budget and, you know, instead of continuing to defend his decision or saying the Phillies could not have had both players at the same time (a lie or, at best, a very misleading statement, this could have easily been orchestrated had Blanton been out of the equation), he should stop insulting everyone’s intelligence and just say that he understands people were and are upset and his job now is to be forward-looking and try to improve the team.

    All of that having been said, the prospects we received may turn into something and Amaro cannot let his prior miscalculation destroy the team’s long-term blueprint for success with its fairly deep group of minor league players.

    That having been said,

  185. ****Montero is so overrated. He’s a 1st baseman who’s hitting has regressed this year in AAA.****

    Actually, if you look at his splits, you’d see he had a rough start and has been hitting pretty well (.800+ OPS) since 1 June. Especially when you factor in that he’s in his Age 20 season in AAA.

  186. Montero is gonna be a beast. The Lee trade is a good deal for the Yanks and M’s.

    I’m just glad he didn’t go to the mets

  187. “I’m just glad he didn’t go to the mets”

    Amen. Hopefully this also causes the Sox to make a nice offer for Werth.

  188. Catch 22: completely agreed on the Lee/Blanton thing.

    I also have seen anyone bring up the really, truly damning thing for Amaro in all of this: that the Yankees offered Montero+ back in December, and Amaro turned it down in favor of the Mariners’ package. Even back in December (i.e. before the various struggles of the Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez trio), that was a borderline indefensible decision.

  189. Its pretty clear that trading away Lee was already going to create a fan backlash. Trading him to the Yankees, the team the Phils just lost the WS to would have magnified that backlash tenfold. Lee was traded for a sub-par return mostly because of PR.

  190. Trading Werth is an admission that this is a lost year.

    nik, is the current backlash any worse? Rube looks like a complete and utter boob right now.

  191. amaro couldn’t justify trading for montero because he knew he’d have to move to 1B (in the NL). amaro was hellbent on giving howard that ridiculous contract. future of the franchise be damned!! let’s keep overpaying for diminishing returns on our investments!!

    I wish amaro could get traded

  192. nik is right and so is NEPP … no way he could trade Lee to the Yankees … would think he had to anticipate the possibility of Lee being traded, so NEPP is right that he looks just as bad.

    Just a bad situation … only way he could have won was by keeping him, and I know he’s not concerned of winning the PR battle.

  193. We could have traded for Montero and FLIPPED Montero to say, the Blue Jays for Halladay…thus keeping Taylor, Drabek, etc. Or flipped Montero to any number of teams that would want him to fill another need.

  194. Catch22 You really are unfairly judging Vazquez. I mean the guy was in the running for the cy young last year. His Wins above replacement the last 2 years are 4.8 wins and 6.6 respectively. As for Werth his Wins above replacement are 5.0 and 4.8 Now granted Werth is having the better year but If we got a solid prospect, a bullpen guy, or say like swisher with him this deal could make sense for both sides.

  195. I’ve watched Montero two dozen times this year and I’m not impressed in the slightest. He can’t catch and he moves at a snail’s pace. He’s been benched this year for not hustling. My way of thinking is that if he can’t run now, what will he look like when he’s 30?

  196. If I’m reading this right, I don’t think nik is so much defending Amaro’s thought process as he is merely identifying it. It might be cynical, but it’s completely possible that Amaro took the inevitable PR hit of dealing Lee to the Yankees into consideration in turning down the Yankees offer. Either that, or the Phillies’ front office has some serious issues in judging minor league talent; I’m not sure which would be more depressing.

    Alan, Montero definitely can’t catch — on this we can all agree. But there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to play first base, and scouts are unanimous in loving his bat. The truly sad thing is that he would have served as a ready made replacement for Howard, thus removing any need to sign the big guy to that hefty extension… but alas, that’s an issue for another time.

  197. Viewing all of his moves in their totality, thus far, you would have to say that this has not been a good year for Ruben Amaro. I have some hope for him pulling a rabbit out of the hat, but he could just as easily make another bad move. I sure as heck have not developed any confidence in his judgment. Truthfully, I think the Phillies are just dead wrong in thinking that pitching is their biggest problem. It’s an issue, but the overall pitching talent and depth is there, particularly with the return of Madson – it’s just a question of getting the team into a good rhythm with the bullpen and deciding who to play and who not to play. We keep forgetting that this team was built to hit and score runs. In that vein, if I’m Ruben Amaro, I do two primary things. First, unless Ibanez begins hitting like crazy (questionable) I bring up Dom Brown within a week or so after the AS break. Second, we need another infielder who can hit. The likely candidate for this would seem to be a Baltimore player. I would prefer Wiggington, but I’d also take Tejada. It makes the team more competive and more likely to score runs over the next 7 weeks or so. We should not have to give up one of the crown jewels of the system to get this player. If I’m Baltimore, I’m thrilled to get a few good relief prospects (we DO have these players and some to burn) and probably also Rizzotti (people say he has no value – I disagree, he’s not a centerpiece, but he now has value, particuarly to a bad-hitting team like Baltimore). Now, if I can orchestrate a trade for a starting pitcher too where I don’t give up too much, I’d consider that – otherwise, I want to jump start the offense. The problem, people is the offense. If we scored runs in any many similar to prior years, this team would probably be about a game out of first right now and in perfect position for the second half of the year.

  198. Catch, could not diagree more about this not being a good year for Amaro. This year was wrecked by injures, not by his moves.

    IMO setting aside the Lee controversy, which should be addressed now in the seperate thread, his 2 big mistakes were the Howard contract and the Ibanez contract. The Howard contract won’t impact the team for years, and the Ibanez contract, as bad as it was, isn’t a huge factor in this year’s problems. The much derided Moyer contract (and I was one of the people piling on) doesn’t look so bad given his performance this year.

  199. the moyer contract sucks too. he couldn’t beat out pedro for a playoff rotation spot.

    this team needs a stopgap at 3B/2B and a starting pitcher. I’m on record as saying the phils should go after ted lilly. He could be acquired for a marginal prospect or two. Their current rotation just isn’t good enough with moyer and kendrick both occupying spots.

    also, an easy solution to the LF issue would be to platoon francisco and ibanez. no way ibanez should be playing every day, let alone hitting 3rd

  200. ****He could be acquired for a marginal prospect or two. ****

    How do you figure? He’s a very good LHP with a long track record of success. and he’s relatively cheap $$ wise.

  201. he’s a FA after the year. and aren’t the cubs trying to cut salary due to a pending sale of the team?

    and I think he’s missed most of 2010 with an injury right?

  202. If the Lee trade is a done deal, any possibility in the Phils shipping Werth out to the BoSox or the Rays for one of their top prospects? They may want to make a move to compete with the Yanks rotation. I know Desmond Jennings would probably be a stretch with the BJ Upton situation but both these organizations seem to have some quality kids in the high minors.

  203. Lilly will fetch more than a marginal prospect or 2 if for no other reason than because he will be a type A FA at the end of the year.

    As for being hurt, he’s made every start since late April so not sure that counts as most of 2010.

    Are you willing to trade someone like Singleton or May because it will probably take a top 100 prospect to make a deal happen?

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