Now that said – the only area I think I might not agree with Nobody is with the comment “I hope they stock up on 3B and SS”. Don’t get me wrong, if there is a stud 3B or SS in the early rounds you jump on him. Or I am ok further down the line stocking up and taking some fliers on specific needs. But at the higher level rounds I still strongly believe you take the person with the best realistic upside. Now obvisously we can debate the “realistic” upside of the Hewitt’s and Colliers, etc., but I do believe that you take the best talent you can get and if it’s not the perfect position of need don’t sweat it – there is always value.

And I think another reason to not do the “fill the need” thought process is how far away these kids are from the majors. Most you are talking 3-4 years, at the minimum. Who knows – Mattair turns into junior Mike Schmidt (just an example!) and suddenly your “need” isn’t your need anymore.

(I think it should be noted, that by my count, the Phils have selected 39 players since 1990 in rounds 1 and 2, but only about 1/3 of them have been HS position players, not exactly an overwhelming majority.)

Before Mike Arbuckle came over from the Braves system and helped rebuild the Phillies system from the garbage heap, the Phillies developed a reputation for shying away from High School players and going after signable college juniors and seniors. The late 1980′s and early 1990′s are full of forgettable college JAG draft picks.

I am happy the Phillies don’t shy away from HS kids anymore. I don’t want to bring back the days of Brad Brink, Pat Combs, Tyler Green, Chad McConnell, Wayne Gomes, and Carlton Loewer.

JAG = Just A Guy

(In the entire time that the Phillies have been drafting players, how many high-round, high school, “toolsy” position players have actually turned into good players? In other words, when the Phils have risked a high draft pick on a “toolsy” young position player, how often has it worked out?)

I think that question might be slightly mis-applied to this organization. Or at least it has to be broken up into parts.

** 1. I don’t believe you can go all the way back to Lonnie Smith, or Jeff Jackson, or maybe even Greg Golson. We are talking about the same organization yes, but only on the surface. The Phillies organization has completely changed over the last 25 years. They went from one of the best farm systems in baseball to one of the worst, to mediocre, back to one of the best again. They have come full circle with different men running the show applying different strategies. And Golson was drafted under the Ed Wade regime. This is the Pat Gillick / Reuben Amaro regime.

** 2. Going further, this “toolsy” outfielder as a trend really only goes back to the last 2 drafts…2008 and 2009. The previous “toolsy” outfielders drafted highly before that were D’Arby E Myers (4th) in 2006, Gregory J Golson (1st) in 2004 and Michael R Bourn (4th) and Javon Moran (5th) in 2003. So out of those 4 guys, only Golson was drafted in the first 3 rounds. Michael Bourn was the primary player used to trade with Houston for Brad Lidge. We know Lidge played a huge part in the 2008 World Series championship. Throw in the fact that Bourn appears to be developing into a very fine CF and leadoff hitter for the Astros. Greg Golson was traded for a former 1st round pick in John Mayberry Jr., so he still had some trade value as well this season. Beyond that Golson’s future is still unknown. Moran was a bust and Myers is still in the system. Overall I think the net result is that their “toolsy” outfielder picks worked out pretty well for them in 03, 04, and 06.

** 3. Now what about 08 and 09? Sure, I agree it seems like they went overboard a bit here in the outfield. But I think “FROM SECTION 113” nailed the analysis here in his earlier comments. 2008 and 2009 are both similar drafts but I think for different reasons.

Think about where the organization was at the end of 2007 concerning the outfield. The Phillies had younger infielders in Utley, Rollins, Howard, etc and they were not just good players, but stars just entering their prime. In the farm system they still had infielders they had invested early picks in…Travis Mattair (2nd) in 2007, Adrian Cardenas (1st) and Jason Donald (3rd) in 2006, Michael A Costanzo (2nd) and Michael A Durant (4th) in 2005.

Meanwhile the outfield was filled with question marks. Aaron Rowand was entering Free Agency and everybody knew he was going to be too expensive to re-sign. Pat Burrell’s was approaching Free Agency after the 2008 season. Jason Werth was a Pat Gillick reclamation project that was still viewed as a nice platoon player but maybe not a fulltime starter. Shane Victorino was still emerging and had just played his first full season (as a LF). In the minors Michael Taylor hadn’t yet begin to show much of anything and nobody was yet predicting Dominic Brown for superstardom.

** 4. With the above in context, 2008 made perfect sense to me. Collier and Gose were logical choices and I thought pretty solid value based on where they were selected. We all know Hewitt was the penultimate high risk/high reward type of player and I wouldn’t argue with anybody who thought he was a wasted pick because of that fact. The Phillies seemed genuinely hopeful that Hewitt could make it at 3rd base and I am sure they were hoping that between Mattair and Hewitt, one of them would emerge as a clear 3B candidate. So far they are wrong on their 3rd base gamble and it appears that Hewitt is moving to the outfield. And Domingo Santana was a Free Agent who was still a kid.

** 5. The 2009 draft is where legit questions can be asked around how they utilized their selections. By the time the 2009 draft started Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown were emerging as future stars. Shane Victorino and Jason Werth were having All Star type of seasons. Raul Ibanez was tearing it up and was signed thru 2011. Collier, Gose, and Golson/Mayberry were now in the system, along with Quintin Berry who is a decent OF prospect in his own right. So what did the Phillies do? They drafted 3 more outfield prospects in the first 10 rounds, and tried hard to sign 14th rounder Jacob Stewart.

At the end of the day, the Phillies selections in the 2009 draft came at a time when their starting pitching was a train wreck. The Phillies knew they were going to have to try and trade for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher to compete in the postseason. One thing I really believe is that the Phillies assumed in early June that either Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown (or both) might have to be included in any deal. I bet that if the 2009 draft was held after the Cliff Lee deal was completed…a deal that saw neither Brown or Taylor included…the Phillies might not have drafted 4 more outfielders in the first 14 rounds.

** 6. In 2010 I expect to see the Phillies select 3B and SS early and often. At least I hope so. I can rationalize all early picks spent on “toolsy” OF selections in 2008 and 2009, but I couldn’t in 2010…unless they swapped some of the current group of outfielders for infield prospects from other organizations.