Day 2 draft thoughts

I was out for much of the day today and was following some of the picks on my iPhone, so I wasn’t able to really give detailed thoughts. As you can see from my twitter update, I was a fan of the Singleton and Susac picks. I’m going to give some very brief thoughts on each individual pick, as well as the first half of the draft in general. I hope to hit on a few key points that will be worth monitoring over the next 2+ months and beyond. So lets get started.

Before I get started, thanks to everyone who visited the site today. Today was the busiest day in the history of the site, with 18,206 visits and counting. Thanks again. Now, here we go

* First, a few nuts and bolts comments. The signing deadline this year has been pushed back to August 17th at midnight from August 15th last year. The 17th is a Monday, so it will give teams a weekend to hammer out deals as opposed to a Friday night. All players not signed by the 17th either go to college, return to college, or head to Indy Ball before entering next year’s draft. I’m unsure of the exact procedure for college seniors, but if they have no remaining eligibility, I believe they become free agents. I’ll check more into that as the summer progresses. I also want to briefly explain the slotting system, for those who are new to the draft or who haven’t studied it in depth. Major League Baseball, ie, the Commissioners Office, issues informal recommendations to teams every year with regard to an “appropriate” signing bonus based on where the pick is made. In 2008, the recommendation for the 1st overall pick was $4M. The Rays ended up giving Tim Beckham more than $6M, but the bonus was spread out because he was considered a 2 spot athlete. The recommendation for the 24th pick, Anthony Hewitt, was $1.38M, which is the bonus he received. The bonus for the last pick of the 5th round, #172 overall, was $155,000. The Red Sox took Ryan Westmoreland, a super toolsy OF from Rhode Island, and gave him $2M, the recommendation for the 7th overall pick. Some teams follow these recommendations down to the dollar, some teams blatantly disregard these recommendations year in and year out, and some teams selectively choose to ignore them. As I mentioned, every pick in the first five rounds is given a recommended bonus amount, and the general consensus is that after Round 5, no bonus should exceed $125,000. Many teams will give bonus amounts in the $125K-$175K in Rounds 5-10, but the average is around $100k, College seniors will often times get less ($50,000-85,000 range), and guys going after the 10th round will receive even less.

* The big issue surrounding every team in the draft is how many picks they have, how much money they have to spend on picks, and how many guys they realistically have to sign to fill out their numbers. It seems fairly obvious, but most teams have four full season teams (A, A+, AA, AAA), and at least two short season leagues (short season league, rookie league), while a few teams have three short season affiliates. The short season leagues are going to be filled with guys taken last year who were deemed too raw for a full season team (think Hewitt and Pettibone), guys coming back from injury (think Shreve) and then guys signed in Latin America who are deemed ready for a US league, ie, Domingo Santana. Beyond these guys, you need to fill out the rosters, which is where the new draftees come in. Some teams will have more spots to fill than others, so they will draft more guys in the draft, college seniors, fifth year seniors, with intention of having them make up the numbers. Other teams have more “legit” guys that need AB’s, so they may be more likely to just take flier picks with the intention of not signing those guys. Teams take guys with no intention of signing them for a number of reasons. You may not want a team with really deep pockets taking the guy and then signing him for first round money. You may want to open a relationship with the kid in high school and then re-draft him when hes eligible, kind of like the Phillies did with Worley. Or you might take a flier, hope the kid has a change of heart at the end of the summer, and decides he really wants to play pro ball and is willing to take much less in bonus money. If a guy is committed to a mid tier division 1 program only to see the coach and his staff that recruited him get wiped out, he may be more likely to bail on college and sign. Of course the vast majority of these guys in the flier category end up going to college, but there’s always a chance.

* So that brings us to the Phillies specifically. Last year was an unprecedented (at least since I’ve been following the draft) year for the Phillies in terms of the draft. They spent a ton of money (relative to their previous spending) on adding talent to the system. They had extra picks, and not only did they sign their extra picks, but they signed many of them for above slot deals. Two quick charts. Here is 2007, Rounds 1-10

2007, R1-R10

As you can see, the Phillies went with the slot guidelines on all of their picks in the first 10 rounds, and they saved the $288K by not signing Workman and then saved additional money by taking easy signs in Mach, Brummett, Chapman, Kissock and Rocchio. They spent $390,000 on 12th round pick Julian Sampson and $150,000 on Jiwan James in the 22nd round. Add that up, and you’re at $540,000 on those two above slot deals, minus the estimated $640,000 they “saved” in the first 10 rounds, and they spent less money than you’d expect them to spend on the entire draft class. It was a huge savings, but it still represented a modest draft budget. Take the $3.3M spent on rounds 1-10, add the $540K on the two above slot deals, and you’ve basically got $3.85M. Add in the nominal $5K and $10K deals that some of the later guys probably got, and you’re right around $4M, give or take.

Then look at 2008

2008draftspend

The Phillies went with the slot guidelines in the first round, compensation round, and then in the 2nd round, but they went slightly over slot for Knapp, slot for Worley, well over slot for Pettibone and May, slot for Hamilton and well over for Shreve. We “saved” $100K by not signing Coy (a smart decision, based on his demands), and basically paid average money for the trio of Overbeck and the two Rodriguez’s. As in past years, the Phillies got a little creative after the 10th round, giving 27th round pick Chad Poe $100K and more notably giving 38th round pick Jarred Cosart $550K to sign, that amount being the slot recommendation for the 73rd overall pick, so late 2nd round money. So, add that to the $5.85M spent in the first 10 rounds and you’re looking at about $6.5M spent, factoring in the $5-10K non material bonuses given to the later round guys.

So, in 2007 the Phillies had 12 picks in the first 10 rounds, signed 11 of them, spent about $640K less than the slot recommendations, and then made 2 notable signings after the first 10 rounds, adding another $540K to the total spent, bringing them to 13 notable signings and about $3.85M spent. In 2008 they had 13 picks in the first 10 rounds, they signed 12 of them at a cost of $5.85M. They also made two notable signings past the 10th round at a cost of $650K, meaning 14 picks and a cost a of $6.5M total. That means essentially 3 more guys signed and about $2.8M more spent, an average of about $925K per pick when you get down to it. This year, the Phillies had only 8 picks in the first 10 rounds. It was rumored that Major League Baseball had issued a 10% decrease in their slot recommendations this year. That seems arbitrary, but they are selling it as a correlation to the poor economy. So here are the 9 picks the Phillies had this year, # wise, the 2008 slot recommendation for the slot, and that number minus the 10% deflation in the projected bonus

2009slotrecs

So if the Phillies essentially just went with slot estimates, got their players signed for those numbers, and then followed the last two years and spent about $600K after the first 10 rounds, you’d be looking at about $2.1M spent in this draft. That’s just not going to happen. The last two seasons, they’ve had one player go unsigned in the first 10 rounds. It was Workman in 2007 and Coy in 2008. They’ve taken a number of tough signs in the first 10 rounds this year, and a bunch more later on. In 2007, a cheap draft, they spent $3.3M on the first 11 picks signed, that included $2.2M paid to our first rounder and our compensation rounder. Take those two picks out and you’ve got $1.1M spent in R2-R10. If you remove our 1st and comp picks in 2008, you have $3.45M, but that includes an extra second and a comp in the third. Gose ($772K) and Pettibone ($500K) were the extra picks, so $3.45M minus those two guys brings you to about $2.2M spent on our R2-R10 picks. That should give you an idea of what the Phillies will be expecting to spend here in 2009. Slot expectations would have them spending about $1.6M, they spent about $2.2M in this spot last year, which means maybe an extra $600,000. That assumption means they’d be ignoring the lost first round money, which this year would equate to about $1.2M for the 27th overall pick. If you assume that $1.2M is still part of the draft budget, and the $2.2M from last year’s R2-R10 picks, then our budget for the 9 guys they took is around $3.4M. That should allow them to be a bit creative.

Now that I’ve outlined all of that, lets take a very brief look at who they took

R2 – Kelly Dugan, 1B/OF (Notre Dame HS, CA) – 6’3/205 with a projectable frame, projectable power, and a good arm. If hes an OF, he’s going to be a corner guy, and it seems more likely he ends up at 1B, even though he was announced as an OF. Committed to Pepperdine, but seems eager to play. Slot recommendation is around $500K, but it might take a bit more than that. BA ranked him 76th in CA, unranked in the Top 200.

R3 – Kyrell Hudson, OF (Evergreen HS, WA) – A few here have noted that Hudson is a lot like Anthony Gose, he’s got blistering speed, a great arm, and is a great athlete. Like Gose, scouts also question his hit tool. He’s extremely raw, he’s committed to Oregon State for both baseball and football, and there have been questions about his desire to play baseball. I read a report today that says he wants to play baseball, but its going to take more than the $300K slot recommendation here to keep him away from college. He was ranked 2nd in Washington, 200th overall by BA.

R4 – Adam Buschini, 2B (Cal Poly) – Buschini is a grinder type, he doesn’t have exceptional tools though he can hit and does have some power. His profile sounds a lot like Tyler Mach’s from 2 years ago, so I guess I can only say I hope this turns out better. He was ranked 65th in CA, unranked in the Top 200 by BA. He redshirted in 2008, which would have been his junior year, so he’s a senior but has a year of eligibility left, I believe. I expect he’ll actually sign for below slot here, which is around $200K.

R5 – Matt Way, LHP (Washington State) – Way is a pitchability lefthander in the JA Happ/Matt Maloney mold, but he sounds a bit more like Maloney. His delivery is fairly simple, he kind of pushes the ball toward the plate but that might create some deception for him. He’s a senior, so again, this is a pick to save money. The slot here is around $150K, the last round which MLB makes recommendations for. BA had him 4th in WA, unranked in the Top 200.

R6 – Stephen Inch, RHP (Vauxhall Academy, Canada) – Inch was a late riser in a weak Canadian crop this year. He’s a typical Phillies target, tall and a thin frame, lots of projection here. His fastball is short at the present time, mid-upper 80’s, but he has a clean delivery and good makeup. He’s committed to Kentucky, which has a decent track record at holding their recruits, including 2008 draft pick James Paxton, who was one of the better prospects to come out of Canada in recent years. BA had Inch ranked 2nd in Canada in what they noted was a very weak crop.

R7 – Brody Colvin, RHP (St Thomas Moore HS, LA) – Now we’re talking. Colvin has a lightning fast arm and a very projectable frame. He’s already got present low 90’s heat and could sit in the 93-95 range when he’s done maturing physically. He’s also got a sharp curve and the apparent aptitude to develop a changeup as well. His delivery needs a few tweaks, but he’s kind of similar in his total package to what Kyle Drabek was out of high school. Colvin is a major signability pick, as he has a very strong commitment to LSU. If the Phillies are buying him out of that, its likely going to take 7 figures. BA had him ranked 3rd in Louisiana and 43rd overall.

R8 – Jonathan Singleton, 1B (Millikan HS, CA) – I listed Singleton before the start of the day as I guy I’d be intrigued by, and sure enough, the Phillies grabbed him in the 8th round. As I mentioned before, he’s got a good solid frame and great raw power, but his swing has a few hitches that have to be ironed out. He’s committed to Long Beach State, so again it comes down to signability here and what the number will be. He was ranked 38th in CA and 196th overall by BA.

R9 – Aaron Altherr, OF (Agua Fria HS, AZ) – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Altherr is a spectacular athlete who is extremely raw and hasn’t spent a lot of time playing baseball. And he’s an outfielder. So yeah, you can see the logic behind this pick. He’s committed to Arizona, which I’d say is a safe bet here. BA had him 19th in AZ, unranked in the Top 200.

R10 – Josh Zied, RHP (Tulane) – I couldn’t find any info on him, but I was able to watch his scouting video. Despite being tall (6’4), he doesn’t throw hard and seems to kind of sling the ball toward the plate. His delivery creates some movement on his fastball, but I didn’t see much here that impressed me. Unlike the relievers taken last year (Schwimer, Rosenberg) who had one dominant attribute and a bunch of other issues that depressed their stock, I don’t see anything here in Zied like that. But it may be old video and there may be something more. More likely, since he’s a senior, he’ll sign for a song and fill out a roster somewhere. BA had him 8th in LA, unranked in the Top 200.

So just to pause here and do a quick recap of 2-10. Dugan and Hudson both might sign, but will command more than slot. Buschini, Way, and Zied are senior signs and will come very cheap. Inch and Altherr seem like great bets to attend college. Colvin is going to cost them near 1st round money, and Singleton will probably require 2nd/3rd round money to sign. I’m gonna move through the rest of today’s picks a bit quicker and just highlight a few guys I’m especially intrigued by.

R11 – Jeremy Barnes, SS (Notre Dame) – Barnes is a utility guy at the next level, and as a senior he should sign quickly. BA had him 8th in Indiana.

R12 – Nicholas Hernandez, LHP (Tennessee) – Hernandez was good on the Cape last year but struggled this year at Tennessee. He’s a fastball/changeup guy with modest velocity. Guys who succeed in wood bat leagues (Cape Cod League) and struggle when heading back to school don’t seem to be that uncommon. He’s shown some ability, so who knows. He’s a junior, so he has some leverage. BA had him at #9 in TN.

R13 – Ryan Sasaki, LHP (Connally HS, TX) – I have nothing on him at all. BA doesn’t list him among their 110 guys in Texas. Any info here would be appreciated.

R14 – Jacob Stewart, OF (Rocky Mountain HS, CO) – Ahh, Jacob Stewart. I posted a little note from Keith Law where he said the Phillies were one of the teams that heavily scouted Stewart, and they were considering him with their 2nd round pick. My guess is they got a dollar amount and realized it wasn’t happening there, so they passed and just took a flier on him later. He’s one of the best athletes in the draft but scouts have big questions about his hit tool, which is a central theme among Phillies draft picks. He’s committed to Stanford, Ruben Amaro’s alma mater and is likely a tough sign. I’d say it would probably take at least 2nd round money to buy him out of college. He was ranked the top prospect in Colorado and 74th overall in the country.

R15 – Austin Hyatt, RHP (Alabama) – Hyatt is similar to Hernandez, he’s a fastball/changeup guy and is a 5th year senior, so he’ll sign for a small sum. BA ranked him 16th in AL.

R16 – Andrew Susac, C (Jesuit HS, CA) – I don’t know what it is, but I like Susac a lot and was excited to see them grab him, even if he’s not really signable. He’s one of the best defensive catchers in the draft but his bat needs work. He’s got a commitment to Oregon State, which seems pretty likely, but he’ll be an interesting guy to follow in college for the next 3 years. If his bat develops, he’s a 1st/2nd round pick. Was ranked 24th in CA and 112th overall.

R17 – Michael Dabbs, OF (Oklahoma State) – I know nothing about Dabbs, is a senior out of Oklahoma State, so likely just filling out numbers, which is odd because he’s an OF, and the Phillies have like 300 OF in their system. BA had him 28th in OK.

R18 – Roy Uhl, OF (UC Riverside) – Uhl is also a senior, and also an outfielder, and again I know nothing about him. He’s undersized (5’8/170) and its hard to see where he fits in.

R19 – Stephen Batts, 1B (East Carolina) – Batts, another senior, is a left fielder with a decent stick, maybe kind of similar to Steve Susdorf last year. He’s just here to fill out the numbers. BA had him 38th in NC.

R20 – Darin Ruff, 1B (Creighton) – Ruf makes 4 seniors in a row, and I have no info on him. BA had him ranked 7th in Nebraska, but had nothing written on him.

R21 – Chase Johnson, RHP (Deer Valley, AZ) – Johnson is a JuCo guy with a big frame (6’4, 230) and good arm strength, but not a lot else. He’s got a bit of funk in his delivery which could create some deception. He’s in his second year of JuCo I believe, and I don’t know of a commitment to a D1 program. BA had him at #36 in Arizona

R22 – Kyle “Bronco” Lafrenz, RHP (Indiana State) – No info on him. But he goes by Bronco apparently. So there’s that, and he’s a senior, so nothing to really worry about. He was ranked #24 in Indiana.

R23 – Evan Porter, SS (Nebraska) – Porter was the 10th ranked out of 10 guys BA covered for Nebraska, and they wrote nothing about him. So I won’t either.

R24 – Justin Long, RHP (Bellevue, NE) – Long’s writeup sounds intriguing. Modest fastball, but a good slider/cutter combo and a good competitor. He’s a senior, like most of our picks. BA had him 4th in Nebraska. Apparently they owed favors to their crosschecker in charge of Nebraska, since they took 3 of the 10 guys BA even mentioned.

R25 – Eric Massingham, RHP (Cal Poly) – Another senior, another guy I know nothing about. Not ranked in CA.

R26 – Brian Gump, OF (UC Santa Barbara) – Gump makes 9 out of 10 picks being college seniors in a row. He’s got speed, and that looks like its about it. BA had him 97th in CA.

R27 – Marlon Mitchell, C (Hillsborough HS, FL) – Don’t have any info on him, but judging from his scouting video, he doesn’t quite have a cannon for an arm. But I don’t have anything here, BA didn’t rank him in FL.

R28 – Justin Beal, RHP (Missouri Southern State) – Another senior, another guy I have nothing on. Sorry

R29 – Mark Doll, RHP (Southern Polytechnic State) – See Beal, Justin.

R30 – Stephen Kohlscheen, RHP (Cowley County, KS) – Kohlscheen was the top JuCo guy in Kansas, 4th overall in the state. His dad is a Midwest crosschecker for the Phillies, so that explains it to a degree. He’s really tall (6’7), so if the Phillies think they can unlock more velocity, its not a bad shout.

What’s weird is, they took lots of uninteresting senior signs here in the 11-30 range. Susac and Stewart are really the only interesting guys here (from my point of view), which kind of makes me wonder what the plan is for tomorrow. Maybe they are planning on popping a whole lot of high school guys in their last 20 picks and knew they’d have time to make some phone calls tonight after they saw what happened in rounds 4-30. They’ve got a lot of projects in our 2-10, and then they’ve got 2 interesting guys after that. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

60 thoughts on “Day 2 draft thoughts

  1. Good stuff and thanks for all the work.

    I really like Colvin, although, as you note, his delivery needs to be cleaned up (few HS pitchers deliveries don’t). He’s really throwing hard across his body. In the one video you can see how the cross body release is pushing him to the first base side of the bag.

    Aside from the obvious, Inch, Colvin, Singelton, Susac, I’m intrigued by Sasaki based on his size (6’5, 215) and success in a baseball hotbed. The MLB writeup has his fastball under 90, but with “a lot of movement”.

  2. Great detail, enjoyable write-up.

    I said it earlier, it shaped up to be a weird draft. Maybe they’ll just blow their whole budget on Colvin or have verbal commitments in Latin America that they plan on spending on because I don’t see how much money at all was spent today.

  3. Fantastic write up!

    I truly feel that the Phillies are going after every risk pick.

    Here’s why, the amount of college seniors is stunning. They should all be 5-10K guys. That should leave plenty of money for Susac(Someone should show him the OSU success rate, unless I’m forgetting someone, it’s unimpressive), Colvin, Singleton and maybe Stewart.

    I can almost guarantee you they have a deal in place for Dugan. I doubt Hudson is far behind(although I wouldn’t mind him pricing himself out).

    I also have to think they have a relationship with Inch. I don’t they have ever taken a notable Canadian before.

    Still some top players out there for tomorrow. Should be fun.

  4. didn’t think this site was affiliated with the phillies. not sure why there are so many ‘we’ references in this post. should be phillies, phils, or they.

  5. Yea, as a fan you don’t do anything to make the Phillies. All you do is watch the games on TV to increase the ratings in turn getting more sponsors, go to the games at CBP paying whatever price they decide to charge and buy merchandise. As a fan you don’t have a right to think you are a part of the Phillies. Nah, the fans that gave them the great atmosphere in the playoffs to help in getting the club a World Series which in turn got them $30 million to add into the bank account gives us no right in thinking that we are a part of the Phillies.

    Use they from now on. Fans don’t matter.

  6. The best part is that I write 4,000 words about day 2 of the draft, and the guy pointed out that I said “we”, which is a fairly common expression when talking about sports, like 5 of 6 times.

    Don’t worry, I made all the changes. I’m sure people get confused all the time and think this site is affiliated with the Phillies.

  7. Thanks for the writeup, especially slot info which is very informative

    Way apparently had a really good year and has a great changeup, so maybe he’s an intersection of value and cost

    Other than Colvin though, not too much to get excited about in the pitching prospects. Which makes him the most important sign IMO….can’t let a draft go by with no real interesting arms added

  8. Great work, if you don’t currently have a way to monetize this site I almost feel guilty. I can’t imagine anywhere else on or off the net where the general public can get this much information; not even considering that it’s free. I know that I would gladly sort through as many advertisements as you can cram on each page in support. Say “we” as much as you want.

    Too much to sort through right now, but I like their strategy if they bust slot and get multiple signability guys on board.

    Got a text from a friend (not a Phils fan) who said that their fourth round pick is a family friend. I said that I heard he was a reach, and was told that the kid can hit like crazy. Not an official scouting report, but if Buschini somehow pans out I’ll give him credit a few years down the line.

    Keep up the good work, thanks.

  9. Colvin has to be the most important sign, right? Take him away and we don’t even have a really remotely interesting arm, which cannot be justified in an entire draft

    Although Way did have a really nice senior year, he may have actually been a warranted pick in that range and not just a money saver

  10. BA had him as the 43rd ranked talent, and Goldstein had him at 47, so that’s a big talent. The slot estimate for 2008 for the 45th overall pick would have been $849K. So I could see a bonus for him in the $750-$900K range.

  11. sounds like some one was trying to find something to complain about in your write up PP.
    I really like the sasaki pick. I have no idea why really, because i know nothing about his stuff. he put up good numbers though, especially if you take out his one bad start last year. probably will end up throwing 90 at some point. he is big, at least. if not, hope his fastball sinks like crazy.

  12. Im still wondering why Christian Walker out of Kennedy Kendrick HS still hasn’t been taken. I know he has a pretty strong commitment to the gamecocks but you would think at least one of the big spending clubs would take a flier on him. This kid is rated in the top 3 in the draft Power wise with the only guys in the same sentence being Davidson and Bochering. I really hope the phillies take a look at him, he played 3rd and i’ve heard he has a good arm and good footwork. I really think the phillies need a power bat to compliment all of the toolsy guys we have. Really cant rationalize not taking a run at him this late in the draft.

  13. Great write-up.

    Colvin, Inch and Singleton are VERY intriguing. Stewart sounds great too. I feel like we took a few risks, but not enough, especially pitching. Hopefully we take some upside risks the next day.

    Hopefully Hudson asks for the moon, because I think he’s a career minor leaguer if that. I think Dugan could be a solid player, though.

  14. The first two picks will be signed, I wouldn’t be shocked if they sign for the slot money. There’s a reason they grabbed them in those rounds, most likely because they gave indications that they would sign.

    Inch doesn’t intrigue me too much, just seems too raw at the moment. Someone who definitely could use some time in college. Same with Altharr

    Colvin, Singleton pretty much make the draft. One of the HS catchers and Sasaki would be nice.

    Zied, was actually a big time prospect coming out of HS. He was ranked pretty highly, went to Vandy completely fell apart and transferred to Tulane. I read something about his velocity this year in the 92-94 range, he could be intriguing out of the pen if he throws that hard. Add on 2 mph on his fastball and he could be someone who makes for a good reliever.

    If Stewart goes to college, I’m almost certain we’ll be drafting him in 3 years as long as he’s around when we pick….

  15. Hey PP I agree with you 100% about the first round. Also, where are the 3B, C, and infield prospects? I see this as being a weak draft.

  16. Anonymous Says:

    didn’t think this site was affiliated with the phillies. not sure why there are so many ‘we’ references in this post. should be phillies, phils, or they.

    Unsigned of course. an E-coward. Lets storm his castle.
    WE can do they. Put this one on the top of the list.

  17. I really have very little to add as far as commentary here, other than to echo 1) the thanks to James for compiling this exhaustive and insightful body of information, and 2) the fairly obvious point that this draft doesn’t seem as exciting as last year’s. But it’s the same cast of decision-makers absent Arbuckle, whom I think had delegated most of the draft responsibilities to Wolever and his crew. And it would be surprising if they didn’t have money to spend, given the championship spillover, great ticket and merch sales, etc.

    I didn’t read through the whole thread from Day 1, but it sounds like there was some flack aimed at James for expressing criticism of the early-round picks rather than bestowing a series of sloppy wet ones on the club. This is kind of an interesting premise to me: how much benefit of the doubt has the organization earned, and where have they earned it?

    The Gillick/Amaro/Arbuckle regime (and throw Wade in there if you want) built a champion, and the core of that champion was home-grown. But the kicker to me is that none of those home-grown stars and key second-tier guys (Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Burrell, Myers, Madson) fit the categories of “typical Phillies draft picks”: super-toolsy athletes of the Jeff Jackson/Reggie Taylor/Greg Golson/Anthony Hewitt mode, or young pitchers with big fastballs and little else. Add in that they continued to make bad strategic and resource allocation decisions, from taking Gavin Floyd and Golson when better guys were on the board to not ponying up for the likes of Joe Saunders, and I think some criticism is easily justifiable. The role of the team is to make the best decisions they can with the information they have (and to spin the hell out of it, obviously); the role of the informed fan and (using the term loosely) reporter is to constantly demand that they do even more, even better.

  18. College seniors I believe re-enter the draft. See the Josh Fields/Mariners negotiations last year. The difference in negotiating with a college senior is that you are not bound to the August 15th deadline.

    Another key to watch this season is that apparently slot recommendations have been scaled back 10% or so.

  19. I’m sorry. I didn’t want to respond to this but darn it, I had to.

    To anonymous/blues, in my neck of the woods, “we” have a saying, “We are We and They are They.” We refers to me, my family, my friends, my community, my sports teams, my world. They refers to everyone else: my enemies, outsiders, the people who are against me, the Mets, Marlins, Red Sox, Hoovertown Bearcats and possibly you. You’re the guy who walks into a bar in Beantown and yells, “Go Yankees.”

    Now back to our regularly scheduled Draft discussion.

  20. The Inky seems to think Dugan will sign today. The west coast scout is on the set of Adam Sandler’s new movie with Kelly and his father.

    I’m sure he’s signing at slot if he’s signing already.

  21. I really don’t know what pp and a lot of people on here know but to me , They went back to el cheapo by taking so many low celiling college seniors. 5’8 303 hitting seniors.thats stupid to me they for some reason either thought there wasn;t much out there and didn’t think it was worth the money . I remember when they took overbeck hamilton I didn’t like the picks, and still don’t I would never take a low ceiling college seniors, like hamilton he is twenty four and still in low a why? org filler. we have a lot of them already, look at reading and lv roster, take a high school kid who isn’t top and try to develop him. maybe he has a good arm or speed instead of a overbeck, uhl. ruff, a waste of scouting , if in my opinion you load up on hard to signs it better than these guys who you draft to fill out a roster, I want guys who have at least a chance.

  22. Good write-up.

    Not sure why we (the Phillies) spent so many picks on OF’ers, especially the college seniors in the later rounds. Have no problem with us(the Phillies) drafting their board in the first few rounds regardless of position but by the time you get to into the teens-20’s it is time to start drafting to fill organization holes.

    Guess there will be quite a few minor league FA’s filling up rosters again in 2010.

    Have to think that the # of college seniors taken signals that the Phillies are going to target a few of the tougher signs and spend their money there vs. spreading it around on what was considered a weak draft.

  23. After last year, it’s hard to get excited about the current draft crop. I also wonder if somebody can speak to the quality of this particular draft. I may be mistaken but it seemed like last year’s draft was much deeper and stronger. Is it possible WE’RE saving money and picks for a stronger draft?

  24. See, and I thought it was obvious what the Phillies were doing. They’re clearly planning to try the revolutionary new 7 OF defense. They thought the 5 man IF was a great idea, so they’re trying a new twist on it.

    Nope, I’ve got nothing. Just a strange draft in general, but if they get all the signability picks in, it’ll still go down as a good draft methinks.

  25. I kinda like what the Phils did, and am a little surprised that there isn’t more in the way of hedging after the uproar early. In the end they ended up with a fair share of top200 talent, 5 if I counted right, and given their draft position, that seems about right. Moreover, they seem to have taken enough name prospects that they can reasonably spend a legitimate draft budget, and in the end that’s the only fair way to judge a draft at this point. Really, I’m ok so long as they aren’t just being cheap. We’ll see if they do that come August 17th.

  26. I have no idea how this is all going to pan out but maybe just maybe they took all those College Seniors because they knew these late round hard to sign guys are going to take a ton of money to ink them. Or it has something to do with all the money they ate by releasing Eaton and Jenkins perhaps the draft is where they are making up some ground in terms of saving money.

  27. Who knew last year that Cisco would advance ? I give it a week and a half . Just kidding for you senstive ones.
    Some pick are so weird they have to have a rabbit up their
    uniform.

  28. A lot is still up in the air until we see who signs among the guys who have eligibility remaining in college.

  29. also, something I was thinking about during the draft. but it seems like a legit strategy to hold off on taking the big name guys who are falling in favor of some of the slot-level guys and seniors you really want, because once a guy like Colvin or Stewart is out of the first 2 or 3 rounds, it’s a reasonable bet they will be there later on. If for some reason the Phils really wanted Dugan, Hudson, Way and Buschini, maybe they had to take them where they did, or they’d be gone. On the other hand, if after the first 2 rounds, they identified a handfull of high-bonus guys who didn’t get taken, it was prudent to let them fall to a lower pick where at least some of them would likely be. I don’t know, just thinking out loud.

  30. Thanks for the info and the write-up, James. Here’s who I hope they sign in my dream world, in order:

    1. Colvin – RHP – looks like the best combo of ceiling and probability
    2. Singleton – 1B – power potential, still only 17
    3. Stewart – OF – combination of brains and athleticism
    4. Susac – C – high value position, high ceiling
    5. Dugan – 1B/OF – looks like he has some polish and pop
    6. Hudson – OF – athleticism and high ceiling in general
    7. Sasaki – LHP – I like the sound of a big LHP from TX. Perhaps his velo can tick up with mechanics tweaks?
    8. Inch – RHP – Seems to me there’s some upside here to a big frame and arm without a lot of mileage

    The rest of the guys seem pretty likely to sign, except for Altherr, Hernandez, and Mitchell. So to me, the above list is the “premium” talents we drafted, barring what happens today. I welcome any comments on that list. I hope the Phils step up and sign most of them.

    It seemed to me from some quotes last year that the Phils rank their tough signs and if they can’t get one, then they go after the next one on the list (I recall those comments from the Coy negotiations, I think). Considering that Hudson, Stewart, and Altherr have similar profiles, does it make sense that the Phils would rank them in that order and hence only go hard after Atherr if Stewart doesn’t sign? Similarly they might only go after Inch hard if they can’t get Sasaki (or vice versa)?

    I also wonder who will be their “summer follows” who play with a traveling team through August to see if they warrant the bonus they’re asking for. Susac certainly seems like a candidate for that.

    Last comment is that it is so strange to me that they drafted so many position inflexible guys. I would personally focus a little more on guys who play up the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) and can be moved later if need be.

  31. Okay, there is one thing I don’t get, and maybe someone can explain it to me. If their goal is to throw money at someone like Susac and convince him to forego college, why do they wait until the 16th round to take him? If the college players drafted before him are really just organizational filler and they will have to bust slot to sign Susac, why not take him much earlier, not risk losing him, and not bust slot quite as badly as they will for having drafting him in the 16th? It would appear to someone that isn’t as knowledeable about how the MLB draft works (me), that by drafting someone so late, they really don’t think they have much of a chance of signing him.

    By the way, PhuturePhillies, you’ve done an outstanding job summarizing the draft for us and it’s appreciated. However, I am personally offended by the word “the” and would appreciate it if you would no longer use it in your write-ups. Thanks.

  32. Great write-up PP!

    I don’t mind a few toolsy OF’s in Phils draft, but this is getting silly. How about some flyers on high risk high reward 3b/ss/2b? Glad to see them draft some raw power though.

    I think the Pirates are a good example of a team being enamored with speedy OF’s. You better have some power in your IF positions (which they don’t) if you’re going to have an OF of Nyjer Morgan, Andrew McCutcheon and Gorkys Hernandez.

  33. IMO if a guy wants x rd money but no 1 takes him in or near that round then hes just going to slide till someone takes a flier on him. The College SRs who are more than likely org fillers are being picked in or around the rd they were expected to. Most of the slides can be taken a lot later than the Phills are grabbing them. Perhaps they just didnt have a guy who they liked so they picked their top flier. This kind of thing happens all the time even in the 1st round with a guy like Procello who was clearly the best HS player in the draft but slide down to what #28 to det. It all comes down to who is willing to shell out the cash to steal them away from School.

  34. They knew his demands before they took him like I stated earlier maybe they are just going to give him 1st rd money since they dont have a 1st rd pick. If they do throw the $ at him he is essentially their 1st rounder for the year it would be a reach if it actually happened but its about the money not the round selected.

  35. My guess here is that we DON’T sign Hudson. That we only sign 6 picks out of the first 9. They will drop a boat load on Singleton and then sign Colvin OR Susac and a late rounder today for big money. I think all these college senior picks were made in attempt to save money for the few quality picks that fell.

  36. Thats exactly what I was thinking, but if they are willing to spend the same as 08 then I can see them getting more than just 7 tough signs. Just like Dugan and Stewart they know what $ these kids want. They got all their tough signs last year and were willing to give in to demands. Even Workman if I recall correctly hes said 3rd rd $ would get it done so we drafted him in 3rd rd and he wanted more. Im sure we knew what it would take for that other fish that got away (forgot his name) we offered him a large sum but he said no thanks. IMO if a kid gets his initial demands then gets greedy you dont give in.

  37. I hope Stewart signs but I think it is highly doubtful. There was an article in the Fort Collins paper the other day that basically said his dad is steering the ship as far as signing and negotiations. His dad was a 1st team all american at Virginia Tech in the early 80’s who never made it past AA so is a guy that understands that you have to be prepared for life after baseball regardless of whether or not baeball works out. Stanford is a great place to get an education to ensure that you are prepared for that and as a result I think the money he will require to pass that up will be too much. I sure hope Im wrong though.

  38. The Stewart article talks about a $1M price. That actually sounds somewhat reasonable – not sure where that slot is these days – maybe end of 1st round or sandwich. $1.5M would be way too much, but taking a chance on a great athlete who is also a smart kid seems a good risk in a year without a number one.

    Realistically I think the Phillies only drafted him as a fallback in case they failed to sign their other top OF picks.

  39. Fantastic write up. Thanks a lot. It seems like unlike last year when I was intrigued and excited by the players we drafted, this year it seems what is most interesting is the Phillies strategy. If we/they don’t sign colvin/susac/singelton, I am going to be super confused. Signing the above slot guys who fell has to be the reason for the overdrafts and college senior picks, right? please. I hope.

  40. I’d be very disappointed if we don’t get him. Come on do it! Pump some coin into the system!

  41. All these guys seem to have a magic number. I imagine the Phillies wouldn’t’ve taken them unless they planned on matching at least a few of them.

  42. Thanks PP, great stuff as usual.

    So far, I’m disappointed, but with the low possition I was kind of expecting that. WILL pointed out that we drafted 5 of BA’s top 200. The average team should be able to grab 6/7, so our low possition probably hurt us there. Plus, the guys we did take are tough signs.

    Lots of outfielders, and a few college arms. Plety of that in the system already. I really want to see us pick some HS arms today. If Colvin doesn’t sign then we basically won’t end up with a legit pitching prospect (Sasaki, and Inch are lower profile).

  43. I thought Susac was one of the players that we were less likely to sign but from his comment that gives us a bit of hope. It seems like he really does want to play pro ball.

  44. if the phillies were smart with Stewart, they would make a deal that gives him the money he wants, but also allows him to take classes and assures him the ability to attend one of our schools like Penn, Swarthmore or Princeton.

  45. I found two relatively useless pieces of info on Marlon Mitchell from tampabay.com. They had a brief draft preview blog mentioning all the local prospects and said this: Marlon Mitchell, C, Hillsborough: N.C. State recruit has long been a showcase darling.

    Here is the article on him from college signing day: http://blogs.tampabay.com/preps/2008/08/hillsboroughs-m.html It says at the end scouts told him he could be drafted in first 3 rounds, but that was before this Spring’s season. He really does look like Tiger Woods.

  46. An excellent synopsis, Thanks!

    Very disappointed in this draft to date.

    Outside of: Colvin, Singleton, Dugan, Sasaki, Stewart & Susac, it does not appear that we drafted many real prospects. If we are able to sign Colvin and at least 4 of these other guys, we may have something … but … to me, Colvin is the key.

    On the large number of OF’s drafted, I still believe that the Phils are preparing to trade 1 or more of our present OF prospects and they may have some concerns with more than one of our highly touted prospects at Lakewood.

    Thanks again, GREAT JOB, as always!

  47. I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together…GOO GOO GA JOOB!!!

    Anyway, does signing Colvin make the draft a success? I mean, he would make up for our lack of a 1st round pick and he looked great for a HS arm in his video.

  48. Also, great writeup PP. These posts are the reason I check your site on a daily basis. No where else will I ever get this type of info on our minor leagues.

  49. Nuggets…

    8th round pick Jonathan Singleton, 1B
    School & Hometown: Millikan HS; Long Beach, CA
    Specs: 6′2, 220, Bats L, Throws L
    Skinny: Singleton is a big, left-handed, power-hitting first baseman that put on a show at the PG National Showcase HR Derby, winning he contest while hitting a number of balls in the upper deck at the MetroDome. Singleton has also shown some solid hitability and athleticism, but make no mistake; his lefty power is his calling card and his meal ticket.

    Brody Colvin is another notable 2nd day draftee… a big HS RH pitcher (6′4″ 185 lbs) from St. Thomas More (LA). Scouts say that he has a lively 93 MPH fastball and a 70-73 MPH slurve that needs attention. He was high on the Mets’ radar screen… he was ranked the 43rd best draft prospect pitcher by baseball america.

    Adam Buschini… a versatile infielder hit .422 for a reputable Cal Poly team. Ranked in the top 20 in batting average with a formidable .488 OBP… should be higher, considering his .422 ba but his .730 slugging percentage is certainly likeable.

    Stephen Kohlscheen… was drafted in 2007 by the Florida Marlins; chose to play baseball for junior college Cowley County Community College (made it to the JUCO Division 1… team ERA below 3). Kohlscheen is a monster (6′7″, 205 lbs).

    Susac… a sub 1.9 pop time is pretty good for anyone, let alone a HS’er (makes me question how accurate it is). That’s why he’s rated so high… possibly the best defensive catcher in the draft (the strongest arm) but he might not amount to much at the plate. The other catcher we drafed, Kyle Lafrenz, was drafted by the Giants in 2007, chose to transfer and play for Indiana State… has some pop and a legit 1.9 pop time is pretty good.

    How about this little nugget… Mark Doll, 2008 SSAC pitcher of the year, has compiled a record of 21-3 over the past two seasons pitching for S. Poly State University. 6 complete games this year… 20 BB’s in 67 ip… most notably, Mark’s teammate and fellow senior: Drew Saberhagen. In case you’re wondering, his father would be Bret.

  50. Has anyone seen Nicholas Hernandez in person? Do we have video or a radar reading on this guy? He’s dominating with great control and I am intrigued…

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