Jason Donald is getting his first start of the year at third base tonight. Newly acquired David Newhan is at SS, with Carlos Ruiz, back in the lineup once again catching and hitting 7th. Unfortunately, Donald made an error on his first chance at third, but is making up for it at the plate, with two hits and an RBI, thus far on the evening.
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can I be the first person to say it?
YAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t know about anyone else, but Donald, Taylor, Carrasco, Mayberry, Knapp, etc etc might be the next great core of young players similar to the ones the Phils had from 00-04 (Hamels, Rollins, Howard, Myers, etc.) Just exciting.
Watch for Brown in Clearwater to heat up as well,he’s got all the tools
As for me I am glad I dont have to pitch to the “REALLY BIG MEN’S CLUB” Looking at Taylor swinging a bat must be scary.
I suspect Donald to take the new situation and run with it
Brown is heating up as you write.
He, like Taylor, has had a great week or so. He’s 6/16, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 RS, BB, 0 K in his last 3 games while throwing a guy out at the plate the other night.
Good to see Donald get a start at 3B. If I had my way, he’d start every 5th game at the position providing him with enough experience to hone his skill at the position while not hurting his external value to a team in need of a future SS with some pop in his bat and solid defensive skills.
Perhaps the most interesting sub-plot will be Ruiz catching Carrasco tonight. I’m sure Rube will be talking to Ruiz about how he thought Carrasco looked this evening and how he reacted to Ruiz’s coaching/signal calling.
finally donald gets a start at 3b, theres no point to keep playing him at SS this year when he will never be playing that position with the phillies in the future, he needs to get regular time at third
A couple of games at 2nd wouldn’t hurt either . cant hurt
PGD, the point is that Donald maximizes his value at SS. So, if the Phillies have other plans for Donald than most of the readers of this site do, then that would be the reason.
You’d probably want a 3rd baseman to be hitting better than .244/.286/.384. He needs to start hitting in order to provide the people who want him to play 3rd at the Major League level with some ammo.
With Ruiz catching at AAA tonight, Carrasco has thus far thrown 3 innings of 1 hit ball with a pretty gosh darn awesome 7 k’s. Donald also has one error on the evening.
Entirely unrelated- but Park is not an effective starter. John and nowheels, I know I nitpick your posts about the ML rotation and how they need to make a change…. I’m not one of those “the sky is falling” type of people over one game, but I think maybe they should give Carrasco his shot when Park’s turn next comes around. It is convenient that they are on the same pitching schedule.
they should give happ,kendrick carrasco or the ghost of g.c. alexander a shot. this is ridiculous. youll never win trying to come from behind way behind every game.this is not the sky is falling this is reality.
“but I think maybe they should give Carrasco his shot ”
I think Carrasco shouldn’t be called up this year until he really puts together a long string of high quality starts- 6-8 inning solid type stuff. His stuff is major league ready, but his head just seems a bit like Floyd. Too much too fast could put him on a couple year delay to get his head straight again.
so far so good . Feliz is going great ,once he starts great ,or starts bad he usually continues the trend for the whole year, but next year Jd fits. He doesnt fit storehouse thinking about
third base but he gets on .In a lineup full of sluggers well that works here
“The fish” is absolutely right. I saw Carrasco pitch in ST and he’s nowhere near ready to pitch in the bigs – not as long as so much of the game is mental. Tonight’s game was a good example of this – he was going along great until he ran into some adversity (= fielding errors). Then he
fell apart. Not the first time I’ve seen this happen to him. Great stuff does not necessarily go with the self-confidence and mental toughness needed to make a successful ML’er.
maybe if donald got to face lefties every night he would keep raising that average, he finally had a big game and dontrelle was on the mound
Carrasco needs more time in AAA, until he can put it together mentally there’s no reason to rush him up. You can’t blow up any time an error or two occur.
Skunky Hey man we finally agree on something.
CHANG HO OUTOFTHEPARK has to go. Maybe he can relieve
but i didnt like his attitude and didnt like him dictating to
management (I would rather trade him and bring up Majeski or Koplove or ……..
since i have only seen carrasco a couple of times its hard to judge but his mental approach seemed fine but once again i havent seen him enough. i have seen kendreck enough to know he is better and tougher than park. you simply cant go out and already have lost 20% of your games.
Last night was a disgrace and now some doubt about Hamels
who cant seem to get lefties out. They have to dip into the minors soon. But they seem to think that Ruiz will solve their
problems. Therefore they will rush him back and he will get hurt again
nowheels, I am glad you did not let facts get in the way of good rants. Take the time and look at both Feliz’s April OPS compared to his yearly OPS since he became a starter in 2004 and also take a look at Hamels’ 2009 splits. You clearly just make things up from time to time. It is very off topic, so that is all I am going to say.
I am a big Donald fan, and hate Felix. That being said how much of a upgrade would donald be. First he isn’t a third basemen, second he hasn’t shown power, At least with Felix you get 260-270 hitter with some pop, who can field ,with one of the most accurate arms this town has ever seen, Not a lot of range but adquate, is Donald beside salary relief. a upgrade?
i forgot, marson is a better defensive catcher than coste and his offense will only get better. to play coste over marson is negligent. ruiz i still believe will hit better than he did last year, not hard, but i believe hes in the 250 range 10 hrs. whats the hamels comment nw did i miss something about hamels, hes looked great his last two outings.
mm donald may never be the defensive 3rd baseman feliz is but by years end and in the future he imo will be a 300 20 80 man. plus hes what 7 years younger? with a healthy back. i dont think money fits in based on what the phils did this year. all of us know jason will never play 2nd or ss here so its 3rd, which is what ive been saying for over a year.
neduolcaz again you are competely and utterly right
Why bring up Carrasco, who is not consistent yet, when you have Happ, who looks like a more effective pitcher than Park today and is physically and mentally MLB ready?
MM: Seems the glass is half empty for you with Donald. I see the glass 3/4 full. Donald is a .290-.300, 20-80 guy from 2-hole or 6-hole with high OBP, smart ABs and adequate to above avg fielding by his second year. Sure he will have adjustment period, bt anyone switching positions would. You have to invest to gain.
Clearly all here will ignore your lack of contributions and enjoy your personal attacks neduolcaz
john I hope your right but don’t see it, Projection are nice, but he is twenty four and hasn’t shown power in smaller minor parks Facing maybe a future major league pitcher, about maybe twice a week.. So to say he is a twenty plus player, to me is based on hope and nothing else.
Hard to write Jd off until he fails at something
i may be wrong but i believe brighthouse and reading are larger than cbp dont know about lhv.on a personal note i remember that projections were and still all we have, but in some instances projections as outdated and silly as this sounds are a scout recognizing something in a player even with average numbers and putting his job on the line for the kid. mike ryan once had to break up a potential brawl between myself and deron johnson over julio franco in chicago,fun night. i was right.
I thought Reading was rather small . Fun night eh Couldn’t you someone smaller than DJ
Btw i resented how theu got Franco out of town then praised him after he retired
I’m sorry for opening the can of worms and even mentioning Park.
Anyway, does anyone know if Kendrick has been mixing his pitches? His cosmetic numbers are good (2.77 era) but his peripherals, as all ways, are mediocre. (1.42 whip 1.52 go/ao). I was just curious if he’s just been getting minor leaguers out with his sinker or if he’s actually been improving his change and slide piece. Has anyone seen him pitch?
From Kendrick’s history I think he had better bring Huppert and crew with him. I have followed Dubee since his Florida days and remain unimpressed even with Moyer as guru to the younger guys
Cleary OUTOFTHEPARK days starter days are number , The only question is who comes up
skunky dont be sorry man the reason we all talk about the donalds ,carrascos,taylors,etc is who will help the big team and write now this team needs pitching.
John If I remember right Franco put up some good numbers in the minors, the knock on him was fielding, he had power speed , a five tool player, donald isn’t a five tool prospect.
your right mm but the problem really wasnt his fielding anymore than sandberg couldnt play 2nd.they wanted him and lonnie smith gone for reasons that had nothing to do with baseball. so they told the media von hayes was the next ted williams.
Um, what evidence is there at all that Jason Donald will hit 20+ HRs in the majors?
To me, his most likely projection is about .280/.350/.430 with 12-15 HRs and 25-30 doubles. A guy who would get on base more than Feliz, but hit with slightly less power and be worse defensively. He’s not a guy you should build around at 3rd base. Sorry.
Sorry I don’t get the enthusiasm over Donald. Sometimes you do get a case where there is a divergence between what the numbers say and what the scouts say, but not here – numbers and scouts both say backup at the major league level, or maybe starter for a non-contender. His offense would be okay for shortstop, but marginal at best for a 3B.
The people here who are predicting that he will be an outstanding hitter in the majors – I’m looking at you John – upon what, exactly, are you basing your opinions? The numbers, properly interpreted, are against you. So I guess you are saying that the number don’t reflect his true potential. What is your basis for that opinion? Have you guys seen him play? How much?
There is IMO a lot of that on these boards – people with sky high projections of Phillies prospects which appear to be based upon … nothing.
I think Reggie Taylor’s projection is even a little too optimistic. Baseball Prospectus doesn’t project even that much offense from him. Now, sure, numbers aren’t everything; if the scouts were prodicting better things from him I could see discounting the BP projections, but they’re not.
Reggie Taylor –
Of course Jason Donald isn’t a guy you build around at 3B, but neither is Feliz. Donald is not going to be a guy like Rolen or Schmidt that you build around, but he can be a very solid 3B and member of the supporting cast around the guys the Phillies will build around. For the intermediate future, that is still Utley, Howard, Rollins. Perhaps Taylor and Brown in the future. Marson will also be in the strong supporting cast category. No team can afford the sort of guy you build a team around at every position. Donald will be a good player.
And on the question of is Carrasco ready and is he mentally strong enough, I think the answer from last night was no and no. His 3 run inning yielded all unearned runs because of two IF errors, but he also fell apart, forcing in two of the runs on a walk to a guy he was up 1 – 2 on and a HBP to the next batter. Not what you are looking for from a guy you might promote to major league roster. His fastball also seemed to be sitting a couple mph slower than he is normally credited with last night.
Allentown: When I say build around, I mean a guy you should plan on having in your starting lineup. When Feliz’s contract is done after this year, I would rather explore an upgrade through FA or trade, because Donald is not a guy I want as a starting 3rd baseman every day.
The problem with what is considered the “prototypical thirdbaseman” is that there aren’t many of them in the major leagues. There are only around 10 or so in all of baseball. The rest of the teams get by with players that would be considered band-aids by most on this board. There are certainly more “David Bells than Evan Longorias”.
I remember reading projections on Kevin Youkilis when he was a prospect by the Red Sox. He was called the Greek God of Walks(despite not being Greek), the question on him, even at the AAA level was whether or not he would hit enough to play 3B. He was constantly being bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors(despite playing well) until he was finally out of options and was given a chance. How’s that working out?
Agree with Allentown and Slinging.Southpaw.
-Sure Donald does not project as a star 3B. No one has said that. But as SS says, only about 1/3 of teams have that.
-Also, Donald still has risk, he could be a .260, 10 HR guy in majors with .330 OBP. In that case, he fails to fill the 3B gap.
-But he has a very solid track record, extremely consistent moderate power, walk rate, BA, extra base power. All this in minors, where he gets a bit better as he rises (a good indicator), outstanding performance ona global stage and in AFL with future stars (but agree pitching is lax in that league, except for a few–but that’s not his fault). Sild above avg to outstanding performance.
-Mike Schmidt, Davey Johnson, many others have confiremed his off the chart intelligence, hard work and competitiveness.
-All that together tells me he deserves a chance to succeed or fail at 3B, unless they get a top-tier starting pitcher for a package with Donald.
-Even if you downgrade him to 15 HR, 35 2B, .350 OBO, solid fielding, that could put him in top half of MLB 3Bs or at least better than 1/3 of them, IMO.
-He should get the shot next year, IMO.
Slinging Southpaw makes a nice point. In 2008, espn.com has 18 3Bs that qualified for the batting title. The midpoint for OBP was .342 and the midpoint for SLG was .460. I think it is eminently reasonable to think Jason Donald could be an .800 OPS player in the majors (considering his .300/.390/.490 or so lines at A+ and AA). So that would make him an average offensive third baseman, with (one would hope) above-average defense. For the first few years, while he’s cheap, that sounds like a good deal to me.
Anonymous: 15 HR, 35 2B, .350 OBP is a downgrade? To me, that seems like a rather optimistic projection. He’s hit a total of 27 home runs in over 1200 minor league plate appearances, and yet now you think it’s a pessimistic projection to give him 15 in a season at the major league level?
People on here really need to be more realistic about our prospects. I’ve never read anything from a single scout or analyst saying Donald would be even an average 3rd baseman. I like the guy, and think he’ll be a fine major league 2nd baseman or utility guy (or SS if his glove can play there), but I’ll be very surprised if he sticks as a major league 3rd baseman.
Reggie, on the defensive side, no one really knows about his ability to play 3B because he hasn’t done it very much yet. But the baseline assumption is that, defensively, SS is harder than 3B. Keith Law, for one, thinks he can play an MLB SS. Hence, it is logical to think he could play an MLB 3B.
For his career .294 and .280 OBP while these are minor league
number they were his peers at the time. Now scouts want to discount everything he has done . I have seen him hit two hrs in one game. He deserves a chance FAs can wreck your club
if they dont work out. Your guys you can send back
sorry 380 OBP
” they were his peers at the time”
And most of those peers will never make the majors. Even fewer will be regulars.
I think maybe I realize now one of the reasons why people here over-project our prospects – they think that minor league numbers are directly predictive of major league numbers. It isn’t so, never has been. Yes, if properly adjusted, minor league numbers are predictive of major league performance. But they need to be adjusted.
Of course, the irony here is that some of you are projecting that Donald will be dramatically better than his minor league stats (in terms of his power numbers). That’s crazy; it happens, but almost never.
BP projects him to be no better than .247/.324/402. That may be a little low, but I expect it’s closer to reality than the wild predictions in this thread.
He isn’t a regular for a contending team as a shortstop. He sure as heck isn’t as a a thrid baseman.
Now, we don’t know who is going to be available in trade or free agency – we may well be forced to use him as a stopgap. But that would be a bad thing, not a good thing.
“FAs can wreck your club”
So can trying to make backups into regulars.
very mechanical of you but ok when I get a chance I will review what last years FAs did for their teams and get back to you
Every time Jd has been in competion with higher projected prospects he has outperformed them. Ask BP why
It really is not unusual for power to increase as players grow older and physically mature during a normal age appropriate path through the minors to the major leagues. Donald has followed this pattern with an increase in HR rate at each step up the ladder, despite the quality of pitching improving with each step. Donald did fine on power last season, with 14 HR in 362 AB at Reading and an OPS of .888. If he weren’t off to a slow start this season, I don’t even think we would be discussing whether or not his bat is good enough to be a major league starter. The Phillies don’t need a ton of HR from their 3B with the power they have at other positions. This is good, since they haven’t gotten power from Bell or Feliz. Some make the counter argument that just because you have a great hitting 2B and above average 3B doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go for a FA that gives you traditional 3B power. But that misses the point that you can’t afford to spend that much on FA. $400K for Donald vs $5 mill for a FA and losing our first round draft pick again. I’ll go with Donald. Our offense is and will be ok. The improvement is needed in the pitching.
He works in the Phils lineup and that is all that counts.Coste over Marson a big mistake.
Btw. did you see Ibanez go from secand to third on a ground ball to Reyes that is hustle Or how he went to left on an outside pitch Sorry i had to vent . Completely impressed
I keep trying to compare Donald to Utley during their respective minor league careers and then I look at the stats and remember again how difficult it is to do because Utley skipped Reading. Each was at Clearwater during their age 22 season, but Donald started at Lakewood that season. But for comparisons’ sake, JD’s stats are considerably better: .300/.386/.491 vs. .257/.324/.422 I’m not sure if Utley was learning a new position (3b) that season or not, which might have adversely affected his numbers. Utley’s age 23 season was spent at 3b at SWB and he produced: .263/.352/.461, which Donald could match if he heats up this year at age 24, while possibly learning a new position. Utley’s age 24 season, back at 2b, at SWB produced .323/.390/.517–very nice.
Fun Fact: Utley made 1165 plate app. at SWB. Good grief!!
The Ed Wade-led Phillies signed David Bell, you see, and….a tale for another day, perhaps.
Not predicting Donald’s career parallels Utley’s, just providing a rationale for optimism
allentown Says:
It really is not unusual for power to increase as players grow older and physically mature during a normal age appropriate path through the minors to the major leagues
Not only is not unusual for normal humans it is the way things
go. Except for guys like Caberra,Pujols etc. As for me if JD only makes a supersub fine but I believe there is no stat for heart
larry allentown in #51 put it most succinctly so i wont repeat what ive said 800 TIMES. and as far as being too enamored by prospects its the other way,i see 4 mlb definites marson donald carrasco and drabek. your maybes are brown taylor and mayberry your possibles are knapp cloyd dont know enough about stutes and worley. out of 100 prospects thats pretty good. if a organization has 8 players who eventually see the bigs there doing good.i dont know what scouts you know larry but i suggest they find another line of work. but there is only one thing that will settle this when donald plays regularly.as usual good post nw and keep it up horsehide.
Donald’s numbers were also similar to Marlon Byrd’s at Reading. He’s turned into a serviceable player, but not even a regular. It’s no sure thing.
I have a comp. for Donald that will cause a bit of a ruckus. How about Kevin Youkilis? They are both 6’ 1”. Donald’s 190; Youk is 220. Youk was born in March and Donald in Sept. Ages are similar but the 6 month difference in time of year makes Donald appear younger. I remember hearing all the arguments about Youk. In fact he was in every trade rumor for a couple of years. He doesn’t have the power to play 3rd and so on. Here’s the minor league stats side by side.
YR LG AGE G HR RBI Avg/ OBP/ OPS
Youk
01 NYPL 22 59 3 28 .317/.512/.976
_________________________________
Donald
06 NYPL 21 63 1 24 .258/.343/.700
===================================
Youk
02 FSL 23 78 3 48 .295/.422/.810
02 East 23 44 5 26 .344/.462/.962
_________________________________
Donald
07 SAL 22 51 4 30 .310/.409/.856
07 FSL 22 83 8 41 .300/.386/.877
===================================
Youk
03 East 24 94 6 37 .327/.487/.952
03 IL 24 32 2 15 .165/.295/.543
_______________________________________
Donald
08 East 23 92 14 54 .307/.391/.888
No two players are alike and someone will try to choke me with my own stats but the discussions were similar at this point in their careers. They seem to have similar fielding stats but Youk never played SS in the minors or majors. Donald has almost been exclusively a SS.
Have at it.
byrds last year in the minors began a downward trend because he couldnt hit a #2 donald at every level has gotten better and he can hit a #2 which if you dont know is the biggest setback prospects have, but a more telling matter is donald is an infielder and byrd an outfielder. as a say 2nd baseman byrd would be much more valuable. donalds arrow is pointing straight up while byrds is flatlined.
Alan Says:
Donald’s numbers were also similar to Marlon Byrd’s at Reading. He’s turned into a serviceable player, but not even a regular. It’s no sure thing.
Very true by the numbers but Byrd had a terrible swing. How he wasnt corrected in the minor I do not know. He would drop
his hands almost to his waist just before he swung,making it impossible to hit a high pitch (one American league infielder whose name escapes me compensated by bending his back leg and in effect swinging on an incline not exactly upper cutting it worked for him)
It took a few years to correct this
Could someone who knows answer a question
Is there a lot of film study on opposition player during the winter????
On a related point about our youngsters – I expect next year to be salary pairing time for the Phils. Thome, Myers, Jenkins, Eaton, and probably Feliz, will be off the books. I expect a lot of the younger players with promise will get an opportunity to shine. Donald is probably one of those players although, to be honest with you, Feliz is probably the one player on the list above most likely to stay. I think Manual loves him (for better or for worse). Myers is toast.
If I calculate right that is about 37 million. Not counting coste, park, stairs. Wow I don’t know how the season will unfold, but how about the yankees, All that money and new stadium and they are playing so poor, that they are lowering prices, amazing.
Heitor Correia pitching for Lakewood in his first action of the year. Good too see him back and pitching, scoreless first with two K’s and a groundball with eyes. Loving the pharm pitching this year.
Bellman, I honestly don’t think Youkilis and Donald are comparable players. Just completely different skill sets at work, both offensively and defensively.
Youkilis is a horrible comparison to Donald. Youk is a premier defender and a great hitter at the MLB level in the AL East. Donald is not even close to that. Youk is one of the more underrated players in baseball.
I matched Youk up with Donald statistically only. Intersting thing is Youk didn’t develop power until he went to Fenway. The band box helped his power tremendously or was it maturity or something else (that to which we will not speak).
Different players yes, but statistically similar at the same point in time in their careers. They play in the same parks because the Sox and Phils minor leagues play in the same leagues. What was Youk’s upside when he was an 8th round pick? He had a great senior season at Cinn. (I think). He came into his own rising through the minors. Donald has done the same.
NEPP, you said he was a premier defender at the MLB level. Minor League stats are similar. Utley was a hack in the minors and he’s turned into a pretty good defensive player. You also said Youk is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Donald isn’t given much of a chance to stick in the Majors by most scouts. Certainly, they don’t see a 10 year starting player with a couple of all star games under his belt. Maybe in 4 or 5 years, we can bring this discussion up again. Maybe Donald will be a fire plug for the Phils / someone else or maybe we’ll be saying Jason who?
Bellman
To echo your point Utley was called “an average defender”
at the draft which means in real language he stunk but
something cant be measured
Mike Lieberthal is another example. His dad switched to catcher because he was too slow to be drafted anywhere else
but he had heart(and later mouth)
A projection is just a fancy quess
What I noticed most in the statistical comp with Donald and Youk was that youk was better than donald at every stop in just about every catagory. I don’t think that that was a great way to make a point about how good donald is.
Peripheral statistics are just sometimes a good indicator. For example, here are their minor league BB & K numbers:
Youkilis: 324 BB, 211 K
Donald: 134 BB, 237 K
Just a SLIGHT difference there, eh?
ummm…yeah…ignoring youkilis’s walk rate kinda misses the point.
i am sorry to say, but i am starting to see why scouts are negative on donald. nothing really jumps out at you. he is just good at most things, but not great at anything and he doesn’t have a real position at the mlb level.
for those of you convinced that he would be an upgrade over pedro feliz, compare him to Feliz’s AAA season:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Pedro-Feliz.shtml
Since Donald hasn’t completed his AAA season, why not compare Donald’s and Feliz’s AA seasons? Donald’s was far superior, and Donald was younger.
Also, as LarryM pointed out, BP projects Donald to have a 726 OPS in the majors. In 2006, 2007, and 2008 Feliz had OPSs of 709, 708, and 704. For the money spent, Donald is definitely preferable to Feliz at 3B. That is, unless it turns out Donald cannot defend the position, which is unlikely in my mind considering his ability to play an MLB shortstop (according to Keith Law).
i think if pedro finishes at .280-22-85 this is a non issue as the phils wil give him an extension. I’d be ok w/ a 1 year ext. and have donald be bruntlett next year. We could get him extra ab’s in fall and winter ball then get him 150-200 ab’s w/ the big club so he wouldn’t be stunted in his development. If he performs then we hand over the reigns. If pedro bats .250-17-70, i want donald because that means he really flopped after tremendous april.
It wouldn’t be an extension…they’d just use his option year that’s already in the contract for 2010.
PP Fan wrote: ummm…yeah…ignoring youkilis’s walk rate kinda misses the point.
You knew I was being sarcastic about Donald and Youk, right? Youk is by far the superior player as that stat shows us. Its not even close.
**You knew I was being sarcastic about Donald and Youk, right? Youk is by far the superior player as that stat shows us. Its not even close.**
i was agreeing with you Nepp. chastizing others for ignoring the #1 characteristic of Youk. it is silly to compare Youk to JD. not even close
**Since Donald hasn’t completed his AAA season, why not compare Donald’s and Feliz’s AA seasons? Donald’s was far superior, and Donald was younger. **
that is selective reasoning. if you think that donald will put up 33 hr this year, you need to take your rose colored glasses off. also, the age difference between donald at AA and feliz at AAA is meaningless. we are talking about a 5 months here. age is only relevant at the extremes. i.e. a 20 year old in AA. the difference of 5 months is not impactful for a prospect.
Boston Phan,
If you are going to make an argument for Donald, that’s the argument. But …
Feliz is an exceptional defender. Even assuming Donald can “defend the position,” there is no reason at all to believe that he will be an exceptional defender, or really anything better than an average defender. Especially next year, when he will have (at most) only one year’s experience at third.
I would argue that, for a third baseman, a signficant defensive edge outweighs an (arguable) slight offensive edge. And while Feliz would cost a little more than Donald, in today’s market he is dirt cheap. Look, I’m not a big Feliz fan at the end of the day. But what does it say when a prospect isn’t a clear improvement over a marginal player like Feliz? It says that he isn’t the answer.
Now, if Donald is as good as the optimists on this board think he is, and proves it with, say, a .300/.380/.500 season in triple A, I might change my tune. But I’d be suprised if he did so.
(I would also add that not every player who can play a decent shortstop can play a decent thrid base; yes, overall shortstop is a more demanding position, but the skill set is a little different. I’m not arguing that Donald won’t be a decent defender at thrid, merely that he isn’t a sure thing.)
if you think a 35 year old 3rd baseman with a lifetime average of .252 and 15 hrs per season is exceptional and should be our future for any longer than this year i have some swampland to sell you. i like petey and hes a very solid fielder but hes not brooks or schmitty in the field which too many people make him out to be because of his offensive liabilities. and unforunately once you have a bad back you always have a bad back. ill put my money on donald,literally.
This argument about Felix was done last year. Facts are so important on this site, here is a Fact shown last year, Felix drop down to 12th in thirdbasemen fielding, His lack of range makes it impossible to say he is a great fielder, He is like Harry Kalas said one of the most accurate throwing basemen. He can make the routine play but has trouble going to his left, The thing that I never knew was his average in S.F. mostly 250-260. Is he a better opinion than a minor league ss?. who never play third at the big league level.yes but at his age and dollars would get someone else a shot .
This won’t be resolved until the end of the year. It is hard to believe Feliz has a career year at his age and remains healthy
Then we will KNOW how JD fares.
PP Fan, it is worse reasoning to compare Feliz’s AAA year to what I *think* Donald might do for a full year at AAA, or to compare Feliz’s AAA year to what Donald has done so far (small sample size). It is much better reasoning to compare full samples at the same level of competition. No rose colored glasses here, just comparing apples to apples. You’re right, the age difference was not that significant. And no, I do not think Donald will have an SLG of 571 at AAA. However, I do think that his OBP will be higher than .337 (Feliz’s at AAA).
LarryM, Feliz was an exceptional fielder in 2006 and 2007, but not in 2008. I wasn’t able to find too many advanced fielding stats all that quickly, but his Total Fielding Runs Above Average per 1,250 innings in 2006: 15.3, 2007: 17.1, 2008: 6.3. Also, his Range Factor per 9 innings in 2006: 2.93 (league average 3B of 2.69), 2007: 2.91 (2.68), 2008: 2.72 (2.60). He was certainly better than average in 2008, but not exceptional. You’re right that not all SSs can play 3B, and no one knows how Donald will handle 3B, but I think it is likely he will be able to be a league average defender there (for reasons mentioned previously). He will also be much cheaper, so I would rather have a similar player for much cheaper.
Perhaps a better question is where does he have more value to the Phils – as trade bait as an average defensive SS with (potentially) above average hitting ability, or as a replacement at 3B for Feliz? I think it depends on what the Phils are able to do with the money they save on Feliz. It also depends on his perceived ability at SS – I think most comments I’ve heard outside this board are that he would only be an MLB SS starter at a mediocre-to-bad MLB team. Hence his value as trade bait would not be that high.
John,
Well, I was being civil, but given your lack of same and lack of reading comprehension, forget it. Exceptional defense is what I said, you moron. You’re the dumbest person on the board, and have the grammar abilities of a 4 year old.
Boston Phan,
All very reasonable; my quible would be regarding defense, in that I wouldn’t put as much stock as you are in year to year variations. Still, he is 34.
To maybe clarify a bit, I certainly don’t think that Donald would be a significant downgrade. As an interim solution, meh. But more than half of the people here seem to be projecting him as a long term regular at 3rd – or even in some cases as a star – which is absurd. If the Phillies see him that way, my worry is that they will avoid looking for a better third base solution. Your last paragraph also reminds us that he has value as trade bait. I realize that many of the people who post here hate the thought of any of our precious prospects being traded, but that’s where I see most of his value.
One thing to take into account with Feliz’s defense in 2008 was that he was struggling with a back injury for much of the year (hence the off-season back surgery). No doubt that was a significant contributor to his drop in fielding measureables.
****i was agreeing with you Nepp. chastizing others for ignoring the #1 characteristic of Youk. it is silly to compare Youk to JD. not even close***
Sorry, sometimes its hard to tell on internet threads.
I saw Donald’s first game as a 3B in Allentown, and he has a lot of work to do to learn the position. Not a lot of balls coming his way, but an error and a bad throw that forced the 1B to stretch to tag the runner — nice play by the 1B. It is likely he can learn to play 3B, but he likely needs a lot of practice. In a year’s experiment, the Phillies decided that Utley couldn’t make it. Donald? Chances of becoming better defensively than Feliz not great. He likely works at 3B for the Phillies next year because of the bats elsewhere and his determination to learn the position. He should be asked to play a lot at 3B this season. The transition is not a gimmee.
NEPP Says:
May 5, 2009 at 9:28 am
****i was agreeing with you Nepp. chastizing others for ignoring the #1 characteristic of Youk. it is silly to compare Youk to JD. not even close***
Below is Youks write up from Baseball America comparing him to Bill Muellar, a light hitting 3B.
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3b
Age: 25. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 210.
Drafted: Cincinnati, 2001 (8th round).
Signed by: Matt Haas.
Background: Youkilis already has exceeded expectations for an eighth-round senior sign. In 2003 alone, he played in the Futures Game, led the Eastern League in on-base percentage, finished third in the minors with an overall .441 OBP and reached base in 71 consecutive games.
Strengths: Nicknamed “the Greek god of walks” in “Moneyball,” Youkilis is an on-base machine. His controlled, line-drive approach frustrates pitchers. An intensive workout regimen last offseason has helped make him into an average defender and a decent athlete.
Weaknesses: Despite Youkilis’ plate discipline, he has yet to show much power. He drove the ball more often after adjusting his hands toward the end of his tenure at Double-A Portland, but reverted to his previous form once he slumped at Pawtucket. Pitchers exploited Youkilis’ patience there, so he’ll have to get more aggressive earlier in the count. He’s a below-average runner.
The Future: Often compared to Bill Mueller, Youkilis eventually will have to unseat the defending AL batting champion to win Boston’s third-base job. He’s ticketed for a return to Triple-A in 2004.
Does that sound like the guy who barely got beat out for MVP last year?
Why must we prejudge this situation with JD. He may flop or turn out so we good he will make Don Money squirm.
I love to project guys in A or even AA, here the answer will be in our face and on two fields. And for God sake stop getting personal, no one is writing there thesis on this site
chit lol their
Boston Phan,
To further clarify on the trade bait issue, if it is true that “he would only be an MLB SS starter at a mediocre-to-bad MLB team,” it seems particularly silly to project him as a MLB 3B starter on a good team. Stated another way, if his trade value is low, then it’s a decent sign that he isn’t going to amount to much for the Phillies either. Unless he isn’t being evaluated fairly by other teams, which is always possible, but I don’t see that as likely in this case.
Hey Larry how about we let the kid play baseball.
**Below is Youks write up from Baseball America comparing him to Bill Muellar, a light hitting 3B.**
“light hitting”? Are you serious? he has a career .291 ba and .373 ob%. the year that was written, Muellar hit .328 with a near .400 ob% and won the silver slugger award. true, he wasn’t a power guy, but i think that it is a stretch to call him light hitting.
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Boston Phan – comparing Feliz’s AAA to Donald’s AA is a benefit to Donald. the key thing you are missing is that players (mostly) have worse stats as they move up a level. feliz hit .300 with 33 hr in AAA as a 25 year old. you have seen what his production has been in the bigs.
PP Fan, I’ve only compared Feliz’s AA stats to Donald’s AA stats. I haven’t compared Feliz’s AAA stats to anything. If I were to compare Feliz’s AAA stats to anything, it would be to his performance in AA and in the majors. The AAA production looks like an anomaly to me. He has a 721
whoops! He has a 721 OPS in the bigs.
Larry, I think that’s the crux of the problem – is he being fairly evaluated? Obviously I think not, which of course does not mean I’m right. But I think his track record and what I’ve heard about his fielding points to him being a useful major leaguer while he’s cheap. I’ve seen Keith Law’s opinion on him improve some, so there’s one at least!
nowheels, you’re right that the only way to know the answer is to watch it play out on the field over the rest of the season. However, I rather enjoy some spirited debate on the topic. I hope I have not come across as getting personal, because that was not my intent.
nowheels,
Well, sure, but kind of ironic after over 80 comments overall – including several by you – about his potential. If we take your advice to heart, we wouldn’t have much to say in these threads, would we? Or are you saying we are only allowed to make positive observations about him?
Nothing would make me happier than being proved wrong on Donald. I just don’t consider it likely.
BostonPhan – you really missed my point. but i am not going to repeat the point.
PP Fan Says:
May 5, 2009 at 11:51 am
**Below is Youks write up from Baseball America comparing him to Bill Muellar, a light hitting 3B.**
“light hitting”? Are you serious? he has a career .291 ba and .373 ob%. the year that was written, Muellar hit .328 with a near .400 ob% and won the silver slugger award. true, he wasn’t a power guy, but i think that it is a stretch to call him light hitting.
Maybe I have this wrong, but I thought “light hitting” means no “power”. Bill Muellar=no power
Muellar was a great guy to have up with the game on the line
Larry u r astickinthe mud. you dont have anything good to say about anyone, I consider your raff a compliment
All I said is Feliz is doing better than expected for now. Therefore it is a timeout which you also need.
larry get a grip on yourself man i realize its only been two weeks since the release but medication is available try some warm milk and cookies and tomorrow will shine anew.
seriously ive been on this site for over a year than two weeks ago you show up posting personal attacks,goodbye larry no more.
John,
(1) Read your last post to me.
(2) Look in a mirror.
c’mon Larry loosen up and have some fun.