Here is a graphic depicting the individual lists sent to me, compared with the Community List we cranked out. In the next few weeks I’m going to organize a new page at the top of the site to keep track of all of the Phillies prospect lists from this offseason, as well as our community list, and can compare as the season progresses. It should be interesting. I’m still working on my list, and hopefully I’ll have it done over the next few weeks, but time will be short over the holidays, so we’ll see. Anyway, here’s the graphic. If the image is too large or too small to properly see on your monitor, click here.
Looking at the list, it made me realize we have 3 guys in the top ten that have names that start with “Car”.
Nothing to do with the list just wanted to point out that Golson has been hot of lately in Arizona. He’s hitting .444 in his last 6 games and has his season average up to .269
No way should Drabek be in the top 5. He wasn’t showing much before he was hurt, now he must come back from TJS. Even if he regains form it will take at least a year. Outman at this point is way ahead of him.
Of course Outman is way ahead of him. The two key questions are how good they can be in the end as a ceiling and the probability of reaching or approaching that ceiling. Outman certainly wins hands down on question 2 being in AA last year and healthy. Drabek wins question 1 and probably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our minors. How you balance 1 and 2 is subjective, but the Phillies have very few potential impact players and Drabek is one. He’ll certainly be a couple year longer wait than Outman.
This is probably a real naive question, but…hey…I’m real naive about this. How come Javon Moran doesn’t appear on anybody’s list and hasn’t been covered here at all? Is he a career minor leaguer, or what? Someone in the Phils’ organization must like him for some reason. They traded him then took him back in another trade.
Moran is a fringe guy right now, probably a 4th OF at best. He was two years too old for AA this year, but his numbers were decent.
Thanks. I get the picture — a Chris Roberson clone.
I agree with Allentown in regards to Drabek. Obviously Outman is closer to the majors but when you look at both of them and ask who has the chance to be that team changing pitcher I think it justifies having Drabek that high on everyone’s list.
I agree there. Outman’s control and command are big issues, and he’s still very raw, in the pitching sense. Drabek was pitching well, as a 19 year old in full season ball, before hurting his elbow. When he comes back, I think he’s going to be fine, and in 3 years, I think people will consider him one of the best pitching prospects in the minors, as long as his off the field stuff is truly in his past.
It’s not like Drabek has had the success of a Savery in college or Outman has had in the minors. Drabek could return from his TJS like Zack Segovia.
Another interesting list would be who is not on any of the Top 30 lists and may have been overlooked such as Carlos Mastererios who has a 1.35 ERA after 20 innings pitching in the VWL, Tuffy Gosewisch who looked good catching Joe Savery in an AFL game, Michael Taylor who has some power but was playing in a big ball park, Andrew Cruse who has been up and down in the HWL. Or who might surprise us if given a chance to play more such as a Joel Naughton a rare lefthanded hitting catcher in the organization.
Well, no disrespect, but Drabek’s stock was higher coming out of high school than both Savery and Outman. Drabek was considered the top prep right hander based purely on talent, it was his off the field stuff that allowed him to slide to us. Savery was a highly regarded prospect before going to Rice, but not as high as Drabek. Drabek was in the high 90′s in high school with a plus breaking ball. Pitchers generally don’t lose velocity after TJ. Segoiva was 91-92 before surgery, if I remember correctly, and then dropped down to 88-90. That is far less common than guys regaining their previous velo, and in many cases, because of the rigorous rehab, they actually gain a tick or two of arm strength.
Drabek was putting up solid numbers for a 19 year old in Low A before the injury. He turns 20 in December. If he’s back pitching this summer, he’ll still be ahead of Savery, in terms of development. Savery will be 22 in 2008 and likely only one level ahead of Drabek.
For Rickey Branch- If you want someone who is a real “darkhorse” or might be next years Mike Zagurski check out Matt German. Apparently he wasn’t even drafted out of N.Illinois where he was a relief pitcher, but based on only 35 ings at Williamsport and Lakewood he had 46Ks,1.7GO/FO and a 1.54 ERA, and he’s a lefty. Someone worth looking into next season. Does anybody know anything about this guy?
Supposedly his fastball tops out around 82 or 83. Not a good sign for someone as big as he is.
I think the fact that Outman is a lefty makes him a better prospect at this point than Drabek. I think both Outman and Savery project as solid threes.
I think German is an older player with a quirky delivery that can keep inexperienced hitters off balance. Zagurski has/had real stuff that is well suited to relieving (low 90s fastball/slider). German should get fast tracked to Clearwater, but I am not expecting much (he turns 24 next year so he won’t be young for Clearwater).
The guy from last year’s draft that apparently has a chance to move quickly and be a dark horse bullpen candidate would be Brian Schlitter. He apparently has a fastball that reaches the mid 90s and sits in the low 90s.
I noticed someone actually placed Cardenas as #1. My question to everyone/anyone is if he was a better defensive 2nd baseman, let’s say above average at that position, would he be our #1 or at least make it an arguement for the top spot or is Carrasco so cemented there?
Thanks.
I think he does become our #1 if he was a better glove.