I certainly hope you aren’t trying to insinuate anything negative about my “cherry-picking” of stats, seeing as how I openly said that was what I was doing at the time – in fact, that was my own word. But “cherry-picking,” by the way, is not necessarily an invalid use of statistics. It’s only invalid insofar as you represent “cherry-picked” statistics to be representative of what’s typical. But that wasn’t what I was doing. I was citing them to show what was *possible*, and for that purpose it’s an entirely valid use of statistics. Especially considering that I cited eight different examples, all of active major-league starting third basemen (of whom there are only 30 total). If I had expanded my sample to include seasons in which active major-league third basemen put up error rates that were lower, but only marginally lower, than Costanzo’s current rate, I could have doubled my sample. I can prove it if you want me to. And all of this assumes that Costanzo is going to keep making errors at the same rate for the rest of the season, which seems to me to be a dubious assumption, considering that he had a much lower error rate last season, and considering that his errors have declined significantly in each month of this season. (He committed an astronomical 11 errors in the first month of the season, which is, of course, terrible, but is such an outlier compared to both last season and the last two months this season, that it’s reasonable to tentatively assume that it was a fluke.)

Regarding the substance of your last comment, I can’t say I understand it. Why would a third base platoon necessarily any different from an outfield platoon? Could it be that the reason why you see so many more outfield platoons is that there are three times as many outfield positions on each team as there are third basemen? And also, as with fielding, it’s not as if there haven’t been hitters who couldn’t hit lefthanded pitching but learned how to over time. That’s what the minor leagues are for.

Anyway, the point is that I could grant you every factual claim you make, and I’d still think you were wrong on your conclusion. Even if he can’t field and can’t hit LHP, the time to move him to the outfield would be after we’ve completely exhausted any possibility that he could learn how. Which hasn’t happened yet – he’s still going to be in the minors for another season and a half, at the very least.

I do like the blog, by the way, so I hope you’re not taking anything personally. I enjoy vigorous debate. I know that’s not everybody’s style.

Ron (Lower Marion, PA): Kevin, the Phillies are hoping Mike Costanzo can become their everyday third baseman in 2009. With his propensity to strikeout, what are the chances of him manning the position for the long term. Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: Even ignoring the strikout issues for a second (which is very hard to do, the guy has 97 whiffs in 273 at-bats), what about the errors. He’s got 23 already this year and he’s pretty bad defensively. Despite the power surge, you’re doing some dreaming on him if you want to think of him as a projected starter right now.

The focus of my post was his batting splits, not his defense. He can’t hit lefties. He has no track record of hitting left handers in pro ball. College statistics are nearly meaningless and can’t really be translated to pro ball. He has not hit lefties at all, and moreover, he doesn’t even draw walks at a high enough clip against lefties. I don’t really think we need to see him hit .180 for an entire year in the majors against lefties to know he can’t hit them.

Because of this, I asked if it was realistic to think he can play 3B in the majors. How many teams can you think of use a platoon at 3B in the major leagues? It just doesn’t happen unless one guy is a superior defender and the other guy is a masher who can’t field. The Phillies have a half-assed platoon with Nunez and Dobbs/Helms, but that’s not even a platoon, it’s “all our options kind of stink, pick a guy who can field” situation.

You cherry-picked a handful of seasons involving big leaguers who had high error totals in the minors, and most of the players were younger for their level than Costanzo is for AA. I haven’t given up hope that he can be a productive major leaguer. I simply am of the opinion that he won’t be a productive major leaguer at 3B, and that he’s not going to hit lefties. Guys like Utley and Howard hit lefties in the minors, and struggled at first to hit them in the majors. Costanzo can’t hit minor league mercenary lefties now, he isn’t going to hit guys like Oliver Perez in the majors.

Obviously, 12 throwing errors leaves a lot of room for improvement, but it hardly seems like an unsolveable problem.

Here’s what else I know. I know that last season, Costanzo had a much lower error rate. The end-of-year fielding stats for Clearwater appear to be unavailable, but at midseason he was leading Florida State League third basemen in fielding percentage at .955. That might not sound very high, but it just goes to show you that fielding percentages are depressed everywhere in the minors. I also know that his errors have declined in every month this year. I also know that he put up a .972 fielding percentage during his last year in college.

More generally, I’d appreciate it if you would respond to the comment I actually left. I didn’t say the Phillies can’t ever move Costanzo to right field. I said that his minor league stats alone do not justify that move at this stage of his career. If he later proves conclusively that he needs to move, he can do it then. Corner outfield is an easy position to learn. Many players have made that switch between seasons of their major league career.

Yes, the allowances one would make for Costanzo in fielding are on a sliding scale with how well he hits. Since we don’t know yet how well he’s going to hit, it’s a bit premature to pass judgment on how well he’ll need to field. If Costanzo ends up being significantly worse at the plate than Casey Blake, he’ll have bigger things to worry about than his fielding.

As for “maximizing the value of prospects”, that’s best accomplished by playing guys at more difficult positions, not less difficult ones. An improved Costanzo at 3B is far more valuable than a Costanzo in RF. If we ever see firsthand proof that Costanzo can’t improve, then we can move him to RF then. Throwing in the towel right now makes no sense.