Today is the day we’ve been waiting for. The rumors continue to circulate. Will we take a Boras guy if he drops? Will we go above slot at 19? Will it be a bat or an arm? So many questions, so few answers at this point, but that’s what makes this so exciting. I’ll post the complete draft order for the first round and the supplemental round, and I’ll update it as the picks come off the board. If you’ve got a rumor, or just any thought you’d like to share, put it here, we’ll use this post to discuss all of today’s action. Here is a recap of all of the pre-draft writings, and here is today’s draft order:
01. Tampa Bay –
02. Kansas City –
03. Chicago Cubs –
04. Pittsburgh –
05. Baltimore –
06. Washington –
07. Milwaukee –
08. Colorado –
09. Arizona –
10. San Francisco –
11. Seattle –
12. Florida –
13. Cleveland –
14. Atlanta –
15. Cincinnati –
16. Toronto-
17. Texas –
18. St Louis –
19. Philadelphia –
20. Los Angeles Dodgers –
21. Toronto –
22. San Francisco –
23. San Diego –
24. Texas –
25. Chicago White Sox –
26. Oakland –
27. Detroit –
28. Minnesota –
29. San Francisco –
30. New York Yankees –
31. Washington –
32. San Francisco –
33. Atlanta –
34. Cincinnati –
35. Texas –
36. St Louis –
37. Philadelphia –
Keith Law updated his projections very early this morning. Some highlights
Ugh. But this just affirms my love for Mattair isn’t completely misguided.
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I hate Burgess. Of course, you never know how he’ll turn out, but there’s gotta be someone a little more polished.
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Last Mock from Mayo
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wow Heyward, Dominguez, or porcello?? Wolever and arbuckle could be so lucky as to have that choice.
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That would be amazing. Clearly I’d love Porcello, but in the realistic bracket, I’d be equally happy with Dominguez or Heyward.
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Baseball Prospectus doing a live round table. Report is that KC will take Moustakas at #2.
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1.1 TBD – David Price
1.2 KCR – Mike Moustakas
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1.3 Cubbies- Vitters
1.4 Pirates- Moskos
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Detwiler should go #5. Moskos being picked at 4 might help us a lot.
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1.5 Orioles – weiters
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1.6 Nationals – Detweiler
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Detwiler at 6.
I think it’s either Amount or Mesoraco to Milwaukee
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1.7 brewers – Laporta
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Wow. LaPorta
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this draft has looked great for the phillies so far
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1.8 rockies – weathers
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This draft couldn’t be falling better for the Phillies. Tons of options on the board yet.
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On the board after 10 picks
Dominguez
Heyward
Mesoraco
Amount
Beaven
Main
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I am loving this draft so far. I think if it comes down the way it has been, we really might be choosing between dominguez, heyward, and porcello or mesoraco
1.11 seattle – Amount
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Damn!! Dominguez goes at 12 to Florida.. This is the kid i really wanted from the beginning
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I was a big Dominguez fan as well. That’s a blow to our draft board. I keep looking at Rick Porcello, and deep down, I know it’s not even a possibility, but I keep holding out a sliver of hope as he slides down the board.
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with the marlins taking dominguez maybe that means there gettin ready for life after cabrera. we can just sign cabrera and be set at third base for 10 years anyway.
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Officially really really woried.
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I agree…. Extremely worried at this point
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Mesoraco was perhaps best of picks frequently linked with Phillies. Not Borbon!
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ah, we’re in good shape now- Aherns and Harvey are both there, but please no Beaven!!! I’m a bit concerned it will be him since his salary demands havn’t been on par with Harvey’s.
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Mesoraco gone, I smell a Burgess pick for the Phils….
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The false hope of “oh, we could have our pick of 6 or 7 guys” is now turned into “man, I really hope we don’t take Burgess or Borbon”
Pray that Toronto and Texas do us a favor.
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things are lookin bad after looking so so so good. I think that we will go for one of the great HS arms that are left. If not, the phillies need a swift kick you know where
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pullease let the rangers take Beaven!!!
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If the Rangers take Harvey, I’ll puke
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Thank goodness, he was the one guy I really didn’t want- aside from the highschool shortstops. This leaves Porcello and Harvey- common magic 8-ball!
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There goes Beaven. A glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
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i love this pick for texas. beaven’s sinker is going to be perfect at arlington.
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Moment of truth Maine, Harvey, and Porcello still there
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Official guess
Matt Harvey.
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Common magic 8-ball!!! Matt Harvey, say it! Matt Harvey!
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Ah crap, Main is still there, no Main, no Main!
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Why no Main?
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come on monty, pay for porcello!
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WHO?!
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Wow, didn’t see that one coming- well, i hear his velocity has improved. I like the pick.
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i like this pick, looks good.
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Give me some details on this guy. Underwhelmed, of course.
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Ok, there it is.
I’m…well…disappointed, but not shocked.
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it could have been much worse, but i don’t particularly like the pick.
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Lefty From rice, recovering from shoulder surgery last year, was highly rated when the season started- good two-way player, velocity was down for much of the year until he started to get back into the 90’s in the last month. Better to get him after the surgery i guess.
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Sounds like he’s got some potential. I really was hoping for Porcello, but I guess that was wishful thinking.
Kevin Goldstein (1:06:10 PM PST): Give credit to Bryan Smith here — he mentioned Savery prior to the pick over IM. I love this pick, and like they said on TV, this is a guy who is a top 15 talent who was hurt this year, and if he comes back, he’s possibly a steal here. I love this pick. Dodgers go next, and they have some high school arms to choose from still with Bumgarner off the board (their favorite). Main? Smoker? Some think Tim Alderson was the backup plan.
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Ok, some more info.
After last season, Savery was a top 5 pick. Then he had surgery, and it was a huge cloud over him. It’s a Cole Hamels type gamble.
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I don’t like taking a Rice pitcher who has already had labrum fraying.
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savery didn’t have a structural problem with his shoulder, or his rotator cuff, he had a torn labrum repaired.
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The good things:
He can hit.
He was limited to 5 innings pitched per outing — his arm hasn’t been abused lately, unlike many other young pitchers.
A high risk/high reward guy, like Hamels and Drabek. The Phils have had some good luck with this kind of thing — unlike their luck with toolsy outfielders.
The Bad:
He’s a Rice pitcher. Bad things happen to those guys for some reason.
He might have been available much later apparently.
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ok, so what good young position players look to be available at 37 and in the 80’s
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It wasn’t a torn labrum, it was preventative surgery to remove part of the bone I believe.
I still am holding out hope for Travis Mattair at 37.
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It wasn’t a torn labrum, it was filing a bone growth that had caused some fraying of the labrum. So there was actual labrum damage.
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There is a difference between baby feeding a HS pick and a college pick to protect his arm. The college guy gets old in A ball rather quickly with this approach and came with a lot more mileage on arm. Hamels’ problem was a broken bone, not labrum. Because of the bone break, Hamels was a very low mileage HS pitcher.
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yeah but apparently allentown, his labrum wasnt in bad shape, it was just a growth on the bone that risked his labrum which means that structurally he is sound
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The injury was not to the labrum- it was a bone problem. The injuries do appear to be on par with each other.
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I don’t feel nearly as bad about the pick now, in fact, I’m fine with it. Huge upside, and similar risk to taking a prep two way guy like Michael Main.
Now, wishlist at 37, based on what’s available
Brett Cecil
Travis Mattair
Josh Smoker
Justin Jackson
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what do you think about matt mangini
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avoid Mangini at all costs.
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any reasons
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wow the tigers are going to have a nasty rotation in a few years.
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No, the injury was to the labrum, which was frayed. A bone spur caused the fraying and the bone spur was removed. But the labrum was frayed, so this is more than simply preventative. It is to prevent FURTHER damage not to avoid damage in the first place.
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Mangini isn’t going to hit, I don’t think. All 4 on the wishlist are still there.
Brett Cecil
Travis Mattair
Josh Smoker
Justin Jackson
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Not quite. If a bone spur is removed because it “is fraying” the labrum, then it means it is in the process of causing an injury. Presumably, if his labrum were injured at that point, then they would have fixed it while they were in there. He probably felt pain in his shoulder, they realized that this bone spur was rubbing against the muscle and so they removed it.
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Show me a link that says his labrum is damaged. Everything I’ve found says that the surgery was done to prevent damage to his labrum.
Side note, Pedro Martinez has pitched with a partially torn labrum since the early 1990’s.
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is there no hope that maybe they could even take Harvey if he is still there?
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Harvey’s tag is $3M, that’s 2-2.2M over slot for the 37th pick. I don’t see any way.
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sure he is a bit over-slot, but by selecting savery they didnt have to do anything drastic i nthe first round and they said they were willing to… let me have a little false hope!
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BA says “had minor surgery to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that WADS CAUSING SOME FRAYING IN HIS LABRUM”. Can’t link, it is subscription.
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Ok, “some fraying” and “damaged labrum” are on opposite ends of the injury spectrum.
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Yes, causing being present tense, the same as “is fraying,” so my earlier comment still applies. In any case, I don’t particularly trust the Phillies but as cheap as they are I have to believe that if they are going to spend first-round money on a player they are going to make damn sure that he isn’t injured. I didn’t mean to sound arrogant or accusatory toward you Allentown, I just think that assuming that a guy has a serious injury without the support is dangerous and from my perspective, no such record exists.
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I think it’s more about the fact that he’s from Rice. Pitchers from Rice don’t have the best track records. But as I said before, at some point, someone has to buck the trend. The Phillies did their homework on Drabek last year, and it looks like they hit it right. Let’s hope for the same this year.
Putting the health factor aside (and it’s a big factor), if he’s healthy, he could be MLB ready by the end of next summer. That’s a pretty big deal. Low-Mid 90’s heat, real good secondary pitches.
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Travis D’arnaud
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thoughts?
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Eh. D’Arnaud is decent I guess. Not surprising, should be a cheap sign.
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adds some depth at catcher i guess, like the catcher at DSL too.
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so far, so blah for the phils. can we please get a good bat?!? dont like the d’arnaud pick at all, all defense with suspect offensive abilities.. isnt that what Lou Marson is for??
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Yep. Thought about it some more. Hate the pick. Should be a cheap sign. Great.
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Travis Mattair is still on the board do you think there is any chance that he will fall to us at 83
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Too much to dream for.
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well i guess that answers my question…….. love it and very surprised he was still there
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I LOVE IT. getting Mattair at 83 might be the steal of the draft so far.
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just a great pick… cant believe he was there at #83!
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So happy to get Mattair, but that isn’t a surprise to anyone who’s been reading my stuff over the last few weeks.
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Also, Jake Arrieta is still there, Angels just took Harvey.
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baltimore got arrietta
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