Comments on: Simon offered back, more on Bourn

By: This and that : Philly Sports Net

This and that : Philly Sports Net — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 03:54:52 +0000

[...] reports on Michael Bourn’s prospects of making the big club out of spring training. [...]

By: dajafi

dajafi — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 18:23:22 +0000

I’d do that deal–you’re right that Rios is more of a bona fide corner OF than Victorino, and he’ll be under his employer’s control pretty much through his peak–but I doubt Toronto would.

By: phuturephillies

phuturephillies — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 16:47:16 +0000

Well, here’s my personal take on it. If Bourn posts an OB% in the .350-.360 range, he has little value, even with his speed and defense. However, if he can put up a .400+ OB% out of the leadoff spot, there is value there. The question is, can he do that? The odds say no, as posting a .400 OB% is rare, but he showed that ability in the lower minors, and he showed he had a great batting eye before something went wrong. His lack of power is a problem, but not if he’s getting on base 40% of the time, and not if you have a solid RF.

That brings me to my next theory……the Phillies should offer Toronto Lieber and Victorino, plus possibly a pitching prospect for Rios. People here really like Victorino, but I really am not ready to believe in him at a corner spot over 162 games. He won’t hit for power either, and I don’t think you can have two light hitting outfielders are out of 3. Bourn in CF, with a quality RF offensively, is a positive value to this team. Rios is largely overrated based on his half season breakout last year, but he’s a plus defender and has potential to be a power bat who hits for good average. Victorino is probably overrated to a degree too though.

Honestly, I have no idea what is going to happen here. I’d rather see Bourn get a shot to be the everyday CF if his plate discipline returns. He’s younger, he’s cheaper for a longer amount of time, and he has more raw speed than Victorino. But we’ll see.

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 15:23:53 +0000

What about just putting Vicorino in CF and platooning Werth and Bourn in RF? I like Bourn, but I think he has a low ceiling due to his total and complete lack of power. He’s a better version of Jason Tyner, at best.

By: dajafi

dajafi — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 19:49:49 +0000

The question to me is if you can gain enough by dealing Rowand that the risk of Bourn being ready is justified. As I wrote at TGP earlier today, my strong hunch is yes, particularly when you consider that even if he flops, you can shift Victorino to CF and probably use the money you've saved by dealing Rowand's contract to get another lefty bat to platoon with Werth in RF.