Comments on: 8 years of #1 draft picks http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/ Phillies Prospects Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:50:41 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: phuturephillies http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-156 Sat, 20 Jan 2007 18:00:08 +0000 http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-156 Interesting stuff, thanks for doing the legwork. Florida has fewer contributors, but Johnson, Olsen and Willingham have potential. Of course, we netted Mathieson and Howard.

]]> By: jgv http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-155 Sat, 20 Jan 2007 16:32:16 +0000 http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-155 Ok, with the assistance of the Baseball Cube, I took this comparison up to 2002 (stopping there because the verdict on more recent drafts may still be out).

This is every player drafted in the third round or later (and signed) by an NL East team from 1997-2002 that has since seen time in the majors:

ATL Bryan McCann, Chuck James, Adam Stern, Kyle Davies, Anthony Lerrew, Blaine Boyer, Zack Miner, Charles Thomas, Adam Laroche, Andrew Brown, Ben Koslowski, John Foster, Nick Green, Scott Sobkowiak, John Ennis, Tim Spooneybarger, Mike Perez, Brad Voyles, Cory Aldridge, Horacio Ramirez, Danny Wright

FLA Ross Gload, Matt Erickson, Dave Callahan, Kevin Olsen, Josh Willingham, Chris Resop, Jeff, Fulchino, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Eric Reed, Travis Chick

MON Bryan Hebsom, T.J. Tucker, Talmadge Nunnari, Scott Strickland, Matt Blank, Luis Rivera, Jim Serrano, Matt Cepicky, Brandon Watson, Val Pascucci, Matt Watson, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Shawn Hill, Phil Seibel, Jason Bay, Anthony Ferrari, Josh Lanandeira, Chad Bentz, Chris Schroder, Darrell Rasner, Mike O’Connor, Jay Bergmann

NYM Cesar Crespo, Eric Cammack, Jason Roach, Jason Phillips, Craig Brazell, Ty Wiggington,Jaime Cerda, Earl Snyder, Jeremy Griffiths, Angel Pagan, Prentice Redman, Mike Jacobs, Jeff Duncan, Lenny DiNardo, Danny Garcia, Joe Hietpas

PHI Derrick Turnbow, Johnny Estrada, Andy Dominique, Jason Michaels, Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Nick Punto, Marlon Byrd, Frank Brooks, Taylor Buchholz, Carlos Rivera, Travis Chapman, Chris Roberson, Ryan Howard, Scott Mathieson.

I think the Phillies come out of this comparison looking pretty good. The only NL East team that might be better is Montreal– but the good players they drafted (Bay, Sizemore, Lee) have moved on to other teams.

There’s a couple big names in there, and a handful of ok players, but given that this represents 30 drafts (5 teams, 6 years) it’s striking how few good major leaguers emerged from the lower rounds.

]]> By: jgv http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-151 Fri, 19 Jan 2007 05:06:52 +0000 http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-151 What makes some of those drafts painful, however, is that after getting past the second round, we’d find one decent player in 15 rounds.

I wonder how unusual this is though. What percentage of post-second-round picks actually make significant contributions in the majors? I bet it’s very low.

Looking at the post-second-round picks signed by all the other NL East teams in 1997, it appears that the following players made it to the majors:

FLA Ross Gload, Matt Erickson
ATL Horacio Ramirez, Danny Wright
NYM Cesar Crespo, Eric Cammack, Jason Roach, Jason Phillips
MON Bryan Hebson, T.J. Tucker, Talmadge Nunnari, Scott Strickland, Matt Blank, Luis Rivera
PHI Derrick Turnbow, Johnny Estrada, Andy Domininque

That’s every single post-2nd-round pick that made it to the majors. Not a star in the bunch, only a few decent players, and a whole lot of dreck.

Moving on to 1998, the following post-2nd-round picks from that draft made the majors:

ATL: Scott Sobkowiak, John Ennis, Tim Spooneybarger, Brad Voyles
FLA: Dave Callahan, Kevin Olsen
NYM: Craig Brazell, Ty Wiggington,Jaime Cerda, Earl Snyder
MON: Jim Serrano
PHI: Geoff Geary, Nick Punto, Ryan Madson, Jason Michaels.

The Phillies pretty much dominated their division in the lower rounds in 1998.

We’d have to do this exercise for more years to be sure, but based on what I’ve seen so far I’m dubious that the Phillies were any less successful overall in the lower rounds than any other team in the division over this 8-year span.

]]> By: GKit http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-145 Thu, 18 Jan 2007 03:24:09 +0000 http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-145 You gave Golson an asterisk but he was a first round pick #23.

]]> By: olgrandad http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-144 Thu, 18 Jan 2007 02:33:18 +0000 http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/17/8-years-of-1-draft-picks/#comment-144 A’town makes very good points, and you responded well. Another factor to consider is where we
were in the draft. Because of our low finishes, generally speaking, we had better opportunities because of being higher in the draft order.

]]>